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****OFFICIAL DYNASTY TRADES**** (26 Viewers)

12 team varied PPR league with RB's getting .75 PPR.

Gave: 2018#2

Got: Prosise and Rawls

Already had Lacy on a team where RB was problem area last season and while not really huge on any one RB on SEA I would hope owning the backfield can net me a usable RB most weeks.

 
12 team varied PPR league with RB's getting .75 PPR.

Gave: 2018#2

Got: Prosise and Rawls

Already had Lacy on a team where RB was problem area last season and while not really huge on any one RB on SEA I would hope owning the backfield can net me a usable RB most weeks.
It's good value but seems like only thing you'll be getting is a headache figuring out who to start each week.

 
Its a 12 team IDP league...DEEP rosters 50+....1 PPR ..start 1 QB/2 RB/2WR/1Flex/1TE/1 K and  DL/2 LB/2 DB/2 Flex

A.Brown wr pitt

For

A.Robinson wr Jax

T.Hill wr KC

K.Neal DB ATL

rookie pick #22

 
Its a 12 team IDP league...DEEP rosters 50+....1 PPR ..start 1 QB/2 RB/2WR/1Flex/1TE/1 K and  DL/2 LB/2 DB/2 Flex

A.Brown wr pitt

For

A.Robinson wr Jax

T.Hill wr KC

K.Neal DB ATL

rookie pick #22
Didn't you post this a few hours ago? Have some patience.

NM: garlicduck pointed out you were just posting your league requirements.

 
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Just in

20 team dynasty league

I traded.

1.2, 2018 4th (mid 30's-40's)

for 

Sammy Watkins & 1.4

I also own 1.1 1.6 1.7 and 2.1. In a rebuild 

 
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Just in

20 team dynasty league

I traded.

1.2, 2018 4th (mid 30's-40's)

for 

Sammy Watkins & 1.4

I also own 1.1 1.6 1.7 and 2.1. In a rebuild 
Almost Watkins for free!

Is there anyone on this board who would not jump on "Cook for McCaffery and Watkins" or "Corey Davis for Mike Williams and Watkins?"  Because that's basically what 1.2 for 1.4 boils down to.

 
Dealt pick #28 and a 2018 5th for Jeremy Hill and James Laurinitis.  

Hoping JL signs somewhere. 

 
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Almost Watkins for free!

Is there anyone on this board who would not jump on "Cook for McCaffery and Watkins" or "Corey Davis for Mike Williams and Watkins?"  Because that's basically what 1.2 for 1.4 boils down to.
Believe it or not. I wanted Davis at 1.2, but believe he will fall to 4. The guy at 2 is DESPRATE to pair a RB or 2 in this class next to Lamar Miller (he has NOONE else, and wanted one of Cook or Fournette. Seeing I'll most likely take Fournette I would still be happy with 1.2 for Watkins/Davis Watkins/Williams Watkins/Cook Watkins/Whoever at 1.4 

not to mention, load up on this TE class and BPA at my 6,7 and 13 overall. 

Not a bad way to begin rebuild season

 
I think the move is to move down from 1.1/1.2 and acquire proven or younger riskier players if not 100% on draft talent. So it's more a 2 for 1 or 3 for 1, I make sure NONE of those players are just duds.

 
Yep, and there are more counter examples of headaches then there are of success stories.
:yes: it would be a mistake to assume the Seahawks outscore the #2 offense by 15% this year.  They might be a top 10 offense but nothing about this situation or backs should lead someone to believe this becomes foreman / Coleman. 

 
jeaton6 said:
Yep, and there are more counter examples of headaches then there are of success stories.
Sure, which is why those guys are usually available at a discount in both dynasty and redraft.  

The question should be, how steep a discount should it be?  In redraft, you'll probably wait a game or two before feeling safe starting lacy (or rawls)  unless you went zero rb and he's your only choice.  So you have to discount him by the games you won't use him and the odds he won't be good enough to start (including not being good enough to take a lead role but still being in a committee) and his near zero exit value because of he doesn't start, it's probably because he's too fat.  That means you drop him down a lot. But the upside of him becoming the next lynch is huge, which is why these kinds of guys tend to go in the 6th/7th/8th of redraft. 

