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****OFFICIAL 2021 OFF- SEASON DYNASTY TRADES****


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48 minutes ago, northern exposure said:

Sure, but those are numbers on a page. You still have to find a willing trade partner to accept the offer. In dynasty leagues where I need a young QB, I can't get Luck for anywhere near that price. In leagues where I own Luck, I would not trade him for that. The leagues I am in are all start 1 QB leagues.

Others in here have said they would move Luck for that or less, but that hasn't been my experience.

It probably depends on alternatives.  If I had Luck and WInston for example I think it'd be easy to move Luck for that.  If the other guy has Luck and Dak he might be willing to as well (were he a believer in Dak - I'm not).

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No, they won't accept

You mean it went down in a league you used to be in??  I’d go ful Vontae Davis on that league asap 

Barkley on this one, it isn't that close

14 team PPR devy league. Start 2-4 RB, 2-5 WR. 

Gave:

Diggs, McCaffrey

Got:

AJG

 

I love both Diggs and McCaffrey so this felt a little heavy but just couldn't resist getting Green. It was kind of a "last piece of the puzzle" move for a competitive roster so I was willing overpay a bit to get it done. I think Green ages really well but it still stings giving up a 23 and 21 year old for a 28-29 year old.

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2 minutes ago, ConnSKINS26 said:

14 team PPR devy league. Start 2-4 RB, 2-5 WR. 

Gave:

Diggs, McCaffrey

Got:

AJG

 

I love both Diggs and McCaffrey so this felt a little heavy but just couldn't resist getting Green. It was kind of a "last piece of the puzzle" move for a competitive roster so I was willing overpay a bit to get it done. I think Green ages really well but it still stings giving up a 23 and 21 year old for a 28-29 year old.

I'm not big on Diggs so this is a massive win for the AJG side for me.

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38 minutes ago, ConnSKINS26 said:

14 team PPR devy league. Start 2-4 RB, 2-5 WR. 

Gave:

Diggs, McCaffrey

Got:

AJG

 

I love both Diggs and McCaffrey so this felt a little heavy but just couldn't resist getting Green. It was kind of a "last piece of the puzzle" move for a competitive roster so I was willing overpay a bit to get it done. I think Green ages really well but it still stings giving up a 23 and 21 year old for a 28-29 year old.

I agree with everything you are saying, right down to where I think Green's style of play ages well,  but I would take Diggs and McCaffrey if I was picking a side.

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3 hours ago, ConnSKINS26 said:

14 team PPR devy league. Start 2-4 RB, 2-5 WR. 

Gave:

Diggs, McCaffrey

Got:

AJG

 

I love both Diggs and McCaffrey so this felt a little heavy but just couldn't resist getting Green. It was kind of a "last piece of the puzzle" move for a competitive roster so I was willing overpay a bit to get it done. I think Green ages really well but it still stings giving up a 23 and 21 year old for a 28-29 year old.

Nice deal

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Some recent deals for input: 

For some context Cooks becomes my #2 WR (start 3 or 4). Mathews and Anderson were not in my plans (this was orphen dynasty team I just took over. In addition, I think the #1 pick i gave up in 2018 will be a late pick and the 2nd I picked up should be an early one. 

Edited by hoffman0001
typo
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10 hours ago, northern exposure said:

Sure, but those are numbers on a page. You still have to find a willing trade partner to accept the offer. In dynasty leagues where I need a young QB, I can't get Luck for anywhere near that price. In leagues where I own Luck, I would not trade him for that. The leagues I am in are all start 1 QB leagues.

Others in here have said they would move Luck for that or less, but that hasn't been my experience.

You'll need a sounder argument than that. You could say that about anything regarding numbers and then use your sole experience to try to discredit it. I'll take a large sample over a small one any day. I do agree with above poster it's situation dependent but 1.3/2.9 to me is about even on balance.

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On 3/15/2017 at 4:25 AM, Spike said:

Zealots Field (PPR)

Start 1QB/1-3RB/3-5WR/1-3TE (and a kicker and some IDPs).

Traded:

Andrew Luck and Jesse James

For:

Hunter Henry, 2017 1.03, 2017 2.09 and 2018 1st (almost certain to be top 3)

My remaining QBs are the Patriots trio, Kirk Cousins and Ryan Tannehill; his were Brock Osweiler and Matthew Stafford.

 

Don't shoot the messenger, folks, he came to me.  Some people are willing to pay anything for a top QB.

That woujd not get it done in my league. Start 1 qb, 6ptd TD. All depends on the owners, of course. Our owners hoard qb. 

