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****OFFICIAL 2021 IN- SEASON DYNASTY TRADES****


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2 hours ago, SayWhat? said:

I think we can all agree that Shady for Golladay is a terrible return on Shady, regardless of what type of production he yet yields. 

And it's especially so when you look at the FBG staff rankings of McCoy, as he's ranked higher than every non-Barkley rookie RB by half of the staff whom have submitted rankings.  Seriously, ranking McCoy as equivalent to the the 1.02 in this year's rookie class should result in auto-removal from providing content on a for-pay fantasy football site.  You're legitimately taking Shady of Guice, Penny, Chubb, Jones, Michel, and even Johnson or Freeman?  Well then you're terrible at fantasy football.   

/rant

*Secretly checks the rankings I posted about 10 days ago to check where I had him, yup all good.  

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11 hours ago, Concept Coop said:

1st. Truly random 1sts are worth a lot more than this, imo.

This is a great perspective.  Everyone trading them likes their team and thinks "I'll probably make the playoffs so this should be late-ish" so you're only paying about 1.09 prices for 1.06-1.07 value.  Vegas would love giving these odds.

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3 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

This is a great perspective.  Everyone trading them likes their team and thinks "I'll probably make the playoffs so this should be late-ish" so you're only paying about 1.09 prices for 1.06-1.07 value.  Vegas would love giving these odds.

Especially in FFPC.  Random 1sts are the best.  Better chance of a top 2 pick than the worst team in the league

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3 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

This is a great perspective.  Everyone trading them likes their team and thinks "I'll probably make the playoffs so this should be late-ish" so you're only paying about 1.09 prices for 1.06-1.07 value.  Vegas would love giving these odds.

Here's the other side of that argument.

Let's say your future first ends up being the last pick in the first round. You've gained no value - 2.6 is barely enough to justify moving up from 2.4 to 1.12, and this year I think a lot of owners would prefer the two seconds. So you're gambling that the pick is better than 1.12.

Let's say your future first ends up being 1.6. That's a huge increase in value for the guy who gave up 2.4 and 2.6.  Totally worth it.  But 2.4 can increase in value too.  If you hit on an immediate producer, like some people expect Gallup to be, his value alone will be close to 1.6. Kupp was supposed to be an immediate producer, he produced immediately, and people have been throwing firsts at him since. 

I get the value add for trading a current early second for a random future first, but two early seconds gives you a chance to pick up a huge profit.  

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2 minutes ago, bostonfred said:

Here's the other side of that argument.

Let's say your future first ends up being the last pick in the first round. You've gained no value - 2.6 is barely enough to justify moving up from 2.4 to 1.12, and this year I think a lot of owners would prefer the two seconds. So you're gambling that the pick is better than 1.12.

Let's say your future first ends up being 1.6. That's a huge increase in value for the guy who gave up 2.4 and 2.6.  Totally worth it.  But 2.4 can increase in value too.  If you hit on an immediate producer, like some people expect Gallup to be, his value alone will be close to 1.6. Kupp was supposed to be an immediate producer, he produced immediately, and people have been throwing firsts at him since. 

I get the value add for trading a current early second for a random future first, but two early seconds gives you a chance to pick up a huge profit.  

You are not describing "truly random 1st" here but you are still making my point.  Your worst case of 1.12 is a breakeven - which means that anything beyond worst case is a free roll.  If you have any investments where my worst case is a breakeven then sign me and my entire 401k up.  You also didn't account for the possibility the pick is earlier than 1.06.  On top of that possibility, the value of picks increases non-linearly as the pick becomes higher (better) so you're getting even better odds.  Moving 4 spots down from 1.12 to 1.08 costs you X but moving 7 spots down from 1.08 to 1.01 would cost far more than 2X.  Far, far more.

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43 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

You are not describing "truly random 1st" here but you are still making my point.  Your worst case of 1.12 is a breakeven - which means that anything beyond worst case is a free roll.  If you have any investments where my worst case is a breakeven then sign me and my entire 401k up.  You also didn't account for the possibility the pick is earlier than 1.06.  On top of that possibility, the value of picks increases non-linearly as the pick becomes higher (better) so you're getting even better odds.  Moving 4 spots down from 1.12 to 1.08 costs you X but moving 7 spots down from 1.08 to 1.01 would cost far more than 2X.  Far, far more.

