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****OFFICIAL 2021 IN- SEASON DYNASTY TRADES****


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22 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Gotcha. I've got it differently, but I'm not too radical about it. I don't have Smith there. I think 165 pounds is going to get killed in the NFL, Heisman or no Heisman. Tipping my hand also...

You've quoted that number quite a bit. I don't think he's as light as that. Splitting hairs there though - either way it is a concern.

But his skills compensate for it, IMO.

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2 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

There's very little reason to make a trade like this now. It's much more likely that the difference 1.06 and 1.08 is negligible in 2 months than there being a huge tier break after the 1.06.

I don't agree. There's an equal, possibly greater, chance that it will cost more as we approach draft time.

And giving up a mid second when you have two other second round picks isn't a big loss to get closer to ensuring you get the guy you want.

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Just now, Andy Dufresne said:

You've quoted that number quite a bit. I don't think he's as light as that. Splitting hairs there though - either way it is a concern.

But his skills compensate for it, IMO.

Been reading anywhere from as low as 160 to 175. I think Dr. Dan's previous work on BMI (if we could find it) for receivers would be instructive in how his height and weight will translate at the pro level.

Fair enough about his skills. But after watching Ruggs at about 190 this year look like an utterly emaciated waif out there, I'm awfully sensitive to very slight or short Alabama receivers. Too close, man, too close to the burn. It's a logical fallacy, but there needs to be some weight gain for me to want to take him at 1.4 or 1.5. Otherwise, I'll pass.

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17 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Been reading anywhere from as low as 160 to 175. I think Dr. Dan's previous work on BMI (if we could find it) for receivers would be instructive in how his height and weight will translate at the pro level.

Fair enough about his skills. But after watching Ruggs at about 190 this year look like an utterly emaciated waif out there, I'm awfully sensitive to very slight or short Alabama receivers. Too close, man, too close to the burn. It's a logical fallacy, but there needs to be some weight gain for me to want to take him at 1.4 or 1.5. Otherwise, I'll pass.

I get it. It's how I felt about CEH. I liked him until I saw him on an NFL field where he looked like a sixth grader.

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18 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

I don't agree. There's an equal, possibly greater, chance that it will cost more as we approach draft time.

And giving up a mid second when you have two other second round picks isn't a big loss to get closer to ensuring you get the guy you want.

It's possible - but most years there's very little difference between the 1.06 and 1.08 and giving away assets just because you have them isn't a winning strategy.

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41 minutes ago, Boston said:

A trade like this is dependent on your draft board..

I would beg to differ and say a trade like this will usually depend on the consensus post draft board for top 6-8. Today's board won't matter when it's time to draft.

So whether this trade works out or not is TBD until the actual draft creates tiers.

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3 minutes ago, menobrown said:

I would beg to differ and say a trade like this will usually depend on the consensus post draft board for top 6-8. Today's board won't matter when it's time to draft.

So whether this trade works out or not is TBD until the actual draft creates tiers.

I respectfully disagree...if I have a top 6 I want it locked in ASAP...I find that as the draft gets closer prying away a top draft pick usually gets harder and the cost gets steeper.

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13 minutes ago, menobrown said:

I would beg to differ and say a trade like this will usually depend on the consensus post draft board for top 6-8. Today's board won't matter when it's time to draft.

So whether this trade works out or not is TBD until the actual draft creates tiers.

I would say this is true if you don't already have a personal cutoff of talent.  If you have a personal clear cut top 6 this ensures you get one of those.  It may be true that hype and consensus could differ from your personal top 6 which could mean you can get one of your six at pick 12 once all the dust settles but that is taking a chance.  This way you know you get one of your top 6 that you have clearly above the rest........for a fairly low cost.

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27 minutes ago, Boston said:

I respectfully disagree...if I have a top 6 I want it locked in ASAP...I find that as the draft gets closer prying away a top draft pick usually gets harder and the cost gets steeper.

I"d be willing to bet your top 6 was not your top 6 after the draft happened.

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19 minutes ago, Gally said:

I would say this is true if you don't already have a personal cutoff of talent.  If you have a personal clear cut top 6 this ensures you get one of those.  It may be true that hype and consensus could differ from your personal top 6 which could mean you can get one of your six at pick 12 once all the dust settles but that is taking a chance.  This way you know you get one of your top 6 that you have clearly above the rest........for a fairly low cost.

I'd say the same thing I just said to Boston. I'd be willling to bet your top 6 now won't be your top 6 post draft and if you look back at past years probably never was either.

I bet none of you had CEH in your top 6 this time last year at this time as an example. And even if you did not like CEH he knocked Lamb or Juedy back to 6-7 in literally every single draft I was in so if you had one of those in your top 5 you never needed to go that high to get them.