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1 hour ago, jeaton6 said:

You'll need a sounder argument than that. You could say that about anything regarding numbers and then use your sole experience to try to discredit it. I'll take a large sample over a small one any day. I do agree with above poster it's situation dependent but 1.3/2.9 to me is about even on balance.

But,what are we talking about here? When you disagreed with my opinion earlier, you stated that the price for Luck was justified by looking at ADP data. DLF bases their ADP data on mock drafts, which can vary wildly from startup drafts. I've seen people draft far differently in mock drafts than they do in an actual startups because they are testing draft strategies out and looking at the results. Ex. If I draft a QB late, how does this impact my roster, if I go WR/WR in the 1st 2 rounds what do I end up with on my roster, etc. 

People can be overcome by rookie fever in mock drafts and there is also a tendency towards "groupthink" in them. 

DLF also ranks Luck as the #1 dynasty QB and that only gets you 1.03 and a low 2nd round pick? You and others can agree with this, but I don't have to. These are opinions, there is a lot more gray than there is black and white.

Once the NFL draft happens and we see where the rookies land, I might be more inclined to agree with you. But, for now, I don't.

Edited by northern exposure
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2 hours ago, northern exposure said:

But,what are we talking about here? When you disagreed with my opinion earlier, you stated that the price for Luck was justified by looking at ADP data. DLF bases their ADP data on mock drafts, which can vary wildly from startup drafts. I've seen people draft far differently in mock drafts than they do in an actual startups because they are testing draft strategies out and looking at the results. Ex. If I draft a QB late, how does this impact my roster, if I go WR/WR in the 1st 2 rounds what do I end up with on my roster, etc. 

People can be overcome by rookie fever in mock drafts and there is also a tendency towards "groupthink" in them. 

DLF also ranks Luck as the #1 dynasty QB and that only gets you 1.03 and a low 2nd round pick? You and others can agree with this, but I don't have to. These are opinions, there is a lot more gray than there is black and white.

Once the NFL draft happens and we see where the rookies land, I might be more inclined to agree with you. But, for now, I don't.

Trading a qb in 1qb dynasty is difficult. The position is devalued on a whole, even if it is the #1 qb. You can get by with a couple mid range qbs and not lose too many points per week. People don't give up top 5 picks for qbs very often, and usually it's because of an injury and they are a competing team if they do. I don't think the mocks are that skewed because of people trying different strategies. Henry/1.03/2.09/2018 1st is a nice haul for Luck. 

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8 hours ago, battlestar said:

12 Team PPR Start 1-3 RB 2-5 WR

Gave

Amari Cooper, Deandre Washington, Malcolm Mitchell 2018 2nd, 2019 3rd

Got

Julio Jones, Cameron Artis-Payne, Trumaine Pope, 2019 2nd

I'll take Julio. As much as I like Cooper, Julio has several more years of 18-20 PPR PPG. Cooper could get there sure, but give me the guy who is currently the competitive advantage. 

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10 hours ago, ConnSKINS26 said:

14 team PPR devy league. Start 2-4 RB, 2-5 WR. 

Gave:

Diggs, McCaffrey

Got:

AJG

I love both Diggs and McCaffrey so this felt a little heavy but just couldn't resist getting Green. It was kind of a "last piece of the puzzle" move for a competitive roster so I was willing overpay a bit to get it done. I think Green ages really well but it still stings giving up a 23 and 21 year old for a 28-29 year old.

Terrific trade. Not on board with Diggs as a perennial WR2. 

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1 hour ago, northern exposure said:

But,what are we talking about here? When you disagreed with my opinion earlier, you stated that the price for Luck was justified by looking at ADP data. DLF bases their ADP data on mock drafts, which can vary wildly from startup drafts. I've seen people draft far differently in mock drafts than they do in an actual startups because they are testing draft strategies out and looking at the results. Ex. If I draft a QB late, how does this impact my roster, if I go WR/WR in the 1st 2 rounds what do I end up with on my roster, etc. 

People can be overcome by rookie fever in mock drafts and there is also a tendency towards "groupthink" in them. 

DLF also ranks Luck as the #1 dynasty QB and that only gets you 1.03 and a low 2nd round pick? You and others can agree with this, but I don't have to. These are opinions, there is a lot more gray than there is black and white.

Once the NFL draft happens and we see where the rookies land, I might be more inclined to agree with you. But, for now, I don't.

DLF is based on 6 mocks per month. The voting data we are loooking at in this forum is based on 60-100 votes per poll. 1.3 and Luck were within a couple spots. Similar value.

