Jump to content
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

****OFFICIAL 2021 IN- SEASON DYNASTY TRADES****


Recommended Posts

9 minutes ago, King of the Jungle said:

I know some like both of those rookies (I don’t, but that is a different story) but boy I find it hard to believe that the Kamara owner could not have got more than that.

I agree with this comment. Roughly a 1.04 and the 1.07 for Kamara.....dunno. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 5/24/2020 at 6:14 PM, rockaction said:

I was reminded yesterday in reading about CEH why I, in particular, hate him as a prospect other than situation. His speed score is woeful, according to Football Outsiders.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, LSU
BackCAST Score: -36.1%
RecIndex: 0.18
Similar Historical Prospects: Ahmad Bradshaw, Christine Michael

Edwards-Helaire is the 2020 NFL draft's most overrated running back according to BackCAST. First, Edwards-Helaire has similar workload issues as Swift, except somewhat more severe. Edwards-Helaire was a complete non-factor as a freshman and played clear second fiddle to Nick Brossette, who would become an undrafted free agent, as a sophomore. Edwards-Helaire earned much more action as a junior, but even then LSU chose to give 140 carries to an assortment of freshman running backs. Moreover, when Edwards-Helaire did get the ball, he was only somewhat productive on a per play basis, averaging just under 5.6 yards per carry. To be fair, Edwards-Helaire was productive as a receiver, which could translate to receiving production in the NFL.

However, the real problem with Edwards-Helaire's projection is his size-speed combination, or lack thereof. Edwards-Helaire is only 207 pounds, which makes him one of the ten lightest backs invited to the combine. Despite his relatively small size, however, Edwards-Helaire recorded a slow 4.60-second 40-yard dash. The best drafted running back under 210 pounds that recorded a 40-yard dash of 4.60 seconds or worse is probably Ahmad Bradshaw, who had a couple of nice seasons with the Giants. The rest of the list is far less appealing: Ameer Abdullah, Mark Walton, Travis Stephens, Javon Ringer, Dee Brown, Kevin Taylor, Storm Johnson, and Shyrone Stith. None of those running backs made a sizeable impact in the NFL.

A second round pick -- where Edwards-Helaire is currently rated -- is a high price to pay for a running back, and it is an especially high price to pay for a running back without the historical markers of success, at least as a pure rusher. The question for NFL decision-makers on Edwards-Helaire is whether there is something great enough on his tape to offset the statistical evidence against his success - FO

40 dash times have almost nothing to do with play speed. Considering this is the basis for almost the entire negative review, I'll stay high on the player who had his best games against the biggest opponents.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Marauder said:

I meant never in any of my leagues.   Of course I'm not saying he never fell there in any FFPC leagues.  I already knew that NE got him there.  I also realized after I posted that I took him in 3 of those leagues so that skewed my numbers..  I still think him being there at 12 was pretty rare.  Maybe 20% chance?

I am in five FFPC non-SF leagues and he never made it past 1.08 in any of them.  1.08 in four of them and 1.06 in one.

ETA: I would imagine most FFPC leagues he goes either 1.08 or 1.09 with Jefferson in the other spot.  Vaughn creeps up into that range in some as well.

Edited by FreeBaGeL
Link to comment
Share on other sites

53 minutes ago, wgoldsph said:

40 dash times have almost nothing to do with play speed. Considering this is the basis for almost the entire negative review, I'll stay high on the player who had his best games against the biggest opponents.

Actually, their speed score correlates quite extensively with total yardage success in the pros. They call it the Arian Foster graph.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Bazinga! said:

12t ppr

Team A traded Swift and Vaughn

Team B (big rebuild) traded Kamara

Not a fan...need more than this to deal Kamara...Swift is a nice piece but if Johnson stays healthy that could be a RBBC for the next two years...as for Vaughn there's a lot of downside there...a lot of his value is where he got drafted and if Brady can not trust him he will be buried and if he is just Ok this year I gotta believe they bring in another quality RB to capitalize on the short Brady window...just don't see enough upside in this deal to give up a top 10 fantasy asset.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Actually, their speed score correlates quite extensively with total yardage success in the pros. They call it the Arian Foster graph.

