Boston
Footballguy
You hit on it...it's not the win now thinking...it's the execution of the win now strategy...gotta get more then that to help you win now, especially if you are giving up two #1's.
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****OFFICIAL DYNASTY TRADES**** (17 Viewers)
- Thread starter Gottabesweet
- Start date
Wigglytuff's Gruff
Footballguy
Bailing on Brown so soon to jump up 4 spots?
Not for me.
Not for me.
Boston
Footballguy
I would be all over the Brown side of this...not close to me...Brown has a chance to be a real good one...he is a guy I have targeted in a big way and I could easily see a scenario where he out-produces any WR in this class or is right there with them in fantasy value...you have to remember that last year he was coming off of a major injury and still produced 46-584-7 in 14 games while also putting up 7-126 in the Ravens playoff game...he is a first round pick by probably the best drafting team in the NFL so that carries a ton of clout with me...to give that up for simply going from 12 to 8 doesn't do much for me, and you never know, the guy you like at 8 could fall to 12, probably not but this is not a major leap in draft position and Brown's upside is far too valuable to go from 1.12 to 1.8.
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
Unwrittenlaw
Footballguy
Traded 3.11, Thielen, 2021 2nd rd ( most likely mid to late), and Chase Claypool for Mike Evans in a 12 team ppr league
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
Is Mike Evans now devalued? Because I'd sure like him on my team.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
No, I'd guess that one is a real outlier.
I gave the 1.10, 2.09, and a 2021 1st for him just a couple days ago (see upthread).
rockaction
Footballguy
Yeah, that was the one I jokingly said you should haven't given the 2.09 for neatness' sake. Still quite the deal on your end.
kutta
Footballguy
No, he's not. I've just never been a big fan. He and Evans should be nowhere close in value in dynasty IMO.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
kutta
Footballguy
I guess I just took issue with the word “rubbish.” I agree Evans is worth much more.
Boston
Footballguy
The old nibble around the edges of your roster for a stud deal...doesn't happen often but when it does it's like watching the Triple Lindy.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Last 5 years:Boston said:
Jacobs, Sanders
Barkley, Guice
Fournette, Cook (just missed CMc and personally I had Mixon over Fournette)
Elliott, Treadwell (and I had Thomas 1.02 in my rankings but like an idiot tried to get cute and get him at 7 - missed out)
Gurley, Gordon
I like my chances and could easily win the trade.
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Boston
Footballguy
If you are comfortable doing it then you have a chance of winning that trade...for me I really can't see getting Michael Thomas being a lost trade...outside of getting Barkley because he was such an obvious elite player I would not trade Thomas for any of those scenarios unless (and some are enticing...but remember right now we are talking picks not players) my RB was a disaster (and in fairness that is with the benefit of knowing how a player like Gurley has ended up)...I will stick with Thomas knowing I have the consensus #1 WR who has a chance to remain in that slot for quite a few years...I can live with that...your decision could end up with some very nice upside but could also have a ton of downside.
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jtd13
Footballguy
12 team PPR, I gave: Zeke, Pollard + 2 2021 1sts (late, from champ and runner up in 2019)
Saquon+ 21 2nd and 3rd (late, from runner up)
I think it's an overpay, but I wanted to get Barkley, and I kept my additional 1st which has a chance to be high. I also figured 2 late 1sts next year are likely a couple more WRs, and I ended up with 3 rookie WRs I like in this draft.
Saquon+ 21 2nd and 3rd (late, from runner up)
I think it's an overpay, but I wanted to get Barkley, and I kept my additional 1st which has a chance to be high. I also figured 2 late 1sts next year are likely a couple more WRs, and I ended up with 3 rookie WRs I like in this draft.
