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****OFFICIAL 2021 IN- SEASON DYNASTY TRADES****


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11 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I really don't think they intend to trade him. Tag and trade is technically not allowed anymore by the CBA I believe, though of course teams can try and skirt around it by claiming they intended to keep the player but got an offer they couldn't refuse. Still it's probably more trouble than it's worth for what they could get for landry at this point. 

Regarding cap space the fins haven't done their cap clearing moves yet, which are expected to be substantial. They're going to try and restructure Suh and Tannehill as well as likely cut Julius Thomas and Ja'wan James among others. Those 4 moves alone could free up 50-60 million in cap space. 

I like your optimism, but no, those 4 moves won't free up nearly that much space. Those four players currently combine for a $61.841MM cap hit. Cutting JT and James will save $13.941MM. But Suh and Tannehill will still be on the team and their cap hits will be significant. Restructuring won't be able to reduce their cap hits from $45.9MM down to less than a third of that. And whatever they do will just make their 2019 situation worse.

I'm guessing those four moves free up maybe $25-30MM.

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2 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

I like your optimism, but no, those 4 moves won't free up nearly that much space. Those four players currently combine for a $61.841MM cap hit. Cutting JT and James will save $13.941MM. But Suh and Tannehill will still be on the team and their cap hits will be significant. Restructuring won't be able to reduce their cap hits from $45.9MM down to less than a third of that. And whatever they do will just make their 2019 situation worse.

I'm guessing those four moves free up maybe $25-30MM.

and keeping Tannehill on the books any longer than they need to is a big mistake.

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19 hours ago, barackdhouse said:

For most of or large portions of last year, most of my flex spots were used by starters like Larry Fitzgerald, Juju, Hunt*, Funchess, Marvin Jones, Woods.  But I also started a number of TEs in the flex, like Ertz, ASJ, Kittle a couple times.  I certainly would have preferred Doyle a number of different weeks.  Not over Ertz of course.  Asterisk for Hunt because I drafted him everywhere but only one team where I could use him in the flex.

I am looking at my rosters and I have them cut down to 16 right now on paper.  And I'm not seeing who I would cut, theoretically, to make room for Doyle, in 3 out of the 4 I listed above.  Plus I don't necessarily think he will repeat the kind of success he had last year.  Many other owners in these leagues share the view that TEs don't repeat so well sometimes, and TEs are in fact difficult to move there.  Every league is different of course.

Even in a vacuum, even if I agreed on the value of 2.4 vs Doyle (which I basically already said I think it's fair), I absolutely would argue that the team receiving the player at this time of year must also think about the valuation in terms of who they would either be cutting or forced to try and trade. In my case (not a vacuum), there are a few names that are probably debatable, but who I would prefer based on upside.  Largely because (not a vacuum again) my flex starters are stronger already. 

Just my thoughts. Like I said I certainly don't fault anyone for taking the Doyle side.

 

Do you see any you could trade for a 1st, that happen to score within a PPG or so of Doyle?  That's what it's all about for me - to hell with everything else, value is value.  I'll worry about surplus and need and lining those up later.  Trading in February, give me the bargain.

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3 hours ago, FF Ninja said:

I dunno. It's a violent game and guys tend to take a lot less per year when they can get more guaranteed. Plus, Landry seems to really want out of Miami.

I would :wall: if Cleveland traded for him. They've got Gordon and Coleman with Njoku. They don't need to be throwing the ball to the slot guy very much.

I actually think he's a great option there.  They don't know what they have at TE yet and they need a chain-mover.  They had a ton of three and outs because no one could convert a 3rd and 5.  Kizer's a big part of that but guys getting open and holding the ball was too.

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4 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

I actually think he's a great option there.  They don't know what they have at TE yet and they need a chain-mover.  They had a ton of three and outs because no one could convert a 3rd and 5.  Kizer's a big part of that but guys getting open and holding the ball was too.

He's not really a first down specialist. I think he's actually got one of the lowest 1st downs per reception rate in the league. As for the Browns, a large part of the problem last year was raw QB, raw TE, Coleman was hurt, and Gordon was not playing. I mean, if they're not going to use the money then sure, throw some at Landry, but I don't think Landry is better than Coleman. If Coleman can stay healthy, they could use him for short passes. Sure, he's good as a deep threat but he's dangerous with the ball in his hands, too. He was going in the first round even if Cleveland didn't take him.

