King of the Jungle
Footballguy
I like the trade as it is similar to what I would try to do. I usually try to get rid of guys prior to their expiration and think it is a good time to unload Kelce.
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****OFFICIAL DYNASTY TRADES**** (12 Viewers)
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Agree and no need to put the TE disclaimer in that comment. Using a first round pick in a startup on a 30 year old player is nuts to me period.
That's how I see it.
But that was last year. Doyle DID get hurt, and Ebron did play amazingly well and Indy signed Funchess who is practically another TE. The three of them together and healthy ruin all three of their fantasy prospects.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I think that's very optimistic. Kelce scored 349 points last year. 75-100 points less than that is 249-274 which would have been in the WR9-WR12 range last year.
I don't think it's necessarily a bad trade and I agree with you that it's probably the right time to move him a year early rather than a year late, but it it seems a bit low on value (obviously there are lots of people out there willing to pay 1st round startup value for Kelce even if you don't value him there) and really relies on both Godwin and the pick hitting to work out.
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Speaking of which on a team I own Ebron/Doyle I just gave up a few minutes ago pick 2.9 and someone I was going to cut (Samuel) for Funchess. I needed a WR a little to a whole lot depending on what happens with Reek Hill.
Things usually have a way of working out and not a single one of them is under contract for the 2020 season.
Also for what it' worth I did not really agree with some of what SayWhat had said earlier. Doyle for sure would have played high majority of snaps but his role was nothing like Ebron's. Ebron consequently likely benefited a little from Doyle's injury but in the 6 games that played together it's fair to point out that Ebron was actually just as good in most fantasy formats in those 6 games as he was in the 10 games without Doyle, helped in large part by higher TD pace in games with Doyle then without. Now I think SayWhat's point was that Doyle is maybe underrated a little and that I can agree with, but I also agree with you that Funchess addition is not a positive here for the TE's and this could be funky trying to figure out some weeks.
skinfanjon
Footballguy
I'd love to see your adp data. I seriously doubt it, he routinely went in the late 2nd last year in my $1250 and $2500 FFPC startups.
Indeed, my optimism requires Godwin and the draft pick to pan out. On the other hand, your counting on on Kelce repeating 350 points in your evaluation. Sure, he's capable of doing it, absolutely. But it takes a LOT of things going right to put up that kind of season. The odds are always against it, with any player.
Let's check it again in 12 months.
Marauder
Footballguy
So far this year in 7 FFPC start ups, Kelce has an ADP of 1.09 (between Beckham and Adams)
http://fantasymojo.com/index.php/2019/03/16/2019-dynasty-startup-adp/
skinfanjon
Footballguy
Thanks, I appreciate it but...
1- I'm not signing up
2- 7 startups lol (probably low level too)
3- doesn't make it a good idea anyway
Bottom line, he's not worth anchoring a new team to. Kittle though, he's on par with the Hopkins and Beckham's. Probably above them factoring in position scarcity but nobody takes him there. Yeah, being totally honest with myself, Kittle should go right after the elite RBs and JuJu in a startup. Yes, JuJu is my WR1.
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You will have a tough season if you own a lot of Kittle and Juju. They are both set to underperform this year.
skinfanjon
Footballguy
Uh, thought this was a dynasty trade thread. My bad.
Also, everyone is set to underperform against expectation of an elite season if measuring on a single season alone.
Fair enough. I don’t agree, as Luck throws as much as any QB in the NFL and certainly if at 90%+ of the snaps Doyle would be part of that equation. For the record, Im not proclaiming him elite but I am saying he’s not trash either and certainly reasonable that he’s on a plain equivalent to Jamison Crowder. For those that feel otherwise, I’m curious what Crowder has ever done or how his situation on the Jets puts him on another level? I’m not seeing it. Again, another guy in Crowder that if he’s in your lineup and you feel you’re a contender, I’m instsantly questioning that.
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Another one for my team in this league.
Gave: Trey Burton
Got: David Moore and 2020 second (mid)
Marauder
Footballguy
I tend to agree with you about exiting on Kelce now, I just think you should have been able to get more value. I don't know how much you shopped him around and you know this particular league and I obviously don't but I'm pretty surprised that you couldn't find somebody who would pay more than that in a FFPC league.
Granted there have only been 7 FFPC startups this year so far, mostly $250 leagues, but that is the best data we have and in the past I haven't seen much difference in ADP's between the lower level and higher level leagues.
As an aside, you are doing yourself a disservice by not signing up to that site. By far the best source of data on FFPC drafts (and in-season waiver wire bids), including the full draft boards of all FFPC leagues.
Kittle had a good year but there were no other receiving options left on the team. There will be more competition for catches. JuJu will be facing #1 Db with teams looking to stop him. They should both be on the most overrated list. They are great to have in dynasty because you can trade them for a good amount. Now is the time to cash in with them.
Pwingles
Footballguy
Thats fair. I really love Godwin. Hated to move him, but it would take a lot of injuries for him to start on this team, so I gambled on Cook and a likely high pick next year.
Trubisky is pretty meh imo, but it gives me a streamable qb to go along with Dak, which might be enough. Ive won 3 of the last 4 titles with Bortles and Dak so, not necessarily a down grade there. But losing Baker hurt a bit too. I think I just decided to err on the side of qb's not being huge difference makers in 1 qb leagues and took the value while the hype train was full steam.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I don't see a huge difference between Cook and Henry myself. Maybe a late 2nd? Baker>Mitch, so you're basically saying Arod and Godwin are only worth a 2020 1st the way I see it. I suppose if that pick does end up being top 3 you could make a case, but to me those two players are worth quite a bit more than a next year 1st. Just my two cents.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
For me Cook >>>> Henry. I mean he's going almost 3 full rounds ahead of him in startup drafts.