I don't mean any offense to anyone when I say this but I think some of you think you know more then you do right now. That applies to me as well. A few top tier players will hold but anyone who thinks some players you currently view as top 6 will all hold I think are in for a rude awakening.

And it's not hype that changes values. It's real tangible stuff like draft pedigree and opportunity to say nothing of workouts we've not even seen yet.

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10 minutes ago, menobrown said:

 

I'd say the same thing I just said to Boston. I'd be willling to bet your top 6 now won't be your top 6 post draft and if you look back at past years probably never was either.

I bet none of you had CEH in your top 6 this time last year at this time as an example. And even if you did not like CEH he knocked Lamb or Juedy back to 6-7 in literally every single draft I was in so if you had one of those in your top 5 you never needed to go that high to get them.

I don't mean any offense to anyone when I say this but I think some of you think you know more then you do right now. That applies to me as well. A few top tier players will hold but anyone who thinks some players you currently view as top 6 will all hold I think are in for a rude awakening.

And it's not hype that changes values. It's real tangible stuff like draft pedigree and opportunity to say nothing of workouts we've not even seen yet.

For me, that was a lesson learned. You're right that I didn't have CEH as the #1 - but the hype about landing spot got to me and I took him there. Pre draft I wanted to take Lamb and I should have.

I won't make that mistake this year. I plan on making entirely NEW mistakes!

Edited by Andy Dufresne
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3 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

The order might change but it's doubtful the players will. For me, anyway.

I'd bet you, Gally and Boston all on this I'd just not have a way to verify your top 6 changed after the draft.

But just for kicks while don't you all 3 post your top 6, and then we'll revisit this after the draft.

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Just now, Andy Dufresne said:

For me, that was a lesson learned. You're right that I didn't have CEH as the #1 - but the hype about landing spot got to me and I took him there. Pre draft I wanted to take Lamb and I should have.

I won't have that mistake this year. I plan on making entirely NEW mistakes!

First off I'm very high on CEH and and trying to buy him but that's all beside the point

The point is he dropped a player you would never have thought would have dropped. Happens every year.

 

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Just now, menobrown said:

I'd bet you, Gally and Boston all on this I'd just not have a way to verify your top 6 changed after the draft.

But just for kicks while don't you all 3 post your top 6, and then we'll revisit this after the draft.

Chase/Harris/Etienne/Waddle/Smith/Williams

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1 hour ago, Dr. Octopus said:

There's very little reason to make a trade like this now. It's much more likely that the difference 1.06 and 1.08 is negligible in 2 months than there being a huge tier break after the 1.06.

Depending on how things shake out, moving from 1.08 to 1.06 might be near impossible in 2 months. 
To put it another way: sometimes there’s a top 6 you like, but rarely are there 8 guys in that tier. 

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4 minutes ago, menobrown said:

First off I'm very high on CEH and and trying to buy him but that's all beside the point

The point is he dropped a player you would never have thought would have dropped. Happens every year.

 

But the other point is, he shouldn't have. At least CEH did have the results that could justify putting him ahead of others.

This year, however, there isn't a player I see with the numbers to justify knocking one of the top players out of their position. What, Rondale Moore or Rashod Bateman are going to seem a better pick than Waddle just because they appear to be in a better situation? I really can't see that happening.

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1 minute ago, Andy Dufresne said:

But the other point is, he shouldn't have. At least CEH did have the results that could justify putting him ahead of others.

This year, however, there isn't a player I see with the numbers to justify knocking one of the top players out of their position. What, Rondale Moore or Rashod Bateman are going to seem a better pick than Waddle just because they appear to be in a better situation? I really can't see that happening.

My point was not to debate the merits of CEH, his performance whether he was outstanding or Bishop Sankey redux was not a factor.

The point of mentioning CEH is what you started the next paragraph off with when you said there is not a player whose numbers would knock someone down because you did not think CEH would knock someone down last year. That's the point I'm trying to make. Players will rise you did not see coming.

I don't know about your leagues but in mine it's generally RB's who rise up and lower were we have WR's ranked right now. Not so much upper tier WR's passing WR's based on your current rankings.  I used CEH as an example but most people also had Lamb or Juedy over Akers at this time. I mean some people had Lamb as 1.1. Again in my leagues Lamb never went higher then 6, I drafted him at 7.  But if you had Lamb as say your WR1 and Juedy as your WR2 last year that held. That might hold again this year with respect to WR's vs WR's.

 

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4 minutes ago, menobrown said:

My point was not to debate the merits of CEH, his performance whether he was outstanding or Bishop Sankey redux was not a factor.

The point of mentioning CEH is what you started the next paragraph off with when you said there is not a player whose numbers would knock someone down because you did not think CEH would knock someone down last year. That's the point I'm trying to make. Players will rise you did not see coming.

