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****OFFICIAL 2021 OFF- SEASON DYNASTY TRADES****


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27 minutes ago, hispeedthinmint said:

So then you put more stock in landing spot

I did not say that in a general way...if a subpar franchise took CEH in the first it would not have anywhere near the influence like a team like KC.

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No, they won't accept

You mean it went down in a league you used to be in??  I’d go ful Vontae Davis on that league asap 

I don't know why so many people are saying that this is a fair return (despite preferring CMC as they should). It isn't. This is a fraction of what it should cost for a guy like CMC, either that or th

Just now, FreeBaGeL said:

People were very high on Sony pre-draft.

NE is a good organization but doesn't have a particularly good track record drafting RBs or WRs.  That's different than Andy Reid the RB whisperer going to bat for a guy as the one of if not the best RB he's ever drafted.

Again I was very high on CEH pre-draft so this is irrelevant to me, but it's silly to not re-evaluate after something like this happens.  We always talk about draft capital, not pre-draft capital.  It's irrelevant that Lamar Jackson was considered a 4th round prospect in February the year he came out when he was drafted in the 1st round of the actual draft in April.

For the record, I did move up CEH post-draft. The biggest reason was going 32 overall instead of 60-90 overall where many mock drafts, etc had him estimated pre-draft.

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Just now, Chad Parsons said:

For those who don't really rank rookies pre-NFL Draft - how do you (or would you) handle rookies in a dynasty startup draft or a rookie draft which occurs before the NFL Draft? Simply fade all rookies due to letting the draft play out? Not ever be in one of those drafts/leagues to start with?

Personally I'm not in a league that follows this calendar.  If I were, I'd just do my best with the information available.  

Running back is so situationally dependant IMO that I think its bad process to rank them before knowing landing spots.  Ill study them all day long, but just trying to complete the picture of who they are as a prospect.  Then check the fit with the team that drafts them.  With CHE, its hand in glove.  I liked a lot of things about the player and he went to the perfect spot and was taken before any other RBs, which made him an easy 1.01 for me.

 

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2 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

People were very high on Sony pre-draft.

NE is a good organization but doesn't have a particularly good track record drafting RBs or WRs.  That's different than Andy Reid the RB whisperer going to bat for a guy as the one of if not the best RB he's ever drafted.

Again I was very high on CEH pre-draft so this is irrelevant to me, but it's silly to not re-evaluate after something like this happens.  We always talk about draft capital, not pre-draft capital.  It's irrelevant that Lamar Jackson was considered a 4th round prospect in February the year he came out when he was drafted in the 1st round of the actual draft in April.

In general wading into the Patriots RB swamp is usually more of a fantasy headache then a plus.

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On 5/24/2020 at 3:14 PM, rockaction said:

I was reminded yesterday in reading about CEH why I, in particular, hate him as a prospect other than situation. His speed score is woeful, according to Football Outsiders.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, LSU
BackCAST Score: -36.1%
RecIndex: 0.18
Similar Historical Prospects: Ahmad Bradshaw, Christine Michael

Edwards-Helaire is the 2020 NFL draft's most overrated running back according to BackCAST. First, Edwards-Helaire has similar workload issues as Swift, except somewhat more severe. Edwards-Helaire was a complete non-factor as a freshman and played clear second fiddle to Nick Brossette, who would become an undrafted free agent, as a sophomore. Edwards-Helaire earned much more action as a junior, but even then LSU chose to give 140 carries to an assortment of freshman running backs. Moreover, when Edwards-Helaire did get the ball, he was only somewhat productive on a per play basis, averaging just under 5.6 yards per carry. To be fair, Edwards-Helaire was productive as a receiver, which could translate to receiving production in the NFL.