 

1 hour ago, wgoldsph said:

40 dash times have almost nothing to do with play speed. Considering this is the basis for almost the entire negative review, I'll stay high on the player who had his best games against the biggest opponents.

 

Kareem Hunt ran a 4.66 and looked just fine in that KC offense while he was there.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

46 minutes ago, ffmail4me said:

Happened in one of my 12 team PPR dynasty leagues (not my team)

Team A gets: Parker, Jarwin, 1.1, and 2 2021 3rd rounders

Team B gets: Hill, Henderson, 2021 1st 

Thoughts? 

I'll take the Hill side but it seems super close. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Chad Parsons said:

Even without Speed Score, CEH is a very weak RB prospect historically, especially for the first round or two of the NFL Draft

Opinion wrapped up like a fact and with respect to that opinion I'll side with Brett Veach, Andy Reid,  most ex-NFL scouts working in the media and me.

Edited by menobrown
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 5/24/2020 at 3:14 PM, rockaction said:

I was reminded yesterday in reading about CEH why I, in particular, hate him as a prospect other than situation. His speed score is woeful, according to Football Outsiders.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, LSU
BackCAST Score: -36.1%
RecIndex: 0.18
Similar Historical Prospects: Ahmad Bradshaw, Christine Michael

Edwards-Helaire is the 2020 NFL draft's most overrated running back according to BackCAST. First, Edwards-Helaire has similar workload issues as Swift, except somewhat more severe. Edwards-Helaire was a complete non-factor as a freshman and played clear second fiddle to Nick Brossette, who would become an undrafted free agent, as a sophomore. Edwards-Helaire earned much more action as a junior, but even then LSU chose to give 140 carries to an assortment of freshman running backs. Moreover, when Edwards-Helaire did get the ball, he was only somewhat productive on a per play basis, averaging just under 5.6 yards per carry. To be fair, Edwards-Helaire was productive as a receiver, which could translate to receiving production in the NFL.

However, the real problem with Edwards-Helaire's projection is his size-speed combination, or lack thereof. Edwards-Helaire is only 207 pounds, which makes him one of the ten lightest backs invited to the combine. Despite his relatively small size, however, Edwards-Helaire recorded a slow 4.60-second 40-yard dash. The best drafted running back under 210 pounds that recorded a 40-yard dash of 4.60 seconds or worse is probably Ahmad Bradshaw, who had a couple of nice seasons with the Giants. The rest of the list is far less appealing: Ameer Abdullah, Mark Walton, Travis Stephens, Javon Ringer, Dee Brown, Kevin Taylor, Storm Johnson, and Shyrone Stith. None of those running backs made a sizeable impact in the NFL.

A second round pick -- where Edwards-Helaire is currently rated -- is a high price to pay for a running back, and it is an especially high price to pay for a running back without the historical markers of success, at least as a pure rusher. The question for NFL decision-makers on Edwards-Helaire is whether there is something great enough on his tape to offset the statistical evidence against his success - FO

This is going to age like milk, IMO. I posted this in the Clyde thread:

I've been saying this for a few years, but hear me out:

The NFL consistently undervalues very short RBs.

The problem is that when evaluators talk about "size" they tend to focus completely on weight, when in reality it's the height/weight combination that's more telling. For example, Ray Rice was "undersized" if you isolate weight as the single variable because he only weighed 199 pounds at the combine. However, when you factor height into the equation and look at the resulting BMI, he ends up at 30.3, which is right in line with a typical franchise RB. So essentially he had the same proportions as a "big" RB, but just packed onto a slightly smaller frame. Let's look at some other case studies:

 

Brian Westbrook (Rd 3, 2002) - 5' 8.4", 200 - 30.1 BMI

Darren Sproles (Rd. 4, 2005) - 5' 6.13", 187 - 30.1 BMI

Maurice Jones-Drew (Rd. 2, 2006) - 5' 6.75", 207 - 32.7 BMI

Dion Lewis (Rd. 5, 2011) - 5' 6.63", 193 - 30.6 BMI

Devonta Freeman (Rd 4, 2014) - 5' 8.25", 206 - 31.1 BMI

Branden Oliver (UDFA, 2014) - 5' 8", 208 - 31.6 BMI    (NOTE: Oliver did not get a combine invite, so we don't have his "real" height. I suspect it's lower.)

