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****OFFICIAL DYNASTY TRADES**** (11 Viewers)
- Thread starter Gottabesweet
- Start date
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Helaire-ious
Footballguy
Pwingles
Footballguy
These top 7-8 guys are never going to get fair value in a 1 qb league unless its the league where herbert fetches 2 1sts.
At this point in the season, assuming you had your rookie draft and any picks would be '22 or later, I would likely just hold him for any single pick.
if you havent had your rookie draft yet, and we are talking in terms of '21 picks, I would hold for anything less than a top 4. I also wouldnt offer a top 4 for him if I were buying.
*edit If someone offered you something like 2 mid 1sts this year, and you could turn that into Javonte and say Lawrence/Lance/Fields, I would also do that easily
In terms of players, there are plenty of players id move lamar for in 1 qb depending on the makeup of my roster, and what needs i was aiming to fill.
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Helaire-ious
Footballguy
Pwingles
Footballguy
Would be completely driven by what the makeup of my team was and what i was trying to improve in return tbh.Was talking along the lines of players .
Theres prolly about 10-12 Rb and 12-15 WR Id move him for if I had even a reasonable backup or two If it puts me over the top.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
One observation here…asking this question to a fantasy community of die hard football nerds who talk about football in March & April is going to get you a much different answer than seeing what folks will actually trade players for.
for one; there’s no context to many of the deals posted. But for another, supply & demand, and player crushes come into the equation. And finally, the “average” FF player probably doesn’t have 3 draft calcs bookmarked.
Just occurred to me seeing the 1st response that (paraphrasing) “no QB is going to get fair value in a 1 QB league”.
I mean, they might. Really depends on the league & the intensity level of owners.
Like a league made of of the last 12 people that responded. Can you imagine how difficult it would be to get a deal done?!
barackdhouse
Footballguy
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Your words not mine. As I said above I wouldn't trade Gibson for Herbert *and* the 1st on that side. I don't believe in the premise that there isn't another QB available.
To me that trade was the worst I have seen all offseason and I see it as three 1sts for Herbert. Gibson should cost two 1sts easily.
Pwingles
Footballguy
ahh yes, paraphrasing so you can get your zinger in, because if you just straight up quoted the comment, you could not get said zinger in. Good work.One observation here…asking this question to a fantasy community of die hard football nerds who talk about football in March & April is going to get you a much different answer than seeing what folks will actually trade players for.
for one; there’s no context to many of the deals posted. But for another, supply & demand, and player crushes come into the equation. And finally, the “average” FF player probably doesn’t have 3 draft calcs bookmarked.
Just occurred to me seeing the 1st response that (paraphrasing) “no QB is going to get fair value in a 1 QB league”.
I mean, they might. Really depends on the league & the intensity level of owners.
Like a league made of of the last 12 people that responded. Can you imagine how difficult it would be to get a deal done?!
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
You’re changing the scenario to suit your response though. the old Star Trek “Kobayashi Maru” tactic.
I’m saying in that scenario that Herbert is it. No one who has QBs to deal needs a RB except Bill, and you slept with Bill’s girlfriend so Bill doesn’t wanna trade with you. That leaves Steve, and he’s got Herbert but that’s his asking price.
Would you rather overpay for Herbert & have a ~70% chance at making the playoffs/40% shot at winning the league, or stand pat with whatever scrub you can stream off the WW and have a ~30% chance of making the playoffs/10% shot at winning the league?
straight answer - no Captain Kirk-ing allowed.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
No, paraphrasing because i wasn’t sure what the exact quote was and I wasn’t that invested to go quote it.
there wasn’t a zinger to get in. You missed the point of my post entirely, but get down with your bad self I guess.
Rockchild
Footballguy
I think you always want to make a good deal but sometimes you have to overpay if it puts you over the top. I'd rather the title and deal with the fallout over the next few years than looking back at what could have been. Sometimes it works out and sometimes it doesn't.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Let me tell you about a redraft season where I had Priest Holmes, who fell to me at 5.
He came out of the gate gangbusters & the Larry Johnson owner offered him to me for what I thought was way too much for a bench-riding handcuff.
