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****OFFICIAL 2021 OFF- SEASON DYNASTY TRADES****


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Just now, BigTex said:

You think they’ll continue to run RBBC approach?

Tex

That is the Doug Penderson Offense philosophy...  It might not be a 3 headed monster, but Sanders will share touches...  maybe like NOS did with Kamara(70% ~220 touches) /Ingram (30% ~110 touches) ... But Boston Scott will likely be their 3rd RB.  Don't know who will be #2.  Howard might stay....  lots of rookies...  no telling. 

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No, they won't accept

I don't know why so many people are saying that this is a fair return (despite preferring CMC as they should). It isn't. This is a fraction of what it should cost for a guy like CMC, either that or th

It's a bit much to say the trade should be overturned. It's just a bunch of junk for a bunch of junk.

3 minutes ago, Aunt Jemima said:

FFPC

Gave - Derrius Guice

Got - 2020 1.7

I can dig it. Guice has tremendous upside, but it’s to the point where I believe he’s just never going to be able to stay on the field for an extended period of time. Let someone else worry about checking the box score of the Washington game every week to make sure Guice hasn’t been injured again. 

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4 hours ago, JoeJoe88 said:

I can dig it. Guice has tremendous upside, but it’s to the point where I believe he’s just never going to be able to stay on the field for an extended period of time. Let someone else worry about checking the box score of the Washington game every week to make sure Guice hasn’t been injured again. 

I can see this as a reason to Buy Low.  I was looking to target him if such was the case....  but I am not seeing any Guice owners jumping ship.  

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2 minutes ago, Birdie048 said:

I can see this as a reason to Buy Low.  I was looking to target him if such was the case....  but I am not seeing any Guice owners jumping ship.  

We were saying this last year.  He needs to get healthy and stay healthy.  Right now I consider him a bust after two years of injuries. 

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33 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

We were saying this last year.  He needs to get healthy and stay healthy.  Right now I consider him a bust after two years of injuries. 

You don't think a little of that AP magic will slide to Guice?  

He has the ultimate recovery role model to follow.  I think the kid has potential and Rivera will run until he falls apart.  Again....

But I understand your point.  I was hesitant last year.  I declined several offers involving him (based more on the total Wash Off train wreck). 

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3 hours ago, JackReacher said:

Team A (back to back champ) gets David Johnson 

Team B (rebuilding) gets 1.12

He was traded in one of my leagues for 2.9 and 2.10 and the team trading him away is actually a contender. Obviously hard guy to get a read on and I could see both sides of this but I'd take the 1.12 myself, even if I was a contender. Mainly because if I'm going to buy an older player with 12 I got to at least know the older player is still worthwhile and just don't know that with David Johnson right now.  But again I can see both sides.

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1 hour ago, JohnnyU said:

We were saying this last year.  He needs to get healthy and stay healthy.  Right now I consider him a bust after two years of injuries. 

An ACL tear on a non-contact run shouldn't really be held against him - those things happen.

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3 hours ago, Birdie048 said:

I can see this as a reason to Buy Low.  I was looking to target him if such was the case....  but I am not seeing any Guice owners jumping ship.  

Yea 1.07 in a loaded class isn't really buying low. 

And that was ffpc too so the roster spot adds even more value to the side getting the pick. 

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19 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

It's actually the opposite. A non contact acl tear is a much bigger deal than one from contact; it means it's something anatomical in nature, which is unlikely to be corrected during the ACL replacement process. 

 

There was much speculation making the rounds that Guice suffered damage to that ACL in his final season of college and didn't have surgery, which some teams dinged him for on his medicals, contributing to his surprising (at the time) fall. If so, that ACL may not have been in the best shape entering his rookie year. I don't know if this makes it better or worse for his value. 

The MCL sprain he struggled with this season is likely a predictable result of the ACL repair, right? Compensation injuries and whatnot? 

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5 hours ago, ConnSKINS26 said:

 

There was much speculation making the rounds that Guice suffered damage to that ACL in his final season of college and didn't have surgery, which some teams dinged him for on his medicals, contributing to his surprising (at the time) fall. If so, that ACL may not have been in the best shape entering his rookie year. I don't know if this makes it better or worse for his value. 