I agree with what you guys are saying in principle, but I don't think it applies in every case. When you trade 2.1 otc for a future first you're free rolling, even if the guy who "slipped" to 2.1 is awesome.  When you trade 2.4 and 2.6 you aren't necessarily free rolling, because some players lend themselves well to flipping for a future first. Gallup is one of those players - decent talent, immediate opportunity, young qb - where if he puts up 800 yards as a rookie, you'll be able to get a first plus for him next year. If you were trading Gallup for a future first, sure, it's still basically a free roll. But if you get two guys with immediate opportunity and both become flippable for a future first, you stand to earn twice the compensation that you'd get from just waiting. 

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1 hour ago, ghostguy123 said:

Especially in FFPC.  Random 1sts are the best.  Better chance of a top 2 pick than the worst team in the league

I’ve never played in the FFPC but am considering joining a start up dynasty league this year. Can you please explain what you mean by your statement? Thanks. 

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16 man full IDP

Team A gave up Year 2018 Draft Pick 1.16; Year 2019 Round 1 Draft Pick from Team A;Year 2019 Round 2 Draft Pick from Team A; $5.00 in blind bidding
Team B gave up Year 2018 Draft Pick 1.04

2019 picks are top 5 easy.

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15 minutes ago, joey said:

I’ve never played in the FFPC but am considering joining a start up dynasty league this year. Can you please explain what you mean by your statement? Thanks. 

In FFPC the top pick is decided via a consolation playoff bracket of all the non-playoff teams.

In the case of my trade where I gave the 2.4/2.6, gun to my head I would say the team who's pick I was getting back is a playoff team.  But they're a borderline playoff team and if they miss the playoffs then that puts them in the position of likely being the best team in the consolation bracket, at which point they're the favorite for the #1 pick.  Over time, on average, the 7th best team will end up with the 1st pick the most often in FFPC.

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1 hour ago, bostonfred said:

Here's the other side of that argument.

Let's say your future first ends up being the last pick in the first round. You've gained no value - 2.6 is barely enough to justify moving up from 2.4 to 1.12, and this year I think a lot of owners would prefer the two seconds. So you're gambling that the pick is better than 1.12.

Let's say your future first ends up being 1.6. That's a huge increase in value for the guy who gave up 2.4 and 2.6.  Totally worth it.  But 2.4 can increase in value too.  If you hit on an immediate producer, like some people expect Gallup to be, his value alone will be close to 1.6. Kupp was supposed to be an immediate producer, he produced immediately, and people have been throwing firsts at him since. 

I get the value add for trading a current early second for a random future first, but two early seconds gives you a chance to pick up a huge profit.  

This year specifically I don't think 2.4/2.6 would net 1.12 in most leagues.  There seems to be a pretty large perceived value drop after the Sutton/Gallup/Kirk trio come off the board at pick 13 this year.

In most years, I think 2.4/2.6 for 1.12 would be considered pretty even.  So in that sense, it's a free roll.

 

32 minutes ago, bostonfred said:

I agree with what you guys are saying in principle, but I don't think it applies in every case. When you trade 2.1 otc for a future first you're free rolling, even if the guy who "slipped" to 2.1 is awesome.  When you trade 2.4 and 2.6 you aren't necessarily free rolling, because some players lend themselves well to flipping for a future first. Gallup is one of those players - decent talent, immediate opportunity, young qb - where if he puts up 800 yards as a rookie, you'll be able to get a first plus for him next year. If you were trading Gallup for a future first, sure, it's still basically a free roll. But if you get two guys with immediate opportunity and both become flippable for a future first, you stand to earn twice the compensation that you'd get from just waiting. 

I think once you start adding the performance in that rookie year in between everything falls apart.  Even your example of a 2.1 for future 1st isn't really free rolling by your logic, because the 2.1 could perform so well in his rookie year that he is worth 2 firsts or 3 firsts.  Heck 5.01 for a future 1st would not be a free roll because 5.01 could be Marques Colston or Alfred Morris.

You really have to consider it just from the standpoint of the picks.  The way I look at it personally, 2.4/2.6 (I don't think I would really call them two "early" firsts) for a late 1st in the same year would typically be considered a pretty even trade.  The year wait doesn't bother me personally (and I only discount for it because the consensus says it is fair for me to do as much) so the way I look at it even if the pick was 1.11 or 1.12 then it is pretty even value to me.  And of course it is more likely than not that it will be higher than 1.11 or 1.12.  In this case when I say "random" I mean in the sense that this is FFPC and this is a borderline playoff team, in which format those teams have a good shot at a very high pick if they end up missing the playoffs.

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9 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

In FFPC the top pick is decided via a consolation playoff bracket of all the non-playoff teams.

