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****OFFICIAL 2021 IN- SEASON DYNASTY TRADES****


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21 hours ago, menobrown said:

I hear this a lot, this 3 year window. My question is why the arbitrary amount of 3 years? I never hear a 2 or 4 year window, I truly never understood why the 3 year window was  so key for a lot of people.

 

I'll add to the other couple of responses I saw.

"This" year is pretty well too late by June, you're pot committed.  Next year is 2 years and and both very predictable overall for veteran/established players that you can feel pretty comfortable plus well withing most rebuild windows so you can go get aging vets from rebuilders cheap - Kelce, AJ Green, Rivers can all be had for a lot less than a couple years ago.  Brees/Ben/Brady probably play another year but you're definitely deep into a succession plan.  Julio and AJ Green may start slides, Hopkins will still be going strong, AB will still be bat#### crazy, and Marvin Jones should still be a solid plugin WR.  Goedert should finally be out from under Ertz one way or another. 

That 3rd year out is when you start getting uncomfortable.  Now if Brees is gone and Jameis didn't stick around who's throwing to Michael Thomas?  EZE and Kamara are 28 to start the season.  JJSS is signing somewhere for Tyrell Williams money (and role).  Even Russell Wilson is 34 - here's our first mobile/next gen QB showing age, what's that long term prognosis looking like?  Where will Matt Ryan be?  The other big factor is how fast RB's fall off.  Looking more than three years out on an RB just isn't safe at all.  Look where people were on Fournette three years ago.  David Johnson was in the conversation for 1.01.  Gurley was untouchable.  Jordan Howard was a 22 year old young bull coming off a top 10 season and Spencer Ware had a stranglehold on the KCC backfield!  (I hope all those guys mocking me for caution on him like the taste of cooked crow.)

3 years is actually a short window in FF.  It's real easy to get unlucky one year and miss the playoffs despite being 9-4 or being 91% in all-play but running into those one week wonders in the playoffs.   Now suddenly you're three years later, you have $75 in your pocket from a single third place finish, and your RB are Le'Veon Bell, DeVonta Freeman, and Mark Ingram (you've long since moved on from Jay Ajayi and Lamar Miller) and you don't have a plan.

And I'll re-state a huge piece - rookies.  Not only do you kind of have to give them minimum 2 years but likely three to know what you have, but they significantly alter your long-term plans when they hit.  You might think you're all set for 10 years with Mahomes and DJ Moore but what if Eason becomes the next Rivers?  Given that's a nice problem to have, but had you given 3 1sts for Mahomes to wrap the position up for the next 10 years you might have a significant overinvestment on your hands.  Now if your RB's Kareem Hunt you you're really in trouble cause you aren't getting Barkley for Mahomes.

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21 hours ago, NE_REVIVAL said:

Surprised, i thought every1 would hate it, maybe its my man love for arob. 

 

Wow the other team got smoked...why would a last place team make this trade?

Never been a huge fan of Robinson.

Edited by JoeSteeler
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59 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

I'll add to the other couple of responses I saw.

"This" year is pretty well too late by June, you're pot committed.  Next year is 2 years and and both very predictable overall for veteran/established players that you can feel pretty comfortable plus well withing most rebuild windows so you can go get aging vets from rebuilders cheap - Kelce, AJ Green, Rivers can all be had for a lot less than a couple years ago.  Brees/Ben/Brady probably play another year but you're definitely deep into a succession plan.  Julio and AJ Green may start slides, Hopkins will still be going strong, AB will still be bat#### crazy, and Marvin Jones should still be a solid plugin WR.  Goedert should finally be out from under Ertz one way or another. 

That 3rd year out is when you start getting uncomfortable.  Now if Brees is gone and Jameis didn't stick around who's throwing to Michael Thomas?  EZE and Kamara are 28 to start the season.  JJSS is signing somewhere for Tyrell Williams money (and role).  Even Russell Wilson is 34 - here's our first mobile/next gen QB showing age, what's that long term prognosis looking like?  Where will Matt Ryan be?  The other big factor is how fast RB's fall off.  Looking more than three years out on an RB just isn't safe at all.  Look where people were on Fournette three years ago.  David Johnson was in the conversation for 1.01.  Gurley was untouchable.  Jordan Howard was a 22 year old young bull coming off a top 10 season and Spencer Ware had a stranglehold on the KCC backfield!  (I hope all those guys mocking me for caution on him like the taste of cooked crow.)