The MCL sprain he struggled with this season is likely a predictable result of the ACL repair, right? Compensation injuries and whatnot? 

Yes. I'm not very worried about his surgical knee tbh

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6 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

It's actually the opposite. A non contact acl tear is a much bigger deal than one from contact; it means it's something anatomical in nature, which is unlikely to be corrected during the ACL replacement process. 

But players come back from it all the time without future issues and I’m not sure it should lead to a player being labeled “injury prone” when it’s a single occurrence.

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On 1/7/2020 at 10:32 PM, Landro21 said:

10 Team PPR

A: Gallup, Westbrook, 1.02

B: Godwin, 2.02, 3.02

Close for me, but the 1.02 is as high potential as Godwin and I'd gladly take Gallup over the 2.02 and 3.02. I can sure see the risk averse grabbing Godwin and being completely satisfied. A lot may come down to whether you are a strong team in your league and can coast with Godwin as a foundation piece or are in a rebuild and need the chance at a stud plus Gallup to compete.

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On 1/9/2020 at 3:49 PM, JackReacher said:

Team A (back to back champ) gets David Johnson 

Team B (rebuilding) gets 1.12

1.12 easily. Johnson just looked finished even when at full strength down the stretch. There is some chance he returns to a significant role if he weren't as healthy as advertised, but I think almost none that he supplants both Drake and Edmonds into a bell cow role. And age. I'll take the first rounder in a strong RB/WR class who has a good chance of being a long term value.

 

On 1/10/2020 at 5:21 AM, Dr. Dan said:

no, I wouldnt label someone injury prone based on that

That term is too loosely used by people for the wrong injury types. 

I remember when Keenan Allen was considered by many to be injury prone (I recall reading FBGs calling him that too). He broke his collar bone, lacerated a kidney, and tore an acl within 2 years. That's not my definition of injury prone, and it shouldn't be anyone else's. 

Guice will be unfairly labeled as injury prone, even though these 2 other knee issues are extremely likely to be related to his ACL recovery process. ACL recovery is really an 18 month process. They can return to sport at 12 but things arent back to.normal for another 6 months at least. Throw in another surgery for the meniscus and that sets him back further. 

Guice is a great buy because his owner may be panicking and trying to get anything out of him that they can. 

Thanks Doc, for the opinion in line with my (uneducated but enthusiastic) feeling about the future. It wasn't long ago that people were throwing Dalvin to the dogs as 'made of glass.' Guice could still go the Kevin White route, but I think even that was ultimately a confidence and lack of talent issue more than 'injury proneness' as a career killer. I don't think Guise suffers from any lack of confidence or talent. He has already shown clear stretches of elite skills on a team with, at least yet, little competition and great other needs for their draft picks. I think Guice is far more likely to be a stud player than a 1.7, even in this strong class. I'm pretty confidently holding him everywhere. 

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51 minutes ago, jwsbowler said:

I agree... would have looked for more.

I own and have loved Ertz, but with Goedert going nowhere and cracks beginning to show in Ertz' performance (whether from shared opportunities or the beginning of the end facing 30 at a position where the beating taken often leads to early career decline) I am looking for trade opportunities. I am not a huge Kirk fan, but I think its time to get the best value you can for Zach, before a sense of production erosion becomes general. 

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1 hour ago, Dr. Dan said:

according to DTC this was little short... by the value of 2.5 exactly. 

Hinderly has it about the same as DTC

I think it's a pretty good return. If Fitzgerald announces his retirement today, Kirk's value balloons to that of DJ Moore last offseason. 

I see this as a great buy low/sell high moment, however I dont think Kirk will be an NFL WR1, it doesnt mean he can't be a great fantasy wr. You won't be able to make this trade in 4 months... 

I've been trying to sell Ertz since the fantasy season ended and haven't had much luck.  Not only did I feel overloaded at TE with Kittle, Ertz, Andrews, and Howard, but I also worry about Ertz starting to decline and/or Goedert stealing targets from him.  I like Kirk as a player and in that offense, even if he won't ever be a WR1.  Don't need him to be.  