We got very close, but then the LJ owner wanted me to toss in a WR3 & I balked. No deal got done.
The very next week Holmes got hurt & LJ went on to win that dude the league. Because I didn’t want to overpay my season was over.
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It's a 12-team league, Shirley the team with Gibson already has at least one serviceable QB on the roster. Or was there literally nothing at all?You’re changing the scenario to suit your response though. the old Star Trek “Kobayashi Maru” tactic.
I’m saying in that scenario that Herbert is it. No one who has QBs to deal needs a RB except Bill, and you slept with Bill’s girlfriend so Bill doesn’t wanna trade with you. That leaves Steve, and he’s got Herbert but that’s his asking price.
Would you rather overpay for Herbert & have a ~70% chance at making the playoffs/40% shot at winning the league, or stand pat with whatever scrub you can stream off the WW and have a ~30% chance of making the playoffs/10% shot at winning the league?
straight answer - no Captain Kirk-ing allowed.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
In my case sure I would take Herbert there. But that seems like such a far fetched scenario it's not really any more worth worrying about than whether I would take the Herbert side if I were playing a league where players named after adorable VW Beetle movie stars get triple points.You’re changing the scenario to suit your response though. the old Star Trek “Kobayashi Maru” tactic.
I’m saying in that scenario that Herbert is it. No one who has QBs to deal needs a RB except Bill, and you slept with Bill’s girlfriend so Bill doesn’t wanna trade with you. That leaves Steve, and he’s got Herbert but that’s his asking price.
Would you rather overpay for Herbert & have a ~70% chance at making the playoffs/40% shot at winning the league, or stand pat with whatever scrub you can stream off the WW and have a ~30% chance of making the playoffs/10% shot at winning the league?
straight answer - no Captain Kirk-ing allowed.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Well, Bill did, but @barackdhouse slept with his girl in this hypothetical, so Bill doesn't want to deal with him. He won't go bowling with him any more either, which seems a little extreme, but hey, that's Bill for ya. Friggin Bill, man.
But yeah, that's the scenario. Would you rather over-pay knowing it gives you a great chance to win, or not make a deal taking your chances with the WW?
And stop calling me Shirley.
ETA: I'd said in that scenario, barackdhouse had Watson/Luck. But for the sake of argument, let's say he has Darnold. So stand pat with Darnold or overpay for Herbert?
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I am proposing this rule at my draft. I'll keep you posted on how the vote goes.
lol
My point was about context. And yes, it was a hyperbolic exaggeration. But at least now we know not to leave our girl alone with @barackdhouse, and that's what's important here.
That and that sentient cars can also defy the laws of physics.
*ETA: this is all in good fun, and I mean no offense to barackdhouse. I'm sure he's as trustworthy as the day is long and would never actually do something like that.
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Helaire-ious
Footballguy
For reference, I tried getting Mahomes, but the other guy wanted my 1st round pick PLUS Lamar for him. I passed, but all this overpay vs regret it later has me rethinking & perhaps try to revisit a deal, but 1st try a player he hasn't rejected yet vs my 1stOne observation here…asking this question to a fantasy community of die hard football nerds who talk about football in March & April is going to get you a much different answer than seeing what folks will actually trade players for.
for one; there’s no context to many of the deals posted. But for another, supply & demand, and player crushes come into the equation. And finally, the “average” FF player probably doesn’t have 3 draft calcs bookmarked.
Just occurred to me seeing the 1st response that (paraphrasing) “no QB is going to get fair value in a 1 QB league”.
I mean, they might. Really depends on the league & the intensity level of owners.
Like a league made of of the last 12 people that responded. Can you imagine how difficult it would be to get a deal done?!
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
That's a tough scenario. Sounds a lot like he just doesn't want to give up Mahomes, and that was how he said so.
I sold Mahomes for the equivalent of 5x 1st round picks, so it's not like he's being outrageous.