Athleticism isn't everything at WR, but damn:

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/corey-coleman/

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/jarvis-landry/

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3 hours ago, FF Ninja said:

I like your optimism, but no, those 4 moves won't free up nearly that much space. Those four players currently combine for a $61.841MM cap hit. Cutting JT and James will save $13.941MM. But Suh and Tannehill will still be on the team and their cap hits will be significant. Restructuring won't be able to reduce their cap hits from $45.9MM down to less than a third of that. And whatever they do will just make their 2019 situation worse.

I'm guessing those four moves free up maybe $25-30MM.

Agreed, that $50-$60M was a big overstatement, but they can easily clear enough to fit that franchise tag in. Lawrence Timmons will be a goner in addition to Thomas & James which is $20M right there. Tannehill's contract can be restructured if they want.

 

Suh's ridiculous contract has been an albatross around their necks, though they can finally get out of it this year with some very minor savings. They could also designate him a post June 1st cut and split the dead money hit into two years freeing up $15M this year (it shifts an $11.1M hit into next year but frees up a net $7M overall for 2019.) There have been rumblings since last preseason that they want to move on from him despite him still playing at a high level due to the huge contract.

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20 minutes ago, Buckna said:

Agreed, that $50-$60M was a big overstatement, but they can easily clear enough to fit that franchise tag in. Lawrence Timmons will be a goner in addition to Thomas & James which is $20M right there. Tannehill's contract can be restructured if they want.

 

Suh's ridiculous contract has been an albatross around their necks, though they can finally get out of it this year with some very minor savings. They could also designate him a post June 1st cut and split the dead money hit into two years freeing up $15M this year (it shifts an $11.1M hit into next year but frees up a net $7M overall for 2019.) There have been rumblings since last preseason that they want to move on from him despite him still playing at a high level due to the huge contract.

Yeah, I did not mean to imply that they would not be able to fit the franchise tag at all. I just meant that it would be hell for them, given their situation. They either defer some of that hell to next year or mostly sit out free agency so they can afford to sign their rookies. This is not a team without needs, so tying up $16MM at this point would be crippling to their free agent efforts. 

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2 hours ago, Hankmoody said:

Do you see any you could trade for a 1st, that happen to score within a PPG or so of Doyle?  That's what it's all about for me - to hell with everything else, value is value.  I'll worry about surplus and need and lining those up later.  Trading in February, give me the bargain.

But "later" is barely more than two months from now. We have to make our cuts by the end of the NFL draft. April 28th. I'm going to blink and that date will be here.

And yes I will have to try and move some people or risk cutting them. This is *already* a problem. More so if I acquire another player. There is a risk there. And if it comes to that then I will have paid the 2.4 for the privilege of cutting someone that as of the moment of this writing, I'd prefer over Doyle. 

My preference would be to move some of these other players and then yes I could make room. I've been trying to move guys. Some of the league members aren't even paid up and eligible to trade with yet. I can't just make trades because I wish to.

 

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1 hour ago, ghostguy123 said:

Geeze, you know you signed a guy to a bad deal when you want to cut him even though he is playing the way you hoped he would play.  

I think its $17M in base salary this year going up to $19M the next two years, with a $9.1M pro-rated signing bonus hit every year. Something like the 11th highest base salary in the league and 4th highest non-QB. IIRC, at the time he signed it, it was the highest paid defensive player in the league and highest non-QB.

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3 hours ago, Buckna said:

Agreed, that $50-$60M was a big overstatement, but they can easily clear enough to fit that franchise tag in. Lawrence Timmons will be a goner in addition to Thomas & James which is $20M right there. Tannehill's contract can be restructured if they want.

 

Suh's ridiculous contract has been an albatross around their necks, though they can finally get out of it this year with some very minor savings. They could also designate him a post June 1st cut and split the dead money hit into two years freeing up $15M this year (it shifts an $11.1M hit into next year but frees up a net $7M overall for 2019.) There have been rumblings since last preseason that they want to move on from him despite him still playing at a high level due to the huge contract.