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10-team PPR.

I'm prepared to hear that I gave up too much, but I really wanted Sanders and I have a ton of draft picks and need to trim some fat to make room.  So, the roster spots hold plenty of value to me.

Gave:  Melvin Gordon, Emmanuel Sanders, Nick Foles, 2020 1.10

Got:  Miles Sanders, 2020 2.08

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6 hours ago, TheBottomLine said:

10-team PPR.

I'm prepared to hear that I gave up too much, but I really wanted Sanders and I have a ton of draft picks and need to trim some fat to make room.  So, the roster spots hold plenty of value to me.

Gave:  Melvin Gordon, Emmanuel Sanders, Nick Foles, 2020 1.10

Got:  Miles Sanders, 2020 2.08

Yeah it's too much for sure, probably by a full Sanders/Foles.  Not like those are important pieces so it seems fine.  I'd prefer 1 more late 2nd to even it out for you, but I still like the move.  

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20 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

Yeah it's too much for sure, probably by a full Sanders/Foles.  Not like those are important pieces so it seems fine.  I'd prefer 1 more late 2nd to even it out for you, but I still like the move.  

I don’t think it’s too much at all. A full Foles and Emmanuel Sanders too much? Those are bit players...MG is gone, no idea what he did next and M. Sanders is a star. At this point give me Miles by a bit. 

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9 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

according to DTC this was little short... by the value of 2.5 exactly. 

Hinderly has it about the same as DTC

I think it's a pretty good return. If Fitzgerald announces his retirement today, Kirk's value balloons to that of DJ Moore last offseason. 

I see this as a great buy low/sell high moment, however I dont think Kirk will be an NFL WR1, it doesnt mean he can't be a great fantasy wr. You won't be able to make this trade in 4 months... 

I agree with this. I think Ertz has much less trade value in most leagues than a calculator would say. First because there are always owners in your league that don't value the TE position in a start one league (for strategy and team construction reasons). And then you have to factor in that basically every dynasty analyst has been recommending selling Ertz since last offseason and I'm sure the sentiment is even stronger now with the passage of another year and the emergence of Goedert. Your leaguemates will have noticed this and will likely have no interest in buying Ertz for "full value" based on production when there are younger, likely cheaper options with upside, and if you're the one selling Ertz they will be wary and won't want to pay up even if they are interested. A player at the level (and age) of Kirk to me seems like pretty much a best case scenario TBH if 2020 first rounders aren't on the table. 

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FFPC

I traded away: Odell Beckham Jr and Marlon Mack

I got: Joe Mixon

I still have JuJu, DJ Moore, Deebo, Metcalf 1.02, 1.10 and 2.02 as major pieces.  

I don't hate OBJ but I don't think he's ever top5 consideration WR anymore.  Ever.  Cashing out with 2 unknowns for a beast of a RB on an ascending team with Burrow (hopefully).  Mack is average'ish, some blow up weeks, good depth on an ok team.  I'm shooting my shot on ceiling here.  

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1 hour ago, Zyphros said:

FFPC

I traded away: Odell Beckham Jr and Marlon Mack

I got: Joe Mixon

I still have JuJu, DJ Moore, Deebo, Metcalf 1.02, 1.10 and 2.02 as major pieces.  

I don't hate OBJ but I don't think he's ever top5 consideration WR anymore.  Ever.  Cashing out with 2 unknowns for a beast of a RB on an ascending team with Burrow (hopefully).  Mack is average'ish, some blow up weeks, good depth on an ok team.  I'm shooting my shot on ceiling here.  

