I'm predicting less next season but I'd sure not be shocked and doubt most would if Mike Williams got 100 targets and turned that into something 65/900/8. I know you are not predicting that but would that really be shocking to you? That's all it takes, all it took last year, to put you in top 24 PPG WR's in PPR. We are in an era when 70/1000/8 puts you in top 15 range. The bar is low.
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Keep in mind last year was a bit weird. WR24 the past 4 years has been (2017->2014) 12.5, 13.2, 15.1, and 13.8 ppg. So chances are, 65/900/8 won't result in top 24 in 2018. Additionally, he'd be Rivers' first WR2 to ever get 100 targets. The 65% catch rate , 13.8 ypr, and 1 TD per 8 rec all seem on the generous side. I mean, I get what you're saying... each one of those aspects (targets, catch rate, ypr, and TDs) is not a huge stretch individually. However, for all of them to break right would be shocking, at least to me. Kind of like flipping a coin. If I called it right once, sure. Twice, ok. But the odds are really slim I'm going to call it right four times in a row. And the biggest assumption that we're not even addressing is that he's actually good enough to warrant those targets to begin with. I know a lot of people took him top 5 in rookie drafts, but I was never interested in him at that price. I'll hide before I say this, but at the moment, I'm about as interested in MW as I am Treadwell (who is actually younger).
Concept Coop
Footballguy
You don't like Mike Williams as a prospect, which is reasonable - you're not alone there, to say the least. The Treadwell comp is nothing but hyperbole and your Rivers WR2 thing is confirmation bias. You'll gladly talk up Shepard and other 2nd options you like. But when it's a prospect you don't like, it's a massive hurdle. If he's the talent they thought he was when they drafted him, he'll produce.Keep in mind last year was a bit weird. WR24 the past 4 years has been (2017->2014) 12.5, 13.2, 15.1, and 13.8 ppg. So chances are, 65/900/8 won't result in top 24 in 2018. Additionally, he'd be Rivers' first WR2 to ever get 100 targets. The 65% catch rate , 13.8 ypr, and 1 TD per 8 rec all seem on the generous side. I mean, I get what you're saying... each one of those aspects (targets, catch rate, ypr, and TDs) is not a huge stretch individually. However, for all of them to break right would be shocking, at least to me. Kind of like flipping a coin. If I called it right once, sure. Twice, ok. But the odds are really slim I'm going to call it right four times in a row. And the biggest assumption that we're not even addressing is that he's actually good enough to warrant those targets to begin with. I know a lot of people took him top 5 in rookie drafts, but I was never interested in him at that price. I'll hide before I say this, but at the moment, I'm about as interested in MW as I am Treadwell (who is actually younger).
Just in the last few years:
Cooper/Crabtree, Tate/Jones, Jordy/Adams (Cobb), Thielen/Diggs, Thomas/Cooks, Brown/Smith-Schuster, Woods/Kupp, Thomas/Sanders, Robinson/Hurns, Fitz/Brown, Marshall/Decker, Garcon/Jackson...
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I like MW at his current value but I think his point is fair here and is one I hadn't really considered until he mentioned it. FF owners have been chasing Rivers' #2 WR for his whole career and it's never paid off for more than WR3 or WR4 numbers. There are plenty of pairs of FF receivers that are good but Rivers has never spread the targets around that way. That's not to say MW won't be better than all his prior #2 receivers and earn more targets, but I think it's a fair point to consider.
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Honestly, I don't think it is confirmation bias. I liked Tyrell ok as a cheap flyer once MW was known to be out for an extended period of time (was still wary of Benjamin, though, and MW's impending return). Luckily I didn't land him anywhere, but I wanted to like the WR2 on the Chargers. But it just didn't happen last year and it hasn't happened before. So it's really more of a Rivers thing than confirmation bias or a WR2 thing.
I'm not trying to say there's no such thing as two top 24 WRs. It happens maybe 3-5 times per year. I don't feel like there are a lot of 2nd options I talk up as top 24 options, but you're right that I like Shepard (don't love him, but I like him). FWIW, I don't feel very confident projecting top 24 numbers for him, either. In fact, I'd probably bet against it. I just feel like he showed some talent in his first two years. Playing in that OBJ shadow with a mediocre at best Eli makes him a WR3 in my eyes, but preferably a WR3 played in the WR4 or flex spot. All of thsoe guys you listed had 100+ targets, though. Wait, one exception - Juju. Kupp is close, but he wasn't top 24 ppg and he was actually on a 100 rec pace if he had played week 17.