I think MT has some legit risks as well. Not the kind of risks that would bury him but the kind of risks that would take him off his perch as the top WR and make him more of a low end WR1. While my guess is he just had the best season of his career I don't put risk on him for 2020, but in 2021 post-Brees.Then you got a 28 year old potential low end WR1 and you won't be able to sniff getting something like a CEH and Taylor for him.Boston said:
I understand MT did great with Teddy, a little off from what he did with Brees but nothing to worry about. But what if they actually go with Taysom Hill in 2021? As great as Michael Thomas is he is unique. Saw some stat PFF was tweeting out the other day about how he leads the league, by far, in pass attempts that travel less then 20 yards. 4% of his met this criteria, next lowest WR in the league was Beasley and Crowder around 8%. We got a high volume short yardage super efficient player in Thomas and he's sort of in the perfect system with the perfect QB and at least one of those things figures to change in 2021. I think he's got more risks of a value drop then people are factoring in right now and even if he does not, if one of CEH or Taylor hit, they can surpass his value.
So for me I think it's actually safer to take the picks.
Boston
Footballguy
I guess I should move on from this one because I just will never agree that picks are safer then what Thomas is...they are unknowns vs. a very much known quantity and the downside of this deal can be dramatic...one thing you did not mention is Payton who is one of the top offensive minds in the NFL...I feel very comfortable that the NO QB/offensive situation will be fine as long as he is there...I would not be surprised if he gets Winston squared away and he is the QB there for a good period of time but that is speculation...as I said I will stop beating a dead horse and just leave it saying while I fully understand the upside of this offer (and it is a fair one) I will take the conservative approach, not get greedy and keep Thomas as my franchise #1 WR.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
This again is a case of mixing up the "value" of picks versus that of players.
Would you trade Thomas for an unspecified 1.1 and 1.2? Maybe/probably not.
But would you trade Thomas for CEH/Taylor? Maybe/probably yes.
Would you trade Thomas for an unspecified 1.1 and 1.2? Maybe/probably not.
But would you trade Thomas for CEH/Taylor? Maybe/probably yes.
Maybe to the first, yes on the second.
Would you trade 1.4 in a startup straight up for 9 and pick 15? I think most would, maybe not all, but that's about their startup values right now in the leagues I play.
EBF
Footballguy
The trade-off with established veterans has always been that what you gain in security/proven track record, you lose in longevity potential/remaining shelf life. Thomas has already played four years in the league and those four seasons have inflated his dynasty price even though the points are done and gone. You don't get access to any of those seasons if you roster him now. He's only 27 and can potentially play 5-7 more years at a great level, but there's a pretty good chance that his career is halfway over already. What tends to happen with these guys is that by the time they reach the pinnacle of dynasty trade value, they only have a very short window where people are still willing to part with top value to obtain them. Fitz became hard to move around ages 29-30, even though he had a lot of great seasons left. AJ Green and Julio fell off fast in terms of trade value. These reigns are short because people don't want to pay for a 29-30 year old star. By then they will move on to somebody younger.
Thomas vs. a generic 1.01 + 1.02 rookie pick is a pretty interesting debate. The hit rate on rookies is not fantastic, but you get two bullets and if you land a Zeke or Barkley with one of those picks, you win the deal. For a contender, I probably just ride Thomas until he's toast. For a rebuilding roster, the picks may be the way to go.
Thomas vs. a generic 1.01 + 1.02 rookie pick is a pretty interesting debate. The hit rate on rookies is not fantastic, but you get two bullets and if you land a Zeke or Barkley with one of those picks, you win the deal. For a contender, I probably just ride Thomas until he's toast. For a rebuilding roster, the picks may be the way to go.
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
I totally agree with you. I don't think any argument that it is safer to go picks holds any water. He is young, doesn't drop any passes at all, played well with another QB, has a great coach, and WRs last longer than RBs. Plus, I agree that Winston could be there and MT is way better than Evans or Godwin. Taylor/CEH aren't on the same level as like Saquon or Zeke and go to situations where they won't be leaned on. No guarantee either are ever a top 5 RB even if they do hit. I think it is a fair trade and depends on your roster but I think any negative comments towards MT's value are wrong on here. Just an opinion but he is easily the WR1 and that is the safest move out there as a skill position player.
