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****OFFICIAL DYNASTY TRADES**** (23 Viewers)
- Thread starter Gottabesweet
- Start date
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Sure he is. I'd take that deal really fast (pending DFWC clarification). I also have Goedert way higher than Engram so even if we agreed 1.01>Gibson, Goedert probably makes up the difference. But I don't like any player in this draft more than Gibson. Or a number of other veterans as well. ADP backs up Gibson > 1.01 in startups as well.
I'll take the Rodgers side of that deal by a good margin. Darnold is arguably worthless, so its the 1.8 for Rodgers and Hollywood to me. I still think Brown has WR3 ability, and Rodgers is still a top-5 QB, and feels like a QB who could still have 3-4 quality years left.
I'd take the Ekeler side here, now that Aaron Jones is signed long term.
I can't see Dillon being more than a low-end flex as long as Jones is there, and there is no reason to assume Reagor will be more than a WR3 anytime soon.
Ekeler is low-end RB1, and an every week starter. I have to assume the team dealing Ekeler is awful, and has no intention of being a contender this year. Even then, this isn't much of a haul.
I actually like this deal for the owner trading the 1.1. I think its unlikely any rookie will be as good as Gibson should be this year. I think Gibson is only going to get better as he gets move comfortable at RB, and has top-5 upside if he takes a bigger slice of the receiving pie.
Goedert is also an upgrade from Engram too.
Its possible the owner could have gotten a better deal for the 1.1, but this is still a good haul to me. 1.1 is crazy overrated if people would prefer it to a sizeable TE upgrade, and a 23 year old RB, in a good system who already has a 1,000 yard 10+ TD season and has much freakier tools than any RB in this draft.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Gibson is being drafted right with the top rookie in startups.
Goedert >>> engram
Goedert >>> engram
barackdhouse
Footballguy
He is being drafted ahead of them in most startups I've seen and in ADP I've looked at. But there *are* lots of other sources and it is good to share this stuff. I was sort of assuming Gibson was considered consensus as greater than 1.01, on paper if even for a hater.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
And I'd trade Gibson for the 1.1 in a heartbeat.
Since Engram sucks, of course Goedert is better. But I think people are fooling themselves thinking that he'll reach peak Ertz levels.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
The more I think about it the more I don't really understand what the team giving up Gibson/Goedert is thinking. I'm going to assume they are making a play for Pitts. And if they have conviction with that decision then I can see it. If they have RB depth to spare. If it is for Chase and they have RB room to spare I can kind of see it. I don't think it is unbalanced but I don't believe in Pitts or Chase enough in terms of what I think their impact to my team would be, as much as I do in Gibson.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
I had him early last year in a startup and traded him away for too little. So it's not like I DISlike him.
But I honestly can't see favoring him over Chase or Harris.
I can sorta see the case for Chase, but I can't see it for Harris at all. Not sure Harris does anything better than Gibson, and could(and likely will) end up in a much worse situation than Washington.
Then again, I might very well argue Pitts for 1.1, so maybe I just view this rookie class differently.
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
Not saying he isn't good. Isn't "THAT" good is the relative term here. For what the charge was to get him in this trade. It is all in context. 1.1 is worth way more than him. The upgrade from Engram to Goedert (especially with a new coach and Hurts instead of Wentz) isn't even close to enough to make up the difference.
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
Landing spot will matter but if Harris ends up in Pitts, he will be better than Gibson year 1 and moving forward it won't even be close. Gibson plays for the WFT and has never been a bell cow (even in college). I don't think he even compares to 1.1.
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
I totally agree with you here. Not sure why so much love for Gibson personally. I liked him but this is just craziness in my opinion. I would jump on this trade if I had Gibson. He has the feel to me of a guy that has a Miles Sanders like year 2. If he can even stay on the field the entire season.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
I guess I might be behind the curve on Gibson. But a group of people that normally worries about touchdown regression is strangely projecting the opposite for this particular player. 
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
I just don't see him as a TD scoring type player. He is good depth and I could see an argument for 1.3 or 1.4 even though I probably like Etienne better depending on where he goes. An argument could be made for Pitts too.I guess I might be behind the curve on Gibson. But a group of people that normally worries about touchdown regression is strangely projecting the opposite for this particular player.
