JPeso
Footballguy
I like Fuller but have a tough time giving an unknown 1st for him. Engram in the second deal, lopsided.
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****OFFICIAL DYNASTY TRADES**** (19 Viewers)
- Thread starter Gottabesweet
- Start date
JPeso
Footballguy
jeaton6
Footballguy
Pwingles
Footballguy
I could go either way on the first one. If it ends up being a top 5 pick, I think thats a winner.
This second deal is just silly. In a league where you arent required to start a TE and have to start at least 2 RB, I still take the Engram side.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Agreed - I just can't see the motivation on the other side. Lewis is a solid producer when healthy but his upside is likely capped and he's 28. Graham is all but done. How in the world did some one need to add a second to Engram in that deal?
Hu-Tang Clan
Footballguy
Team A: 1.01 5.01
Team B: 1.02, 1.08, 1.10, 4.02
Team B: 1.02, 1.08, 1.10, 4.02
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Pwingles
Footballguy
If the 1.10 pick was mine, and i was presumably a contender, id do this all day for the 1.01, if my team was middling I think id take the package
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Non-PPR hurts Cooper's value but it also hurts the 1.07. By 1.07 in a non-PPR the RBs are going to be picked clean so at that point you're likely looking at a WR that will be a much worse prospect than Cooper is.
You're probably looking at a 3rd-4th round non-PPR startup pick (Cooper) vs. a ~8th round non-PPR startup pick (the 2nd best WR of this class).
For what it's worth, the league is a 2/4/Flex, so the mandatory start-2 at RB does bump Lewis in value somewhat.
I'd still favor the Engram side, but settings do come into play here.
joey
Footballguy
shorter rosters, I prefer the 1.1.
contender, I prefer the 1.1.
rebuilding, it's a toss up but I might take the 1.2 side depending on the rest of my roster. but even then, the ability to grab a "consensus" top 10 dynasty start up RB in Barkley with the 1.1 will certainly give the rebuilding team something great to build on.
Punch
Footballguy
I think this worked out great for both of us. I already have cook, freeman and Mixon and was runner up last year. He is in a full blown rebuild and needs the pieces. I'm interested to see what the consensus is but I think its pretty even.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
-OZ-
Footballguy
Fairly even, figure from my rough estimate, that's Barkley for Guice, Jones and Washington. The 11 and 2.1 could be the same player. Can't really blame either side right now.
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ghostguy123
Footballguy
I have 2/4/7 in a league and would never ever consider giving that for pick 1. 2/4 would be a maybe
It’s more like 3 picks because there is a negligible difference between 1.11 and 2.1
Punch
Footballguy
Swinging for the fences, I guess. It was Bloom's comment that he would pay the 1.2/1.3/1.4 for Barkley that pushed me over the edge I think. Hyperbole? Maybe. But were talking about an asset that's already being put in to the top ten of startups and the owner was hesitant to move him. 1.1 value only going to go up over the next few months, especially after he blows up the combine. Scouts like him better than Gurley and Zeke.
Punch
Footballguy
That's how I looked at it. I thought the visual of 1.11 for 2.1 would look better than it really is. Like pricing a car at $9995 instead of $10000.
NeverEnough
Footballguy
Wow. That is a haul for the 1.1. If a contender, I can see giving all that, but not sure I could do it. I own the 1.1 in a league that I won last year (Traded Rodgers for Goff + the 1.1 mid season) I might have to shop it, damn.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I completely disagree that the value of pick 1 relative to the other top picks will INCREASE in the next couple months
Punch
Footballguy
Maybe not, but is there anyone else in this class that has the potential to be the 1.1 in startups a year from now?
-OZ-
Footballguy
You're probably right. The only way his value goes any higher imo is if people love his destination. Maybe Denver or if somehow he lands in San Fran.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
It could if he completely blows up the combine. He runs a 4.3x and kills the jumping events, he’ll be even more immortal imo.
-OZ-
Footballguy
You mean people would trade Zeke and Bell plus for him?
ETA: if you mean relative to other picks I still don't think so.
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ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
Obv not, but i'd give up Zeke or Bell for 1.01 straight up. Zeke due to bonehead issues and Bell due to being significantly older than Barkley and his own bonehead/injury issues.