I like it 

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6 hours ago, Zyphros said:

I traded away: Odell Beckham Jr and Marlon Mack

I got: Joe Mixon

That deal had me try to get Mixon... I offered D Freeman ATL RB & Tyler Lockett SEA WR & 2 late picks (4.11 & 4.12) for Mixon & Mercole Hardman (he has Hill, Robinson & Da Williams all KC)

Shot down immediately...  But I like the idea of this move.  Might up the picks and try again....  2.11 is my best pick.  Or include Waller

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WOW...  this just went thru.... 12 Team 1.5 PPR TE, 1.0 PPR RB, 0.5 PPR WR  Bonus at 50 yards TE & 100 Rush/Rec RB/WR  (so TE heavy league)

Team A (lost Championship and now rebuild mode)  GAVE: KC TE T. Kelce &  SF WR E. Sanders

Team B (competitive but injury bug bit hard 2019) GOT: NYG E Engram, 1.04 & 2.09  

 

FYI - Team B Injuries = Cam, Guice, AJ Green, Ker Johnson (so he has potential for a competitive future)

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38 minutes ago, Birdie048 said:

That deal had me try to get Mixon... I offered D Freeman ATL RB & Tyler Lockett SEA WR & 2 late picks (4.11 & 4.12) for Mixon & Mercole Hardman (he has Hill, Robinson & Da Williams all KC)

Shot down immediately...  But I like the idea of this move.  Might up the picks and try again....  2.11 is my best pick.  Or include Waller

I think if you're going after Mixon you'll need to offer a top 5+ pick in this class or an equivalent player as part of the deal. Lockett is good and he produces, but his trade value in my experience isn't as great as you'd think given where he is typically ranked (as someone who has tried to move him). Freeman is almost worth nothing now and the 4th rounders are inconsequential. To ask for Hardman as well.....I'm not surprised it was shot down immediately.  

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2 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

As a Mixon owner that's a pretty easy decline. you're asking for 2 really good young prospects for a rb with about 2 years left as a starter, and a wr who is pretty good but old. 

It's nowhere close to OBJ and mack. Although I personally would not trade Mixon for Mack and obj...  

It's funny how quickly values change because I traded OBJ for Mixon and a second last offseason just before the OBJ trade to the Browns and it looked like a terrible trade at the time (and I regretted it). Now I feel like I got the better end of it. 

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FFPC

Sutton, Courtland 
Hill, Justice
2021 2nd Round 

For

Henry, Derrick
Westbrook, Dede

In league but not involved other than envy\jealousy that an 11-2 team could pick up Henry so cheaply. Two owners have lodged official complaints which is pretty silly imho. Its bad but not close to must be reversed bad; right?  

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1 hour ago, NE_REVIVAL said:

FFPC

Sutton, Courtland 
Hill, Justice
2021 2nd Round 

For

Henry, Derrick
Westbrook, Dede

In league but not involved other than envy\jealousy that an 11-2 team could pick up Henry so cheaply. Two owners have lodged official complaints which is pretty silly imho. Its bad but not close to must be reversed bad; right?  

Right. Some might even prefer Sutton who is going to be a stud. 

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2 hours ago, NE_REVIVAL said:

FFPC

Sutton, Courtland 
Hill, Justice
2021 2nd Round 

For

Henry, Derrick
Westbrook, Dede

In league but not involved other than envy\jealousy that an 11-2 team could pick up Henry so cheaply. Two owners have lodged official complaints which is pretty silly imho. Its bad but not close to must be reversed bad; right?  

wht is it bad? nfl rushing leader for a studly young wr

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13 hours ago, RushHour said:

I think if you're going after Mixon you'll need to offer a top 5+ pick in this class or an equivalent player as part of the deal. Lockett is good and he produces, but his trade value in my experience isn't as great as you'd think given where he is typically ranked (as someone who has tried to move him). Freeman is almost worth nothing now and the 4th rounders are inconsequential. To ask for Hardman as well.....I'm not surprised it was shot down immediately.  

 

12 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

my first impression reading that post was "well yeah take out Hardman and maybe..." then I realized Mixon is 23 and Freeman is 28 soon, and not nearly as good of a producer as Mixon. 

I agree, would need a lot more. 

Thanks both for the feedback.  I understood it was unlikley, but I was hoping to get a counter.  Maybe he likes Ingram over Freeman and only needs the 2.11 to be added....  I was just looking to find a starting point as to the availablilty or cost.    