However, the real problem with Edwards-Helaire's projection is his size-speed combination, or lack thereof. Edwards-Helaire is only 207 pounds, which makes him one of the ten lightest backs invited to the combine. Despite his relatively small size, however, Edwards-Helaire recorded a slow 4.60-second 40-yard dash. The best drafted running back under 210 pounds that recorded a 40-yard dash of 4.60 seconds or worse is probably Ahmad Bradshaw, who had a couple of nice seasons with the Giants. The rest of the list is far less appealing: Ameer Abdullah, Mark Walton, Travis Stephens, Javon Ringer, Dee Brown, Kevin Taylor, Storm Johnson, and Shyrone Stith. None of those running backs made a sizeable impact in the NFL.

A second round pick -- where Edwards-Helaire is currently rated -- is a high price to pay for a running back, and it is an especially high price to pay for a running back without the historical markers of success, at least as a pure rusher. The question for NFL decision-makers on Edwards-Helaire is whether there is something great enough on his tape to offset the statistical evidence against his success - FO

While everything you are saying is correct, you are forgetting what Andy Reid has done for RBs and he actually values CEH that high.  Go back and look at how many years Reid has had a top 10 RB on his team.  All of the time.  And he is calling CEH a better Bryan Westbrook.  I think he believes the benefit of the doubt with his track record.  Also, passing means the world to KC, along with the fact that he will face 6 man boxes all of the time.  You guys are looking at stats way too much at this point.

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Someone tell me this wasn't stupid...lol. 12 team PPR dynasty league

Traded: Njoku for 3.9 rookie pick. 

My team needs WR and RB help more than Njoku but I just couldn't get much anything for him. Solid move or dumb on my part?

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4 minutes ago, ffmail4me said:

Someone tell me this wasn't stupid...lol. 12 team PPR dynasty league

Traded: Njoku for 3.9 rookie pick. 

My team needs WR and RB help more than Njoku but I just couldn't get much anything for him. Solid move or dumb on my part?

Not stupid. His own NFL team gave up on Njoku, why wouldn't you? 

Another talented guy that just can't put it together.

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2 minutes ago, Chad Parsons said:

Who did you draft @ffmail4me?

Clock is currently sitting at 3.5 (and about to expire in 1 hour) and then I have the 3.7 and 3.9 picks coming up. Best available are Claypool, DuVernay, Hamler, Kelley, Dallas, Benjamin, Trautman, Kmet, Asiasi, Love, Hurts....

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30 minutes ago, Jonesin For Some Football said:

I feel this was an overpay for Moore.  I guess it depends on your team and what you are doing but new coach, new QB that doesn't push the ball much, and a RB that gets 100 targets regularly.

DJ doesn’t really need a gunslinger back there, though. He’s going to make his money catching a lot of balls and being a YAC monster. And if there’s one thing Teddy is, it’s accurate. I think he’s a great fit for Moore. 

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25 minutes ago, Chad Parsons said:

For those who don't really rank rookies pre-NFL Draft - how do you (or would you) handle rookies in a dynasty startup draft or a rookie draft which occurs before the NFL Draft? Simply fade all rookies due to letting the draft play out? Not ever be in one of those drafts/leagues to start with?

Never ever be in one of those drafts/leagues is the correct answer.

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15 minutes ago, ffmail4me said:

Someone tell me this wasn't stupid...lol. 12 team PPR dynasty league

Traded: Njoku for 3.9 rookie pick. 

My team needs WR and RB help more than Njoku but I just couldn't get much anything for him. Solid move or dumb on my part?

I did something similar about two months ago. I moved Njoku for a late 3rd (before our rookie draft). This is that FFPC style league that disbands this year, so closer to redraft, but worth noting that I got laughed at by a couple guys for it. Meanwhile that dude ended up dropping him and Njoku made it thru 7 rounds of the FA/rookie draft unclaimed and is still available.

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58 minutes ago, Chad Parsons said:

In the context of 'one of the best organizations in football used a high pick on a player' - does that mean Sony Michel should have been a high 1st that year? He would be an example of a team drafted a player not consensus that high pre-draft and moved up in dynasty drafts as a result I can recently recall.

