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****OFFICIAL 2021 IN- SEASON DYNASTY TRADES****


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7 minutes ago, bostonfred said:

You think Godwin is worth more than 3 firsts?

There are very few players I would give 3 1sts for and Godwin isn't one of them, especially if one of those picks are top 5.  I could see someone being OK giving 1.10, 1.11, and 1.12 for Godwin if that was the scenario, but most of the time it isn't and owners stand the risk of giving a lot higher picks than they first thought they would be.

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22 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

If he's confident those 2021 1sts will indeed be late I would take Godwin over 3 late 1sts very easily, and I'm not even a big Godwin fan.

I know Godwin is a very good player, but he had several unlikely big plays for touchdowns early last year and now goes from one of the most fantasy friendly quarterbacks (downfield passer who throws interceptions and has to dig himself out of holes late) to an older quarterback who avoids interceptions and completes shorter passes to all of his targets and who has cratered the numbers of veteran receivers on plenty of occasions. 

Brady was great for edelman and gronk when they were a1 and 1b on a team whose third best receiver was a running back, but sharing with Evans, gronk, howard, brate could mean some serious regression is coming. 

I'm not saying he's worthless - I own him in one league and don't need him in any others. But I see him as a super risky pick at the top of the wr chart. 

The upside is this - he had 86/1333/9 in 14 games on just 119 targets. If he got 150 targets like Edelman did last year and in some previous years, he could go off. Like edelman, he's a beast across the middle and has an even better catch percentage/drop rate. He's got the GOAT throwing to him, and with the exceptions of randy moss and gronk, brady has never been one to throw the kind of 50/50 jump balls where Evans excels. And Godwin has always had the pedigree, but excelled immediately when he got the role. Welker immediately excelled with Brady, too, even with Moss and Stallworth there.  All of those are good things. 

But three firsts (and a third) for a guy with such a wide variety of outcomes... seems ambitious. 

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3 minutes ago, bostonfred said:

I know Godwin is a very good player, but he had several unlikely big plays for touchdowns early last year and now goes from one of the most fantasy friendly quarterbacks (downfield passer who throws interceptions and has to dig himself out of holes late) to an older quarterback who avoids interceptions and completes shorter passes to all of his targets and who has cratered the numbers of veteran receivers on plenty of occasions. 

Brady was great for edelman and gronk when they were a1 and 1b on a team whose third best receiver was a running back, but sharing with Evans, gronk, howard, brate could mean some serious regression is coming. 

I'm not saying he's worthless - I own him in one league and don't need him in any others. But I see him as a super risky pick at the top of the wr chart. 

The upside is this - he had 86/1333/9 in 14 games on just 119 targets. If he got 150 targets like Edelman did last year and in some previous years, he could go off. Like edelman, he's a beast across the middle and has an even better catch percentage/drop rate. He's got the GOAT throwing to him, and with the exceptions of randy moss and gronk, brady has never been one to throw the kind of 50/50 jump balls where Evans excels. And Godwin has always had the pedigree, but excelled immediately when he got the role. Welker immediately excelled with Brady, too, even with Moss and Stallworth there.  All of those are good things. 

But three firsts (and a third) for a guy with such a wide variety of outcomes... seems ambitious. 

3 random 1sts I would agree. But with 1 of them guaranteed late and the other two likely late I would rather have the top 20 dynasty asset. 

When I look back at the history of guys in the 1.09 - 1.12 range in the link below there are definitely some good names mixed in but I think I'd rather have Godwin than pulling 3 random names off that list. I realize those 2021 picks aren't guaranteed late but I'm not enamored with the early look on the 2021 class anyway. 

https://fantasydata.com/nfl/fantasy-football-rookie-adp-rankings

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42 minutes ago, bostonfred said:

I know Godwin is a very good player, but he had several unlikely big plays for touchdowns early last year

I don't think he did. I've watched every touchdown from last year and the only one that sticks out is the one he scored in New Orleans. That won't be repeated.  Here are all his touchdowns from 2019 for proof. I don't mean to nitpick, but this was a large part of your argument.

https://youtu.be/JvS8U6ZA6lg

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7 minutes ago, rockaction said:

If you like drafting from the ### end of the first round three times to come up with value akin to a guy who was just the overall WR2, then go ahead.