 

Literally every guy on this list crushed the draft capital spent to acquire him. Have there been some misses? Yes. Ryan Moats was a bust. Quizz Rodgers did not pan out. Not every short RB is guaranteed to make it in the NFL, but even the very best short RBs of the past decade were underdrafted relative to their true value.

Why is this? Because a lot of evaluators are still stuck into a flawed mindset where height = size, when actually it is the relative weight that tells you more about functional strength and power (it is the same at WR with people like Deebo, Steve Smith, Boldin, etc).

So guess what? That "speed score" stuff is pretty worthless, especially with a 5' 8" RB like Clyde. At 5' 8" 205 he is a "small" back, but actually his BMI of 31.2 is near the high end of the scale, creeping towards "big back" territory. One look at this guy tells you he never skips leg day. And just like how a 4.5 40 time isn't the kiss of death for "big" WRs like Fitzgerald, JuJu, and Hopkins, a 4.6 time isn't automatically the end of the world for a power back like Clyde.

 

Clyde is pretty good, IMO. Basically the second coming of Mark Ingram, but with Prime Mahomes and a no strong RBBC vulture.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, ffmail4me said:

Happened in one of my 12 team PPR dynasty leagues (not my team)

Team A gets: Parker, Jarwin, 1.1, and 2 2021 3rd rounders

Team B gets: Hill, Henderson, 2021 1st 

Thoughts? 

Tyreek Hill in a landslide. 
Hill>1.01

Henderson~Parker

1st>Jarwin and change

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Edgar said:

Tyreek Hill in a landslide. 
Hill>1.01

Henderson~Parker

1st>Jarwin and change

I'd bet if most people broke down the parts of this trade like this they would not thought to have a  Henderson vs Parker section.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

33 minutes ago, EBF said:

This is going to age like milk, IMO. I posted this in the Clyde thread:

A) Speed score is wildly different than Hunt running a 4.66, contrary to the naysayers that it's the same. It's not. It's BMI measured against your forty time. Edwards-Helaire is one of the shortest, lightest backs at the combine and couldn't break 4.6

B) Not sure what posting a bunch of successful guys who weren't taken in the first has anything to do with draft capital in the first like KC used.

My thoughts on CEH, when he can't get out of his own way in the pros and winds up sitting or stinking, are going to age like fine wine, just like when I hated Eddie Lacy and Trent Richardson and the Bama backs and said so repeatedly on these boards.

eta* Bro, I've been reading you for years and you own five shares of Devin Duvernay this time around. Color me skeptical about your analysis.

eta2* And, bro, you don't even have his height right. He's 5'7". 

Edited by rockaction
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, rockaction said:

A) Speed score is wildly different than Hunt running a 4.66, contrary to the naysayers that it's the same. It's not. It's BMI measured against your forty time.

This makes no sense.  Clyde's bmi is HIGHER than Hunt's.  So his speed score should be better then, right?

ETA: Just looked it up, it looks like speed score is weight measured against 40 time, not BMI.  I doubt you're going to win EBF over with this one as he has been adamant for a while now on the importance of BMI over weight I believe.

Edited by FreeBaGeL
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, FreeBaGeL said:

This makes no sense.  Clyde's bmi is HIGHER than Hunt's.  So his speed score should be better then, right?

Sorry, I have BMI on the brain because of EBF's post.

This is speed score:

"Created by Bill Barnwell and introduced in Pro Football Prospectus and ESPN Insider back in 2008, Speed Score is one of Football Outsiders' metrics for evaluating running back prospects. It's built on the simple idea that smaller backs tend to run faster than larger backs, so we should be more impressed by a 4.5-second 40-yard dash from a 220-pound back than the same clock reading from a 170-pound back. As such, Speed Score incorporates a back's official time in the 40-yard dash with his weight to produce a measure of his speed given his size using this formula:

(Weight * 200)/(40 time^4)

The average running back who makes it to the NFL will have a Speed Score around 100.0, with most prospects at the position falling between 85.0 and 110.0."

