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****OFFICIAL DYNASTY TRADES**** (13 Viewers)
- Thread starter Gottabesweet
- Start date
kutta
Footballguy
I don't quite get your comment. Carter is a first (1.09). And you think an additional first should be on that side. But you don't think Deebo or Kupp are worth a first by themselves. But you think the other side should include two firsts, which would make both Deebo and Kupp worth a first by themselves.
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
Not saying I view Carter as a first. Just using that as context as to why this isn't protest worthy. Edwards is worthless to me and a future 1st has less value than a 1st this year. So Carter (a 2nd in my valuation) and a late future 1st seems about fair is what I'm saying.
oukurt
Footballguy
Sky is the limit. I think he becomes a fixture in the top 10 WR rankings going forward. This is last year you will get him at his current startup ADP (9th-10th round). I believe we will be seeing a lot of Lawrence to Shenault.
I would not be able to click accept fast enough if I was offered Shenault for two future 2nds.
NE_REVIVAL
Footballguy
Had I known it was you and B. Edwards not Gus, I would have described the trade with a nicer word than horrendous, perhaps stinky would have been more appropriatebarackdhouse said:
Props to you for putting an against the consensus trade of yours out there for people to critique. Firm believer that trades need context and a bit of a setup to leave the rebuild out. I viewed the trade as who do I want this year and next and for me that is easily Kupp & Deebo. However, being in full rebuild mode, your 10k Suns like burning hatred of Kupp & Deebo plus startup adp probably makes it closer than I thought at first glance.
I'm obviously much higher on Kupp, but seems fair to say you were in too much of a hurry to sell Kupp. The time to sell a player like Kupp is in season, not July. If he starts out hot you could have gotten more for him and quite possibly a first. From everything I have read Kupp is feeling really good and while his injuries make him a little risky, day 3 rbs are risky too. Fwiw, I like Deebo (yes he is behind Aityuk) and I like Edwards (who hasn't done anything yet), but i'm not high on Carter (day 3 rb who could be big, but could easily bust). All good my man, I do admit it might be closer than I first thought but still don't like it and think you probably should have at least waited.
oukurt
Footballguy
I pray Chris Berman isn’t given the opportunity.
Break out the new look Jacksonville JAGWHYYYZZZZZBURPFARTSQUISH
barackdhouse
Footballguy
DropKick
Footballguy
One could play in best ball leagues, but most people are referring to the season when they say "Top 20 production".
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I don't like keeping timebombs on my roster but I have had discussions and really bad offers for Kupp since February. I *did* wait. I don't see people making inseason moves involving paying their 1sts more than *maybe* one or two times per league per season. Those deals don't just fall out of the sky. They are relatively rare and the odds that Kupp is *the* piece somebody feels they want is ridiculously absurdly unlikely. Waiting comes with a really, really risky downside that both those assets become untradable cloggers.
Again I think the big disconnect is that Carter apparently has a polarizing value in the community. I didn't expect him to be so hated and I admit I clearly could have gotten more value. But in my eyes I've got Carter and Kupp as roughly equal and then it is Deebo, who I don't believe in, for Edwards who I do a little bit but is clearly worth less. So I got a 3rd to balance it a little and I was thinking to myself ok I paid a small premium to get a starting RB and another WR5 or WR6 that I can afford to develop but I'm not depending on any more than the previous one that has Kittle and Aiyuk in front in a run first offense. Last I checked starting rookie RBs typically come with a premium. In Carter's case the day 3 thing doesn't bother me. And if he flashes maybe *he* is the one to sell inseason.
Anyway last thought I swear to you at least half of the FFPC owners in my leagues will never trade for a player over 26. Moving Kupp was already threading an incredibly small needle. And Deebo just isn't coveted by many.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Right but in my season long leagues I choose and compete one week at a time. Like everyone else. Top 20 doesn't win leagues. It doesn't lose you leagues either but it isn't a high bar.
DropKick
Footballguy
Bottom line is you targeted the guy you wanted, was willing to pay the price and are satisfied with your side of the deal.