Helaire-ious
Footballguy
He wants to move him as he has him on the trade block. He just is hoping for an overpay from someone & no one has as he has been on the block for a while now.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yeah, I mean Mahomes & LJax don't seem that far apart value-wise in my opinion, though the trade calcs all give a big bump to Mahomes, so at this point it's gonna be a standoff between you two to see who blinks.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Assuming I had a reasonably strong team I would pay a 1st, assuming it's not early, to upgrade to Mahomes from any QB other than maybe Murray.
As history has shown us time and again the reality is a LOT of these top QBs are going to regress over the next few years, probably pretty heavily. There was a time when Matt Schaub and middle of his prime Peyton Manning were considered somewhat interchangeable, and we're just a few years removed from Jared Goff and Carson Wentz being the top dynasty QBs and even closer than that to Baker Mayfield being considered a top 3 QB. A few years before that Jameis, Mariota, and Carr were all borderline top 5 guys worth as much as Herbert, LJax, etc are now.
That's not to say Mahomes isn't without his own risk but to me if we're talking about 1 or 2 of these guys being a future HoF, career long elite fantasy QB a la Peyton/Brady/Rodgers then Mahomes is way ahead at the top of that list of who is most likely to be that guy. All the rest of them, and especially the untraditional LJax, it wouldn't really surprise me that much if 5 years from now we were talking about them like we talk about Goff, Wentz, Stafford, etc who have little value in 1qb leagues. And it's likely that one or two of them will even be Flacco/Jameis/Baker/RG3 where they fall off the fantasy 1qb map completely.
To me a mid/late 1st is a fair price to pay to make sure I'm getting a 25 year old Peyton rather than a 23 year old RG3 or a 24 year old Jared Goff.
As history has shown us time and again the reality is a LOT of these top QBs are going to regress over the next few years, probably pretty heavily. There was a time when Matt Schaub and middle of his prime Peyton Manning were considered somewhat interchangeable, and we're just a few years removed from Jared Goff and Carson Wentz being the top dynasty QBs and even closer than that to Baker Mayfield being considered a top 3 QB. A few years before that Jameis, Mariota, and Carr were all borderline top 5 guys worth as much as Herbert, LJax, etc are now.
That's not to say Mahomes isn't without his own risk but to me if we're talking about 1 or 2 of these guys being a future HoF, career long elite fantasy QB a la Peyton/Brady/Rodgers then Mahomes is way ahead at the top of that list of who is most likely to be that guy. All the rest of them, and especially the untraditional LJax, it wouldn't really surprise me that much if 5 years from now we were talking about them like we talk about Goff, Wentz, Stafford, etc who have little value in 1qb leagues. And it's likely that one or two of them will even be Flacco/Jameis/Baker/RG3 where they fall off the fantasy 1qb map completely.
To me a mid/late 1st is a fair price to pay to make sure I'm getting a 25 year old Peyton rather than a 23 year old RG3 or a 24 year old Jared Goff.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I agree with most of this, but some (not necessarily me) believe that LJax has another gear, where he becomes a passing sensation and continues to utilize his legs.
And there are others who believe that Mahomes, who's already missed time with a knee injury, takes a lot of risks outside of the pocket while not being as physically gifted as LJax, adding some risk.
Again, I am just playing devil's advocate here, but couldn't the above also be said for Mahomes? That what we've seen is potentially what he is, and that his 50 TD season isn't likely to repeat?
I'd have a hard time paying top upgrade there, because I'm just not sure it's that much of an upgrade. If I have LJax, I'm probably looking to invest at other positions because I already have a young top 5 starting QB. So to me the deal doesn't make that much sense anyway, but I do appreciate your POV here.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I didn't change anything. I reject your premise. Period. Would a trade partner be allowed to make a similar decision or would they be accused of changing the rules too? That Kobayashi Maru rabbit hole made even less sense than your defense of this deal. I didn't change ####. Have you had the rookie draft yet? How high did Lawrence go? That is the ceiling of the price I would pay for a QB. Where did Fields/Wilson go? Somewhere above you mentioned Darnold. Yes I would slam my hand into the keyboard to move Herbert for Gibson and a 1st, even if I only had a backup on my roster, like Mariota or Minshew or some garbage. With Darnold there it isn't even a concern.You’re changing the scenario to suit your response though. the old Star Trek “Kobayashi Maru” tactic.
