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****OFFICIAL 2021 IN- SEASON DYNASTY TRADES****


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FFPC.  Just had this accepted almost immediately, which is always disconcerting.

Gave: Cam Akers, Calvin Ridley

Got: Devin Singletary, Diontae Johnson, Justin Jefferson

Would love to hear some thoughts on this.  Its a pretty balanced league, super active, and I have one of the top couple of rosters on paper.

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3 hours ago, Vandelay said:

Jackson for me.  Id take him over Burrow and three Tua's.

I can dig that. Would be an interesting thing to revisit in two years. It could be overwhelmingly in favor of the Burrow and Tua side, even if neither are quite the fantasy powerhouse Lamar is individually. 

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6 minutes ago, Vandelay said:

FFPC.  Just had this accepted almost immediately, which is always disconcerting.

Gave: Cam Akers, Calvin Ridley

Got: Devin Singletary, Diontae Johnson, Justin Jefferson

Would love to hear some thoughts on this.  Its a pretty balanced league, super active, and I have one of the top couple of rosters on paper.

Akers and Ridley for me.  I'm a believer in Akers.

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35 minutes ago, Vandelay said:

FFPC.  Just had this accepted almost immediately, which is always disconcerting.

Gave: Cam Akers, Calvin Ridley

Got: Devin Singletary, Diontae Johnson, Justin Jefferson

Would love to hear some thoughts on this.  Its a pretty balanced league, super active, and I have one of the top couple of rosters on paper.

I like your side. 

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50 minutes ago, Vandelay said:

FFPC.  Just had this accepted almost immediately, which is always disconcerting.

Gave: Cam Akers, Calvin Ridley

Got: Devin Singletary, Diontae Johnson, Justin Jefferson

Would love to hear some thoughts on this.  Its a pretty balanced league, super active, and I have one of the top couple of rosters on paper.

You killed that trade. Nice work. Singletary and Diontae will be in everybody's top 12 this time next year. 

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58 minutes ago, Vandelay said:

FFPC.  Just had this accepted almost immediately, which is always disconcerting.

Gave: Cam Akers, Calvin Ridley

Got: Devin Singletary, Diontae Johnson, Justin Jefferson

Would love to hear some thoughts on this.  Its a pretty balanced league, super active, and I have one of the top couple of rosters on paper.

I think it's about a dead heat, really. I'm not sold on Singletary, less so on Akers. You won by sheer volume?

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Thanks for the feedback.  My thought process here is that Singletary is the average of Akers' range of outcomes as I like his situation a lot but am unsure of the player.  Ridley is a definite asset but not sure how much extra ceiling he can produce, while Johnson and Jefferson to me both have 250-300 ppr point upside in the next season or two (yes I love Jefferson).  Thats a best case scenario of course but I still see it in the range of outcomes.

FTR, these are flex spots.  All three of these guys will be vying with Gallup, Lindsay, Jarwin, and Cohen for the two flexes FFPC offers.  The extra roster spot in this league isn't a huge concern as I can easily make other deals to recoup value before the season starts.

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13 minutes ago, Dr. BD said:

IMO people are way too high on Johnson. I think it was the FBG Dynasty Show this week that was talking about that, or UTH. I'm pretty sure it was Chad Parsons regardless, but IMO Johnson is very overrated. Jefferson I like but he's an unknown. IMO Ridley is about worth Jefferson + Johnson, but I'd take Ridley there; I don't think either of those 2 get to Ridleys status combined. Then it's Akers vs Singletary... That one is easy, give me Akers, and I'm not big on Akers. A lot more risk in your side, but if you believe in those three then I can see why you'd offer

Thanks, this makes me feel a lot better.

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2 hours ago, Vandelay said:

FFPC.  Just had this accepted almost immediately, which is always disconcerting.

Gave: Cam Akers, Calvin Ridley

Got: Devin Singletary, Diontae Johnson, Justin Jefferson

Would love to hear some thoughts on this.  Its a pretty balanced league, super active, and I have one of the top couple of rosters on paper.