You mean people would trade Zeke and Bell plus for him?
-OZ-
Footballguy
That's pretty much my point. We're expecting him to dominate in the combine. I don't think the pick/Barkley can get to be worth more than he is already, when guys who are good ff players are already valuing him as the #2 or even 1 RB, before the combine or we know where he's playing next year.
I honestly don't remember a RB having this much hype before the draft since Bo Jackson.
ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
Agree with that. Barkley is basically valued as a top 3 overall fantasy player. there isn't much upside to that..but sometimes there is a big difference between the top few players. Personally i just like the safety of Barkley's character and he's as talented and younger than all the other RB's in the NFL.
Huge downside to that line of thought though. It's possible he's a knucklehead and we just don't know it yet. Or he might not be as good as most think.
Trading a Zeke or Bell for him is extremely risky, but i like taking chances.
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Punch
Footballguy
I should have been more clear. His value may or may not go up over the next couple of months relative to other prospects in the draft, but that's debatable. I think it will after he blows up the combine but I can see the flipside of that where people are already assuming that he will blow it up, and that its already factored into his current valuation. I get it. The point that I was trying to add on to that is Barkley has the potential to be the 1.1 in startups in year or two, or pretty darn close. He's already in the top ten for most. At the very least, he has the potential to be the dynasty RB1 a year from now. He's that talented. My question to you was: do you believe any of the of the other prospects in this draft have that kind of potential? My answer to that is no and that he IS that much better than the other players in this draft, hence my aggressive pitch to get him on my team.ghostguy123 said:
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jeaton6
Footballguy
This is a 15 keeper league. Neither team is all that bad. They each earned 1.1 and 1.2. Team that traded for the 1.2 and Picks has Wentz, Cook, Howard, Green, Cobb, Kupp, Kelce. Team that traded for 1.1 has DJ, OBJ, Martavis, Agholor, Mike Williams.Pwingles said:
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ghostguy123
Footballguy
I am putting this chances that Barkley is not as good as most think at about 95%.ILUVBEER99 said:
bostonfred
Footballguy
I'll give it 95% that he's as good as they think or worse, and about 70% that he's not as good as most think.
And he'd need to be better than most think to be worth some of these trades.
If he lands in SF, I think he'll easily live up to the value of the trades. I mean, look at Hyde's numbers. The team was horrible last year. All he'd have to do is see a marginal increase in efficiency and touchdowns to jump into the top 3. Same could be said if he replaced Gore's role with Indy, but with more receptions and Luck at around 80%. The prices I'm seeing are reasonable for a 21 year old top 3 RB. He'll have a bit of an uphill battle for the first season if he lands in Cleveland, but if they find some decent QB play, it's reasonably attainable.
One More Rep
Footballguy
The team that bought the 1.02 also has the 1.1, 1.07, 1.10, 1.11, 1.12, 2.01, 2.02 picks this year so they could afford to give up the extra pick
Zyphros
Footballguy
These are ridiculous. I don't care if I'm a contender or whatever, I can get better value in almost any other way than going for Barkley. I love me some Barkley, but there are 3-4 other guys in this years draft, that realistically have a good/better chance to outproduce him. Give me 2 of those and 2 other dart throws that have that chance too to fill out my roster and I can trade them in a year when Barkley is a Brown and underproducing than those other 3 I made 1st round picks with.Punch said:
Aunt Jemima
Footballguy
this is interesting, 2 sort of uncertain players, where does Graham end up? can he put up numbers again? Getting old and Ebron was the flash at the end of the year him finally hitting his stride or is it more of the inconsistency we've seen thus far in his short career? I guess for me I'll gamble on Ebron but it is close, the picks don't matter much
Aunt Jemima
Footballguy
I don't disagree it is expensive but if Barkley winds up a perennial top 3 rb as lots of people expect it seems fair to me. Depending on the drafter their is a decent chance you whiff at pick 5 or 7 and get a decent guy, not a superstar. As far as 3 or 4 other guys in this draft that will out produce him?? What are you smoking, I need to get me some of that
bostonfred
Footballguy
bostonfred
Footballguy
Who are the other guys you think can out produce Barkley? Guice Chubb Sony penny Ronald Jones?