That being said, I realize it's me saying he's a longshot to put up WR2 ppg numbers and you are only expecting WR3-4 numbers in the short term. We seem to agree on that, yet you seem to be disagreeing in the quoted reply which is why I am defending my stance against the confirmation bias claim.
As for Treadwell, not hyperbole. I own him nowhere and am in no rush to acquire him (his value will only drop as he rots on the bench), but the dude is only 22 and I'm not writing off his talent just yet. But I know everyone else has so I can see how that would come off as hyperbole. I should've realized that before I used the comp.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Is it really? I'd call it a distraction at best. What is the thesis here? That Rivers only targets 2 weapons when one is a TE? That Malcolm Floyd would have received 100 targets with a different QB? That Rivers can't go through his progressions?
Concept Coop
Footballguy
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
As an ex-QB I can say that there is certainly something to QBs preferring to throw to certain areas of the field (more towards the middle towards more outside, more towards one side of the field, etc). In fact I was exactly that way as a QB (at a much lower level obviously, but I don't see any reason why professional QBs couldn't have preferences like this as well). I liked throwing to the slot (either side) and the wide left side of the field. I hated throwing out wide to the right. Our WR2 was comprable to our WR1 but I just didn't look his way very often.
Aaron Rodgers has usually had multiple WRs put up good fantasy numbers but rarely gotten the most out of his TEs (several of which were better fantasy options elsewhere, with worse QBs) or had a running back with a lot of catches. Meanwhile Rivers has mostly been the opposite. Personnel certainly plays some part but we're talking about 25 years of data between the two of them.
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I haven't really dug into the numbers, but to me it feels like Rivers (1) feeds his WR1, (2) throws to the RB a lot, and (3) spreads the ball around between the WR2, WR3, and tight ends.
So no, I think he goes through his progressions pretty well. He hits his WR1 when they're open. He utilizes the RB very well. He's a very good QB. I just don't expect 100 targets for MW unless he's really good.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
This season, at the very least, that doesn't appear to be the case with Rivers (below). It's worth pointing out that Allen is a Z and Jackson played the X - yet were both Rivers' top targets. Two very different players.
https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/player/philip-rivers/RIV651634/2017
Concept Coop
Footballguy
One More Rep
Footballguy
Zyphros
Footballguy
I can't seem to even give Foreman away when I need the roster space. Nobody seems to be interested, so this is the pick all day long for me. What did he do in your league to warrant a high pick upgrade over whatever pick he was taken as a rookie?
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Here is where playing off rotoworld pays off. They have a blurb of speculation from the local beat writer about how they may move on from Miller, and foreman may be the starter. That’s when you strike with a guy whose value may not be great with most of the community.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
One More Rep
Footballguy
TheBottomLine
Footballguy
JPeso
Footballguy
Zyphros
Footballguy
That warrants a late 1st value? Well if I had known that I'd be the king of dynasty.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I own Foreman in all my leagues (was very high on him before the injury) and several offers rolled in this morning (future 2nd from a contender type deals) so maybe there's something to the rotoworld effect.
The injury is just such a shame. I think he'd have Derrick Henry value right now without it.
The injury is just such a shame. I think he'd have Derrick Henry value right now without it.
Not a Jones guy but I think Perine will be close to worthless and the late picks don't get it done so in this case I'd rather take Jones.
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ghostguy123
Footballguy
three 2nds?? Is perine worth close to a 2nd? I don't think a pick in the mid 3rd is a 2nd. I see one 2nd, a 3rd, and a crappy player.
Warhogs
Footballguy
TheBottomLine
Footballguy
Not involved. 10-team PPR Best Ball
Melvin Gordon, Chris Godwin
for
LeSean McCoy, Elijah Mcguire, Adam Thielen, Zay Jones.
Melvin Gordon, Chris Godwin
for
LeSean McCoy, Elijah Mcguire, Adam Thielen, Zay Jones.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Sorry trade thread peeps, got to go long on response.Keep in mind last year was a bit weird. WR24 the past 4 years has been (2017->2014) 12.5, 13.2, 15.1, and 13.8 ppg. So chances are, 65/900/8 won't result in top 24 in 2018. Additionally, he'd be Rivers' first WR2 to ever get 100 targets. The 65% catch rate , 13.8 ypr, and 1 TD per 8 rec all seem on the generous side. I mean, I get what you're saying... each one of those aspects (targets, catch rate, ypr, and TDs) is not a huge stretch individually. However, for all of them to break right would be shocking, at least to me. Kind of like flipping a coin. If I called it right once, sure. Twice, ok. But the odds are really slim I'm going to call it right four times in a row. And the biggest assumption that we're not even addressing is that he's actually good enough to warrant those targets to begin with. I know a lot of people took him top 5 in rookie drafts, but I was never interested in him at that price. I'll hide before I say this, but at the moment, I'm about as interested in MW as I am Treadwell (who is actually younger).