I like Reagor in Philly and I believe the 2021 draft is 10 deep in WRs and there's Etienne and Hubbard.  Plus, who's to say both the 1st would be late?  Hell, we may not even have a season and leagues are already looking at other avenues for the 2021 draft.

Edited by JohnnyU
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On 7/30/2020 at 10:02 AM, Jonesin For Some Football said:

12 team, .5 PPR, 1 QB (Not Involved)

Chris Godwin

for

1.11 (Jalen Reagor), 2 2021 1sts (both projected very late), and a 2021 3rd

TB isn’t going to pass as much as they did last year, and I think that lead to unrealistic expectations for Godwin this year. He or Evans (or both) are going to have a slight let down this year. 
 

I can see both sides. If I’m contending (which it seems this guy is), I would say this guy is making a good move, however I would have preferred two 1sts and a 2nd. He is buying him at his ceiling. For the seller, this is a great way to rebuild and load up on young talent 

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45 minutes ago, rockaction said:

I don't think he did. I've watched every touchdown from last year and the only one that sticks out is the one he scored in New Orleans. That won't be repeated.  Here are all his touchdowns from 2019 for proof. I don't mean to nitpick, but this was a large part of your argument.

https://youtu.be/JvS8U6ZA6lg

Fair. The 3 that stuck out to me were the one trailing 31-17 with seconds left in the 4th, the 80ish yard bomb with multiple broken tackles, and the last one where it somehow. The first one is the one I remember most as an owner because I won my game by that score. I feel like there's another long bomb that didnt go for a touchdown that was super fluky but I don't remember. I'm not saying that he will never have long touchdowns or make tough catches, just that it's tough to use 2019 as a baseline when he had some lucky plays and what may have been a more fantasy friendly situation.

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11 minutes ago, bostonfred said:

Fair. The 3 that stuck out to me were the one trailing 31-17 with seconds left in the 4th, the 80ish yard bomb with multiple broken tackles, and the last one where it somehow. The first one is the one I remember most as an owner because I won my game by that score. I feel like there's another long bomb that didnt go for a touchdown that was super fluky but I don't remember. I'm not saying that he will never have long touchdowns or make tough catches, just that it's tough to use 2019 as a baseline when he had some lucky plays and what may have been a more fantasy friendly situation.

If I am recalling correctly, he was pretty amazing after the catch and created a lot of his yardage 

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1 hour ago, rockaction said:

I don't think he did. I've watched every touchdown from last year and the only one that sticks out is the one he scored in New Orleans. That won't be repeated.  Here are all his touchdowns from 2019 for proof. I don't mean to nitpick, but this was a large part of your argument.

https://youtu.be/JvS8U6ZA6lg

Do you think Gronkowski threatens a repeat of a lot of those red zone TDs

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1 minute ago, I-ROK said:

If I am recalling correctly, he was pretty amazing after the catch and created a lot of his yardage 

Definitely. And that is repeatable to some extent.  You should expect good yac guys to get yac and he did. I am just wary of players like him and aj Brown who had some of those big plays and have it priced in to their value this year, and am always looking for guys like devin Singletary who got tackled inside the 5 on 5 plays where he had double digit yardage and also got vultured a lot last year. That doesn't mean that Singletary will get 5 more touchdowns next year and brown and godwin will both get fewer, it just means that Singletary's prices is probably lower than it should be and brown and Godwin are probably more expensive than they should be because they had positive variance. 

Brown https://titansized.com/2020/06/29/reliving-and-ranking-every-aj-brown-rookie-year-touchdown/2/

Singletary https://youtu.be/ZD2T6pwfdZ0

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24 team PPR TE premium 2 copies of each player 11 starters QRRWWTFFFDK

I gave 1.12 OTC

I got Unicorn, Damien Harris, 2021 1st (playoff team)

I hold other late 1sts and early 2nds in this draft. Rebuilding. I took Dobbins at 1.06 but neither of Akers or Swift made it to 1.12 so I shipped it. 