I have not recieved any interest in Lockett which is a little surprising IMO, but he is my WR2 (behind Adams) so it would clearly have impacted my starters.  With him having 5 KC players, why not move 1 of them?   Is it a roster clog to have 3 KC WRs - T Hill, M Hardman, D Robinson?  I guess I was hoping to take advantage of that situation to some degree.  

But as for the Mixon trade value, I just don't have the pieces to make a worthy package to entice the owner without offering my best players (Chubb or Adams). 

 

ETA:  He said, rightly, it would take Chubb or D Adams to get Mixon.  Thus defeating the value of the move from my perspective. 

Edited by Birdie048
ETA: Stud Required
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1 hour ago, Dr. Dan said:

This is funny...  DTC has Sutton for Henry in favor of Sutton... 

Hinderly has a 2nd and Sutton pretty close to Henry. 

Certainly not enough to file a complaint. Can't blame anyone for seeing Henry as a sell high and Sutton as a buy.

The way Henry runs, I'm not sure he has longevity in his career (but what do I know). Sutton is just starting to bud out... he has about a decade ahead of him.  

It's the recency bias based on what he's done in the playoffs. Obviously he had a great season overall as well, but given his age and heavy workload I agree he's not a terrible sell high candidate. I don't see this deal as lopsided either.

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3 hours ago, NE_REVIVAL said:

FFPC

Sutton, Courtland 
Hill, Justice
2021 2nd Round 

For

Henry, Derrick
Westbrook, Dede

In league but not involved other than envy\jealousy that an 11-2 team could pick up Henry so cheaply. Two owners have lodged official complaints which is pretty silly imho. Its bad but not close to must be reversed bad; right?  

I prefer Sutton, but I have an irrational hatred for Derrick Henry.  

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16 hours ago, Birdie048 said:

WOW...  this just went thru.... 12 Team 1.5 PPR TE, 1.0 PPR RB, 0.5 PPR WR  Bonus at 50 yards TE & 100 Rush/Rec RB/WR  (so TE heavy league)

Team A (lost Championship and now rebuild mode)  GAVE: KC TE T. Kelce &  SF WR E. Sanders

Team B (competitive but injury bug bit hard 2019) GOT: NYG E Engram, 1.04 & 2.09  

 

FYI - Team B Injuries = Cam, Guice, AJ Green, Ker Johnson (so he has potential for a competitive future)

Which side do you think got hosed?

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On 1/14/2020 at 9:49 AM, Zyphros said:

FFPC someone actually did this, I'm rather shocked

Team A got: 2020 3rd and 4th

Team B got: Antonio Brown

I'd pay it for AB and I've turned down several similar type offers for him.

Edited by menobrown
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16 hours ago, Birdie048 said:

WOW...  this just went thru.... 12 Team 1.5 PPR TE, 1.0 PPR RB, 0.5 PPR WR  Bonus at 50 yards TE & 100 Rush/Rec RB/WR  (so TE heavy league)

Team A (lost Championship and now rebuild mode)  GAVE: KC TE T. Kelce &  SF WR E. Sanders

Team B (competitive but injury bug bit hard 2019) GOT: NYG E Engram, 1.04 & 2.09  

 

5 minutes ago, menobrown said:

Which side do you think got hosed?

I think he sold Kelce short, not hosed but missed on other value.  Engram 2020 is in final year of contract and I do not trust Gettleman.  I am not a fan of Engram due to injury history (34 of 48 games played last 3 seasons)  I don't think they will resign him and uncertain future. 

Kelce has missed 1 game in last 5 season & signed thru 2021... Granted Kelce is 30 & Engram is 25 yo... 

I see Kelce as a Sell High... this was not high IMO

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FFPC, about a week ago:

 

Gave: N'keal Harry,  Corey Davis, Crowder

Got: Gallup and AJG

I already lost by drafting Harry and Davis over Miles and CMC, and I'm saying that as far from giving up on Harry but who in their right mind would take him over Sanders today? Corey I gave up on.

Harry vs Gallup was how trade offer to me started and like I said I'm not giving up on Harry but I'm certainly disappointed so this was easy call to me. Their age is about 9 months apart, one just posted 15PPG over 14 games, the other I don't know if/when he'll develop on an offense with ton of uncertainty.