You think people are overcome by rookie fever in mocks more so than real drafts? I don't.

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19 minutes ago, jeaton6 said:

You think people are overcome by rookie fever in mocks more so than real drafts? I don't.

Agreed. The rookies will only rise in real drafts, exponentially more so after we see the landings. Dynasty ADP in Jan-March is always heavily favored toward veterans. 

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7 hours ago, hoffman0001 said:

Some recent deals for input: 

For some context Cooks becomes my #2 WR (start 3 or 4). Mathews and Anderson were not in my plans (this was orphen dynasty team I just took over. In addition, I think the #1 pick i gave up in 2018 will be a late pick and the 2nd I picked up should be an early one. 

Cooks for me

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2 minutes ago, jeaton6 said:

12 Team PPR. 1 point for 10 carries.                  1 RB/3 WR/1 TE/ 1 Flex

Gave: 1.6/Goff 

Got: Ajayi/Wentz/3.6

On value, I think the ajayi side wins.  Ajayi is probably going to have a start up adp earlier than the guy that goes 1.6, and Wentz is much better than Goff. 

But I like the deal for the 1.6 side.  You most likely got ajayi and wentz for second round picks and flipped them for 1.6 two years later plus added a young qb with some small amount of value if only because he was taken 1.1 in last year's draft.  This is good exit value especially if you're not a huge ajayi believer.

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2 minutes ago, bostonfred said:

On value, I think the ajayi side wins.  Ajayi is probably going to have a start up adp earlier than the guy that goes 1.6, and Wentz is much better than Goff. 

But I like the deal for the 1.6 side.  You most likely got ajayi and wentz for second round picks and flipped them for 1.6 two years later plus added a young qb with some small amount of value if only because he was taken 1.1 in last year's draft.  This is good exit value especially if you're not a huge ajayi believer.

What you paid shouldn't matter. Sunk cost. Business 101.

Edited by jeaton6
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15 minutes ago, jeaton6 said:

What you paid shouldn't matter. Sunk cost. Business 101.

Sure, I get that.  But the dynasty trade market is inefficient. You only have a handful of potential buyers, and not all of them value things the same way or have things you want. 

One way to take advantage of that inefficiency is to flip your second and third round picks as soon as their value goes up to try to accumulate veterans or firsts.  Unless you're legit sold on a guy, in the long run you'll do better that way, More second round guys flash than really emerge.

I am not sold on ajayi actually emerging as a stud, so I'm fine with moving him for a slightly below market deal. 

When I say that on value I prefer the Ajayi side, I mean I think the market would generally prefer Ajayi, so I could probably flip ajayi for more than I could flip 1.6 for.  But picks are fungible.  There might not be anyone in your specific league willing to give a first for ajayi, but i can move 1.6 to a lot more people or bundle it in a trade a lot more easily. 

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10 minutes ago, bostonfred said:

Sure, I get that.  But the dynasty trade market is inefficient. You only have a handful of potential buyers, and not all of them value things the same way or have things you want. 

One way to take advantage of that inefficiency is to flip your second and third round picks as soon as their value goes up to try to accumulate veterans or firsts.  Unless you're legit sold on a guy, in the long run you'll do better that way, More second round guys flash than really emerge.

I am not sold on ajayi actually emerging as a stud, so I'm fine with moving him for a slightly below market deal. 

When I say that on value I prefer the Ajayi side, I mean I think the market would generally prefer Ajayi, so I could probably flip ajayi for more than I could flip 1.6 for.  But picks are fungible.  There might not be anyone in your specific league willing to give a first for ajayi, but i can move 1.6 to a lot more people or bundle it in a trade a lot more easily. 

I agree you may have fewer Ajayi buyers than 1.6 buyers but possibly not. Those that are actively trying to win this year will much prefer the pick. 

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39 minutes ago, bostonfred said:

2.5 > 2018 2nd

1.10 > Shepard

Not sure why you'd do this, really.  

Shepard was 1.5 or 1.6 in most drafts last year and now he's not even worth a late 1st?  What happened last year to cause him to lose value?  If anything, he showed more than most rookies do.  Marshall may be a short-term road block but that shouldn't impact his overall value (see D. Henry, for example). 

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4 minutes ago, jeaton6 said:

I agree you may have fewer Ajayi buyers than 1.6 buyers but possibly not. Those that are actively trying to win this year will much prefer the pick. 

I think you mean they will much prefer the player.  