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1 hour ago, bostonfred said:

Definitely. And that is repeatable to some extent.  You should expect good yac guys to get yac and he did. I am just wary of players like him and aj Brown who had some of those big plays and have it priced in to their value this year, and am always looking for guys like devin Singletary who got tackled inside the 5 on 5 plays where he had double digit yardage and also got vultured a lot last year. That doesn't mean that Singletary will get 5 more touchdowns next year and brown and godwin will both get fewer, it just means that Singletary's prices is probably lower than it should be and brown and Godwin are probably more expensive than they should be because they had positive variance. 

Brown https://titansized.com/2020/06/29/reliving-and-ranking-every-aj-brown-rookie-year-touchdown/2/

Singletary https://youtu.be/ZD2T6pwfdZ0

I agree completely

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Godwin is also due for regression. His yards per touch were way, way up there, and people think that it's a bit unsustainable. Unless he gets more targets being Brady's slot guy.

As far as Gronk goes, he looked like toast at his end with the Pats that entire last year. I know because I wasted a second or third on him, and he just flat did not have from the jump. We'll have to see if he's not a glorified o-line guy. 

Edited by rockaction
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1 hour ago, barackdhouse said:

24 team PPR TE premium 2 copies of each player 11 starters QRRWWTFFFDK

I gave 1.12 OTC

I got Unicorn, Damien Harris, 2021 1st (playoff team)

I hold other late 1sts and early 2nds in this draft. Rebuilding. I took Dobbins at 1.06 but neither of Akers or Swift made it to 1.12 so I shipped it. 

What did 1.12 become? That’s important in this case 

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37 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

1st copy of Jeudy

I like Jeudy to a degree, but I was curious if a stud RB fell. The 2021 1st is bound to at least be a wash, but likely better. You get  Williams who is promising. Harris is likely to be the man this year. I’d say you came out pretty big here

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15 minutes ago, I-ROK said:

I like Jeudy to a degree, but I was curious if a stud RB fell. The 2021 1st is bound to at least be a wash, but likely better. You get  Williams who is promising. Harris is likely to be the man this year. I’d say you came out pretty big here

No, this is what I was hoping for but both copies of Akers and Swift were gone. I'm just not big on Jeudy or Lamb in the middle of the 1st.

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9 hours ago, barackdhouse said:

24 team PPR TE premium 2 copies of each player 11 starters QRRWWTFFFDK

I gave 1.12 OTC

I got Unicorn, Damien Harris, 2021 1st (playoff team)

I hold other late 1sts and early 2nds in this draft. Rebuilding. I took Dobbins at 1.06 but neither of Akers or Swift made it to 1.12 so I shipped it. 

The Unicorn, easily

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FFPC

Gave: Zack Moss

Got: Antonio Brown

I didn't draft Moss, he came in a package deal but was picked at 2.05.  I'm not really a believer in him and he was my RB 6 or 7.  My team is a contender and I expect AB to sign with Seattle or maybe Baltimore in the near future.  

I'm sure several will say I overpaid and thats fine.  Posting for reference.

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1 hour ago, Vandelay said:

FFPC

Gave: Zack Moss

Got: Antonio Brown

I didn't draft Moss, he came in a package deal but was picked at 2.05.  I'm not really a believer in him and he was my RB 6 or 7.  My team is a contender and I expect AB to sign with Seattle or maybe Baltimore in the near future.  

I'm sure several will say I overpaid and thats fine.  Posting for reference.

I think that's pretty silly.

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33 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

I'm sorry. I misunderstood this post and the trade. Getting Williams and a 1st for a 2020 1st is a major coup. Well done. 

Haha that's cool. I was wondering whether you read it right. I was thinking a funny retort might be to quote a Barkley trade that had like three 1sts on the other side, and then say something like "I'd take Barkley for a 1st anyday". 