Timmons is guaranteed $4.5M out of a $5.45M salary and eating another $2.75M dead money.  I doubt they are cutting him, but they could trade the $4.5M back to PIT. 

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2 hours ago, Conanthecontrarian said:

12 team non-ppr Zealots league.

I gave: Robert Woods, 2018 2.10 rookie pick, 2018 3.10 rookie pick

He gave: LeSean McCoy, 2018 4.06 rookie pick

I like Woods and the pick upgrade here. Heck, I think I’d take Woods over McCoy without the picks. Woods is in a hot offense that I think everyone is going to want a piece of in the next couple years. McCoy is getting older and only has a couple years left in the tank.

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2 minutes ago, Boston said:

Interesting trade...would go with Julio and Cooks as I see Thomas being a distant 4th of this group of WRs...

Same and for same main reason which is how lightly I value Thomas.   Huge updgrade in next few years for Julio/Cooks side.  After next few years I'd think I"d rather have Evans side, after Julio falls off, but trying to predict an outcome and player value a few years down the road vs just obtaining what I think is a 90%+ chance of upgrade over next few years while not getting older is the way I'd rather go.

 

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16 hours ago, Hankmoody said:

Timmons is guaranteed $4.5M out of a $5.45M salary and eating another $2.75M dead money.  I doubt they are cutting him, but they could trade the $4.5M back to PIT. 

It was an easily missed development, but Timmons guarantee's went out the window when he went off the reservation at the beginning of last season going AWOL the night before the 2nd game. He lost the guarantee on his 2018 salary as part of his punishment, that and the fact he was a non-factor the second half of the season means he is likely getting cut.

 

Edit: it was the 2nd game of the season, not the 1st

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19 minutes ago, Buckna said:

It was an easily missed development, but Timmons guarantee's went out the window when he went off the reservation at the beginning of last season going AWOL the night before the 2nd game. He lost the guarantee on his 2018 salary as part of his punishment, that and the fact he was a non-factor the second half of the season means he is likely getting cut.

 

Edit: it was the 2nd game of the season, not the 1st

Good catch, spotrac doesn't have that update.  The dead money hit is still there, so I wonder if the $5.4M is enough reason to let him go.  He played pretty well once he got his head right, didn't he?

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Team A got David Johnson

Team B got 1.01 and 2.01

Team B won the league 2 years ago but had a bad year last year without DJ and with Jordy having a down year (also has the 1.04). Team A earned the 1.01 fair and square and has a pretty weak overall team.

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11 minutes ago, kutta said:

Team A got David Johnson

Team B got 1.01 and 2.01

Team B won the league 2 years ago but had a bad year last year without DJ and with Jordy having a down year (also has the 1.04). Team A earned the 1.01 fair and square and has a pretty weak overall team.

Glad to see you made the deal. I think you won pretty handily. 

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Just now, FreeBaGeL said:

Can we see his team?  Things can change fast in fantasy.  Last two league champs in one of my leagues earned the 1.01 within 2 years before that title.

But they probably kept the pick(s) and built around guys like Zeke and Fournette. It surely can be done - but I think a guy making a move like that is probably not going to turn things around quickly.

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1 minute ago, Dr. Octopus said:

But they probably kept the pick(s) and built around guys like Zeke and Fournette. It surely can be done - but I think a guy making a move like that is probably not going to turn things around quickly.

Well there's no discernable difference between those guys coming into the league and DJ if we're talking about a 2-3 year window.  Though yes one guy did get Zeke to go along with his Gurley (:shock:) though the other did not.

I agree I would take Barkley easily in this guy's scenario, but I do think a lot of people overreact to how long a rebuild should take and assume that if you weren't a contender last year you shouldn't be bothering with anyone older than 22 (hyperbole, but you get what I'm saying).  If you have a stud RB if that's what he believes DJ still is then it doesn't take much more than a few lucky waiver hits or sudden turnarounds (Gurley) to turn a team from doormat to contender.

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12 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Well there's no discernable difference between those guys coming into the league and DJ if we're talking about a 2-3 year window.  Though yes one guy did get Zeke to go along with his Gurley (:shock:) though the other did not.