3 years is actually a short window in FF.  It's real easy to get unlucky one year and miss the playoffs despite being 9-4 or being 91% in all-play but running into those one week wonders in the playoffs.   Now suddenly you're three years later, you have $75 in your pocket from a single third place finish, and your RB are Le'Veon Bell, DeVonta Freeman, and Mark Ingram (you've long since moved on from Jay Ajayi and Lamar Miller) and you don't have a plan.

And I'll re-state a huge piece - rookies.  Not only do you kind of have to give them minimum 2 years but likely three to know what you have, but they significantly alter your long-term plans when they hit.  You might think you're all set for 10 years with Mahomes and DJ Moore but what if Eason becomes the next Rivers?  Given that's a nice problem to have, but had you given 3 1sts for Mahomes to wrap the position up for the next 10 years you might have a significant overinvestment on your hands.  Now if your RB's Kareem Hunt you you're really in trouble cause you aren't getting Barkley for Mahomes.

Appreciate the response.

I actually think 3 years is to long and since I play mainly in FFPC I don't have 2 years even to asses most rookies. If I spend a first round pick on your that normally buys you that second year, other than that all bets are off.

I still view this 3 year outlook as arbitrary if not to long.

This is much more of a year to year sport with regards to assessing team. Granted you got some teams so good at times you know it would take crazy chain of events impacting multiple players to make the team bad but for the most part I'm analyzing the respective team itself year to year, if not sooner.

Gurley who you referenced would be an example. When his injury hit him late in the 2018 season I owned him just under half my teams. Watching him in the playoffs and reading the reports I felt pretty strongly that the guy who was just a 26 PPG RB for me the last two years was no more, I went from a difference maker to a solid RB2 just like that. That kind of thing is massively impactful for teams and I adjusted.

With regards to players I look at them case by case. Can't tell the future but that's part of what dynasty is about, trying to get a handle on it. But for sure I have had players I viewed as 3+ years of value to me that went well and above that.

So for me I view teams closer to year to year, players I tend to view in a different lense as I will try and predict the range of their future outcome based on age, contract, age/contract of supporting cast and coaching. Win some, lose some.

But what I don't do is just view everything out of some 3 year lense, it's a lot more nuanced.

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3 hours ago, menobrown said:

Appreciate the response.

I actually think 3 years is to long and since I play mainly in FFPC I don't have 2 years even to asses most rookies. If I spend a first round pick on your that normally buys you that second year, other than that all bets are off.

I still view this 3 year outlook as arbitrary if not to long.

This is much more of a year to year sport with regards to assessing team. Granted you got some teams so good at times you know it would take crazy chain of events impacting multiple players to make the team bad but for the most part I'm analyzing the respective team itself year to year, if not sooner.

Gurley who you referenced would be an example. When his injury hit him late in the 2018 season I owned him just under half my teams. Watching him in the playoffs and reading the reports I felt pretty strongly that the guy who was just a 26 PPG RB for me the last two years was no more, I went from a difference maker to a solid RB2 just like that. That kind of thing is massively impactful for teams and I adjusted.

With regards to players I look at them case by case. Can't tell the future but that's part of what dynasty is about, trying to get a handle on it. But for sure I have had players I viewed as 3+ years of value to me that went well and above that.

So for me I view teams closer to year to year, players I tend to view in a different lense as I will try and predict the range of their future outcome based on age, contract, age/contract of supporting cast and coaching. Win some, lose some.

But what I don't do is just view everything out of some 3 year lense, it's a lot more nuanced.

I misinterpreted why you were asking, I thought it was more a conceptual "why X years" than "why only 3 as opposed to full-on" question.  I tend to agree with you that it's a lot more nuanced that just looking at a 3 year window and I also lean much more to the shorter timeframes.  I am highly active and will have plenty of time later to deal with later problems.  If I have managed my team well I'll also have more equity available to solve them with.