I'd snap accept too. A stud WR and Cam Akers for 3 okay guys. Ouch man, you didn't think that one through

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3 minutes ago, Dr. BD said:

DLF trade analyzer has you over paying by the value of 1.12 :shrug:

Roto Underworld is not nearly so kind as that. Has him losing by 80 points. I'm not sure I agree with that at all. That's staggering. Then again, values get revised all the time and the whole point is to beat the market, not let the market dictate what is to be done.

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To wit: I traded Julio Jones and Derrius Guice for Matt Breida, Raheem Mostert, D.J. Chark and the 2.04 months ago. It had me losing big time.

Now, I'm considered the winner of that according to them. It's all about beating the market.

To be fair, If Guice does anything around RB2 I lose that trade, but I was really banking on him not giving much value and Breida's situation settling down, which it has for the moment. 

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3 minutes ago, Dr. BD said:

Yeah but you shouldn't over pay for a player you don't have to. Why buy a $10 stock at $50 when you don't need to... It increases your risk and gives you more to lose. Values aren't going anywhere as long as there's no minicamp news

Yeah, I agree. But there's two things: One is imperfect information in valuation. Stock prices are reflective of the concept of perfect knowledge. That is, everybody but the insiders know everything about the stock its value in the market is reflected by the price. But players aren't like that. They're subjective valuations, and their value to the owner is unknown in negotiation.

Secondly, the other thing is that I think with some owners the point is that they're using the calculators, too, and you really have to find value in other things other than the baked-in price. In other words, you're both starting from the point of the calc. You need to use your acumen and knowledge of the NFL to beat it. 

Edited by rockaction
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21 hours ago, Dr. BD said:

Yeah, I get it. Bottom line is you get the guys you believe in and don't worry about it. I just feel like adding those 2nds and 3rds when you're over paying gives you ammo to throw them in on a trade you're slightly under paying for to help out. This was a missed opportunity, not to mention likely made his starting lineup worse, but maybe he's really deep and it doesn't matter. In these cases I take the best player in the deal, which is Ridley. Akers is probably 2nd best player, which makes this a loss. He likes the 3 he got I bet, and that's all that matters. The fact that he posted it makes me think he knows he overpaid, and now he knows by how much. Likely doesn't matter to him in the end because he got his guys anyways. Best of luck to him on his season. I truly mean that even though he offers nothing to me but snark in return :)

Sure. Adding those picks is huge. Depends if that's a hang up in negotiations, though, and if the deal falls through as a result, were you willing to sacrifice the deal for the picks? Then it becomes a matter for personal decision-making to come into play.

And don't we always, after a good negotiation, think we've overpaid? Good negotiators get a sense of how much you value a guy and then adjust accordingly. Personally, I am not a good negotiator because in FF I start with really fair offers and find them spurned or pooh-poohed. Therefore, I'm willing to have to overpay and use knowledge to go forth in getting the players I want to assemble. Within reason, of course.

Edited by rockaction
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As much as I thought Ridley was really underrated when he was a rookie, I think he's a bit overvalued now. I traded him away in a one of my leagues this year and didn't feel too sad about it. He's a very good receiver, but the volume still isn't there and I'm not really sold that he's going to ever be more than a really solid #2 guy on a team, while it feels like he's considered a future #1 guy by most rankings I've seen.

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27 minutes ago, Dr. BD said:

Yeah, I get it. Bottom line is you get the guys you believe in and don't worry about it. I just feel like adding those 2nds and 3rds when you're over paying gives you ammo to throw them in on a trade you're slightly under paying for to help out. This was a missed opportunity, not to mention likely made his starting lineup worse, but maybe he's really deep and it doesn't matter. In these cases I take the best player in the deal, which is Ridley. Akers is probably 2nd best player, which makes this a loss. He likes the 3 he got I bet, and that's all that matters. The fact that he posted it makes me think he knows he overpaid, and now he knows by how much. Likely doesn't matter to him in the end because he got his guys anyways. Best of luck to him on his season. I truly mean that even though he offers nothing to me but snark in return :) people like him don't bother me, especially when they try as much as he does... Good luck Vandy, hope this one works out for you!