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

FWIW on the Hunt discussion it looks like Hunt's speed score was 94.8, so not that huge of a difference.

It does look like the stat has been fairly predictive though, at least as far back as I could find data (2014).  Hunt is really the only notable stud that came in under 95.

Edited by FreeBaGeL
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

FWIW on the Hunt discussion it looks like Hunt's speed score was 94.8, so not that huge of a difference.

It does look like the stat has been fairly predictive though, at least as far back as I could find data (2014).  Hunt is really the only notable stud that came in under 95.

I'm surprised by Hunt's low score. Usually the cut off for studs is their Arian Foster cutoff, with a speed score of around 91. Nobody scoring that low has been as productive, from my understanding. He's the outlier below the threshhold of 95. He's the 1.3% of guys you'll see being successful in the graph I link below.

For all interested, here's the graph, embedded in a tweet within the article

https://twitter.com/BryKno/status/1233250735980195840?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1233250735980195840&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.footballoutsiders.com%2Fstat-analysis%2F2020%2Fspeed-score-2020

For all interested, here's an article about speed score and the 2020 combine.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2020/speed-score-2020

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You know what? I can't tell whether Edwards-Helaire is going to be great. All I can do is look at all the forms of evidence and decide. His film, which impressed a lot of people, is going to be lost on me because I'm not a professional film watcher. I personally saw an undersized, weighty guy that wasn't necessarily as agile and fast as the other backs I looked at.

I see that he had one good year, and was decidedly behind undrafted talent during his peak years.
He's a got a bad speed score, which leads to questions about his athleticism
He's undersized height-wise, which is probably lowest on the totem pole here...

I don't see much. His pros are that Andy Reid likes him and he succeeded, largely through the air, against stiff competition.

So that's it. Everyone knows my view on him. I'll go away now. I just thought it gave credence to everyone wondering why someone wouldn't like him as a prospect. His measurables and performance didn't dictate his draft capital, so it's either everyone else missed or he's a house of cards.
 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

54 minutes ago, Edgar said:

Tyreek Hill in a landslide. 
Hill>1.01

Henderson~Parker

1st>Jarwin and change

I am the team receiving Hill and thought it was fair. I don’t have Henderson anywhere near Parker value. I’m in a two year rebuild and not sure how I feel about CEH and thought I’d take the surer thing with Hill. I have four 1sts this year and three 1sts next year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Atomic Punk said:

I am the team receiving Hill and thought it was fair. I don’t have Henderson anywhere near Parker value. I’m in a two year rebuild and not sure how I feel about CEH and thought I’d take the surer thing with Hill. I have four 1sts this year and three 1sts next year.

Tyreek + Henderson>1.01 + Parker

1st>Jarwin + 2 3rds

Well done.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Atomic Punk said:

I am the team receiving Hill and thought it was fair. I don’t have Henderson anywhere near Parker value. I’m in a two year rebuild and not sure how I feel about CEH and thought I’d take the surer thing with Hill. I have four 1sts this year and three 1sts next year.

its definitely fair.  Would depend on team needs for me but stud RBs are still king.  If CHE becomes that you lose, but on the other hand you know what you got with Tyreek.

I'd want to know what the estimate on the 1st is.  Also Jarwin is an underrated piece if its TE premium.

No issue with you side at all but its not a landslide because RB always trumps WR.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 hours ago, Marauder said:

You should feel really fortunate that Reagor fell to you.   In my 6 non-superflex FFPC leagues, Reagor never fell below 1.09.

Just curious how you would feel about it now if you had your choice of Higgins, Pittman, Mims there? 

I felt it was a pretty deep draft and there would be good players (like the 3 u listed) available there and would have been fine taking one of them (probably Higgins). Definitely feel fortunate, in 5 other fpc rookie drafts he went as early as 6 but never later than 11. (ftr, a non DCook owner took Mattison at 1.10 smh)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, King of the Jungle said:

What are the other factors you are basing this off?