I agree I would take Barkley easily in this guy's scenario, but I do think a lot of people overreact to how long a rebuild should take and assume that if you weren't a contender last year you shouldn't be bothering with anyone older than 22 (hyperbole, but you get what I'm saying).  If you have a stud RB if that's what he believes DJ still is then it doesn't take much more than a few lucky waiver hits or sudden turnarounds (Gurley) to turn a team from doormat to contender.

I guess I'm equating it to a similar trade I saw in one of my leagues. The guy who earned the 1.01, traded the 1.01, 3.01, 4.01 and 5.01 for LeVeon Bell. His team is quite bad and I just thought he'd be way better off keeping Barkley or better yet trading him for a collection of players picks. His team will be Goff/Dalton-Bell-McCaffrey-Ja. Williams-Crowder-Lee-Ginn-Fleener, so maybe my perception is a little skewed.

If one player is not going to make a difference stick with the young guy especially when that guy is considered "can't miss" (which of course doesn't always play out).

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11 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I guess I'm equating it to a similar trade I saw in one of my leagues. The guy who earned the 1.01, traded the 1.01, 3.01, 4.01 and 5.01 for LeVeon Bell. His team is quite bad and I just thought he'd be way better off keeping Barkley or better yet trading him for a collection of players picks. His team will be Goff/Dalton-Bell-McCaffrey-Ja. Williams-Crowder-Lee-Ginn-Fleener, so maybe my perception is a little skewed.

If one player is not going to make a difference stick with the young guy especially when that guy is considered "can't miss" (which of course doesn't always play out).

RB was the least heinous of that team's needs. Bad trade indeed.

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1 hour ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Can we see his team?  Things can change fast in fantasy.  Last two league champs in one of my leagues earned the 1.01 within 2 years before that title.

Here it is in all its glory. 12-team PPR. Start 1QB, 1RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1 Flex

Brees, Drew NOS QB340.665

Prescott, Dak DAL QB340.666

Trubisky, Mitchell CHI QB (R)178.529

 

Abdullah, Ameer DET RB133.407

Charles, Jamaal DEN RB71.505

Forte, Matt NYJ RB (I)122.4011

Ivory, Chris JAC RB91.808

Riddick, Theo DET RB152.107

Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB129.7011

 

Amendola, Danny NEP WR136.909

Austin, Tavon LAR WR51.908

Beasley, Cole DAL WR87.406

Benjamin, Travis LAC WR120.709

Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR257.448

Kearse, Jermaine NYJ WR171.0011

 

Clay, Charles BUF TE114.806

Gresham, Jermaine ARI TE (D)75.208

Witten, Jason DAL TE144.006

 

Crosby, Mason GBP PK80.008

Vinatieri, Adam IND PK119.0011

Falcons, Atlanta ATL Def121.005

Panthers, Carolina CAR Def

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2 minutes ago, kutta said:

Here it is in all its glory. 12-team PPR. Start 1QB, 1RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1 Flex

Brees, Drew NOS QB340.665

Prescott, Dak DAL QB340.666

Trubisky, Mitchell CHI QB (R)178.529

 

Abdullah, Ameer DET RB133.407

Charles, Jamaal DEN RB71.505

Forte, Matt NYJ RB (I)122.4011

Ivory, Chris JAC RB91.808

Riddick, Theo DET RB152.107

Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB129.7011

 

Amendola, Danny NEP WR136.909

Austin, Tavon LAR WR51.908

Beasley, Cole DAL WR87.406

Benjamin, Travis LAC WR120.709

Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR257.448

Kearse, Jermaine NYJ WR171.0011

 

Clay, Charles BUF TE114.806

Gresham, Jermaine ARI TE (D)75.208

Witten, Jason DAL TE144.006

 

Crosby, Mason GBP PK80.008

Vinatieri, Adam IND PK119.0011

Falcons, Atlanta ATL Def121.005

Panthers, Carolina CAR Def

Dude needs RB & WR help badly

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10 minutes ago, kutta said:

Here it is in all its glory. 12-team PPR. Start 1QB, 1RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1 Flex

Teams like that should be trading the 1.01 for multiple picks/players not a 26/27 year old RB. Even if DJ is the best back in the league this season, what good does that do him? I guess he can trade him in season for a 2019 first round pick. :P

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2 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Teams like that should be trading the 1.01 for multiple picks/players not a 26/27 year old RB. Even if DJ is the best back in the league this season, what good does that do him? I guess he can trade him in season for a 2019 first round pick. :P

Yeah, some people are already mad about the trade. I agree it's not a great move for him, but heck, if he can somehow get a couple more pieces, he could be a contender pretty quicly with DJ.