Nice edit.

I included some info about how it affects my starting lineup, you may have missed it.  I appreciate your thoughts and I didn't offer any snark.  I just generally disagree with you and prefer to be on the opposite side of the fence so it honestly makes me feel better about the result.  No offense intended.

Akers goes about a round higher than Ridley in startups, so he's considered the best player in this deal.  He was the bait.  Ill take the 2 WRs for the 1 all day so it really just depends on Singletary vs Akers IMHO.  Unless Akers blows up im probably gonna feel good about this one.  Thats the rub though, he might blow up.  And I probably could have squeezed more from the trading partner.  But I dont like to poison the well because I make a lot of deals.  Rather keep things simpatico than ask for too much.  Bottom line, I see several paths to winning this deal in a landslide.

Deginitly don't feel I overpaid.  I posted it because its a completed trades thread, thought it was interesting, and wanted feedback.  Appreciate all the comments so far.

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1 hour ago, BINGBING said:

I don't want to live in a world where people think Devin Singletary is better than Cam Akers.  Singletary is so good that they decided to draft a bigger, stronger, faster version of him.

Moss is decidedly not faster. In fact, he's slower than slow. He's bigger, granted. Only time is gonna tell on this deal.

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15 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Moss is decidedly not faster. In fact, he's slower than slow. He's bigger, granted. Only time is gonna tell on this deal.

20 lbs heavier and ran a fraction of a second faster 40.  That is a superior athlete.

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Just now, BINGBING said:

20 lbs heavier and ran a fraction of a second faster 40.  That is a superior athlete.

Didn't Singletary run a 4.66? Moss ran a 4.7. You can say his speed score is better, but not his forty time.

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Singletary tested terribly at the combine, as did Moss. Both players probably aren't best reflected in those measurements, though Football Outsiders notes that SIngletary is between Ahmad Bradshaw and Arian Foster levels of low speed scores in that testing.

Moss does not appear to be a superior athlete, though. I could see if you're directly comparing Akers and Singletary, but you're saying they drafted a superior athlete, which doesn't appear to be true right now. 

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4 hours ago, Vandelay said:

FFPC.  Just had this accepted almost immediately, which is always disconcerting.

Gave: Cam Akers, Calvin Ridley

Got: Devin Singletary, Diontae Johnson, Justin Jefferson

Would love to hear some thoughts on this.  Its a pretty balanced league, super active, and I have one of the top couple of rosters on paper.

I can't explain why but I have a weird sort of blind spot with Ridley where all I can see with him is that he isn't Julio, who I own in a lot of spots so I don't own Ridley. I also feel like I completely missed the boat on whatever the Diontae Johnson hype is about. I like Akers maybe a small margin over Singletary. But. I love Jefferson so I probably take that side all day. But perhaps similarly to your trade partner, I'd be wanting to flip DJ and Singletary, though Singletary is probably worth keeping in your RB stable. I feel like the DJ hype is out of control right now and you could really profit. 

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37 minutes ago, Chad Parsons said:

12tm 2QB PPR

Alvin Kamara, Davante Adams, Noah Fant, 4.05, 4.08, 21 4th

FOR

Cam Akers, JK Dobbins, AJ Green, Tyler Lockett, Evan Engram, 21 2nd, 21 3rd (both mid-ish)

Close one. The value right now is on the Kamara side. The other side could be worth infinite more this time next year. It comes down to how much you like to gamble.

39 minutes ago, Chad Parsons said:

12tm PPR

Kenny Golladay

FOR

Keenan Allen, 21 1st (mid, some early potential)

Allen side given the possibility of a mid-early 1st. Keen should be good for another 3-4 years min.

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16 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Didn't Singletary run a 4.66? Moss ran a 4.7. You can say his speed score is better, but not his forty time.

www.google.com has a 4.65.  It's splitting hairs either way.  They drafted another RB and that's not a positive sign.  I own Diontae in almost every league, and I think Jefferson is gonna be solid.  I still think the Akers and Ridley side is a landslide win.  You could swap out Moss with Vaughn or Dillon, who I prefer over Moss, and I would still favor The Akers/Ridley side.

