-OZ-
Footballguy
Seems fair assuming the guy getting brees is a strong contender but I'm not trading MM and Decker for brees and Tate where I own both Titans. (And I'm a strong contender)
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****OFFICIAL DYNASTY TRADES**** (13 Viewers)
- Thread starter Gottabesweet
- Start date
Thanks.
Have you tried trading for one of the three stud rbs this offseason? OBJ alone isn't getting it done.
And you were/are correct. The AC advice, and what you said, was pretty much spot on with my thinking initially. The stark contrast of opinions confirms my thoughts that the Shark Pool, and this thread in particular, is a bit of an echo chamber
Hankmoody
Footballguy
I would move Bell or DJ for OBJ in a flash. Any format. Elliott is pretty much a toss-up. And there are more than three stud RB's. It's ok to admit you got the best end of the trade by far.
How do 6 opinions agreeing with you vs. 8 disagreeing indicate an echo chamber, aside from it fitting your narrative?
Several adp sites have the top 3 rbs ahead of the top wrs, which implies that you'd have to add something to OBJ to get that done. I doubt I could get one of those RBs in my primary leagues for OBJ.
(Start 2 rb plus flex, non-ppr scoring. Lineup needs create positional scarcity at RB, no ppr makes RBs competitive with WRs in weekly scoring. Owners in my leagues tend to zealously horde RBs.)
Conclusion: those with wildly different opinions on the trade are probably just looking at it from different presumed league styles.
You are in the minority then. DJ, Bell, and Zeke all carry more value than any WR in the ~6 leagues I play in (0.5-1.0 PPR, 12-16 teams, mostly standard lineup reqs)
So in one thread we have a unanimous consensus that A>B, and in another thread we have a unanimous consensus that B>A. How are those threads not perfect examples of echo chambers?
-OZ-
Footballguy
Totally league, starting lineup dependant. In my main league the top receivers carry more value, but we start 1-2 rb, 3-5 wr.
And in that format those values are probably correct. But the OP in which I originally posted the trade I did say "standard lineups", which is what values should be based on.
steelers1080
Footballguy
Non-PPR
Kevin White + James Conner
for
Samaje Perine
Kevin White + James Conner
for
Samaje Perine
kutta
Footballguy
-OZ-
Footballguy
Ray Barboni
Footballguy
Hung up on White is probably the better way to put it ...
theres no way anyone should be "big" on Kevin White at this point.
Sure, I'd stash him on my roster for free - but if I could package him and a potential backup RB? For Perine?
All day Perine. Easy.
jeaton6
Footballguy
Yes I have and I was able to get Bell and Zeke for less than OBJ. That said I wouldn't ever trade Evans or OBJ straight up for a stud RB....not my style.
jeaton6
Footballguy
0.5 PPR and/or 16 team And must start 2 RB I could possibly buy into this but 1 PPR, 12 Team not a chance. In terms of value this year yes I'll agree but in terms of long term value no. DJ/Bell probably have 3 more years whereas OBJ and Evans could easily have 10+. Remaining lifetime VbD will likely dwarf the Stud RBs.
-OZ-
Footballguy
You can call it hung up, but hopeful would be a better term.
Along with not so much on Perine. That said Perine is worth more than White/Connor.
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One More Rep
Footballguy
garlicduck
Footballguy
-OZ-
Footballguy
Gordon and Hopkins but if you want the #1 pick this is probably about as good a deal as you'll get.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Which running back would you rather have
Fournette
Mccaffrey
Mixon
Cook
Gordon
I don't think the slam dunk answer is Gordon. Forget start up adp, if we had a simple poll of who is YOUR favorite from this group, do you think Gordon gets over 50% of votes?
So this trade comes down to would you rather have, 1.12 and a playoff future first or Hopkins. And again, that chimes down to preference. In 4 years Hopkins has 317 receptions for 4487 yards and 23 touchdowns. That's 79/1122/5.7, which is basically the same as his second best season in that time (76/1210/6). Last season he had just 78/954/4.
When you give two firsts for him it's because you're hoping for an encore of his monster 111/1521/11 season in 2015, but that looks like a massive outlier. He had 192 targets that year. For comparison, Mike Evans led the league in 2016 with 171 targets. Can he get there again? Doubtful. He was their only real weapon that year especially once Foster missed over half of the season. They've since added Will fuller and Braxton Miller, Lamar Miller, don'ta foreman and had cj fiedorowicz emerge.