Cook/Mitch > Henry/Baker in 1qb for me, easily.
If the 2020 1st is early I would take it over Godwin+Arob.
This is true and probably by quite a decent margin. The problem is that this is a small 1QB league, which basically means all QBs are meaningless.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
kutta
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Yeah guess I'm in the minority. I think Henry is way undervalued here. I think he is *almost* worth the other side on his own.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
That deal wasn’t “buying low” and I suspect his owners aren’t selling at any discounts. I do agree that he could have a breakout season though.
I actually think people are overly focused on what he did the last month of the season.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
That's not exactly what the coach said. More typical coach speak along lines of he did well so let's give it to him and see if he can do it again and every time they said that they would mention getting other RB's involved. But I don't care to get caught up on that. I'm sure he'll have a chance to be a feature back, he had similar chances before and could not seize it and I think his late positive finish was aided by his lack of early season use and I do not anticipate that type of performance. Thus I think people are overrating the final few weeks.
ffmail4me
Footballguy
I think you are underrating him. There are lots of backs who need a lot of carries to get in the flow and get going, who get stronger as the game goes on (John Riggins, AP, Eddie George come to mind) so the fact that he was getting spot duty and pulled after a carry here or there could have easily contributed to his poor production. The team then kills the Dion Lewis experiment and he gets starter carries and goes off for 4 straight weeks. What's not to like??
I've never been a big fan, his last few weeks won me over just not as in terms of thinking that's the new him . But he won me back as someone who I think does have high upside but is an inconsistent runner and despite the talk that he can catch that's been a super low part of his game. That would be my biggest knock on him relative to his cost, the lack of passing game involvement. It makes him almost entirely reliant on rushing production/TD's for fantasy and he's been less then consistent in that regard but even great running backs have a hard time being consistent fantasy producers relative to RB's involved in pass catching game, especially in PPR. I could be wrong with him, was sure wrong when I kept him on my bench weeks 14 and 15 last year and cost myself $247K, but I got concerns with his consistency in large part to his running style and lack of passing game use to prop up his floor.
ffmail4me
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Well so I break it down as Henry being worth the 2020 1st plus Trubisky (who has little to any trade value) plus a fraction of Cook's value on that side. Less than half of Cook's value. That leaves more than half of Cook's value for Baker, Godwin and Arob. I personally think that is a little gross. But yeah I'm obviously bigger on Henry than the consensus.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Well I think Cook is worth more than Henry personally, so I thought the deal was pretty fair. I I lean towards the Cook side because an early 2020 1st is also very appealing but can see both sides. I do like Henry but he’s disappointed before.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
If what coaches say in March mattered we'd all be asking if 4 first round picks is enough to trade for Onterrio Smith, Jay Ajayi, or DaVante Parker right now.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Well I certainly think it's a fair deal. "Gross" is just me being an ###. I also like Godwin a lot.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
I know your exaggerating but I'll bite. Coach speak matters, but how much is debatable. Context is important. Here we have a guy who has done well every time a coach gives him the ball a bunch. Now we have a coach saying Henry is his guy. And Vrabel didnt say that last year.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I wish there were a better way to track it so we could have a better idea for sure, but I don't think it's that exaggerated.
Recent fun coach speak.
Davante Parker is the most dominant threat on the football field.
The redzone offense is going to be centered around Julio Jones (2017, he had 3 TDs that year)
Rashaad Penny is a 3 down back and he's the second best RB behind only Saquon Barkley.
He has 3 career games with 20+ carries.
33 carries 170 yards 5.2ypc
21 carries 84 yards 4.0ypc
28 carries 51 yards 1.8ypc
If we drop it to 18 carries that adds
19 carries 131 (6.9ypc)
18 carries 56 yards (3.1ypc)
18 carries 57 yards (3.2ypc)
So he's been above 4ypc in 2 out of 6 games where he saw 18+ carries.
He had a nice 4 game stretch to finish last season highlighted by one truly monster game. But lots of guys have had a short stretch of outlier great play mixed in to an otherwise mediocre career. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Henry ends up following that same path.
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cloppbeast
Footballguy
The power of thresholds. Reducing a career 4.6 ypc to not even 4.
You are right, he had a nice stretch last season. But it's not like he's been a bum in all his other games.
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Skeletore Eh
Footballguy
I don’t really understand this for the Michel owner.
I saw kerryon moved gor 1.08 and 2.08 in another league and thought that didn’t make sense for kerryon owner either
those two would likely be my 1.01 if they were coming out this year
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Agreed. What would make some one draft Sony somewhere between 1.04-1.06 last season and then sell for a loss after what he accomplished in the second half of the season and the playoffs?
Even ignoring what he showed in the NFL, Sony Michel would be the top rookie RB prospect in this draft class if he came out this year.
Well the original comment about Henry was being effective when given the ball a lot so I think those thresholds provided do a good job of outlining that when Henry gets the ball a lot in a game he isn't putting up great ypc numbers. Based on the conversation I think FreeBaGel used applicable thresholds.......not just random ones to make his point.
I traded him twice this offseason. One trade he was part of a package but the other trade was he was sold for a 2018#1 which is NOT guaranteed top 4 of even guaranteed to be a non-playoff team.
I've answered why earlier and don't want to type it all back out so won't get into a big exchange on it, you can look it up in this thread if you care for my thoughts on him but short version is I'm trying to not chaseTD's, his lack of involvement in the passing game was stunningly low and I think he's got a bum knee and maybe that was why he just never looked explosive to me. That being said I would NOT have traded him for 1.4-1.6 in this draft, but there are reasons that despite a strong playoff run I was looking to move him.