It's why we play the game.
wgoldsph
Footballguy
I disagree there. If all three of your starting wrs end the season as top 20 in a league of 12, you basically cover the wr1/2 boarder.
Depends on what the rest of your team looks like, too. If you have three top-20 WR’s but you have two top-5 RB’s and a top-5 QB, you’re going to be just fine.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Sure but I thought the obsession here was to think of these things in vacuums. If we're going to bring context into it, I went from the production of Kupp in either my WR2 spot or flex to the production of my next WR up (looking at choice between Viska, Pittman, Gabriel, T Marshall and a couple others I like) which is admittedly a downgrade in FPs (call it ~2-5 per week) and arguably nil if/when one of my guys emerges, but meanwhile I get Carter in my RB2 spot and probably increased my production in that spot by about 10 FPs per week. Because I was going to be taking zeros there. And even the overall WR1 won't help me win #### if I'm putting up zeros at RB. Kupp is going to be closer to WR20 than WR1. And this team isn't going to be winning this year most likely anyway.
But yeah having three top 20 WRs is great, having three top 10 is even better. And a tall order but if we're only calling them top 20 and not top 10 then are those guys really going to be top 20 again next year? Are they locks? I will find more of them when I cross the street later and say "oh wow there is *another* WR I didn't even see over there that is startable."
Anyway, all done now. Lol. I might point out that I have put out similar offers for Carter in several other leagues over the last few days and most have been RNC but a few have pointed out just how big they are on Carter and that they expect him to have the main role day 1.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
NE_REVIVAL
Footballguy
When I said wait, I said you could likely have gotten more for him in season and don't feel that is controversial; however I don't view Kupp as a timebomb and feel he is going to have a HUGE yr. So we are polar opposites there.
I don't hate Carter at all, I view him as a 4th rd RB who could be really good or meh. He could be all that and a bag of chips, I have no idea. I don't feel strongly about him one way or the other but considering your love of him I am now reconsidering my indifference, moving him up the ranks and will never speak ill of the man again
Its all good, as DK said, you went out and got your guys so nothing wrong with that.
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foxco
Footballguy
Seems fair enough. Carter has to hit obviously but in 1 QB Wilson isn't super important and Boyd, while I still like him, obviously took a big hit with Chase/Higgins as the probable 1/2. His ceiling seems capped for the immediate future. Like you getting a 2nd as well.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Dez
Footballguy
Born to Run
Footballguy
FFPC 12 Team SF
gave: Jakobi Meyers
got: Denzel Mims
I like Mims upside in a (hopefully) ascending offense.
gave: Jakobi Meyers
got: Denzel Mims
I like Mims upside in a (hopefully) ascending offense.
Marauder
Footballguy
I'm pessimistic about Mim's upside with Davis, Moore and Crowder all probably ahead of him on the depth chart (although I did like his talent coming out of college). I'd take him over Meyers though. It's worth a gamble at that price.
smbkrypt24
Footballguy
12 team PPR. 1 QB. Short bench league.
Team A gave: E. Ebron, 1.04
Team B gave: G. Kittle
Team A gave: E. Ebron, 1.04
Team B gave: G. Kittle
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I offered him pick 8 this year and two 2022 1sts. I guess he liked this so much more he wouldn't even counter my offer.Dez said:
sushinsky4tsar
Footballguy
Well this one kind of got dragged out. I'm not sure that this is an upgrade, but the trade now stands at:
IN: K. Hunt, 2022 1st, 2023 1st -- the picks are likely late, some upside for 6-8 range
OUT: Ju Jones, Singletary, Hurts, 2022 2nd, 2023 2nd, 3.12 -- feel good about the 2nds being late
I didn't smash accept the original as some suggested due to Empire nature of the league. When someone repeats, the league ends. Mathematically, I'm forecasting that the league that will last 4 to 5 years. Current champ is somewhat weak as champs go, but probably has 8:1 odds.
I think I'm in on this version. Hunt as an RB3 will really solidify my backfield. Gus Bus and Reagor have value, but there was some potential roster cloggage with those pieces. AJB and Godwin are my WR1/W2. With Jones departing, options for my one flex spot will be: Tee Higgins/Sutton/OBJ/Hunt/Ant Brown/Goedert. Hold the 2.4 and I'm not expecting to get Sermon or Carter. BPA will probably be a WR, or Fields to replace Hurts as my backup to Mahomes (1QB).