So its unlikely he'll get 192 targets again. 111 receptions on 192 targets is just a 57.8% catch rate. Not great. He caught 78 of 151 last year - 51.6%. He's never broken 60%. You really need him to be up around 160 targets to get 90 receptions again - which is no lock.
He averages 14 yards a catch, which is nice if he's getting a huge number of catches, but 80 catches at 14 yards a catch is 1120 yards. Not bad but not really worth two firsts. And in 4 seasons he has 4, 11, 6 and 2 touchdowns. Even if you assume his best case, 11 touchdowns in 111 catches rate from 2015, you're probably looking at closer to 80/1120/8 with maybe 90/1260/9 upside.
And that's if you expect him to have upside. The good news is he's young - he just turned 25 this month. The bad news is the franchise just gave up two first round picks to take Watson. Maybe they're really sure he's the guy, but just last year they were really sure Brock was the guy and gave him a contact so big they had to give a second round pick just to get rid of him. I'm not super confident in their ability to pick or develop quarterbacks. In a year when no quarterback went number one overall - usually not a good sign, especially if the team with 1.1 needs one - and when the consensus was that none of these guys was NFL ready, they gave up enough to get Watson that they're unlikely to take another qb for 3+ years.
So I get that Hopkins had his best season with a mediocre Hoyer and that he had a 1500 yard season at age 23. But you're probably more realistic hoping for an 80/1120/8 guy going forward
It's he worth more than two late firsts? Sure, on name value alone you can probably get more than that in most leagues. But that, plus the chance to trade Gordon for a guy you like better, is a decent deal.
Fournette
Mccaffrey
Mixon
Cook
Gordon
I don't think the slam dunk answer is Gordon. Forget start up adp, if we had a simple poll of who is YOUR favorite from this group, do you think Gordon gets over 50% of votes?
So this trade comes down to would you rather have, 1.12 and a playoff future first or Hopkins. And again, that chimes down to preference. In 4 years Hopkins has 317 receptions for 4487 yards and 23 touchdowns. That's 79/1122/5.7, which is basically the same as his second best season in that time (76/1210/6). Last season he had just 78/954/4.
When you give two firsts for him it's because you're hoping for an encore of his monster 111/1521/11 season in 2015, but that looks like a massive outlier. He had 192 targets that year. For comparison, Mike Evans led the league in 2016 with 171 targets. Can he get there again? Doubtful. He was their only real weapon that year especially once Foster missed over half of the season. They've since added Will fuller and Braxton Miller, Lamar Miller, don'ta foreman and had cj fiedorowicz emerge.
So its unlikely he'll get 192 targets again. 111 receptions on 192 targets is just a 57.8% catch rate. Not great. He caught 78 of 151 last year - 51.6%. He's never broken 60%. You really need him to be up around 160 targets to get 90 receptions again - which is no lock.
He averages 14 yards a catch, which is nice if he's getting a huge number of catches, but 80 catches at 14 yards a catch is 1120 yards. Not bad but not really worth two firsts. And in 4 seasons he has 4, 11, 6 and 2 touchdowns. Even if you assume his best case, 11 touchdowns in 111 catches rate from 2015, you're probably looking at closer to 80/1120/8 with maybe 90/1260/9 upside.
And that's if you expect him to have upside. The good news is he's young - he just turned 25 this month. The bad news is the franchise just gave up two first round picks to take Watson. Maybe they're really sure he's the guy, but just last year they were really sure Brock was the guy and gave him a contact so big they had to give a second round pick just to get rid of him. I'm not super confident in their ability to pick or develop quarterbacks. In a year when no quarterback went number one overall - usually not a good sign, especially if the team with 1.1 needs one - and when the consensus was that none of these guys was NFL ready, they gave up enough to get Watson that they're unlikely to take another qb for 3+ years.
So I get that Hopkins had his best season with a mediocre Hoyer and that he had a 1500 yard season at age 23. But you're probably more realistic hoping for an 80/1120/8 guy going forward
It's he worth more than two late firsts? Sure, on name value alone you can probably get more than that in most leagues. But that, plus the chance to trade Gordon for a guy you like better, is a decent deal.