Pwingles
Footballguy
Your point is fair and could very well be true. In the end Im just not all in on the expectation of volume or the assumption of efficiency without it.
I also don't really buy that they are that great at evaluating wr talent in the drafting process. For example;
Breshad Perriman, Hayden Hurst, Miles Boykin, Jaleel Scott, Jordan Lasley, Chris Moore,Tommy Streeter, Michael Campanaro, Aaron Mellete, Tandon Doss, David Reed, Marcus Smith, Justin Harper, Yamon Figurs, Demetrus Williams...This is going back to '06. Prior to that they used 2 1st round picks on wr 1 averaged 37/492/2 over 7 seasons, 2 of which not with the ravens, the other 39/502/3 over 8 seasons, only 5 with the ravens
This is the list of wr theyve taken that have had any success, and if you want to add perriman to this list that is ok I guess
Torrey Smith (kinda), Darren Waller (drafted as a wr, plays a different pos on a diff team, has 1 season success)
Not to say they wont hit on one eventually like the lions a couple decades ago.
I think at this point next year, if you ask people if they would rather have a come combination with 2 of Lamb/Jeudy/Reagor/Jefferson/Akers, or Hollywood and 1 of Higgins/Ruggs/vaughn, this won't look close. At least, thats the plan. We are also assuming he wont re injure the lis franc, which iirc happens quite a lot
Boston
Footballguy
I don't understand your last paragraph...you would either have 1.7 and 1.8 or 1.7, 1.12 and Brown...so you would still get one of first group, Brown and one of the second group...big difference.
Also, you are using a lot of fodder for the WRs...Perriman is legit to bring up and Torey Smith (second round) can be as well but that is a long time ago and for playing with Flacco he was actualyl decent (Clayton in 05 was a #1 as well but that was 15 years ago)...the rest were nowhere near the prospect that Brown is.
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I think there is at least a 50% chance, probably better than that, that two years from now one of CEH/Taylor are worth more than Thomas.
I also think it's foolish to completely ignore any risk with Thomas. Two years ago the #1 dynasty WR was Odell Beckham. Three years ago the top 4 dynasty WRs were Beckham, Evans, Bryant, Green. The highest of them now is WR8.
I also think it's foolish to completely ignore any risk with Thomas. Two years ago the #1 dynasty WR was Odell Beckham. Three years ago the top 4 dynasty WRs were Beckham, Evans, Bryant, Green. The highest of them now is WR8.
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Good point and for me this one of those trades where it just depends on the specific circumstances of my team.
Minor deal in FFPC
Gave: 2021 5th
Got: Nyheim Hines
Strong chance he does not make my team when cuts are due but it's a fairly loaded team with some stud RB's but not a lot of RB depth so I figured I'd pay a 5th and see if he can crack my roster as my RB5 or something.
Gave: 2021 5th
Got: Nyheim Hines
Strong chance he does not make my team when cuts are due but it's a fairly loaded team with some stud RB's but not a lot of RB depth so I figured I'd pay a 5th and see if he can crack my roster as my RB5 or something.
Prefer 1.7/2.4 but I don't hate it for the new Connor team if they felt they needed a RB to compete.
Smokin Okie
Footballguy
Oops......meant to say 12 team PPR league.tangfoot said:
Zyphros
Footballguy
I would be buying Corey Davis all over the place, I'll always believe in him. But give me Breida here. That Dolphins backfield make a great pairing and Breida could even carve out a 60% share himself. I assume its 1 PPR not 1/2?Dez said:
It's a cheap shot on Hines who could be a big winner for Rivers being the new QB. I don't believe it goes that way since he just gets pushed down the depth chart with the Taylor addition, even if he is a specialty player. Mack might be the passing down option and Hines has a 10% snap share, very possible. It's cheap enough that I'll take the chance, but Hines is likely a bye week cut at best in FFPC.menobrown said:
Wait, you’re buying Davis all over the place, but not for Breida because he might get 60% of the Dolphins backfield workload? Does not compute. Then what would you buy him all over the place for? Robby Anderson?