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5 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Teams like that should be trading the 1.01 for multiple picks/players not a 26/27 year old RB. Even if DJ is the best back in the league this season, what good does that do him? I guess he can trade him in season for a 2019 first round pick. :P

This is the kind of trade the pisses off the rest of the league, I'm sure.  Not that Kutta shouldn't have taken it - he should and I absolutely would have - but it's bad for league balance when one team keeps making awful roster decisions.  

Edit: And you're right: that's exactly what's going to happen.  He's going to end up selling DJ for a lot less than he paid. 

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1 minute ago, kutta said:

Yeah, some people are already mad about the trade. I agree it's not a great move for him, but heck, if he can somehow get a couple more pieces, he could be a contender pretty quicly with DJ.

I'm sure he can trade "Playoff" Danny Amendola for Julio Jones and Gronk, Chris Ivory and Cole Beasley for Le'Veon Bell and package Kearse, Benjamin and Witten for Tyreke Hill and Kareem Hunt and get in the mix for the trophy.

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Just now, Pwingles said:

He wouldve been better off trading the 1.01 for 2-3 other picks this year, and then flipping those for more picks and just punting this year. Instead he punted this year and got nothing out of it for the future

He also would have been better off doing nothing and picking Barkley at 1.01 and the BPA at 2.01.

David Johnson could literally double his 2016 output and the guy may win 3 games.

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Just now, Dr. Octopus said:

He also would have been better off doing nothing and picking Barkley at 1.01 and the BPA at 2.01.

David Johnson could literally double his 2016 output and the guy may win 3 games.

I dont disagree. Just saying, IF youre intent on trading the 1.01, and your team looks like his does.....

He did it wrong.

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18 minutes ago, Pwingles said:

He wouldve been better off trading the 1.01 for 2-3 other picks this year, and then flipping those for more picks and just punting this year. Instead he punted this year and got nothing out of it for the future

I don't disagree with you guys that it was a bad trade for him and if it were me I would have gone the opposite direction, but many look at how far off the deep end the dynasty consensus has gone.  A 26 year old player provides "nothing for the future".

Rebuilds don't have to take 5 years.

That team stinks but it's a lot better than the team that won a title in one of my leagues was the year before he won it recently.  Things change fast in fantasy. 

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Just now, FreeBaGeL said:

I don't disagree with you guys that it was a bad trade for him and if it were me I would have gone the opposite direction, but many look at how far off the deep end the dynasty consensus has gone.  A 26 year old player provides "nothing for the future".

Rebuilds don't have to take 5 years.

That team stinks but it's a lot better than the team that won a title in one of my leagues was the year before he won it recently.  Things change fast in fantasy. 

Well he'll be 27 by season's end, but I agree the dynasty landscape writes guys off too soon and it's getting worse and worse. I'm really just commenting on this particular trade. Things can change fast, yes - but a bad team is just better off going with the youth here. The odds are by the time that team can compete Barkely will be the more valuable player.

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1 minute ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I don't disagree with you guys that it was a bad trade for him and if it were me I would have gone the opposite direction, but many look at how far off the deep end the dynasty consensus has gone.  A 26 year old player provides "nothing for the future".

Rebuilds don't have to take 5 years.

That team stinks but it's a lot better than the team that won a title in one of my leagues was the year before he won it recently.  Things change fast in fantasy. 

I agree with you in theory, but just don't see an avenue for that roster to rebound in the next couple years.  Especially in established, 4+ year old leagues, you need to be a lot better than average to have a legitimate shot.  

But I absolutely agree that we tend to overestimate turnaround time, and go overboard by telling "re-builders" to sell everyone who won't be playing in 5 years.  

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37 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I'm sure he can trade "Playoff" Danny Amendola for Julio Jones and Gronk, Chris Ivory and Cole Beasley for Le'Veon Bell and package Kearse, Benjamin and Witten for Tyreke Hill and Kareem Hunt and get in the mix for the trophy.