It really depends on the league.  I think a lot of win now guys are going to have visions of Ezekiel Elliott with the rb they get at 1.6, and there are other win now guys who might acquire 1.6 so they can bundle him to a rebuilder who only has one or two good young players. 

In my experience, the market for picks includes win now guys, but the market for veterans does not include veterans. 

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3 minutes ago, bostonfred said:

I think you mean they will much prefer the player.  

It really depends on the league.  I think a lot of win now guys are going to have visions of Ezekiel Elliott with the rb they get at 1.6, and there are other win now guys who might acquire 1.6 so they can bundle him to a rebuilder who only has one or two good young players. 

In my experience, the market for picks includes win now guys, but the market for veterans does not include veterans. 

Yes. Autocorrect.

I think you mean the market for veterans does not include rebuilders....

I don't think most 1.6 holders will have Zeke in there head. He was consensus 1.1 last year: 1.6 is to be 3rd or 4th best RB. I don't think anyone expects McCaffrey to be Zeke. Some may see Mixon there but he comes with plenty of risk.

Edited by jeaton6
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1 minute ago, gianmarco said:

Shepard was 1.5 or 1.6 in most drafts last year and now he's not even worth a late 1st?  What happened last year to cause him to lose value?  If anything, he showed more than most rookies do.  Marshall may be a short-term road block but that shouldn't impact his overall value (see D. Henry, for example). 

I didn't think Shepard was worth 1.5 or 1.6 last year.  I had him after Elliott, Henry, Coleman, Doctson, Treadwell, Thomas, Dixon, and actually a bunch more. I think I had him about 14th. I actually think his value appreciated a little before Marshall showed up. But he isn't startable now.  And there are a lot of receivers I think can become startable.

I'd rather have a lot of young veteran receivers.  Tyler Lockett, for example.  They seem like real similar guys to me. I'd rather have John Ross.  I don't usually like speed guys, but he's the speediest speed guy we've ever seen.  I'd rather have Kupp or Carlos, if they end up on decent teams, because I view them as similar talents but they may have a faster path to relevance. 

I don't know what pick I'd give for Shepard, because I'm not looking to buy.  I would guess there are more leagues with owners looking to sell Shepard than leagues where people are hot to buy him. 

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How about this: 

Form some context this was a team I just took over and my main goal was to clean up my roster. None of these players are expected to start. I don't have Elliot but traded with the guy who did. Maclin would have been my #4 WR in a start 3-4 league. I have some younger more explosive players to replace him. This is all about upside for me and having a young quality WR for the future, and getting some value while cleaning up the roster. 

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10 minutes ago, jeaton6 said:

I don't think most 1.6 holders will have Zeke in there head. He was consensus 1.1 last year: 1.6 is to be 3rd or 4th best RB. I don't think anyone expects McCaffrey to be Zeke. Some may see Mixon there but he comes with plenty of risk.

I think a lot of people drafting McCaffrey will expect or at least hope to use him as a starter this year.  

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7 minutes ago, bostonfred said:

I didn't think Shepard was worth 1.5 or 1.6 last year.  I had him after Elliott, Henry, Coleman, Doctson, Treadwell, Thomas, Dixon, and actually a bunch more. I think I had him about 14th. I actually think his value appreciated a little before Marshall showed up. But he isn't startable now.  And there are a lot of receivers I think can become startable.

I'd rather have a lot of young veteran receivers.  Tyler Lockett, for example.  They seem like real similar guys to me. I'd rather have John Ross.  I don't usually like speed guys, but he's the speediest speed guy we've ever seen.  I'd rather have Kupp or Carlos, if they end up on decent teams, because I view them as similar talents but they may have a faster path to relevance. 

I don't know what pick I'd give for Shepard, because I'm not looking to buy.  I would guess there are more leagues with owners looking to sell Shepard than leagues where people are hot to buy him. 

That may be the case for you, but he consistently went 1.5 or 1.6 in drafts last year.  So, you should understand that you are in the minority in your thinking on him (definitely last year and most likely this year as well). 

Which is fine and I can appreciate that viewpoint as we all have players that we like or don't like that may go against the grain, but it was a strange comment to say "not sure why you'd do this" when I would guess there are enough owners that would move the 1.10 for Shepard.   He currently has a mid 4th round startup ADP.  That is most definitely higher than 1.10 value.  The comment "I wouldn't do this" makes a lot more sense than "not sure why you'd do this".  It just gives an impression that you know a lot more than others which really isn't necessary.