In dynasty, you drop him down for different reasons.  It's not nearly as big a deal that he might be in a committee, because the upside of 4 years of being a starter is so much higher than the upside of 14 games you'd start him in redraft.  There's a risk that he will have zero exit value, that he will be mired in a committee, that he will not play at all, etc. Those are all real risks. And you're stuck holding them while you wait so there go two roster spots at the start of the season which is when they're most critical for picking up the surprise waiver studs. 

But the upside if one of them does become the rb1 is potentially 4 years of rb1 numbers in a good offense with a stable coach, qb and defense. Thats potentially second or third round startup adp if they hit. 

So the question isn't, are there more cases of committee situations sucking than of them being good, but how much more likely does failure have to be than success for you to not invest a second round pick and two roster spots.  It's like a pot odds calculation in poker - in the long run if you do this a bunch of times you'll probably come out ahead. 

The only time I wouldn't take a gamble like this is if I had a deep roster and shallow roster size and just couldn't consolidate it any more.  But I am constantly looking for ways to add these speculative plays that add immediate depth and some chance at studliness.  These are the kind of plays I make room for. 

 
-OZ- said:
:yes: it would be a mistake to assume the Seahawks outscore the #2 offense by 15% this year.  They might be a top 10 offense but nothing about this situation or backs should lead someone to believe this becomes foreman / Coleman. 
You souls have said the same thing about lunch before he went to Seattle.  Reclamation project, a couple nice seasons but nothing suggesting hall of fame talent. Then he got on those Seattle vitamins.  I'm not saying it will happen, just that the reward is worth the risk of a second rounder. 

 
Sure, which is why those guys are usually available at a discount in both dynasty and redraft.  

The question should be, how steep a discount should it be?  In redraft, you'll probably wait a game or two before feeling safe starting lacy (or rawls)  unless you went zero rb and he's your only choice.  So you have to discount him by the games you won't use him and the odds he won't be good enough to start (including not being good enough to take a lead role but still being in a committee) and his near zero exit value because of he doesn't start, it's probably because he's too fat.  That means you drop him down a lot. But the upside of him becoming the next lynch is huge, which is why these kinds of guys tend to go in the 6th/7th/8th of redraft. 

In dynasty, you drop him down for different reasons.  It's not nearly as big a deal that he might be in a committee, because the upside of 4 years of being a starter is so much higher than the upside of 14 games you'd start him in redraft.  There's a risk that he will have zero exit value, that he will be mired in a committee, that he will not play at all, etc. Those are all real risks. And you're stuck holding them while you wait so there go two roster spots at the start of the season which is when they're most critical for picking up the surprise waiver studs. 

But the upside if one of them does become the rb1 is potentially 4 years of rb1 numbers in a good offense with a stable coach, qb and defense. Thats potentially second or third round startup adp if they hit. 

So the question isn't, are there more cases of committee situations sucking than of them being good, but how much more likely does failure have to be than success for you to not invest a second round pick and two roster spots.  It's like a pot odds calculation in poker - in the long run if you do this a bunch of times you'll probably come out ahead. 

The only time I wouldn't take a gamble like this is if I had a deep roster and shallow roster size and just couldn't consolidate it any more.  But I am constantly looking for ways to add these speculative plays that add immediate depth and some chance at studliness.  These are the kind of plays I make room for. 
This is very well put.

While I mostly agree, it's also worth noting that you're also giving up a speculative, pot odds play in order to play this one though.  In this case it was a 2nd round pick, which in the last two years has netted Jordan Howard and David Johnson at about the same odds that these committee guys have developed into something more.  So in a way it just boils down to preference on which hand you want to play.

 
This is very well put.

While I mostly agree, it's also worth noting that you're also giving up a speculative, pot odds play in order to play this one though.  In this case it was a 2nd round pick, which in the last two years has netted Jordan Howard and David Johnson at about the same odds that these committee guys have developed into something more.  So in a way it just boils down to preference on which hand you want to play.
Yeah I think you can try to quantify that by saying that second round picks tend to succeed at a sub 50% rate and logjams tend to clear at a sub 50%.rate and  that you can take bpa with the pick not just a running back, but that you get lacy and rawls now and that second round picks can always be traded but you might not find a buyer for lacy or rawls if they disappoint this year.  And that owning lacy and rawls means you have a guy you can use this year as depth, so you might not need to keep an injury/bye week guy on your roster, while a second round pick doesn't offer you that.  