I'm just saying that DJ is such a force, and between him and Brees he may end up being competitive with a couple breaks. But yes, I agree this was not a good move for him.

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1 hour ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I don't disagree with you guys that it was a bad trade for him and if it were me I would have gone the opposite direction, but many look at how far off the deep end the dynasty consensus has gone.  A 26 year old player provides "nothing for the future".

Rebuilds don't have to take 5 years.

That team stinks but it's a lot better than the team that won a title in one of my leagues was the year before he won it recently.  Things change fast in fantasy. 

my thinking is this, in regard to my statement of "nothing for the future"

DJ is not winning him a ship, or making him a playoff team. But, its reasonable he could accidentally win him a few games.

This worsens his position in the draft, which makes his picks less valuable. So its directly hurting his ability to use his picks as assets for acquisitions. Also (theoretically) hurting his team assuming the prospects he uses them on, are not as good as the earlier picks would've been.

He has zero valuable assets aside from DJ at this point. So what would he do, trade DJ? If you're going to go thru all that, just keep your picks, they are more valuable to your team and your efforts of a rebuild. Unless you can trade DJ for a multitude of other good picks (which you could've done with the 1.01, probably more profitably too) I dont see how this team doesnt need to be blown up again in 2 years.

So, in summary, he gave away a potentially generational prospect and another potentially good player at the 2.01, for one player, 5+ years older with a lot of miles on him.

So yeah, his future is pretty bleak. At least if you draft barkley you can bench him for a year and essentially tank. If you trade for DJ, benching him isnt really an option and doesnt make sense, so you will trot out a less crappy team every week and skyrocket his squad to.... the middle. Which is worse than the bottom.

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41 minutes ago, Pwingles said:

my thinking is this, in regard to my statement of "nothing for the future"

DJ is not winning him a ship, or making him a playoff team. But, its reasonable he could accidentally win him a few games.

This worsens his position in the draft, which makes his picks less valuable. So its directly hurting his ability to use his picks as assets for acquisitions. Also (theoretically) hurting his team assuming the prospects he uses them on, are not as good as the earlier picks would've been.

He has zero valuable assets aside from DJ at this point. So what would he do, trade DJ? If you're going to go thru all that, just keep your picks, they are more valuable to your team and your efforts of a rebuild. Unless you can trade DJ for a multitude of other good picks (which you could've done with the 1.01, probably more profitably too) I dont see how this team doesnt need to be blown up again in 2 years.

So, in summary, he gave away a potentially generational prospect and another potentially good player at the 2.01, for one player, 5+ years older with a lot of miles on him.

So yeah, his future is pretty bleak. At least if you draft barkley you can bench him for a year and essentially tank. If you trade for DJ, benching him isnt really an option and doesnt make sense, so you will trot out a less crappy team every week and skyrocket his squad to.... the middle. Which is worse than the bottom.

I agree with most of this, but the "lot of miles" comment is misleading. DJ has only played 2 years, one as a full-time starter. He really doesn't have many miles on him at all at this point.

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24 minutes ago, Pwingles said:

So yeah, his future is pretty bleak. At least if you draft barkley you can bench him for a year and essentially tank. If you trade for DJ, benching him isnt really an option and doesnt make sense, so you will trot out a less crappy team every week and skyrocket his squad to.... the middle. Which is worse than the bottom.

This is a pretty out there point.  If Barkley hits no one in any real league is sitting him on their bench.  That person is getting kicked out of the league.  It's not a real point.

 

Quote

He has zero valuable assets aside from DJ at this point. So what would he do, trade DJ? If you're going to go thru all that, just keep your picks, they are more valuable to your team and your efforts of a rebuild. Unless you can trade DJ for a multitude of other good picks (which you could've done with the 1.01, probably more profitably too) I dont see how this team doesnt need to be blown up again in 2 years.

You're kind of making my point here.  What does he do with DJ?  Play him and try to win a championship.  His team looks like garbage but so did a team that was rolling out Alex Smith, Marvin Jones, Adam Thielen, Dion Lewis, Duke Johnson, and Mark Ingram last year and whoops, that's probably a championship roster right there especially if you add an elite RB like DJ to it.