And note that no one is saying they only care about points scored for the next three years.  Someone else above mistakenly said this would lead to undervaluing young guys and overvaluing vets like Keenan Allen.  Not true at all.  That person is assuming we're only looking at current points scored for the 3 year window.  I decouple points today from future value.  And that's the art of dynasty - how can I give myself the best change to win now while maximizing future outlook?  If I can't get Keenan Allen for the right price I will look elsewhere, I won't overpay for him just to get the points in my lineup.  I'll ask the Marvin Jones owner or Breshaud Perriman owner or the Robert Woods owner or I'll just keep asking around until I find a different player that's available at a price I'm comfortable with.

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I took over an orphan that was in bad shape but had a handful of assets.  Here are the two big trades I have made.  12 team ppr 1qb

OBJ for Clavin Ridley and 1.10 this year

Fournette for DJ Chark

I am at least two years away and this team only had a 4th round pick going into this years rookie draft..  Did a few smaller trades to get picks, TY Hilton for 2.01 and Mostert for 2.08 and a 2021 3rd.  Jordan Howard for 3.02.  

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28 minutes ago, frae said:

I took over an orphan that was in bad shape but had a handful of assets.  Here are the two big trades I have made.  12 team ppr 1qb

OBJ for Clavin Ridley and 1.10 this year

Fournette for DJ Chark

I am at least two years away and this team only had a 4th round pick going into this years rookie draft..  Did a few smaller trades to get picks, TY Hilton for 2.01 and Mostert for 2.08 and a 2021 3rd.  Jordan Howard for 3.02.  

Love them both for a rebuilder. Nice job.

 

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6 minutes ago, Blackbear said:

Can you post your roster and picks. It seems like the guy you took over for left you with a real headache. Only a 4th this year? Must be something on the team?

Sure, it was not good enough to win now and my only pick in 2020 was the 4th round pick I had.  Here is the roster I started with before trades...

QB - Flaco Winston Darnold. 

RB - G Bernard, M Gordon, A Peterson, Fournette, Jordan Wilkins, Darrell Williams, TJ Yeldon, Damien harris, Mostert J Howard

WR Robby Anderson, OBJ, TY Hilton, AJ Green, Zay Jones, E Sanders, K Stills, A Tate

TE J Doyle, T Burton, T Eifert

2020 pick of 4.02

I have no clue what he got for his 1st, 2nd and 3rd but he finished 11th last year and that 1.02 pick would have been really helpful.  I forget I had to include D Harris with Hilton to get 2.01.

So I have so far shipped out Fournette, OBJ, Hilton, Mostert, Hilton, Howard and Harris and got back Ridley, Chark, 1.10, 2.01, 2.08, 3.02 and I do have the 4.02 I started with.

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2 minutes ago, Blackbear said:

You are doing great with what you were given. Post your line up now and asterisk your projected starters... I hope only one QB league. 

QB Darnold * Winston Flaco 

RB Gordon*(Still trying to trade him)  Bernard*  AP  Jordan Wilkins Darrell Williams  TJ Yeldon

WR - Ridley * Chark* AJ Green* (still trying to trade him) Emmanuel Sanders* (still trying to trade him for anything) Kenny Stills Auden Tate Robby Anderson

TE Jack Doyle* T Burton  Eifert

DEF Las Vegas (definitely dropping them KC and Min are on waivers)

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4 minutes ago, frae said:

QB Darnold * Winston Flaco 

RB Gordon*(Still trying to trade him)  Bernard*  AP  Jordan Wilkins Darrell Williams  TJ Yeldon

WR - Ridley * Chark* AJ Green* (still trying to trade him) Emmanuel Sanders* (still trying to trade him for anything) Kenny Stills Auden Tate Robby Anderson

TE Jack Doyle* T Burton  Eifert

DEF Las Vegas (definitely dropping them KC and Min are on waivers)

What are you waiting for on Waivers for defense? Minnesota is a much better option than LVR!

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4 minutes ago, robb said:

What are you waiting for on Waivers for defense? Minnesota is a much better option than LVR!

Free Agent adds are locked until we do the rookie draft, there is currently one open team.  So yes when that is over I will be bidding on a defense.