In the case of my trade where I gave the 2.4/2.6, gun to my head I would say the team who's pick I was getting back is a playoff team.  But they're a borderline playoff team and if they miss the playoffs then that puts them in the position of likely being the best team in the consolation bracket, at which point they're the favorite for the #1 pick.  Over time, on average, the 7th best team will end up with the 1st pick the most often in FFPC.

I assume the consolation bracket is playing for some cash, otherwise what is my motivation if I don't own my first?

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A couple of Trubisky trades in different 16 man IDP leagues

    Team A gave up Year 2018 Draft Pick 2.06;Year 2018 Draft Pick 6.03; $4.00 in blind bidding
    Team B gave up Trubisky, Mitchell CHI QB; Year 2018 Draft Pick 4.02

    Team A gave up Mariota, Marcus TEN QB; Year 2018 Draft Pick 4.08
    Team B gave up Trubisky, Mitchell CHI QB; Year 2018 Draft Pick 3.04

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23 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

12 man full IDP PPR

Team A gave up Ajayi, Jay PHI RB;Evans, Mike TBB WR; Year 2019 Round 3 Draft Pick from Team B
Team B gave up Cook, Dalvin MIN RB;Davis, Corey TEN WR; Year 2019 Round 4 Draft Pick from Team B

Cook > Ajayi

Evans >> Davis

3rd > 4th

Evans side for me, but I do love me some Corey Davis

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6 hours ago, SayWhat? said:

I think we can all agree that Shady for Golladay is a terrible return on Shady, regardless of what type of production he yet yields. 

And it's especially so when you look at the FBG staff rankings of McCoy, as he's ranked higher than every non-Barkley rookie RB by half of the staff whom have submitted rankings.  Seriously, ranking McCoy as equivalent to the the 1.02 in this year's rookie class should result in auto-removal from providing content on a for-pay fantasy football site.  You're legitimately taking Shady of Guice, Penny, Chubb, Jones, Michel, and even Johnson or Freeman?  Well then you're terrible at fantasy football.   

/rant

I just checked the FBG dynasty rankings and you're correct.  Bizarre.

I'd bet anything the guys who ranked Shady above the top 5-6 RB's in this class wouldn't give up a 1.02 - 1.06 rookie pick for Shady.  It makes no sense for them to rank him over those rookie RB's.

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7 hours ago, bostonfred said:

I agree with what you guys are saying in principle, but I don't think it applies in every case. When you trade 2.1 otc for a future first you're free rolling, even if the guy who "slipped" to 2.1 is awesome.  When you trade 2.4 and 2.6 you aren't necessarily free rolling, because some players lend themselves well to flipping for a future first. Gallup is one of those players - decent talent, immediate opportunity, young qb - where if he puts up 800 yards as a rookie, you'll be able to get a first plus for him next year. If you were trading Gallup for a future first, sure, it's still basically a free roll. But if you get two guys with immediate opportunity and both become flippable for a future first, you stand to earn twice the compensation that you'd get from just waiting. 

Much higher chance both players tank than both players hit.  Just saying.

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7 hours ago, joey said:

I’ve never played in the FFPC but am considering joining a start up dynasty league this year. Can you please explain what you mean by your statement? Thanks. 

The 6 non-playoff teams play in the losers bracket with the winner getting the #1 pick.  The teams who just miss the playoffs have the best shot at the #1 pick because they are generally the better teams out of those 6.  

The worst team, even with a 1st round bye, still has to win a game to get into the top 2, then win another game to get the #1.  In that round 2 of the the losers bracket they will have to play a decent team who just won the previous week.

Simply put, it's very hard for the worst team to win 2 head to head games against better teams.  

Sure, that borderline playoff team might make the playoffs and get you pick 9 or 10 or whatever, but if you ran a simulation 100 times that borderline playoff team maybe gets you the #1 pick like 15% of the time while the worst team gets the #1 maybe 5%.

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6 hours ago, tkrull said:

I assume the consolation bracket is playing for some cash, otherwise what is my motivation if I don't own my first?

No, no cash.  And some teams DON'T have motivation to win, and it shows.  That's the chance you take.  I have had this both help me and also hurt me.

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7 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

In FFPC the top pick is decided via a consolation playoff bracket of all the non-playoff teams.

In the case of my trade where I gave the 2.4/2.6, gun to my head I would say the team who's pick I was getting back is a playoff team.  But they're a borderline playoff team and if they miss the playoffs then that puts them in the position of likely being the best team in the consolation bracket, at which point they're the favorite for the #1 pick.  Over time, on average, the 7th best team will end up with the 1st pick the most often in FFPC.