I think you are looking at the Chargers receivers all wrong under Rivers and focusing to much on how he has historically used a largely mediocre group of WR2's on an offense that has heavily used the RB and the TE in the passing game. It's the WR's in total he's not historically used a ton.
I actually recall making this argument last off season, that the Chargers were not a good spot for WR's for fantasy because they had not historically targeted an individual or the group heavily. I remember this because someone said I was making up stuff, arguing just to argue and I think they blocked me. But it's the whole WR's he has historically not heavily targeted until last year.
Some stats and comments:
* Since Rivers entered the league the Chargers have attempted the second fewest passes to WR's in the NFL. Second to last and it makes sense because they have heavily used the RB and TE.
*Since Rivers has entered the league he the top targeted WR on the team averages 102 targets and the #2 averages 70. Those numbers were 97/70 entering this last season but for first time ever he heavily targeted a WR all season.
*Last season was the only season of Rivers career the WR2 in targets was not within 60% of the WR1 targets. The numbers heavily suggest that during his entire career he's not heavily targeted his WR1 over his WR2, all until last year.
*Allen got 159 targets last year but his previous high was 121. Injuries played a role in this but 121 is a pretty small career high. Tyrell Williams actually has third most targeted WR season of Rivers career with 119.
So what we got is indisputable evidence that Rivers has historically not thrown to his WR's very often, not targeted his WR1 over his WR2 and and until last year he averaged just over 70% of the amount of targets to his WR2 as to his WR1 and now it's just under 70% but still close. That was his history until last season.
Injuries play a role in this discussion. Allen would have likely had at least one more 140+ type target season and gave up some ground in general to WR2 in targets due to injuries. But by that same token the WR2 for a chunk of Rivers career was Malcolm Floyd and Malcolm missed a lot of games which brings down that WR2 target load.
That is the historical outlook but things have been changing and not just with Allen being the only WR to crack the 120 target barrier. You see things changing when an UDFA in Tyrell is pressed into a bigger role and ends up getting what at the time was the second most targets for a WR under Rivers. WR's are taking on a bigger role in this offense and while we are using 100 targets as some kind of goal in last few years #2 or #3 options in Floyd, Royal and Inman have exceeded 90 targets.
Now you got last year. Last year the anomaly off Rivers career, only year the disparity between the WR1 and WR2 was not within 60%. The San Diego Chargers just used pick 7 on Mike Williams. I don't know what this is telling you but it's telling me that the Chargers used a high pick on a WR because they don't like what they have outside of Allen.
You don't like Mike Williams but I think he's a lot more talented then Floyd, Neenae, Danario Alexander and cast of middling talent that has comprised Rivers #2WR all these seasons so really I don't even get into his WR2 usage over his career because that would be ignoring the talent.
No I don't think those projections for Mike Williams on 100 targets is being generous but here is where I think Mike Williams is actually good and you think he is sub Treadwell.
We spent a lot of time on target projections but it's not about targets for you, it's about fact you don't think Williams is any good. I do and consider his rookie season nothing like Treadwells, nothing at all.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Ditto. Late 2nd and two 3rds. For a guy who was WR11 last year and who's situation should remain pretty steady.
Jones by a ton for me. If he's really this cheap I may need to go shopping.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
I don't some back and forth about a player in the context of the trade, but perhaps it's time to take it to the Mike Williams thread?
Maybe you don't think the 100 targets was generous (it was) but all the others were definitely generous. I will take the under on two out of three of 65% catch rate, 13.8 ypr, and 8 TDs. I suggest you go look at how many WRs actually caught 1 TD per 8 receptions or better. Very few. Similarly, very few WRs have a catch rate over 65%. And of those that do, most of them are guys with YPR below 13.8. As I'm looking at this, I'm genuinely curious if there was a single WR last year that actually met the criteria of 100+ targets, 65% catch rate, 13.8 ypr, and 0.125TD/rec. I'm beginning to think not. And again, even those generous stats you listed wouldn't have placed him in the top 24 ppg in three out of the four past years.
I'm not saying Mike Williams is bad (granted, I don't feel like he'll ever live up to his draft position), but Tyrell Williams and Travis Benjamin have both had at least some pretty solid NFL success. Saying Mike Williams is more talented than a bunch of guys who are off the roster might help make the point that the WR2 on the Chargers could get more targets, but for 2018 Mike Williams is going to have to be significantly better than those two guys on the roster if he's going to get 2/3rds of their targets (69 for Tyrell, 65 for Benjamin, 23 for MW = 157 total).