And like I said, he's a 26/27 year old RB.  He's not 32.  He doesn't have just one year to turn it around.  A lot of the time those valuable pieces in FF don't come from the obvious sources.  I'm not saying any of this is likely, but let's stop treating dynasty like if you don't have a top team you should be punting any player that won't be around 10 years from now.  Here's what the team that just won my league championshp with 1-loss and the most points scored in league history (15 year league) looked like 3 years ago:

QB: Rodgers, Foles
RB: Frank Gore, Shonne Green, Branden Oliver, Knile Davis, Bryce Brown, Jerick McKinnon, Marcus Lattimore
WR: Josh Gordon (susp), Michael Crabtree (SF bust version), Willie Snead, Sammie Coates
TE: Larry Donnell

Again I'm not saying any of this is likely, and again I'm still well on the Barkley side here, but let's stop pretending like someone not deciding that a rebuild entails 5 years of tanking is this terrible league wrecking move.

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1 hour ago, Dr. Octopus said:

The odds are by the time that team can compete Barkely will be the more valuable player.

Are they?  Or are we just spoiled by the recent run of top rookie RBs paying off?  Historically, the odds are probably closer to Barkley being a borderline fantasy bench player 3 years from now.  Are we letting ourselves subconsciously overrate the likelihood of a top RB prospect obviously becoming a top fantasy player the same way a few years ago everyone was overrating the likelihood of a 1st round WR becoming a 10 year cornerstone because of a short stretch of success?

I like Barkley a lot, but he has a few warts that people are ignoring that we could easily be looking back at as indicators we should have seen coming a few years from now.

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2 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Are they?  Or are we just spoiled by the recent run of top rookie RBs paying off?  Historically, the odds are probably closer to Barkley being a borderline fantasy bench player 3 years from now.  Are we letting ourselves subconsciously overrate the likelihood of a top RB prospect obviously becoming a top fantasy player the same way a few years ago everyone was overrating the likelihood of a 1st round WR becoming a 10 year cornerstone because of a short stretch of success?

I like Barkley a lot, but he has a few warts that people are ignoring that we could easily be looking back at as indicators we should have seen coming a few years from now.

I agree with you. This trade was a lot harder for me to pull the trigger on than people in my league seem to think. DJ is an absolute stud, and if he would have played this year, I suspect a lot of people wouldn't make that trade. Everyone forgets just how good he really was last year.

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32 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

  Historically, the odds are probably closer to Barkley being a borderline fantasy bench player 3 years from now. 

Not recent history, recent history suggests not much safer then a top 10 drafted RB and really there is not much safer than a RB who catches passes.

I'm sure you don't believe what you wrote, you don't truly believe the odds are better he'll be be a borderline bench player in 3 years.

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1 hour ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Are they?  Or are we just spoiled by the recent run of top rookie RBs paying off?  Historically, the odds are probably closer to Barkley being a borderline fantasy bench player 3 years from now.  Are we letting ourselves subconsciously overrate the likelihood of a top RB prospect obviously becoming a top fantasy player the same way a few years ago everyone was overrating the likelihood of a 1st round WR becoming a 10 year cornerstone because of a short stretch of success?

I like Barkley a lot, but he has a few warts that people are ignoring that we could easily be looking back at as indicators we should have seen coming a few years from now.

This could go both ways though. I can just as easily say let’s look at the players that had one good season during their first starting year (like say Doug Martin or Trent Richardson) and then fell apart. I don’t think Johnson will, but he could.

I’ll stick with my statement that Barkley is more likely to be the more valuable player in 2 seasons from now.

i know you’re trying to make a greater point - a point I actually agree with - I just think you’re using the wrong jumping off point.

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1 hour ago, kutta said:

I agree with you. This trade was a lot harder for me to pull the trigger on than people in my league seem to think. DJ is an absolute stud, and if he would have played this year, I suspect a lot of people wouldn't make that trade. Everyone forgets just how good he really was last year.

See if I was you, it wouldn’t have been an easy accept either. Johnson could go on to have 5 more great seasons. My main beef is from the perspective of your trade partner. It was a bad trade for him - that doesn’t necessarily make it a great trade for you. I think it was, but we don’t really know that. It’s just hard to see it being a win for him unless some very strange things happen.

 

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