Does anyone monitor their line-ups since they'd really have no incentive to want to win?....not that they'd necessairly want to lose either.

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2 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Does anyone monitor their line-ups since they'd really have no incentive to want to win?....not that they'd necessairly want to lose either.

Yeah.  If you own another teams 1st, do what I do, and offer them something if they win you the #1.

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We use conditional trades all the time. We had one last year where someone traded a first for Jordan reed but if reed played fewer than 8 games it became a second. Or a conditional first, like i own two picks a and b, and you get the worse of team a and team bs picks. But that's enforced by the commissioner, not the website. Not sure if that would work in an online strangers league

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9 hours ago, Hankmoody said:

12 man full IDP PPR

Team A gave up Ajayi, Jay PHI RB;Evans, Mike TBB WR; Year 2019 Round 3 Draft Pick from Team B
Team B gave up Cook, Dalvin MIN RB;Davis, Corey TEN WR; Year 2019 Round 4 Draft Pick from Team B

I'd take Cook/Davis

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29 minutes ago, bostonfred said:

We use conditional trades all the time. We had one last year where someone traded a first for Jordan reed but if reed played fewer than 8 games it became a second. Or a conditional first, like i own two picks a and b, and you get the worse of team a and team bs picks. But that's enforced by the commissioner, not the website. Not sure if that would work in an online strangers league

I use conditional trades in my online dynasty leagues. The most recent was when I traded Hundley after Rodgers went down. It was for a 4th round rookie pick that could have become a 2nd or 3rd depending on where he ranked among QBs for the rest of the season. Unfortunately, it stayed a 4th lol  Conditional trades are fun and give you something else to root for or against as the season wears on.

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11 minutes ago, CR69 said:

I use conditional trades in my online dynasty leagues. The most recent was when I traded Hundley after Rodgers went down. It was for a 4th round rookie pick that could have become a 2nd or 3rd depending on where he ranked among QBs for the rest of the season. Unfortunately, it stayed a 4th lol  Conditional trades are fun and give you something else to root for or against as the season wears on.

But they can be a ##### to enforce unless well written and who wants to lawyer that?  We allow them in my homer league, but the wording is "Conditional trades are unofficailly allowed.  The League Office will only enforce the trade as it's executed on MFL.  Any future considerations or conditions are between the owners to adjudicate and resolve and neither the Commissioner nor League will get involved."  In other words, if you trust your trade partner cool, go for it.  But be clear and word it properly.  The only reason I even put it in there is so that, 4 months later, it doesn't look like collusion when Team A trades his 1st to Team B for their 4th.

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14 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

But they can be a ##### to enforce unless well written and who wants to lawyer that?  We allow them in my homer league, but the wording is "Conditional trades are unofficailly allowed.  The League Office will only enforce the trade as it's executed on MFL.  Any future considerations or conditions are between the owners to adjudicate and resolve and neither the Commissioner nor League will get involved."  In other words, if you trust your trade partner cool, go for it.  But be clear and word it properly.  The only reason I even put it in there is so that, 4 months later, it doesn't look like collusion when Team A trades his 1st to Team B for their 4th.

I can see how that could happen. I've done probably 15 of them over the years in my dynasty leagues and never had a problem. Maybe I'm a lawyer at heart? They usually are based on a guy finishing in a certain tier, playing a certain number of games or getting suspended (Josh Gordon).

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12 Team PPR - Q - RR - WWW - T - F

Busy last 12 hours for me. Original owner of the 19’ picks is a playoff contender. 25 man rosters, no IR/Taxi

 

Gave: 1.07 (He took Ridley), 4.12

Got: 19’ 1st, 19’ 2nd, OJ Howard

 

Gave: OJ Howard, 3.08, 4.06

Got: Mike Williams

 

Gave: 19’ 1st, 2.08, 2.09

Got: Kenyan Drake, Mark Ingram

 

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26 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

12 Team PPR - Q - RR - WWW - T - F

Busy last 12 hours for me. Original owner of the 19’ picks is a playoff contender. 25 man rosters, no IR/Taxi

 

Gave: 1.07 (He took Ridley), 4.12

Got: 19’ 1st, 19’ 2nd, OJ Howard

 

Gave: OJ Howard, 3.08, 4.06

Got: Mike Williams

 

Gave: 19’ 1st, 2.08, 2.09

Got: Kenyan Drake, Mark Ingram

 

The first one was a steal.  Flip a coin for the second, and I don't care for the third (but I'm not a Drake believer).

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1 hour ago, oldmanhawkins said:

The first one was a steal.  Flip a coin for the second, and I don't care for the third (but I'm not a Drake believer).