1.1 just gives you a player that can be a fantasy MVP like CMC or Barkley or Zeke or Gurley. I don't think Gibson is ever that player. I don't see top 3 RB potential there. RB1 for sure but top 3-5, probably not.
I think Washington is a much better landing spot than Pittsburgh. Also think Gibson is a better player than Harris. I think Gibson is arguably a top-10 RB. He already proved he's a TD scorer, he's clearly got receiving chops, and he's on an offense.
ETA: I don't see the Miles Sanders comp. Gibson showed a ton more than Sanders did as a rookie, and is a more toolsy player overall.
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Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
This is gonna sound way more aggressive than I intend it to but...it seems like people either don't watch college football or forget what they've seen.
I do agree, though, that Pittsburgh is a less than ideal spot.
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You just listed 4 backs who went in the top 10 of the draft there’s not a top 10 back in this draft.
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
kutta
Footballguy
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
He was 10th so we won't have one that high but Taylor was a 2nd round pick last year and he still has that kind of upside. Gibson doesn't. Harris in the right spot does. Gibson will always be capped and could have injury issues his entire career.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
And that makes a big difference in the value of the 1.1. Sure you could find that guy without the NFL draft capital in someone like Dalvin or Kamara or Taylor but the 1.1 is far more valuable when there’s a standout top back with the NFL draft capital to back it up like the fantasy MVP candidates he mentioned. I don’t see any particular reason Gibson isn’t as likely to be a fantasy stud as any of the RBs from this class given what he showed on the field against NFL players.
Interesting, you know this how? Anyone could have injury issues their entire career...
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Sorry but this argument is so all over the place I don't really even know how to refute it.
1.1 in fantasy drafts has high-value because it's assigned to the players that are the most valuable at that position - not necessarily where they went in the draft.
And besides, were not talking about picks where the players hypothetical anymore. We're talking about actual players now.
Najee Harris ran for 26 (!!) touchdowns last year and caught 43 passes and four touchdowns on a team with two teammates who are going to be top 10-ish wide receivers in the NFL draft. What more does a guy have to do?
No need to apologize for not understanding, I’m happy to simplify. The poster I quoted said he would rather chase MVP candidates in this draft (presumably at Rb) than have someone like Gibson then he listed 4 guys whose profiles we will not see in this draft. This is because those guys were taken in the top 10 of the NFL draft and no rb in this draft will have that draft capital.
Your bolded makes me believe you don’t put much stock in the NFL draft ie draft capital? And that you see the 1.1 equal every year? I strongly disagree with both these things. I like Harris a lot. This wasn’t ever about him as a player.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
If you don't think that then we're not having the same discussion.
Nor am I interested in continuing it.
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
Nobody knows anything for sure. Just giving my opinion. I think the Gibson love is way too generous in here for the most part but I am not immune to being wrong. Just don't see it there. I don't see true top 3-5 upside there. Harris I do. He was a monster in college and can catch the ball. Not sure why Gibson is so much more coveted here.Cobbler1 said:
barackdhouse
Footballguy
JFC the draft cannot get here fast enough.
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
The value does very and I was using specific players as examples because we have a specific player in Gibson to evaluate in the trade. 1.1 is just more valuable than a player like Gibson. I don't think its really much of a question really either.Cobbler1 said:
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
I just don't get why everybody's fawning over a third rounder that had fewer than 15 carries and fewer than 75 yards rushing in 12 of 16 games, and zero touchdowns in half the games. That's all.
Blick
Footballguy
Again those players you mentioned have a key aspect in their profile that will be missing from all RBs in this years class. And that very important piece makes this 1.1 less valuable than if Harris were projected to go top 5-10 like those guys mentioned. To the point where someone may prefer a young, big, fast Rb who has produced in the NFL already. That’s all I was saying.
Weird cherry picked stats. He didn’t play 16 games. He had 11 tds in 13 regular season games.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Because it shows, in a pretty simple manner, that he wasn't all that productive...or even used.