JackReacher
Footballguy
Nice post Fred. Think this is pretty fair. As someone who is not as high on Gordon or Hopkins, I would take the picks.
jeaton6
Footballguy
No matter how you frame it the value is on the players side by a lot. Even if you really don't like the players there is no reason to tell your league mates as much. He should have been able to do much much better.
-OZ-
Footballguy
It's a fine deal but I'd bet the two veterans do better than the three rookies. I look at it slightly differently because I'm probably talking Davis #1 (yeah I'm a titans Homer). So it's hopkins > Davis and then Gordon vs two late 1sts. I'm not big on Gordon but he's a top 10 back. That's worth more than hunt/kamara/perine and a late 18 1st.
But the trade isn't horrible, most trades involving the 1.01 are going to be very expensive and there's literally one team you can trade with to get it.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Depends why the made the trade. If he's just looking to trade away hop and Gordon, sure. I'm assuming he wanted the top pick. You're just (probably) not doing better if you want that pick.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Hopkins and Gordon easily no matter my roster, and have never even been that high on Gordon.
jeaton6
Footballguy
No in general you are doing better. The top pick really has very little incremental value (on average) relative to the other 4. In particular given all the positive news on the big 4 thus far (and frankly Cook could be thrown in there as well) the gap has closed even further vs my May rookie drafts when the 1.1 wasn't able to garner significantly more value than 1.2-1.4.
CabinFever
Footballguy
12 team PPR. Hope my team is good enough to warrant getting older but trying to win this year.
Gave: Ertz, Vereen, 3rd in 2018
Got: Edelman, Gore, 2nd in 2018
Gave: Ertz, Vereen, 3rd in 2018
Got: Edelman, Gore, 2nd in 2018
-OZ-
Footballguy
One More Rep
Footballguy
Pick for me pretty handilymzkp54 said:
One More Rep
Footballguy
Ertz but closeCabinFever said:
JPeso
Footballguy
-OZ-
Footballguy
I might underestimate Edelman this year but I think cooks becomes the top wr and if gronk stays healthy, then there's hogan and Mitchell, not to mention the backs. I'm not seeing enough to go around for Edelman to be a top 25 again. How do you see the pats offense breaking down?
jeaton6
Footballguy
I agree Cooks will likely be the top WR but I would not expect Hogan/Mitchell to combine for more than 800 yards or so. I expect offense to be about here, assuming everyone healthy which I honestly don't expect Gronk to be the whole year.
Cooks: 90/1250 9
Edelman: 85/950 7
Hogan: 35/500 4
All other WRs: 50/550 2
Gronk: 70/950 11
All other TEs: 15/200 1
All RBs: 85/600 4
About 5000 Yards and 38 TDs
TDs could be low honestly based on what we've seen recently but I have a hard time projecting 40+ TDs for any QB.
-OZ-
Footballguy
seems reasonable although I don't know that I'd count on JE tying his career high for TDs. You may be right that he's a top 25, but there are a lot of mouths to feed.
One More Rep
Footballguy
-OZ-
Footballguy
Zyphros
Footballguy
All comes down to your board probably. Personally I have Foreman ahead of Kamara alone, and I think Hill is a nice buy low for 2018. But I can see why people might prefer Kamara.
xpiredcoupon
Footballguy
I was team getting Kamara and had a few reasons.
Main one is I like Kamara way more than Foreman in general. I have Kamara as my 10th ranked rookie and Foreman I just took because he was BPA at position I needed another player at pick 2.9 but had passed him earlier at 2.4 so not someone I was crazy about getting. Another minor reason is my top two RB's are Gurley and Fournette and I wanted more of a high volume receiving RB.
Other main reason was roster space. Lot of time left of course but right now I was looking at 3 tough cuts just to get down to in-season roster and worry about trimming 4 more later. I agree that Hill is a nice buy low right now and I like Kupp but reality is not sure either would have stuck on my roster.
The team I traded with prefers Kamara to Foreman but is very high on Foreman and has him as a top 12 rookie and adding in Hill with Mixon and Kupp might make this a better deal for him than for me but for me it boiled down to moving 3 pieces I was ok on but not huge for a player I'm extremely high to the point of being huge. In a non-TE premium league I'd have had Kamara as my 7th ranked player.
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Were those Christian McCaffrey's mortal nemesis trading the picks away?
I thought the first trade was about as cheap as I've seen to move up into the top 3 of this year's draft. Then I saw that abortion of a 2nd trade.