Dez
Footballguy
Man I sure hope your right because you know what about this board is I have made 4 other block busters and every time was told I ripped off the other guy and every single team you guys have been totally wrong and I got it stuck up the wazzu. They always seem like slam dunks at the time and yes I pray I get 3 stud years out of CMC and yes those picks are likely "late" but you know who went late last year in picks in this league ? Justin Jefferson went at the 1.10 and Antonio Gibson went at the 2.04. Them some good late picks.
Here are the 4 other deals I made over the years that each one I was told how bad I ripped other guy off and not only did none work out for me they all ended pretty badly within a year or two.
--------------------------------
South Carolina gave up Ajayi, Jay MIA RB; Parker, DeVante MIA WR
Charlotte gave up Chandler, Scott FA TE; Year 2016 Draft Pick 1.06; Year 2016 Draft Pick 1.10
Wed May 4 4:35:34 p.m. ET 2016 (I would have landed Michael Thomas at the 1.10)
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Puerto Rico gave up Foles, Nick PHI QB
Charlotte gave up Gerhart, Toby JAC RB; Robinson, Adrien NYG TE; Year 2014 Draft Pick 1.12; Year 2016 Round 3 Draft Pick from Charlotte
Wed Apr 23 8:09:08 p.m. ET 2014 (Remember when Foles was the new hot QB after a 27 TD 2 INT season ? Ya me either but that 1.12 would been Beckham)
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Puerto Rico gave up Richardson, Trent IND RB
Charlotte gave up Mathews, Ryan SDC RB; Powell, Bilal NYJ RB; Bullock, Randy HOU PK; Year 2014 Round 1 Draft Pick from Charlotte; Year 2015 Round 2 Draft Pick from Charlotte; Year 2015 Round 3 Draft Pick from Las Vegas
Thu Sep 26 6:29:29 p.m. ET 2013 (Oh boy this one most of all everyone said I ripped that guy off well we know what happened with good ole Trent)
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Puerto Rico gave up Vereen, Shane NEP RB; Cruz, Victor NYG WR
Charlotte gave up Year 2013 Draft Pick 1.01; Year 2013 Draft Pick 2.05; Year 2013 Draft Pick 2.12
Sat Jul 20 5:02:38 p.m. ET 2013 (And this one I said people in my league say that would quit the league if I did another trade like this giving up "only 1 pick" for Cruz (umm that was the #1 pick folks) and well Cruz had 1 good year for me then got injured and fell off face of the earth.
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So ya this trade is great for me but so were the other 4 and they all flopped........CMC is a different animal and I love the trade because it is my only way to try and compete vs the super team that beat me by 80 pts in the championship last year but the history of luck in trades like this is not on my side.
So I pray for once you guys are right because you are all 0 for 4 so far over the past 8 years.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Seems like a bargain for Kittle in pretty much every format. I don’t see how 1.04 got this done, but kudos to team A for pulling it off.
Even if team B picks Pitts at 4, it doesn’t make sense to me.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Another bargain. I get the need for a QB, but shocked how cheap team Jefferson let team A off for. Should have been a 1st & 2nd at least, IMO.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I agree with this.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Here’s the thing....you can’t use 20-20 hindsight to judge a deal.
and I can’t evaluate the deal you’re talking about here by looking at your other past deals.
That all said, context also matters. If your team is in win now mode, and you have depth & youth, then it makes a lot of sense to send Ruggs & a bunch of picks for CMC.
It’s one of the more affordable CMC acquisitions I’ve seen.
And if you get 3 years of elite production out of him, this was a great trade.
At that point it’s irrelevant who gets taken with the 1st round pick you dealt away. That pick could be a bust as well. Ya just never know. Any pick sent away as part of a player trade is a complete mystery. Could be a HOF player, a scrub or anything in between. The success or failure of your trade partner to land that player doesn’t really have any relevant on the deal you jist made. The deal gets no better nor worse for the player selected next year. The only context that matters is how it helps or hurts your team *right now*. IMO most would say you bought relatively low on CMC here.
now, if you acquire CMC & he gets hurt, it still wasn’t a bad deal, just bad luck.