How about 4.0 YPC or less in 8/16? Or that five of the 11 TDs came in two games.
He had a decent year. But that's all it looks like - decent. The expectation that the WFT will up his workload considerably isn't a bet I'm willing to make either.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
If you change that to 2nd or 3rd rounder then you're talking about 4 out of the top 10 ranked dynasty running backs right now.
I am not big on Gibson personally, and own him nowhere. But he did more than D'Andre Swift, JK Dobbins, or Cam Akers last year and was drafted in a similar spot (only roughly 10 picks behind Dobbins/Akers). I think it's absolutely 100% fair for people to consider him a top dynasty back right now with plenty of upside.
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Yeah but in spite of that I still think Jonathan Taylor will be a good player this year.
Oh whoops, you were talking about Gibson, not Taylor who basically also fits those metrics*
* Technically Taylor was 4.1 YPC or less in 8/16 and 4 of his 11 TDs came in two games, but close enough.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
I was trying to point out that draft capital doesn't matter. And I'm not very high on those other three guys either.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Okay, you got me.Yeah but in spite of that I still think Jonathan Taylor will be a good player this year.
Oh whoops, you were talking about Gibson, not Taylor who basically also fits those metrics*
* Technically Taylor was 4.1 YPC or less in 8/16 and 4 of his 11 TDs came in two games, but close enough.
But that's also where I think the discussion is all over the map. Taylor had a lot more usage than Gibson - just like the latter's experience in college. And like I said before, for a group that does a lot of hand wringing about hyper efficiency and touchdown regression - it's mysteriously absent here.
He's an inkblot test. Some people see the next big thing because of the positives, others see the next James Connor.
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
I think he will be decent like you said but I want more upside at 1.1 no matter the year. He doesn't give that to me. For all the reasons you pointed out.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Again, I am not personally that high on Gibson but it is a bit surprising to me that people would consider a converted WR who's first experience playing RB was as a rookie in the NFL with no offseason and who walked into that situation and blew away everyone's expectations would be considered a guy who lacks upside.
He's a running back who is in a pretty good situation, can catch, has a 3 down skillset, and came out the first time he'd ever played running back and ran for 4.7ypc over the course of a season in the NFL. I have no idea what the future holds for Gibson but "capped upside" is the absolute last phrase I would use to describe him.
He's a running back who is in a pretty good situation, can catch, has a 3 down skillset, and came out the first time he'd ever played running back and ran for 4.7ypc over the course of a season in the NFL. I have no idea what the future holds for Gibson but "capped upside" is the absolute last phrase I would use to describe him.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Fair enough. Though I think it's fair to point out that Taylor averaged 15 carries per game and Gibson, if we remove the game where he got hurt and left the game after his 2nd carry, averaged a little over 13 carries per game, so it's not a massive difference.
Obviously Taylor projects to get a lot more carries going forward than Gibson but as we've seen time and time again you don't really need 350 carries to be a top fantasy RB in the modern NFL.
250 carries is 15.5 per game. Gibson just got 13.2 per game as a rookie in his first year playing the position who didn't even have an offseason to work on the position change.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
That's not really what's being said. It started as a simple discussion of Gibson versus the 1.1.
Which to me is a discussion of, if we assume a RB at that spot, then it's a discussion of Gibson vs Harris. To me, that's not remotely close. I don't think Gibson has anywhere near the same upside as Harris.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Yeah there are two discussions going on here I think. The upside thing isn't something you said, but it's absolutely something that @Jonesin For Some Football said and has repeated multiple times, which is what I was responding to in that particular post. Sorry if that wasn't clear I should have quoted him on that part.
Again to each their own, and "upside" is a pretty subjective thing anyway, so if someone doesn't see that in him then that's fair. But I think most people do see it in him and with good reason.
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
I did say that and stand by it. I believe it. I trust my eyes and I absolutely don't see a top 3 RB there. I guess if you do then 1.1 can be worth it but I just don't see it. It is subjective for sure and I'm sure I'll draft Gibson in a couple of my redraft leagues but that price is just outlandish to me.