Age-based production (a huge one), recruiting (which actually matters at RB and MUCH less at other skill positions projecting to the NFL). Yes, BMI is a factor (it's actually part of my formula) but raw weight is also a blended factor. So if you are lower in weight, yes shorter is better which helps CEH, but you would still rather have a guy who is 210, 215, 220+ than 200 or 205 historically. And the biggest thing is having the other options this year in the other top backs. If CEH were in the class last year with Henderson, Singletary, etc, sure no problem, post him at RB1 and move on, but this year is far different.

Maybe the situation is so darn good it doesn't matter. Maybe CEH only has to be okay to thrive with the Chiefs. Maybe that's all that is required of a back there to soak up touches and 10+ touchdowns. We will see. But betting overtly on rookie situation is a dangerous game. If the Chiefs landing spot is the biggest driver for folks drafting CEH at 1.01 post-NFL Draft who would not have taken him in the top-3 or even top-5 pre-draft, then I think that's poor process.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Vandelay said:

its definitely fair.  Would depend on team needs for me but stud RBs are still king.  If CHE becomes that you lose, but on the other hand you know what you got with Tyreek.

I'd want to know what the estimate on the 1st is.  Also Jarwin is an underrated piece if its TE premium.

No issue with you side at all but its not a landslide because RB always trumps WR.

I agree with this too. I like Jarwin a lot, my only concern with him is whether there are enough targets to go around in Dallas. This isn’t a TE premium league, so I didn’t mind adding him to the deal to make it happen. Hard to estimate on the 1st. I could see him winning it all or not making the playoffs, so I’d put it as a mid 1st.

I can’t put my finger on it but I’m just not thrilled with the top end of this class anymore and will unload for proven young talent like Hill if I have the chance.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Dr. BD said:

This. As I stated in the CEH thread, we didn’t hear about how elite his lateral agility was and how he was better than Brian Westbrook, or the best RB in the class hands down from nearly as many who are parroting that now (to be fair, many were). And the whole “I wait until after the nfl draft to evaluate rookies” is just as bad of a process as putting so much weight on landing spot IMO

I don't fully agree with this...it is not just about landing spot (Vaughn would be an example of that)...it is the fact one of the best organizations in football used their first round pick/drafted CEH with every other RB on the board...that counts more to me then what "draft experts" think...this is not a fourth round pick going to a good situation, it is much deeper then that.

Edited by Boston
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, Dr. BD said:

This. As I stated in the CEH thread, we didn’t hear about how elite his lateral agility was and how he was better than Brian Westbrook, or the best RB in the class hands down from nearly as many who are parroting that now (to be fair, many were). And the whole “I wait until after the nfl draft to evaluate rookies” is just as bad of a process as putting so much weight on landing spot IMO

I've always been much higher than the consensus on CEH, but there has certainly been new information to come out since some people had him further back.  The "better than Brian Westbrook" quote isn't just something people suddenly started saying.  It's something that one of the best RB evaluating head coaches in the NFL said while putting his money where his mouth is.  That is markably noteworthy new information.

Like @Boston said above, this isn't people drafting a 4th round RB because of situation.  This is people trusting in Andy Reid's evaluation of RBs over draftniks with half the track record of him.

 

7 minutes ago, Dr. BD said:

In your opinion should Ruggs be the first wr drafted in rookie drafts?

Ruggs is obviously different because he was pretty clearly drafted in the NFL to fill a different role than what fantasy drafters are looking for.  Andy Reid is looking only for production with CEH which directly aligns with FF goals.  The Raiders drafted Ruggs knowing they get a lot of value out of him even when he's not catching the ball, which is useless to fantasy owners.

Edited by FreeBaGeL
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Dr. BD said:

In your opinion should Ruggs be the first wr drafted in rookie drafts?