You might also think your ability to evaluate talent makes the pick more valuable and Lacy/rawls less valuable since you "know" that neither one is any good. Or you might be like me and think your edge doesn't come from player evaluation but from picking guys whose value could go way up and making good trades and pickups.  There are lots of good ways to get an edge and I don't think anyone is wrong to prefer their way. 

 
You souls have said the same thing about lunch before he went to Seattle.  Reclamation project, a couple nice seasons but nothing suggesting hall of fame talent. Then he got on those Seattle vitamins.  I'm not saying it will happen, just that the reward is worth the risk of a second rounder. 
I don't think I did say that but it's besides the point.  

If you want the backfield because you think one will become a workhorse and you want insurance, cool. But don't expect the hawks to become the best offense in the league next year. 

 
Zealots PPR 

Gave: 2018 1st (likely late), 2.08, Kenny Stills

Got: Derek Carr

I'm a contender and didn't want to roll with Blake Bortles and Alex Smith.

May have overpaid a bit but QBs are hard to value. 
I disagree with the consensus that say that QBs are not valuable in any leagues less than 16 teams. I think it is well worth finding a steady guy to plug in each week versus carrying multiple question marks. I would pay that in my 12 team league and be excited about it. We have short rosters (18) so it is tough to carry multiple guys to try to solve the position.

 
Zealots PPR 

#1

Gave: 2018 1st (likely late), 2.08, Kenny Stills

Got: Derek Carr

#2

Gave: Tyreek Hill, Tyler Eifert, 1.09

Got: Antonio Brown
Between these two trades I feel like I've won the off-season.  Bring on September! :pickle:

Edit: I forgot to post #3 where I gave a 4th and some FA bidding dollars I didn't need in exchange for DeSean Jackson. Winning, duh!

 
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Non-PPR

Pick 9

for

Picks 12, 28, 29, 2018 4th.  Devontae Booker
I get both sides.  9 gets you one of kamara, foreman, Juju, ross or Howard.  12 doesn't unless someone slips.  I'm guessing the guy trading for 9 is set at tight end and doesn't want njoku/Engram or a lower tier back. The guy moving down is going to get a good player and gets a lot of nice lottery tickets. I think they got a decent deal to move down especially if they like Engram and njoku. Win win. 

 
Zealots PPR 

Gave: 2018 1st (likely late), 2.08, Kenny Stills

Got: Derek Carr

I'm a contender and didn't want to roll with Blake Bortles and Alex Smith.

May have overpaid a bit but QBs are hard to value. 
I'd trade that for carr easily if I needed a QB. but in general QB is the hardest offensive position to value.  I try to pick them up when cheap but carr is a top 5(ish) dynasty qb so not likely to be cheaper than this. 

Between these two trades I feel like I've won the off-season.  Bring on September! :pickle:
As much as I like hill, you're trade for Antonio is very good for you. 

 
Dynasty 12 team PPR

Team A gives: 1.01, 4.06

Team B gives: 1.04, 2.01, Hunter Henry
1.04 side.  In PPR I think the top 5 are the tier, 2.01 is no slouch, and Henry more than pays for the loss of choice for me.  So much so I won't even put out my defacto "should have waited the pick will get more valuable" mantra down.  That owner is clearly after someone, and if that someone goes to PIT or MIA that deal might evaporate.

 
12 PPR QB, 2-3 RB, 3-4 WR, 1-2 TE

Gave: 2018 1-4th rd picks, Keith Marshall, Travis Benjamin

Got: Crowell, Jordy

 
I'm the one giving up the 1.04. My team is pretty ####ty still, with my only two great players being Zeke and Mike Evans. I've got a fairly stocked TE group, but Henry was probably my prize piece (though I'm not as high on him as the consensus probably is). Personally, I really like Fournette, so that's probably the target at 1.01 (but we'll see how the draft shakes out). I'm not very high on McCaffrey / Davis unless they end up in stellar situations, and Cook/Mixon have their problems/risks as well. I would have probably drafted a TE with that 2.01, so I didn't mind giving it up that much. Of course, I might also just end up moving the pick again if things heat up post-draft and someone gets a huge boner for Fournette or something. 