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Just now, BINGBING said:

www.google.com has a 4.65.  It's splitting hairs either way.  They drafted another RB and that's not a positive sign.  I own Diontae in almost every league, and I think Jefferson is gonna be solid.  I still think the Akers and Ridley side is a landslide win.  You could swap out Moss with Vaughn or Dillon, who I prefer over Moss, and I would still favor The Akers/Ridley side.

Sure. I can see that. And you're right about the time. Moss ran a 4.65. I thought it was a 4.7. Maybe I was thinking of Quintez Cephus's really slow time (I think a bit above 4.7) and got the two confused because my first reaction from even highlights is that Moss isn't really explosive at all. 

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32 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

I can't explain why but I have a weird sort of blind spot with Ridley where all I can see with him is that he isn't Julio, who I own in a lot of spots so I don't own Ridley. I also feel like I completely missed the boat on whatever the Diontae Johnson hype is about. I like Akers maybe a small margin over Singletary. But. I love Jefferson so I probably take that side all day. But perhaps similarly to your trade partner, I'd be wanting to flip DJ and Singletary, though Singletary is probably worth keeping in your RB stable. I feel like the DJ hype is out of control right now and you could really profit. 

Good stuff.  Jefferson was my prime target on this, but I like DJ (though I feel this board is a tad nutso for him).  This trade could easily go either way, but the only way i'll really kick myself over it is if Akers becomes a 250ish+ ppr point rb.  I don't *quite* see that happening.

Edited by Vandelay
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2 minutes ago, Vandelay said:

Good stuff.  Jefferson was my prime target on this, but also I've DJ (though I feel this board is a tad nutso for him).  This trade could eazily go either wY, but the only way ill really kick myself over it is if Akers becomes a 250ish+ ppr point rb.  I don't *quite* see that happening.

I see it like:

Akers>Singletary

DJ~=Ridley

Jefferson>>>>>>>whatever gap exists after the first two pieces

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19 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Sure. I can see that. And you're right about the time. Moss ran a 4.65. I thought it was a 4.7. Maybe I was thinking of Quintez Cephus's really slow time (I think a bit above 4.7) and got the two confused because my first reaction from even highlights is that Moss isn't really explosive at all. 

I don't love Moss or Singletary trust me.  I've sadly ended up with a couple Moss shares by default.

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Just now, BINGBING said:

I don't love Moss or Singletary trust me.  I've sadly ended up with a couple Moss shares by default.

I gathered that. The real debate that I was contending was that Moss wasn't the superior athlete, but at least in terms of testing, he is. So that's me being wrong, actually.

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11 minutes ago, rockaction said:

I gathered that. The real debate that I was contending was that Moss wasn't the superior athlete, but at least in terms of testing, he is. So that's me being wrong, actually.

I was really just knocking Singletary to say that Akers and Ridley were the two best players in the trade.  I don't care for him or Moss, so trust me i'm not going down the "win an argument" road with either of these guys haha.

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13 minutes ago, rockaction said:

I gathered that. The real debate that I was contending was that Moss wasn't the superior athlete, but at least in terms of testing, he is. So that's me being wrong, actually.

Singletary tested poorly so I wasn't a fan until I saw him play. The guy just has it. It's his vision and instincts. They are (imo) elite. 

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Just now, BINGBING said:

I was really just knocking Singletary to say that Akers and Ridley were the two best players in the trade.  I don't care for him or Moss, so trust me i'm not going down the "win an argument" road with either of these guys haha.

Yeah, I also gathered that. You like Akers and Ridley as the two best guys in the trade, a very fair position to hold. I'm just admitting that in a side argument, you were right. I try to own it when wrong. It also instructs me that memory is at times faulty, and it's best to have dialogue rather than argue, which I used to do. It's a self-improvement thing, you know? Source your material. Get your facts right. Admit when your perception or grasp of the facts is off. All that stuff we all strive to do. 