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6 minutes ago, Blackbear said:

What QBs are on waivers? Probably junk? 

The most interesting guys?  Nick Foles, Brissett, and I guess Taysom Hill?  I'll definitely try to add one if I don't add a qb in the rookie draft.  Burrows and Tua could be options for me at 2.01 or 2.08.  Could look at Herbert at 3.02 maybe.  Not sure yet it will depend what RB/WR drop.

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1 minute ago, Blackbear said:

Get Foles and get rid of Flacco. Flacco went flaccid. 
 

Probably in one QB league Burrows and Tua will be there at 1.10. If both there then gamble and take something else and snag one at 2.1

How many teams in the league?

12 teams in the league, and yes I agree 1.10 will be a WR probably.  If things go by ADP it could be Jefferson or Reagor.  K Vaughn could be the choice if Jefferson and Reagor go or I take Ruggs.  I won't use 1.10 on Burrows in one QB. 


Yeah I'll be holding Winston for this year and Flacco will get the axe whether its for a rookie or for Foles.

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Just now, Blackbear said:

Sorry, I can’t remember if you said PPR. I assume so since you asterisk Bernard. 

Yes it is PPR, the one wrinkle to bump up QB value some is it is 6 points for passing TD's.  No yardage bonuses or TE premium scoring.

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1 minute ago, Blackbear said:

What site are you playing on? Espn? 

MFL, and I'd love to get either Jefferson or Reagor, but not sure they will be there.  First 7 in one qb almost seemed locked in unless someone does something wild, the order differs but those 7 seem to be CEH Taylor Swift Dobbins Akers Lamb and Jeudy.  After that maybe Jefferson or Reagor slip one slot down from ADP to 10 or if I had to pick now I probably take Ruggs there.

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2 minutes ago, Blackbear said:

 

I ask because Taysum has TE/QB designation in ESPN. Not sure about MFL. Never played there. But if on MFL you gotta a designation of TE/QB you might want cut Burton for Taysom. Could be a cheat code at TE. They franchised the guy, and they coach is probably looking at using him more in a wildcat ala LJackson. 
 

if not, I’d consider Claypool late. I have a sneaking suspicion Pittsburg might go twelve personnel a lot and line up Claypool all over like Pats did with Hernandez and how LV did with Waller. 

Yeah Hill is QB only on MFL.  Claypool could be my top of round 3 pick depending on who is there.  Thanks!

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1 minute ago, Blackbear said:

Sorry bud, not a Yinzer. But love Iron City and Permani Bro’s smmiches... nnnatt. 🙂

 

Been there a few times. Great people, great city. 🙂

We do what we can.  By the way I just went down the rabbit hole of all the picks trades he made to get into this situation.  It is UGLY!

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1 minute ago, Blackbear said:

The reason I’m asking is with a few good moves you might compete in year one. 

Well with 2 WR 2 RB and 2 flex I could definitely get to 4 WR's for and use them in both of my flex spots (Chark, Ridley, Green,E Sanders)  Gordon and Bernard could be ok I guess, we will see.  I am not going to tank if I can build a good lineup I will.  

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1 hour ago, frae said:

Well with 2 WR 2 RB and 2 flex I could definitely get to 4 WR's for and use them in both of my flex spots (Chark, Ridley, Green,E Sanders)  Gordon and Bernard could be ok I guess, we will see.  I am not going to tank if I can build a good lineup I will.  

To be honest with that kind of orphan you are probably better off long term by taking your lumps in year one and getting a good draft pick next year.  

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11 hours ago, frae said:

I took over an orphan that was in bad shape but had a handful of assets.  Here are the two big trades I have made.  12 team ppr 1qb

OBJ for Clavin Ridley and 1.10 this year

Fournette for DJ Chark

I am at least two years away and this team only had a 4th round pick going into this years rookie draft..  Did a few smaller trades to get picks, TY Hilton for 2.01 and Mostert for 2.08 and a 2021 3rd.  Jordan Howard for 3.02.  

Love the OBJ, Fournette, Hilton, and Howard trades. 