I don't know about your leagues but in mine it's generally RB's who rise up and lower were we have WR's ranked right now. Not so much upper tier WR's passing WR's based on your current rankings.  I used CEH as an example but most people also had Lamb or Juedy over Akers at this time. I mean some people had Lamb as 1.1. Again in my leagues Lamb never went higher then 6, I drafted him at 7.  But if you had Lamb as say your WR1 and Juedy as your WR2 last year that held. That might hold again this year with respect to WR's vs WR's.

 

That's not what I said. Or at least not what I meant.

I said CEH DID at least have the numbers to knock other players down IF he went to a good spot.  

I don't think there's a similar situation with this year's players. I don't see anyone with justification for knocking out the guys I have at the top regardless of landing spots. They just didn't perform well enough (or at all) on the field to do that.

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1 hour ago, menobrown said:

I"d be willing to bet your top 6 was not your top 6 after the draft happened.

You maybe right...definitely a chance that happens or at least the order changes which really doesn’t have an effect...yet, I am more then comfortable making this move as the cost is not prohibitive and I am betting on the fact this type of move may cost more later...bottom line for me is I move up in the draft and still have more control over who I pick and if I have a definite top 6 now I am very willing to take the risk for this cost...very worst case in this is I make another deal and break even with happened in this deal.

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2 minutes ago, Boston said:

You maybe right...definitely a chance that happens or at least the order changes which really doesn’t have an effect...yet, I am more then comfortable making this move as the cost is not prohibitive and I am betting on the fact this type of move may cost more later...bottom line for me is I move up in the draft and still have more control over who I pick and if I have a definite top 6 now I am very willing to take the risk for this cost...very worst case in this is I make another deal and break even with happened in this deal.

I for sure want to add I was not critical of the move, I don't think I said it was a bad trade. In fact I have a league where I have pick 6 and I would NOT take 2.6 to move back to 1.8 right now.  I absolutely understand that depending on were tier breaks are it could be considerably harder to move up to 6 from 8 once everything shakes out.

I just was debating/arguing that the current top 6 will be the same.

 

 

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1 hour ago, menobrown said:

 

I'd say the same thing I just said to Boston. I'd be willling to bet your top 6 now won't be your top 6 post draft and if you look back at past years probably never was either.

I bet none of you had CEH in your top 6 this time last year at this time as an example. And even if you did not like CEH he knocked Lamb or Juedy back to 6-7 in literally every single draft I was in so if you had one of those in your top 5 you never needed to go that high to get them.

I don't mean any offense to anyone when I say this but I think some of you think you know more then you do right now. That applies to me as well. A few top tier players will hold but anyone who thinks some players you currently view as top 6 will all hold I think are in for a rude awakening.

And it's not hype that changes values. It's real tangible stuff like draft pedigree and opportunity to say nothing of workouts we've not even seen yet.

I don't have a top 6 and am not tied to anybody in particular so I wouldn't be rushing to move up 2 spots regardless.  However, I do understand the move for someone that is confident in their top 6 due to the minor assets they had to give up to do it.  

 

I also believe there is a long time between now and draft day and things will change.

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6 hours ago, Boston said:

I respectfully disagree...if I have a top 6 I want it locked in ASAP...I find that as the draft gets closer prying away a top draft pick usually gets harder and the cost gets steeper.

This is exactly how I feel as well. I'm willing to move up seemingly arbitrary notches in the 1st round *while* the opportunity exists. If my strategy is to try and move up. Once somebody else buys into a spot, it will be harder to pry away. Once the consensus tier breaks form, those notches become harder to bridge. If I can do it today I will. Right now it looks like a top 6 to me and would love to bump from say 1.09 or 1.08. Unless I think the crop is going to be terrible there doesn't seem to be a compelling reason (to me) to wait.

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Whether I have it as a top 6 or not I certainly would agree it is likely to change between now and draft day. But I know I would rather hold 1.06 than 1.08. I might even flip the 1.06 later for something better than what I paid to get there. I also might have better luck moving from 1.06 to 1.02 in a subsequent trade. But if my top 6 shuffles between now and draft day, I'd rather err on the side of *already being in position* to take advantage of such a potential shift than to worry about the fallout of the improved pick somehow becoming dilluted and not worth the February gamble. 

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3 hours ago, donnie baseball said:

12 team superflex dynasty 

Lamar Jackson 

for

Hurts, 1.07, 2.05, 3.07

I've got this as pretty even. Calculators agree and even give the edge to the picks side. In my SF teams there is a good chance I would move Jackson for this if I believed in Hurts enough. If the Eagles moved Wentz tomorrow then Hurts value will climb more. But admittedly that outcome is already baked into this deal. I don't think this is nearly the bad deal people are saying. 