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Regarding the Mike Thomas for picks 1 and 2 deal:
I will take the picks in most any scenario. If I had strong RBs and planned to leave the league in a year I would keep thomas.
Otherwise, gimme the picks. I probably draft a guy and trade for a guy. Or even move one of the picks for a couple mid 1sts this year if it was possible.
The value makes sense. Brees isnt playing forever either.
It probably hurts for this year.....if there is even a season.
I will take the picks in most any scenario. If I had strong RBs and planned to leave the league in a year I would keep thomas.
Otherwise, gimme the picks. I probably draft a guy and trade for a guy. Or even move one of the picks for a couple mid 1sts this year if it was possible.
The value makes sense. Brees isnt playing forever either.
It probably hurts for this year.....if there is even a season.
wgoldsph
Footballguy
Corey Davis is end of roster talent and breida is in a rbbc in Miami. So not only did you get a massive upgrade player wise, you also got a pick.Dez said:
I love your stuff my man, but this is just not the hill to die on.
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
I know Corey Davis is cheap but...
3.06 for Davis and 6.02
3.06 for Davis and 6.02
Zyphros
Footballguy
I can be a buyer of Davis and still think Breida + is the better side. I'd absolutely rather have Davis > Anderson but I think your question was tongue in cheek.
Yes, kind of. Guess I don’t see Breida (if at 60% of Miami’s backfield, and for how long?) as all that valuable. So makes me legitimately wonder what you’re buying him for? Like mid 3rd rookie values?
SwinganaMiss
Footballguy
How about this trade in 12-team SF PPR, TE premium ?
Tyreek Hill & Duke Johnson
Ekeler, Kirk, 2020 2.09
Tyreek Hill & Duke Johnson
Ekeler, Kirk, 2020 2.09
Ksquared
Footballguy
Got an interesting offer I am mulling over, curious to everyone's thoughts
Q/RR/WWW/T/K/D/F - 1 PPR
Offered - Mike Evans and 2021 1st (probably back half)
Give AJ Brown
Seems like I would be getting a quality WR 1B at age 26 plus a 1st for AJ who I love but does he have that much more upside than Evans. AJ went off the last 5 weeks last year, but do we really trust Tenn to keep passing a lot and Tanny to continue to look like the next R Gannon. Obviously Brady will not be long term in TB, for that matter Evans may be moved in the next season or two. I used my 2021 2nd in an earlier trade so it is tempting to get back a pick I can use next year. Curious everyone's thoughts or if this seems pretty balanced.
Q/RR/WWW/T/K/D/F - 1 PPR
Offered - Mike Evans and 2021 1st (probably back half)
Give AJ Brown
Seems like I would be getting a quality WR 1B at age 26 plus a 1st for AJ who I love but does he have that much more upside than Evans. AJ went off the last 5 weeks last year, but do we really trust Tenn to keep passing a lot and Tanny to continue to look like the next R Gannon. Obviously Brady will not be long term in TB, for that matter Evans may be moved in the next season or two. I used my 2021 2nd in an earlier trade so it is tempting to get back a pick I can use next year. Curious everyone's thoughts or if this seems pretty balanced.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I honestly don't get it as I don't see a ton of difference between the 1.12 and 1.08 in this class and Brown showed some flashes that he could be a very dangerous weapon as a rookie despite missing some time to injury.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Pwingles
Footballguy
Thats fair. I suppose I am just not as high on brown as others. He was my wr 5/6 and a boom bust type of guy with injury concerns, so in my eyes he wasnt as coveted.
I don't mind if I am wrong in the short term. Brown will prolly produce better than a lot of rookies this year, but I am looking to acquire alphas or at least end up in a higher volume role.
I dont see the 8-12 being the same at all. Personally I see a pretty big tier break after Jefferson, who i have at 9 overall. Ruggs, Higgins, Pittman, Aiyuk, Vaughn are all guys I like to a degree, but not looking to spend a first on. So instead of waiting and reaching for a guy I dont love, i overpaid for someone who I like more.