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34 minutes ago, Vandelay said:

Shrug.  As soon as AB steps on the field, I expect he becomes more valuable than Moss by a good margin.  Getting in before the price jump and understand it could backfire.

I like the move. He's available in my league now starting the third round soon. Both him and Moss are available, and if they are both there at 3.03, I'm taking AB.

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41 minutes ago, hispeedthinmint said:

He was a rookie... Jeffrey is dead weight

Stafford should be a back end qb1 for at least another 4 years with an upside chance last year wasn't a complete anomaly. I'll take him over Jones anyway. Danny Dimes might be the next Trubisky. For what its worth, fantasypros has them 1 spot apart.

Good chance you're right about Jeffery, the injuries have piled up. He seems older than 30 but he's still 30. In theory he should have a few more years left but most people would say he's toast. We'll see, maybe I can get a few games from him this year. At least he produces when he plays.

Edited by cloppbeast
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55 minutes ago, Vandelay said:

Jones put up 4 games of 30+ points and they all came in very predictable spots.  He was the perfect backup QB last year as a rookie.  Room for growth.  Not a guy to ditch for a terribly average QB and a terribly terrible WR.

You say room for growth, I say maybe we see that happen maybe not. It's not rational to assume he will improve. We've seen more than a few qbs not develop winding up not that good, not even 'terribly average'.

At the risk of beating a dead horse, I was not encouraged about Daniel's prospects what I saw out of him. I know that's just my opinion, not worth much. But analyzing the stats could also raise some concerns. He had more interceptions and fumbles than tds, the completion % was not great, high sack rate, and a poor ypa. His td/att was the only encouraging metric, and he threw over half his tds in 3 games. It seems to me this is driving his value quite superficially, so methinks a good time to cut bait. He could end up an all time great, except I feel like I'm just playing the odds at this point.

But I digress.

Edited by cloppbeast
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1 hour ago, Vandelay said:

Jones put up 4 games of 30+ points and they all came in very predictable spots.  He was the perfect backup QB last year as a rookie.  Room for growth.  Not a guy to ditch for a terribly average QB and a terribly terrible WR.

Stafford's a QB6-10 in that offense. He's got at least five good years in him. 

Not sure what the #### you're talking about, your certitude also. Please stop littering the SP with your attitude. Thanks.  

Edited by rockaction
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7 hours ago, Vandelay said:

Shrug.  As soon as AB steps on the field, I expect he becomes more valuable than Moss by a good margin.  Getting in before the price jump and understand it could backfire.

Price jump? He's a 32 year old WR, currently without a team, with a suspension looming and major issues. There's a reason he has almost no trade value in most leagues.

Even if he signs with someone, serves his suspension and actually plays well and doesn't do anything stupid, there's no way IMO he will be worth more than a late 2nd/early 3rd ever again, and that's best case scenario. I'm not sure what kind of price jump people are hoping for. Even if there is one, chances are you wouldn't be able to capitalise on it because there are probably only going to be one or two owners in your league who have any interest at all in trading for him.  

(full disclosure: I don't understand the current obsession with Brown and wouldn't trade any rookie pick for him. I'd just drop him actually if I owned him).  

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1 hour ago, RushHour said:

Price jump? He's a 32 year old WR, currently without a team, with a suspension looming and major issues. There's a reason he has almost no trade value in most leagues.

Even if he signs with someone, serves his suspension and actually plays well and doesn't do anything stupid, there's no way IMO he will be worth more than a late 2nd/early 3rd ever again, and that's best case scenario. I'm not sure what kind of price jump people are hoping for. Even if there is one, chances are you wouldn't be able to capitalise on it because there are probably only going to be one or two owners in your league who have any interest at all in trading for him.  

(full disclosure: I don't understand the current obsession with Brown and wouldn't trade any rookie pick for him. I'd just drop him actually if I owned him).  

If those things happen, I won't be looking to trade him.  If he's playing, he's in fantasy starting lineups.  Moss?  There's a very good chance he doesn't amount to anything, ever.  