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3 hours ago, donnie baseball said:

12 team superflex dynasty 

Lamar Jackson 

for

Hurts, 1.07, 2.05, 3.07

This all depends on if Hurts gets the keys to the Philly job and keeps it. It's a risk but if he does I think it will prove to be a steal for the side getting Hurts. Would I take that risk in SF? I don't know.

Lamar started 6 full games his rookie season excluding week 17. His high point fantasy  game was less then Jalen averaged in his full 3 starts his rookie season. Jalen's low game in those 3 games was more then Lamar averaged in his 6 full starts. Don't sleep on the upside of Hurts IF he's the starting QB.

 

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4 hours ago, jadensdad said:

12 team Superflex/TE premium 

Team a - jacobs

team b - 1.08 and fuller 

I see this as pretty even. I am higher on Fuller than some, granted. But the 1.08 could be a nice return and Fuller is a 2nd/3rd tier WR. I'm honestly not that high on Jacobs. The Raiders don't seem to want to throw to him much, and they have a few RBs they like to mix in. 

If I had depth at RB and needed a WR I wouldn't hesitate to pull the trigger to move Jacobs for that package. 

From the other side if I were dealing Fuller & the 1.08 for Jacobs, I'd feel like I was getting a semi-feature back for a pick & a risky WR. 

Fair deal. I could see some balking at it either way, which is why I see it as pretty even. 

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7 hours ago, donnie baseball said:

12 team superflex dynasty 

Lamar Jackson 

for

Hurts, 1.07, 2.05, 3.07

I'm probably in the minority here, but I like this deal for the Hurts/Picks side. Lamar worries me a bit. At the worst I think it's fair, but value leans to LJax. In general, whenever you have a package deal with multiple players/picks for 1 dude, the side getting the 1 dude wins. 

That said, the Eagles are one snake bitten franchise, so I could also see not dealing LJax for that package. 

Mostly my reasons for taking or rejecting this deal have to do with gut feelings, i'll completely admit that. At face value it is probably slightly low for LJax. But if I had LJax and some holes I'd definitely consider it. I would like it a lot more with an extra 1st or 2 extra 2nds. 

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10 hours ago, donnie baseball said:

12 team superflex dynasty 

Lamar Jackson 

for

Hurts, 1.07, 2.05, 3.07

As a Lamar owner in dynasty, I can see this deal IF Hurts is the starter. Otherwise, no way in hell. So too early to make this trade unless you have Dak etc as your other QB.

 

Also, I can't seem to give Lamar away

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16 minutes ago, Helaire-ious said:

Did the team that gave the 1.07 really need a QB bad as their only missing piece? I think I would have kept the pick & gone Trevor if so

Do they need a quarterback? Yes. Is it going to put them over the top? No

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4 hours ago, Helaire-ious said:

As a Lamar owner in dynasty, I can see this deal IF Hurts is the starter. Otherwise, no way in hell. So too early to make this trade unless you have Dak etc as your other QB.

 

Also, I can't seem to give Lamar away

I see it as a foregone conclusion that Wentz is done in Philly one way or the other. 

Will Hurts stay the starter is the bigger concern foe me. If that OL doesn’t improve it might be short lived, & I hope he has good health insurance. 

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7 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Murray side. Seems like a bargain. 

I suppose it depends on the league QB scoring.  Looking at the draft, there will be a very good player at 1.07.  You have Harris, Chase, Williams, Etienne, Waddle, Bateman, and Smith.  I could see a team wanting one of those players in a league that has crappy scoring for a QB (like 4 pts per TD).

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31 minutes ago, Matt's Eagles said:

14 Team PPR

Team A got Miles Sanders

Team B got Chris Godwin

Wow. Fairly even, depending on need. Give me Sanders. Should have been able to make off with a late second, too, for that deal.

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12 hours ago, Cjw_55106 said:

1.07 for Kyler Murray

12 team ppr, 1 QB

Absolutely Murray, without hesitation...not a lot to give up for what you are getting...an elite QB that will be 24 years old in August that will not only put up big time points for you but will also allow you to focus your resources on other positions, love the stability of this deal...it's an absolute steal!

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3 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

I suppose it depends on the league QB scoring.  Looking at the draft, there will be a very good player at 1.07.  You have Harris, Chase, Williams, Etienne, Waddle, Bateman, and Smith.  I could see a team wanting one of those players in a league that has crappy scoring for a QB (like 4 pts per TD).

That increases Murray's value quite a bit because of all the rushing TD's.  That really boosts guys like Murray/Allen/Lamar.

 

I would rather have a guy I know puts up good fantasy production than a hope on a rookie.  

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