I’m a Drake guy and needed the RB depth. I went from 2 deep (Kamara/McCoy) to double that. 

Certainly reasonable to be cooler on Drake than I am. I’ll be holding my breath, but like the upside and opportunity.

Thanks for your thoughts.

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14 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

I’m a Drake guy and needed the RB depth. I went from 2 deep (Kamara/McCoy) to double that. 

Certainly reasonable to be cooler on Drake than I am. I’ll be holding my breath, but like the upside and opportunity.

Thanks for your thoughts.

I would probably take the picks but it's fair, and if you like Drake then his value probably isn't far off from a future 1st for you on his own which leaves Ingram at a bargain.

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23 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I think assuming mccoy has 2 or even 1 years of good production left is a mistake. He has somewhere between 0 and 3 years of production left and I think 0 is a lot more likely than 2 here. 

Similar in waiting to trade him mid-season. That assumes that his value hasn't already fallen to 0 by then. I don't like KG personally but there is a decent chance that right now is the best value mccoy will have for the rest of his career. 

His career path is really similar to guys like LT, Alexander, Edge, and Forte at this point. Career workhorses that had their career worst season (from an efficiency standpoint) at age 29 but still racked up decent fantasy numbers that year due to volume. 

In pretty much all of their cases that season was a signal that they were dangling over the cliff and their value was about to take an immediate cliff dive to nilville, even though that value was still retained heading in to their age 30 season where we should have seen the signs. 

Cool ...

but you could get more than Kenny G for him in a trade, right now. I think that’s what most are trying to say.

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41 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

I’m a Drake guy and needed the RB depth. I went from 2 deep (Kamara/McCoy) to double that. 

Certainly reasonable to be cooler on Drake than I am. I’ll be holding my breath, but like the upside and opportunity.

Thanks for your thoughts.

If you like Drake even close to whatever RB was available at 1.07, the 3 trades combined were a huge win.  

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On 5/14/2018 at 9:59 AM, FreeBaGeL said:

I think assuming mccoy has 2 or even 1 years of good production left is a mistake. He has somewhere between 0 and 3 years of production left and I think 0 is a lot more likely than 2 here. 

Similar in waiting to trade him mid-season. That assumes that his value hasn't already fallen to 0 by then. I don't like KG personally but there is a decent chance that right now is the best value mccoy will have for the rest of his career. 

His career path is really similar to guys like LT, Alexander, Edge, and Forte at this point. Career workhorses that had their career worst season (from an efficiency standpoint) at age 29 but still racked up decent fantasy numbers that year due to volume. 

In pretty much all of their cases that season was a signal that they were dangling over the cliff and their value was about to take an immediate cliff dive to nilville, even though that value was still retained heading in to their age 30 season where we should have seen the signs. 

Just so I am clear, are you suggesting that McCoy will have ZERO value this year? Are you predicting that he gets injured and retires in preseason? 

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9 minutes ago, 32 Counter Pass said:

Just so I am clear, are you suggesting that McCoy will have ZERO value this year? Are you predicting that he gets injured and retires in preseason? 

I don't think he's saying that.  

The problem is if McCoy starts off slow everyone will write him off.  Even if he picks it up nobody will value him due to age and thinking he's falling off the cliff.

He has no upside to his value.  He's a depreciating asset no matter what he does.  Any injury or underperformance and he will be viewed as close to worthless.

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10-team Best Ball PPR.  Deep rosters.  Start QRRWWWT W/R/T

 

Not involved:

Cam Newton, Paul Richardson, 2019 4th + 5th (late)

for 

Matthew Stafford

 

Involved:

gave Dallas Goedert, 2019 4th + 5th (late)

got George Kittle 

Have a bunch of young guys at TE (Howard, Shaheen, Hooper, Andrews), most of which are splitting time, so was looking to flip Goedert for someone with a better short-term outlook.

 

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20 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

12 team PPR TE 1.5

Team A gives AJ Green, CMC, 2019 2nd

Team B gives Penny, Chubb, Kirk, Mike Williams, 2019 1st & 3rd

 

Love the guys that Team B received, but he got taken to the cleaners IMO.  That’s essentially two top 5 rookie picks (Penny/Chubb), a late 1st (Kirk), an early 2nd (Williams), a 2019 bump from 2nd to 1st, and a 2019 3rd?  Everything beyond the two top 5 rookie picks is gravy.

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  • Gottabesweet changed the title to ****OFFICIAL 2021 IN- SEASON DYNASTY TRADES****

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