AJG vs Corey/Crowder component of trade. Again easy call for me but I also was going to cut one of Corey or Crowder if not both so I don't mind the 2 for 1. Really other then what I could get back in trade for the two WR's I gave up they had little to no value to me and this league WR's have been going for peanuts this offseason and I'm still sitting on a guy like John Brown I'm tasked with moving for decent value and so far not finding it . I got a very young roster that is pressed hard for roster room today and that should get worse in upcoming next few years so I don't mind so much on this team acquiring someone to help me out a year or two before sending them off. Also this team basically lived on a bunch of WDIS type WR's last year(Crowder, John Brown, Anthony Miller types) and felt a sure thing weekly lineup guy like AJG made a ton of sense. AJG is one of my least favorite players in the NFL, but I still think he has an elite 1-2 years left with Burrow or in  the right new destination.

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15 minutes ago, Birdie048 said:

 

I think he sold Kelce short, not hosed but missed on other value.  Engram 2020 is in final year of contract and I do not trust Gettleman.  I am not a fan of Engram due to injury history (34 of 48 games played last 3 seasons)  I don't think they will resign him and uncertain future. 

Kelce has missed 1 game in last 5 season & signed thru 2021... Granted Kelce is 30 & Engram is 25 yo... 

I see Kelce as a Sell High... this was not high IMO

Thanks for answering and based on how people feel about Engram I thought that was way you probably felt.

I'd prefer the Engram side myself.  I get the injuries on Engram but sometimes stuff just happens. Kelce missed his entire first year, Engrams had a multiple injuries but stuff like that just does not bother me as much because despite the last few years I don't feel confident predicting Engram will continue to suffer more injuries then a player 5 years older. Those 5 years, and not because of injury, are just huge to me. 

I also don't trust Gettleman because of that the fact he is entering the last year of his contract I view as great news. His future is not uncertain to me, where he plays might be but not his future. I think a lot of teams that would know how to use him better and in an offense were 2 of your top 3 WR's are better slot WR's could be way better for his long term future but the production, especially his weekly consistency, was already pretty good last year in this offense with Eli and a rookie QB. My strong opinion is that any potential change of scenery will just be better.

So for me I'd take the player who has had some injuries but I get 5 years younger and know I'm also going to be able to draft one of Jeudy, Lamb, Swift, Dobbins as absolute worst case scenario I'd do it.

But people hate or are super down on Engram right now so I understand your reaction to the trade, especially when Kelce is running around throwing down 40+ in real playoff games.

 

 

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18 hours ago, Birdie048 said:

WOW...  this just went thru.... 12 Team 1.5 PPR TE, 1.0 PPR RB, 0.5 PPR WR  Bonus at 50 yards TE & 100 Rush/Rec RB/WR  (so TE heavy league)

Team A (lost Championship and now rebuild mode)  ***GAVE***: KC TE T. Kelce &  SF WR E. Sanders

Team B (competitive but injury bug bit hard 2019) ***GOT***: NYG E Engram, 1.04 & 2.09  

 

FYI - Team B Injuries = Cam, Guice, AJ Green, Ker Johnson (so he has potential for a competitive future)

Errrrrrr I'm going to say Team B by an entire Kelce, Sanders, Engram, 1.04 and 2.09. Holy cow. This is like that heads I win tails you lose scenario. Love it. I can never get this one to work, though.

Just kidding, I take Engram and 1.04 by a lot. I love Kelce but this is the perfect kind of deal to move him.

Edited by barackdhouse
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10 hours ago, bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

wht is it bad? nfl rushing leader for a studly young wr

I would much rather have Henry over Sutton, particularly in that lg where i have thomas,evans,allen,kupp,mclaurin,gallup and desperate for rb. Many of my tms r wr heavy and my feeling is there r lot more young promising wrs than solid rbs. As has been pointed out there is a lot of love for Sutton and i did call out the protests as silly so not pounding the table over it.

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  • Gottabesweet changed the title to ****OFFICIAL 2021 OFF- SEASON DYNASTY TRADES****

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