Anyway, enough out of me about that. I honestly don't like Akers. Love Ridley. Like the trade for Vandelay. 

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6 hours ago, rockaction said:

To wit: I traded Julio Jones and Derrius Guice for Matt Breida, Raheem Mostert, D.J. Chark and the 2.04 months ago. It had me losing big time.

Now, I'm considered the winner of that according to them. It's all about beating the market.

To be fair, If Guice does anything around RB2 I lose that trade, but I was really banking on him not giving much value and Breida's situation settling down, which it has for the moment. 

While you can try to beat the market, it’s important to judge a trade the moment it passes. The moment your trade went through, you got spanked. Then three lucky outcomes occurred in your favour (Breida & Mostert’s situation improves and Guice situation gets worse) and IMO you’re still losing. Sure, try to beat the market but the initial trade has to be somewhat balanced

Edited by Edgar
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4 hours ago, Edgar said:

While you can try to beat the market, it’s important to judge a trade the moment it passes. The moment your trade went through, you got spanked. Then three lucky outcomes occurred in your favour (Breida & Mostert’s situation improves and Guice situation gets worse) and IMO you’re still losing. Sure, try to beat the market but the initial trade has to be somewhat balanced

I totally disagree with your characterization of it. RotoUnderground had it as even at the time. The other calcs didn't and I trusted Roto. They have Chark and Jones rated radically different for dynasty compared to most others, and I tend to agree with them.

And I disagree with your premise. There is no getting "spanked" at the time. There's only results in the end. I trust the process, which is this: The process is talent and situation. I knew Breida and Mostert would get chances because they've flashed big time stuff the past two years. Guice has one hundred yard game and nothing else the past two seasons. And now I have a 23 year-old at wideout instead of a 31 year old (who I think is awesome, by the way).

Easy trade for me to make, actually. 

I'd say I'll come back to eat crow, but my team got much younger at wideout, and not too much older at RB in Breida's case. Mostert is a different story. I also got a second-round pick that turned into Bryan Edwards from it. I don't think I'll be eating much crow.

I'm usually not that declarative on these boards, and I could be wrong, but I think I'll look back at that trade and just nod my head. At least I'll have made the decision that I was comfortable with.

Edited by rockaction
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31 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

I would rather have Taylor or CEH over Moore in dynasty leagues, especially if you have to start at least 2 RBs.

If the college b.o.a. thing is real, it should also apply to the NFL. DJ Moore had almost 1200 yards at age 22, that's pretty rare company. As much as I might like CEH or JT, they are still just rookie picks 32 and 45 which provides a lot less assurance than actual NFL performance. 

I'm really surprised people on here would take the pick over a young established player, one possibly/likely a stud. Basically giving 1 bird in the bush for 1 one in the hand, when I should have had to give 2. Honestly I would have gave a second late first to get DJM, but luckily didn't have to. 

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6 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

I'm really surprised people on here would take the pick over a young established player, one possibly/likely a stud. Basically giving 1 bird in the bush for 1 one in the hand, when I should have had to give 2. Honestly I would have gave a second late first to get DJM, but luckily didn't have to. 

I think one thing going against Moore long term is the uncertainty at QB (call me not convinced on Bridgewater) and I don't think they will be a very good team in the near future.  I can see Moore getting lots of double teaming. 

Edited by JohnnyU
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In terms of value, id probably want a 2nd or equivalent player added to the Moore side, but just on player preference I have it CHE>Moore>Taylor.

The small knock I have on Moore is I don't think he's a guy that will score a lot of TDs.  He's been light on them so far and I think it reflects who he is as a player more than bad luck.  If that's true, he probably lacks the high end ceiling you want, so I'd rather gamble on CHE.  Not really a Taylor guy though because I don't think he gets the receptions to be a stud back.

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I guess I'm not understanding the process here. Rough estimates put a first round rookie pick player to bust 50% of the time. So 2 years removed from taking DJ Moore with a mid 1st, after hes displayed he is what you thought he was, you're going to trade him for another 50/50 proposition. It's confusing.

Edited by cloppbeast
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