 
A couple of recent ones...

12 team, ppr

Gave: Ajayi, DT, Witten, Lynch, and Aiken

Got: Gronk, Sanders, M Lee, and J Gordon

and 

Gave: Cobb, likely mid 2nd (adjusted for depleted devy) value

Got: JuJu

My team wasn't like to compete this year, so I made some moves with a more long term outlook. I'll likely try and trade Sanders and Gronk in season when their value increases

12 team, ppr

Gave: Ty Mont

Got: Dixon

 
Dynasty 12 team PPR

Team A gives: 1.01, 4.06

Team B gives: 1.04, 2.01, Hunter Henry
+1 to the 1.04 side here. I don't think that would be the case last year when Zeke ended up in the dream situation. If Fournette lands with the Raiders, or Caff goes to Indy, I might like 1.01 more

 
I'm the one giving up the 1.04. My team is pretty ####ty still, with my only two great players being Zeke and Mike Evans. I've got a fairly stocked TE group, but Henry was probably my prize piece (though I'm not as high on him as the consensus probably is). Personally, I really like Fournette, so that's probably the target at 1.01 (but we'll see how the draft shakes out). I'm not very high on McCaffrey / Davis unless they end up in stellar situations, and Cook/Mixon have their problems/risks as well. I would have probably drafted a TE with that 2.01, so I didn't mind giving it up that much. Of course, I might also just end up moving the pick again if things heat up post-draft and someone gets a huge boner for Fournette or something. 
I definitely would have held in that case.

 
I definitely would have held in that case.
I can see the reasoning for holding on to the 1.04+, but over and over again across leagues I've tried massing mid/late firsts and trying to hit on some value, but the success is so scattershot with that method that I'm getting a bit sick of it. If I don't end up moving the pick again, I'd really like to get the obviously best talent/situation match instead of taking what's left at 1.04. 

 
Almost Watkins for free!

Is there anyone on this board who would not jump on "Cook for McCaffery and Watkins" or "Corey Davis for Mike Williams and Watkins?"  Because that's basically what 1.2 for 1.4 boils down to.
I might not jump.  Watkins has been injury prone and let's say that I really like two guys.  I'm guaranteed to land them with the 1.1 and 1.2.   Plus the guy holds several other high picks.   That's a huge talent infusion in dynasty.  And I might even have good WR depth so that Watkins isn't a must have.  So, no, I don't jump.  I might change my mind later as the NFL draft unfolds and things get clearer.  But for the time being, I could stand pat.

 
12 team, ppr

Gave: Lacy, 3.04

Got: Treadwell

I'm pretty happy about this one. I like Treadwell more than most even after a disaster rookie yr. 

 
12 team, ppr

Gave: Lacy, 3.04

Got: Treadwell

I'm pretty happy about this one. I like Treadwell more than most even after a disaster rookie yr. 
I love these types of trades. Capitalizing on a good situation for a player headed to a crowded backfield for a very young player who was in discussion as a top two rookie pick last year. You may not win but a great roll of the dice on a player with a lot of upside.

 
I get both sides.  9 gets you one of kamara, foreman, Juju, ross or Howard.  12 doesn't unless someone slips.  I'm guessing the guy trading for 9 is set at tight end and doesn't want njoku/Engram or a lower tier back. The guy moving down is going to get a good player and gets a lot of nice lottery tickets. I think they got a decent deal to move down especially if they like Engram and njoku. Win win. 
You almost nailed it!  I traded up for the 9 pick.  The main reason was because I could use a top TE and the teams picking 10 and 11 need TEs.  Also, I had lots of late picks and limited roster space. So instead of drafting 2 more people I'd have to cut in the end, I jumped up to presumably grab whichever TE I fancy instead of whichever one falls to me.

That said, if Kamara, Juju, Ross, or Foreman go to perfect situations in the NFL draft. I could end up taking one of them at 9 instead of my original plan.  I locked up picks 1, 4, 5, 6, and 9.

 

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