Kobayashi Maru? No this is just me saying I would find a QB another way. If I were in that league that would be an option would it not? I wouldn't be accused of changing the rules if I rejected that deal would I? I'd be happy with Darnold, maybe one of the top rookie QBs, and WW streaming. Lots of people play single QB that way.
Making the assumption that Herbert puts a team over the top is not something I'm obligated to go along with.
rockaction
Footballguy
Herbert for Gibson and a first is outright theft for the side getting Gibson almost regardless of the situation. Just wanted to chime in, hypothetically speaking or not.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Fair enough. Was just having some fun with a scenario-based approach. It’s not that important.
FYI, "rejecting the premise" is the same thing. Thus the Kirk reference.
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rockaction
Footballguy
By the way, I think Herbert is nasty as all get out. Just his positional value in a 1 QB setting that most people play in is very low. In the league I play in, QBs are at a premium in a 1 QB setting and Herbert still isn't worth Gibson alone, never mind adding a first to it. Like barackdhouse said, I'd rather go into my year with Andy Dalton starting at quarterback than make that deal.
EthnicFury
Footballguy
I mean is there really value in a dynasty trade thread to reiterating on every trade that “sometimes your individual team situation makes it worth overpaying”?
Im not sure we need to pump the brakes and say “well what if it was the best they could get and the last piece they needed to win the money” every time a valuation is bad. Yes, there may be times when a bad trade in a vacuum makes sense. But are we here to figure out rough player values or rehabilitate the honor of owners who might have made brutal looking trades for outlier reasons?
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
It’s not even preseason yet. It’s a fun discussion. We really don’t need 40 people saying a trade is bad either, nor is that the point of this topic, yet here we are.
So if everyone is saying it’s terrible on it’s face, is there any harm done by suggesting that perhaps there’s a context in which it isn’t terrible & giving an example of when I used to think like everyone else until a scenario unfolded that proved me wrong?
Or is that discussion verboten? lemme go check the forum rules, brb
EthnicFury
Footballguy
Verboten? Harm done? Nah I just think everyone knows it already.
I’m not gonna go to some financial advice board and post about buying 3 quarters for a dollar once in college because I needed to do laundry in the replies every time someone makes an investment that looks like it’s gonna lose em 25%. Yeah sometimes losing value makes sense for other reasons, we get it. It’s also a bad trade barring some weird, rarely applicable outlier situation
I’m not gonna go to some financial advice board and post about buying 3 quarters for a dollar once in college because I needed to do laundry in the replies every time someone makes an investment that looks like it’s gonna lose em 25%. Yeah sometimes losing value makes sense for other reasons, we get it. It’s also a bad trade barring some weird, rarely applicable outlier situation
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Except that's not remotely a good analogy to this, because everyone has quarters and they’re all worth $.25. And everyone agrees they’re only worth $.25
a much better analogy would be someone with a rare sports card trading it for 3 semi-rare sports cards because the rare one completes their set, making the sum of the parts even more valuable.
That’s exactly like the ready to win team overpaying for a fantasy asset, which is the framing I employed.
Like I said, I own neither Herbert nor Gibson, I would take the Gibson side all day, and I think it’s an overpay. I’m not defending the deal at all.
I’m just suggesting it could be viewed in a more favorable light than some here are shining on it. And I find it interesting that this deal is getting so much more attention than the Amari Cooper for McLaurin (with a free 1st tossed in) when that’s an almost equally bad deal, though people “like Terry McClaurin so they could see overpaying to get him” yet that logic disappears with Herbert?
if you disagree with me, that’s fine. Welcome to the club I guess.
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King of the Jungle
Footballguy
The only thing I would add is that I personally find it frustrating not having “a guy” at QB. I don’t like streaming or guessing between 2-3 mediocre/poor options. I can see where a team who has struggled to find a consistent option there seeking out a trade for one. In dynasty I have always focused on making the strength of my team at the QB and WR positions. I like the longevity and I have had a lot of success with that strategy. That being said it is hard to justify the first being on the Gibson side.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Best response I’ve read on this, tbh.