So I’ll wish you luck here, because it’s a good deal on CMC If you’re one RB away from winning it all. Still no guarantees of course, but I know if I needed a RB to Put me over the top, I wouldn’t hesitate to pull the trigger on this one.
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Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
This is a terrible trade. Basically 2 late 1sts and 2 late 2nds which wouldn't even more the needle for me. Ruggs and the 3rd aren't anything and picks at the end of the round like that might as well be 2 2nds and 2 3rds. I'd hate to see this if he went to a top end team.Dez said:
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
I don't know that this is enough for Kittle personally at his age and skill level. Ebron is just a placeholder and Kittle is elite. I traded Kittle earlier this off-season along with a 2022 2nd and got 1.8, 2023 1st (far out but a top 6 projected pick), A-Rob, Irv Smith (who I like better than Ebron), and a 2022 4th. I guess it depends on how much you value 4 and who is there though.
Looking at what those picks may have turned out to be many years later will always skew the trade evaluation. Knowing now how players turned out makes it easy to say I would have taken Player X with that pick but you don't know that at the time of the pick. It's just as likely those picks turned out to be busts as well if a different player was taken. You also get skewed by the knowledge you know now of the players involved (like Richardson failing out of the league). At the time he was coming off a huge year and was hyped by many. The fact he bombed can't be known at the time of the deal.
It's good to go back and look at deals made in the past but instead of saying that ended up being a crappy trade you need to delve into why it turned out to be a crappy trade........and just saying player X bombed isn't really figuring out the why. Why did he bomb? Was it something that had signs that you missed or something else? Figuring out the why's is definitely a good thing to do and that is how you should approach it.
Plus if you continuously miss on these "blockbuster" deals maybe you need to reevaluate your scouting abilities to see why you keep missing. There may not be a reason other than bad luck but on the other hand maybe you have a blind spot somewhere.
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
I don't play SF but this feels way light to me. Jefferson just went for 1.1 and a projected top 6 pick in 2022 in my league. I know SF is different but I'd think I'd go shopping for a different QB with a different asset if I had to go get one.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Wait - looking at this again, you’re saying team B gave up 1.02, but then you said team B is weak at QB?osiriskid said:
Why would a team weak at QB pay that draft equity for a WR in a QB-heavy draft if they need a QB?
Help me make this make sense. Did you mean to say Team A needs a QB? It’s still a pretty bad deal for the team who sold low on Jefferson (aImo), but it just doesn’t mKe sense as stated.
sushinsky4tsar
Footballguy
Team A: 2.4, 2.12, 2022 (early) 2nd, Hardman
Team B: 4.5, 4.12, 2022 (late) 4th, Hockenson
Team B: 4.5, 4.12, 2022 (late) 4th, Hockenson
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Seeing as I’m a bit ambivalent on the players involved, I’d prefer the 2.12 & early 2022 2nd side of this myself.
Hockenson has a better chance at FF relevance (I’m not a big believer in Hardman) but IMO not enough for 2 seconds, especially if one is early (assuming top 4 = “early”) - I saw some pretty solid players go early 2nd this year, for example.
if I were selling Hockenson, I’d be pretty happy with that haul.
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
I think this is a pretty even trade if it is TE premium. If TE gets normal points then it was a touch of an overpay as 4ths are really not worth a ton. I don't have a problem with it if you are in a big need for a TE but might be just a touch much to swap 3 2nds for 4ths.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
FFPC
I gave Lockett, 2022 1st (mine)
I got Carter, 2022 1st (theirs)
I gave Lockett, 2022 1st (mine)
I got Carter, 2022 1st (theirs)
Hockenson. This is the type of 3 for 1 deal that nibbles around the periphery of your roster, allowing you to avoid giving up a blue chip, but you receive a blue chip and gain two roster spots.
Carter unless the first you gave looks like a top 4 lock and somehow I doubt that's the case.