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
The trade is essentially 1.05 and 1.07 to move up from 1.02 to 1.01.
Here are the players that went 1.05 and 1.07 the last few years via ADP.
DeVante Parker
TJ Yeldon
Jordan Matthews
Davante Adams
Sterling Shepard
Derrick Henry
Dalvin Cook
Mike Williams
Some fine names in there for sure, but I think people are romanticizing the likelihood of those picks being big difference makers a bit. Not a ton of names in there that would be big pieces to a deal involving a top 3 dynasty asset if that is indeed what Barkley becomes, and at least one of them (Adams) was likely given up on by most that drafted him before he turned it around.
Here are the players that went 1.05 and 1.07 the last few years via ADP.
DeVante Parker
TJ Yeldon
Jordan Matthews
Davante Adams
Sterling Shepard
Derrick Henry
Dalvin Cook
Mike Williams
Some fine names in there for sure, but I think people are romanticizing the likelihood of those picks being big difference makers a bit. Not a ton of names in there that would be big pieces to a deal involving a top 3 dynasty asset if that is indeed what Barkley becomes, and at least one of them (Adams) was likely given up on by most that drafted him before he turned it around.
:X
Yeah, NYG is pretty much worst case scenario, IMO, for Barkley. But as a dynasty player, I wouldn't be super bummed if he goes there because that just increases my odds of being able to buy low in 12 months...
If I traded a king's ransom for him, I'd be
if he went to NYG, though. I mean, I guess it could be ok long term, but I don't like their odds. Eli was never that good and now he's old. The OL is garbage. That rebuild is going to take a few years. But I keep hearing rumblings that no NFL teams have Barkley in their top 5 and even if they did, there might be teams trading into the top 5 for QBs. So he really could slip. I'm not sure I'd be that ecstatic about Tampa. Their OL isn't that good and Winston wasn't looking too sharp.
NeverEnough
Footballguy
& here we have a viable argument for trading down from the 1.1. I'm going to shop the 1.1 where I have it just to see what sort of haul I could get.:X
Yeah, NYG is pretty much worst case scenario, IMO, for Barkley. But as a dynasty player, I wouldn't be super bummed if he goes there because that just increases my odds of being able to buy low in 12 months...
If I traded a king's ransom for him, I'd be
I'm not faulting anyone for trading up or trading back. It's all about team need and risk/reward.
It was kind of an out of no where trade as in I got offer out of the blue and just accepted. Interesting trade as well in that these were two best teams last year and easy top favorites this year and this league has been around since 2013 and this is the first trade I've ever made with the other team, first offer I can recall but might have forgot.
You are right picks don't matter and I almost just left it out.
I don't see anything differently than how you see it. Graham could end up someplace attractive, in fact I would phrase it as he should. ESPN threw out Baltimore last week, this weekend Hopkins was tweeting out images of Graham in a Texans jersey, maybe returning to Miami or the Saints is a consideration. All those good spots plus several more and I tend to think odds are he'll land someplace attractive. But he ended the season horribly and he'll turn 32 next season. He could pull out another good year or two but it's possible he's just fading and last season was the beginning of the cliff fall that a change of scenery won't stop.
Ebron flashed, looked better than he ever has to end the season, I'd guess weeks 11-16 was his best 6 game stretch of his career but even during that stretch he only broke 30 snaps once. Targets mean more than snaps but it's a little discouraging that no other way around fact he's part time player even after he was playing best football of his career. Not sure that changes next season, I tend to think not and I don't think EE is happy about it either. No guarantee yet he returns to Lions next year, EE said he was not sure but Quinn said back in January he was returning. But in terms of his future if he's not used like a full time TE I think it's safe to say next year is his last in Detriot.
In the end the big plus for Graham was his proven production and major durability plus, with the broken leg only thing that led him to miss more than one game. But Ebron's youth could not be ignored, he's 1.5 years older than OJ Howard, and in the second half of the season he looked better than Graham.
Good post. A lot of people look at last year and think trading down will net them the next Hunt, Kamara, JuJu or Engram but there are more misses than hits in that area of the draft.