And I disagree that drafting MW #7 means they don't like what's behind Keenan. As soon as they drafted him it seemed obvious MW was Keenan's replacement if Keenan couldn't stay healthy. This isn't just my opinion - I've seen it written by many analysts. They do have similar games. That's another part of why I don't expect MW to have a big role in 2018. His game is not like Tyrell or Benjamin. Keenan and Henry will handle the middle while those guys stretch the field. Where does that leave MW?
And I don't understand the point of saying Keenan had a previous high of 121 targets. He did that in ~14 games (a pace of ~140) in his 2nd season. The next season he had 89 targets in 7.5 games. The next season he had 7 targets in less than 2 quarters. There's a pretty strong trend there of Rivers targeting his WR1, rather than "indisputable evidence that Rivers has not thrown to his WRs often."
On your final point, I believe it to be a combo. I don't think the targets/opportunity will be there AND I am uncertain of his talent. The combination is what scares me off. If I really thought MW was going to play 90% of the snaps with an active role in the offense, then the uncertainty would not stop me from being interested. But the fact that I didn't like him as a prospect and I don't see how he can get a meaningful target share is what scares me off. But maybe you guys see something I don't. You think he'll be on the field in 2WR sets? Did you guys see something on his rookie film that looked promising?
ETA: sorry Hank. You're right. I didn't see your post when I started my reply.
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12 tm PPR
Gave: Clement, Crowder and Ertz
Got: Drake, Diggs, Fleener
My team now:
Brees, Rivers, Rodgers (trying to trade Brees or Rivers)
Bell, Drake, L.Miller, Powell
Dez, Diggs, T.Hill, Julio, Cobb, D-Jax, Z.Jones
Kelce
I wanted a solid RB after Bell since Miller is likely on his way out. Giving up Ertz was tough but felt like with Kelce, I could afford to do this...
Gave: Clement, Crowder and Ertz
Got: Drake, Diggs, Fleener
My team now:
Brees, Rivers, Rodgers (trying to trade Brees or Rivers)
Bell, Drake, L.Miller, Powell
Dez, Diggs, T.Hill, Julio, Cobb, D-Jax, Z.Jones
Kelce
I wanted a solid RB after Bell since Miller is likely on his way out. Giving up Ertz was tough but felt like with Kelce, I could afford to do this...
One More Rep
Footballguy
One More Rep
Footballguy
Fair, but give me the Gordon side for the hidden gem of two open roster spots. In a 10-teamer, I can likely fill them woth pieces as good or better than McGuire and Zay.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
16 team ppr. Mixon was traded for the 1.09 and 1.10
Ray Barboni
Footballguy
Boston
Footballguy
In a 16 team PPR league that is a solid return...like so many of these deals involving picks it all depends on whether there are a coinciding amount of rookies you like for the picks you are acquiring...I'm not a fan when these deals are done generically...
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Boston
Footballguy
On the flipside the other guy needs to take into account who he will be cutting because they are basically part of the trade...
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Gronk
1.10/2.10
1.10/2.10
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
16 team ppr. Tyreek Hill for Mixon and a 2019 1st (prolly around 1.12-1.16). League does give some points for return yardage. Hill was the #3 scoring WR last season.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I can't fathom why some one would move Fournette for that - even if the 2019 looks like it will be early.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
NE_REVIVAL
Footballguy
Not saying i would do it, but the rational has to be the 4net owner fearing the ankle isn't right and may require surgery at some point. As a 4net owner id b lying if I said i didn't have similar concern. If he gets past the ankle issues this yr the deal looks really really bad, if he doesn't then this time next yr it might not look so bad.
I think that a little more team composition background and reasoning from Fournette's owner could very well provide some additional significant perspective as to why he made the decision to move this 2nd year player for the assorted draft picks that he did. Any further speculation at this point doesn't really have the same impact as hearing from the Fournette's seller.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
JPeso
Footballguy
This morning we dealt Dez/3.1 for McCoy/3.7. I would expect most to not be able to get this value on Dez, but still felt it worth sharing given McCoy's value is clearly on the decline as well. Feeling much better about dealing Freeman for Hill.
Weekly will start Hill/Cooks/Jeffery, McCoy, Gronk/Kelce, one of Drake/Hyde/others.
- QB: Dak, Bortles
- RB: McCoy, Drake, Hyde, Duke, Dion, Crowell
- WR: Cooks, Hill, Jeffery, MBryant
- TE: Kelce, Gronk (1.5 PPR)
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