That is not what I am getting at...you are being generic...my point is that CEH was not just the first RB taken, he was taken by one of the top organizations in football...that carries weight with me.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 5/23/2020 at 7:01 PM, Chad Parsons said:

12tm 2QB PPR

Alvin Kamara, Davante Adams, Noah Fant, 4.05, 4.08, 21 4th

FOR

Cam Akers, JK Dobbins, AJ Green, Tyler Lockett, Evan Engram, 21 2nd, 21 3rd (both mid-ish)

I don't really like this trade at all.  The 2 best players are on one side for a small upgrade in picks, an injury prone TE, injury prone WR on the down slope of his career, and 2 rookie RBs that may never amount to anything.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

In the context of 'one of the best organizations in football used a high pick on a player' - does that mean Sony Michel should have been a high 1st that year? He would be an example of a team drafted a player not consensus that high pre-draft and moved up in dynasty drafts as a result I can recently recall.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Chad Parsons said:

Age-based production (a huge one), recruiting (which actually matters at RB and MUCH less at other skill positions projecting to the NFL). Yes, BMI is a factor (it's actually part of my formula) but raw weight is also a blended factor. So if you are lower in weight, yes shorter is better which helps CEH, but you would still rather have a guy who is 210, 215, 220+ than 200 or 205 historically. And the biggest thing is having the other options this year in the other top backs. If CEH were in the class last year with Henderson, Singletary, etc, sure no problem, post him at RB1 and move on, but this year is far different.

Maybe the situation is so darn good it doesn't matter. Maybe CEH only has to be okay to thrive with the Chiefs. Maybe that's all that is required of a back there to soak up touches and 10+ touchdowns. We will see. But betting overtly on rookie situation is a dangerous game. If the Chiefs landing spot is the biggest driver for folks drafting CEH at 1.01 post-NFL Draft who would not have taken him in the top-3 or even top-5 pre-draft, then I think that's poor process.

I'd argue having a top 3 or top 5 predraft is poor process.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

For those who don't really rank rookies pre-NFL Draft - how do you (or would you) handle rookies in a dynasty startup draft or a rookie draft which occurs before the NFL Draft? Simply fade all rookies due to letting the draft play out? Not ever be in one of those drafts/leagues to start with?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Chad Parsons said:

In the context of 'one of the best organizations in football used a high pick on a player' - does that mean Sony Michel should have been a high 1st that year? He would be an example of a team drafted a player not consensus that high pre-draft and moved up in dynasty drafts as a result I can recently recall.

People were very high on Sony pre-draft.

NE is a good organization but doesn't have a particularly good track record drafting RBs or WRs.  That's different than Andy Reid the RB whisperer going to bat for a guy as the one of if not the best RB he's ever drafted.

Again I was very high on CEH pre-draft so this is irrelevant to me, but it's silly to not re-evaluate after something like this happens.  We always talk about draft capital, not pre-draft capital.  It's irrelevant that Lamar Jackson was considered a 4th round prospect in February the year he came out when he was drafted in the 1st round of the actual draft in April.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

27 minutes ago, hispeedthinmint said:

So then you put more stock in landing spot

I did not say that in a general way...if a subpar franchise took CEH in the first it would not have anywhere near the influence like a team like KC.

Edited by Boston
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, FreeBaGeL said:

People were very high on Sony pre-draft.

NE is a good organization but doesn't have a particularly good track record drafting RBs or WRs.  That's different than Andy Reid the RB whisperer going to bat for a guy as the one of if not the best RB he's ever drafted.

Again I was very high on CEH pre-draft so this is irrelevant to me, but it's silly to not re-evaluate after something like this happens.  We always talk about draft capital, not pre-draft capital.  It's irrelevant that Lamar Jackson was considered a 4th round prospect in February the year he came out when he was drafted in the 1st round of the actual draft in April.

For the record, I did move up CEH post-draft. The biggest reason was going 32 overall instead of 60-90 overall where many mock drafts, etc had him estimated pre-draft.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Chad Parsons said:

For those who don't really rank rookies pre-NFL Draft - how do you (or would you) handle rookies in a dynasty startup draft or a rookie draft which occurs before the NFL Draft? Simply fade all rookies due to letting the draft play out? Not ever be in one of those drafts/leagues to start with?