We are talking about the best wide receiver of a generation.

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2 hours ago, rockaction said:

Stafford's a QB6-10 in that offense. He's got at least five good years in him. 

Not sure what the #### you're talking about, your certitude also. Please stop littering the SP with your attitude. Thanks.  

I'll get right on that, chief.

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7 hours ago, Vandelay said:

If those things happen, I won't be looking to trade him.  If he's playing, he's in fantasy starting lineups.  Moss?  There's a very good chance he doesn't amount to anything, ever.  

We are talking about the best wide receiver of a generation.

Jerry Rice was the best receiver ever. Maybe your commish will add him to your league's free agency pool. 

That's a joke, BTW. I'm just saying that Brown WAS the best receiver of his generation but circumstances have, um, changed

Edited by Andy Dufresne
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4 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Jerry Rice was the best receiver ever. Maybe your commish will add him to your league's free agency pool. 

That's a joke, BTW. I'm just saying that Brown WAS the best receiver of his generation but circumstances have, um, changed

The only proven circumstance that has changed with regard to his ability is that he hasnt played.  He looked like the same old AB to me last year in the game with the Pats.  I dont think anyone expects peak AB numbers ever again, but its not hard to think he can be a WR2 for fantasy purposes and possibly more if and when he sees the field again.  There is no evidence his game has fallen off at last check.

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6 minutes ago, hispeedthinmint said:

Dynasty PPR

Team A gave DJ Moore, 2020 1.11 & 2020 4.11 rookie picks

Team B gave Michael Thomas

I would be pretty fired-up to get Thomas for that...Moore is a good one but Thomas is already elite...don't really see what the Owner giving away Thomas accomplishes here other then getting younger....since Thomas is only 27 that should not be a reason to make this deal.

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1 hour ago, Vandelay said:

The only proven circumstance that has changed with regard to his ability is that he hasnt played.  He looked like the same old AB to me last year in the game with the Pats.  I dont think anyone expects peak AB numbers ever again, but its not hard to think he can be a WR2 for fantasy purposes and possibly more if and when he sees the field again.  There is no evidence his game has fallen off at last check.

He is also suspended for half the season once he gets (if) signed.  He has very little value now and not much more if he gets signed

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1 hour ago, Boston said:

I would be pretty fired-up to get Thomas for that...Moore is a good one but Thomas is already elite...don't really see what the Owner giving away Thomas accomplishes here other then getting younger....since Thomas is only 27 that should not be a reason to make this deal.

rookie pick mania

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1 hour ago, Boston said:

I would be pretty fired-up to get Thomas for that...Moore is a good one but Thomas is already elite...don't really see what the Owner giving away Thomas accomplishes here other then getting younger....since Thomas is only 27 that should not be a reason to make this deal.

I can see where he's coming from. At age 22 Moore had 1175 receiving yards with Kyle Allen as his QB. This puts DJM in rare company. Michael Thomas was still at Ohio St at that age. The guy very well might be getting a much younger MT and a 1st to go with it.

Looking at the value, he received a 1.11 for going from a 1st round to a 2nd round start up pick. It's debateable and a lot of people always want to get the best player. Keeptradecut has this trade favoring the side getting MT only after adding a "value adjustment".

I would take Moore and the 1.11 but I'm a big fan of DJM.

Edited by cloppbeast
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On 8/2/2020 at 12:08 PM, barackdhouse said:

24 team PPR TE premium 2 copies of each player 11 starters QRRWWTFFFDK

I gave 1.12 OTC

I got Unicorn, Damien Harris, 2021 1st (playoff team)

I hold other late 1sts and early 2nds in this draft. Rebuilding. I took Dobbins at 1.06 but neither of Akers or Swift made it to 1.12 so I shipped it. 

Then today I took that 2021 1st I acquired and flipped it for Kirk and the 2.20, where I took Hurst.

In total that is me giving up the 1.12 (Jeudy) for Unicorn, Kirk, Harris, and Hurst. 

ETA Lamb was originally on the board at 1.12 as well

Edited by barackdhouse
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