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On 6/22/2020 at 6:13 PM, JoeSteeler said:

16 team PPR, IDP, TE Premium

Team A gave: Williams, Mike LAC WR + Williams, Tyrell LVR WR

Team B gave: Hooper, Austin CLE TE

Not wild about anybody in this deal but in TE premium, gimme Hooper.  There are just so many decent WRs out there.  Dont really see Williams hitting any kind of ceiling anytime soon as I'm definitely not a believer in Herbert.

1 hour ago, robb said:

Team A traded Josh Allen, QB (also has Wentz)

Team B traded Connor, RB

.5 PPR, not SF

Value on the Conner side for sure.  I'm an Allen fan but RBs you can start are just so much more valuable than QBs.  Maybe if Conner is my RB4 or worse and I need a QB, then I might consider a deal with these two, but theres about a 2nd round pick missing here.

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On 6/22/2020 at 6:13 PM, JoeSteeler said:

16 team PPR, IDP, TE Premium

Team A gave: Williams, Mike LAC WR + Williams, Tyrell LVR WR

Team B gave: Hooper, Austin CLE TE

Hooper...it is not just TE premium but it is a 16 team league so Hooper has more value in that format due to supply and demand.

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The only way I would prefer Hooper in this trade if it was a TE premium and start 2 TE league.  I am not optimistic about his prospects on the Browns, I'm thinking he tops out at about 70% of last year's production.

That puts him in the morass of the bottom of the TE1 wrung.  That's "plug and pray" range.

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1 hour ago, Matt's Eagles said:

12 Team .5 PPR

Team A got L Fournette, DJ Chark

Team B got Ronald Jones, Mike Evans

Team B because they rid themselves of the Jacksonville players.

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On 6/22/2020 at 6:13 PM, JoeSteeler said:

16 team PPR, IDP, TE Premium

Team A gave: Williams, Mike LAC WR + Williams, Tyrell LVR WR

Team B gave: Hooper, Austin CLE TE

Hooper easy

On 6/23/2020 at 11:34 PM, robb said:

Team A traded Josh Allen, QB (also has Wentz)

Team B traded Connor, RB

.5 PPR, not SF

Terminator for sure

 

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12 hours ago, Matt's Eagles said:

12 Team .5 PPR

Team A got L Fournette, DJ Chark

Team B got Ronald Jones, Mike Evans

Ugh, Sophie's choice

Would depend on current team needs, if contending and needed rb for this yr its A. Otherwise I think it is pretty even.

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Still doing that rebuild thing 12 team ppr, not competing at all this year and probably not next year.

Give Chark and E. Sanders

Get 1.07 (Jeudy or Lamb I assume)  and Isabella.

I know Chark has proven he can do it and those guys haven't but I liked getting even younger with guys taken in round 1.

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3 hours ago, Madam's_Adamant said:

First COVID-inspired trade:

Traded James Conner for a mid-2nd. 

Not so COVID but team need:

Traded Tyler Boyd for a mid-2nd and Rashaan Evans (linebacker in a start 9 IDP).

Is the thinking that 2020 doesn't happen but the world still turns and by the time 2021 gets here the Steelers obtain a new RB, and even if they don't Conner is one year older at that point?

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20 hours ago, barackdhouse said:

Is the thinking that 2020 doesn't happen but the world still turns and by the time 2021 gets here the Steelers obtain a new RB, and even if they don't Conner is one year older at that point?

I did the same as Madam's_Adamant,  but for a little more towards the early second for sure. What I thought is that Conner tolls in 2020 and becomes a free agent whereupon he'll sign a team-friendly deal with someone, or given his injury history, struggle to get a contract at the age of 26. If the season is cancelled and it does not toll, though, that's a risk, but you're still only getting a year for sure out of him, if that due to injury. Might be better off with the higher-percentage dart throw, even though Connner, if healthy, if a heck of a starter in an offesne that wants to start a cowbell.    

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10 minutes ago, Penguin said:

Thought this was a unique one in a 12 team PPR start 1/2/3/1/2 Flex

Team A gets Sammy Watkins

Team B gets Lemical Perine

That is unique, actually. Not sure who wins that one. Sounds like somebody wanted to make a long bet on Perine but missed him late in the draft or something.  

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