Personally I'm not in a league that follows this calendar.  If I were, I'd just do my best with the information available.  

Running back is so situationally dependant IMO that I think its bad process to rank them before knowing landing spots.  Ill study them all day long, but just trying to complete the picture of who they are as a prospect.  Then check the fit with the team that drafts them.  With CHE, its hand in glove.  I liked a lot of things about the player and he went to the perfect spot and was taken before any other RBs, which made him an easy 1.01 for me.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

People were very high on Sony pre-draft.

NE is a good organization but doesn't have a particularly good track record drafting RBs or WRs.  That's different than Andy Reid the RB whisperer going to bat for a guy as the one of if not the best RB he's ever drafted.

Again I was very high on CEH pre-draft so this is irrelevant to me, but it's silly to not re-evaluate after something like this happens.  We always talk about draft capital, not pre-draft capital.  It's irrelevant that Lamar Jackson was considered a 4th round prospect in February the year he came out when he was drafted in the 1st round of the actual draft in April.

In general wading into the Patriots RB swamp is usually more of a fantasy headache then a plus.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 5/24/2020 at 3:14 PM, rockaction said:

I was reminded yesterday in reading about CEH why I, in particular, hate him as a prospect other than situation. His speed score is woeful, according to Football Outsiders.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, LSU
BackCAST Score: -36.1%
RecIndex: 0.18
Similar Historical Prospects: Ahmad Bradshaw, Christine Michael

Edwards-Helaire is the 2020 NFL draft's most overrated running back according to BackCAST. First, Edwards-Helaire has similar workload issues as Swift, except somewhat more severe. Edwards-Helaire was a complete non-factor as a freshman and played clear second fiddle to Nick Brossette, who would become an undrafted free agent, as a sophomore. Edwards-Helaire earned much more action as a junior, but even then LSU chose to give 140 carries to an assortment of freshman running backs. Moreover, when Edwards-Helaire did get the ball, he was only somewhat productive on a per play basis, averaging just under 5.6 yards per carry. To be fair, Edwards-Helaire was productive as a receiver, which could translate to receiving production in the NFL.

However, the real problem with Edwards-Helaire's projection is his size-speed combination, or lack thereof. Edwards-Helaire is only 207 pounds, which makes him one of the ten lightest backs invited to the combine. Despite his relatively small size, however, Edwards-Helaire recorded a slow 4.60-second 40-yard dash. The best drafted running back under 210 pounds that recorded a 40-yard dash of 4.60 seconds or worse is probably Ahmad Bradshaw, who had a couple of nice seasons with the Giants. The rest of the list is far less appealing: Ameer Abdullah, Mark Walton, Travis Stephens, Javon Ringer, Dee Brown, Kevin Taylor, Storm Johnson, and Shyrone Stith. None of those running backs made a sizeable impact in the NFL.

A second round pick -- where Edwards-Helaire is currently rated -- is a high price to pay for a running back, and it is an especially high price to pay for a running back without the historical markers of success, at least as a pure rusher. The question for NFL decision-makers on Edwards-Helaire is whether there is something great enough on his tape to offset the statistical evidence against his success - FO

While everything you are saying is correct, you are forgetting what Andy Reid has done for RBs and he actually values CEH that high.  Go back and look at how many years Reid has had a top 10 RB on his team.  All of the time.  And he is calling CEH a better Bryan Westbrook.  I think he believes the benefit of the doubt with his track record.  Also, passing means the world to KC, along with the fact that he will face 6 man boxes all of the time.  You guys are looking at stats way too much at this point.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, ffmail4me said:

Someone tell me this wasn't stupid...lol. 12 team PPR dynasty league

Traded: Njoku for 3.9 rookie pick. 

My team needs WR and RB help more than Njoku but I just couldn't get much anything for him. Solid move or dumb on my part?

Not stupid. His own NFL team gave up on Njoku, why wouldn't you? 

Another talented guy that just can't put it together.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Gottabesweet changed the title to ****OFFICIAL 2021 IN- SEASON DYNASTY TRADES****

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
  • Create New...