Edited by gianmarco
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Another one: 

Fox context, this was a team I took over and I only had AROD at QB, so I needed some depth (preferably young). So I'm not looknig to start Bortles. This trade was with the Johnson owner and I wanted to address by back-up QB and clean up my roster a bit. Thoughts?

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8 minutes ago, hoffman0001 said:

Another one: 

Fox context, this was a team I took over and I only had AROD at QB, so I needed some depth (preferably young). So I'm not looknig to start Bortles. This trade was with the Johnson owner and I wanted to address by back-up QB and clean up my roster a bit. Thoughts?

I will take the 2.5

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Just now, One More Rep said:

I will take the 2.5

Really? Keep in mind I would have probably just dropped Ellington by the start of the season. I think people are way to low on Bortles. The JAGS have made move for him to discussed and I think they are going to add a top RB via the draft. I think he is a solid top 15 QB. 

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1 minute ago, hoffman0001 said:

Really? Keep in mind I would have probably just dropped Ellington by the start of the season. I think people are way to low on Bortles. The JAGS have made move for him to discussed and I think they are going to add a top RB via the draft. I think he is a solid top 15 QB. 

Bortles may be a top 15 qb but for me the 2.5 is more valuable and especially if he is just your backup 

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10 minutes ago, bostonfred said:

I doubt that holds up after the Marshall signing. Would be interested in seeing how far it falls. 

It'll fall, but I don't think it'll fall that much.  I agree, it'll be interesting to see what happens.  Either way, it would have to fall A LOT to drop below where the 1.10 likely goes in startups.

Let's keep in mind that Marshall is only getting $5M for this year and has no guaranteed money in 2018 (and it's only a 2 yr contract).  He got paid less than Wheaton, Garcon, Stills, Britt, and Woods did and is getting the same this year as Torrey Smith.  In other words, this isn't an expensive deal and I don't even think it's fair to assume yet he's even the #2 WR there.

In other words, from a dynasty standpoint, the addition of Marshall is a small blip on the value of a 24 yr old dynasty WR.  Again, for the same reason D. Henry isn't and shouldn't be discounted much just because D. Murray is coming back, it shouldn't change his value that much (even though we'll see if it does). 

ETA -- Here's one last tidbit on Shepard and then I'll leave it alone so we don't turn this into a SS thread.

Quote

With Giants receivers Victor Cruz and Odell Beckham Jr. primarily lining up out wide, Sterling Shepard found more of a home in the slot as he was aligned there on 83.0 percent of his plays during the regular season, with only 15.0 percent out wide. Shepard was targeted 93 times from the slot, hauling in 60 of them, which put him at the 4th most receptions from the slot among wide receivers this regular season. Additionally, his 8 touchdowns from the slot were the most of any receiver in the league.

 

Edited by gianmarco
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10 minutes ago, gianmarco said:

It'll fall, but I don't think it'll fall that much.  I agree, it'll be interesting to see what happens.  Either way, it would have to fall A LOT to drop below where the 1.10 likely goes in startups.

Let's keep in mind that Marshall is only getting $5M for this year and has no guaranteed money in 2018 (and it's only a 2 yr contract).  He got paid less than Wheaton, Garcon, Stills, Britt, and Woods did and is getting the same this year as Torrey Smith.  In other words, this isn't an expensive deal and I don't even think it's fair to assume yet he's even the #2 WR there.

In other words, from a dynasty standpoint, the addition of Marshall is a small blip on the value of a 24 yr old dynasty WR.  Again, for the same reason D. Henry isn't and shouldn't be discounted much just because D. Murray is coming back, it shouldn't change his value that much (even though we'll see if it does). 

ETA -- Here's one last tidbit on Shepard and then I'll leave it alone so we don't turn this into a SS thread.

 

A lot of people don't think that TD rate for the number of targets is sustainable especially with a red zone thread like Marshall. Thats where most of his value came from last season. It would be impossible for me to take him over Fournette, Cook, Williams, Davis, Ross, Mixon or McCaffrey. That immediately puts him at #8 in this class. Add in a few players going to premium spots and 1.10 might be a nice deal for him. If he has another 60 catch 600 yard season, his value is gonna take a hit. And with Marshall signed, that seems more likely than not.

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49 minutes ago, hoffman0001 said:

How about this: 

Form some context this was a team I just took over and my main goal was to clean up my roster. None of these players are expected to start. I don't have Elliot but traded with the guy who did. Maclin would have been my #4 WR in a start 3-4 league. I have some younger more explosive players to replace him. This is all about upside for me and having a young quality WR for the future, and getting some value while cleaning up the roster. 

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