FF managers vary wildly on their comfort level with exposure at various positions.
I recently dealt Mahomes, and in a SF I’m going forward with Carr, Daniel Jones & Z.Wilson. But not everyone is comfortable with that.
if it doesn’t work out, I’ll be in a good position to get a QB in 2023, or I’ll move aging but still talented assets to upgrade the position.
there’s also the possibility that the team with Gibson was deep at the position & possibly wasn’t heavily invested in Gibson. Now you and I know that what you pay for an asset shouldn’t determine what you command later for that same asset. But to some people, it does.
So if that owner is of the same mindset as you & feels Herbert is “the next” QB of the future, and they have a chance to get them, I can understand an overpay.
Not something I’d do. Nor is it something I’d recommend they do. But if they did it, I can think of a rationale for doing so.
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Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
This doesn't seem increadibly terrible if you think your pick will be late. Maybe ask for a 2nd or something back. It is a lot and I have no problem turning it down.
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
Wow this conversation got extended big time. I would say that this can make sense for some people and you can talk yourself in to anything if you want. I get the argument if you are one of those people that hates to stream QBs, or believe that is the one piece you are missing. However, all we can do here is judge a trade on its merits. An owner's feelings don't come in to play here really. When it comes down to it, if they are happy then great but even if they are this is a bad trade. They lost by a ton and it isn't a good business decision but fantasy is mostly about having fun so if that makes their team more fun to them then more power to them.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Truer words never spoken.Jonesin For Some Football said:
DropKick
Footballguy
What I appreciate most about this is when someone has strong convictions about a player; especially when they value someone higher than you because it is an opportunity to reconsider your stance. A converted wide... I feared there might be too much gadgetry in his game and that concern had me rank Gibson possibly lower than I should.barackdhouse said:
That being said, "two firsts easily" might be a little exaggerated, especially focusing on the last word. So, I'm curious, what is the highest pick you would surrender for Gibson in this draft and what pick might you pair with it?
For example, some might prefer an early pick to Gibson... Would you trade the 1.5 and 1.6 or something more like a 1.7 and 1.12?
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
agree with this. He’s worth a 1st. I don’t think he’s worth a second 1st.
But then a lot of folks are higher in Gibson than I am.
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jabarony
Footballguy
Taking the Herbert/Gibson values out of the discussion (for the record, I think it's Gibson = Herbert +2nd in this scenario!), I'm all for overpaying to get that missing piece that will make you a serious contender.
However that scenario would need to present itself around week 8+ of the season when you're in 3rd place, 1-seed in reach, but missing the playoffs in the rearview. This type of trade should not occur in July.
smbkrypt24
Footballguy
This is another example of a player I would gladly pay 2 firsts. As another poster said he is going in the 2nd round of startup drafts.
ADP is not the end all be all, but it helps. In most years you can get a single 1st round pick for players drafted in the 5th, 6th, and sometimes 7th round of startups. Players in the 2nd and 3rd round startup should easily yield multiple firsts.
Pwingles
Footballguy
according to one source (fantasy pros), 1 qb startup adp for gibson vs herbert
21 overall (rb12) and 65 overall (qb6)
Seems alright to me.
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
I think he is worth 2 1sts but not early 1sts. Should be like a mid 1st and a late or way future 1st.
smbkrypt24
Footballguy
yeah, I was more thinking of future 1sts like 2022 when typing since otherwise exact values would be known now for 2021 1sts. But thinking this year I would slot him at 1.03/1.04. So a mid and late seems right this year as well because it would take a 1.7/1.11 combo to possibly get up to that slot.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I wonder then why his ADP is depressed in redraft?
Ah well - more for you. I wish I had a Gibson to sell you for that price. I disagree with that valuation, but I'm just 1 dude.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
I wouldn't pay 2 1sts for him personally as I'm not that high on him. He wasn't the work horse in college and got hurt his 1st year already in the pros. However, I think that is what his value is at. I wouldn't sell him for less than 2 1sts or top 3-4 pick this year but I don't have any stake in him at all. In PPR, he is ranked as a 2nd round pick in redraft....not sure that is "depressed." Plus, he is young and showed promise.