This is apples and oranges.  NE is known for RBBC so Michel was doomed in his landing spot.  Andy Reid goes with his guy and obviously CEH is his guy.  Very different spots so this argument doesn't hold water.

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8 minutes ago, Dr. BD said:

Except back when NE drafted Michel the argument was “BB has never drafted a rb round 1. Surely he wouldn’t draft a rb in round 1 and then not use him as a workhorse?!” I remember that vividly...

It’s almost one of the exact arguments made for CEH in KC, even though it was RBBC last year, CEH has documented issues in pass pro, and the coaches came out and stated that CEH would “have a role” in the running back situation- implying RBBC...

Except BB has failed with RBs and WRs for years.  Reid hasn't.

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5 hours ago, Chad Parsons said:

Maybe the situation is so darn good it doesn't matter. Maybe CEH only has to be okay to thrive with the Chiefs. Maybe that's all that is required of a back there to soak up touches and 10+ touchdowns. We will see. But betting overtly on rookie situation is a dangerous game.

Another possibility: Maybe you are underrating his ability.

I don't think Clyde is the next Saquon, but I do think he can be very good.

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15 minutes ago, Dr. BD said:

just talk to @Anarchy99 about how dominant the rbs as a whole has been under BB. I recall many people stating that, paired with 1st round draft capital meant a future stud.

 

again, I agree to disagree here... it’s clear recency bias is pretty heavy here, and this is the trade thread anyways

Laurence Maroney says hello

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21 minutes ago, Dr. BD said:

Except back when NE drafted Michel the argument was “BB has never drafted a rb round 1. Surely he wouldn’t draft a rb in round 1 and then not use him as a workhorse?!” I remember that vividly...

Laurence Maroney should be one reason that argument could not have existed.

I personally don't know anyone who was higher on Sony because NE took him. Not saying people here were not, but not me or anyone I talk to.

But I'm not sure what is even being discussed anymore because when Sony has been healthy he's been close to workhorse runner, were his usage left those of us who believed in him wanting more was his lack of involvement in the passing game which statistically was weak his last year in college but he looked like he had a lot of ability. He was coming in after the Kamara rookie year and that's what a lot of people were talking him up as, some kind of Kamara guy who did not need to be an every down back  I don't think a lot of us who invested in him were looking for a bell cow but more of a multi-dimensional weapon.

 

 

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28 minutes ago, Dr. BD said:

just talk to @Anarchy99 about how dominant the rbs as a whole has been under BB. I recall many people stating that, paired with 1st round draft capital meant a future stud.

 

again, I agree to disagree here... it’s clear recency bias is pretty heavy here, and this is the trade thread anyways

The Hoody's RB draft picks: JR Redmond, Antwoine Womack, Cedric Cobbs, Laurence Maroney, Justise Hairston, Shane Vereen, Stevan Ridley, James White, Sony Michel, and Damien Harris.  You really want to base your arguments on that track record?

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20 minutes ago, Dr. BD said:

just talk to @Anarchy99 about how dominant the rbs as a whole has been under BB. I recall many people stating that, paired with 1st round draft capital meant a future stud.

 

again, I agree to disagree here... it’s clear recency bias is pretty heavy here, and this is the trade thread anyways

Not sure what I said or when (or what the above was in reference to), but the combined running back TOTALS for NE have been near the top of the league for years. Individually, their running backs have not fared anywhere near as well. There was a stretch for several years where the main ball carrier on NE put up fantasy RB1 totals over the course of a season . . . the problem was that the primary ball carrier kept getting hurt. So they churned through multiple RB's in a season (which at the time looked like it was a RBBC when it really wasn't).

But that was a while ago. More recently, they seem to have embraced defined roles for their backs. A first and second down runner (that doesn't usually catch passes), a third down specialist (that catches passes but doesn't usually run), a third back that would get a couple of series a game, and a universal back up to all those roles. Add in a fullback, and the pie was usually spread out among a bunch of people.

Here were the COMBINED numbers for the Patriots running backs each year in the Brady era (YFS and total TDs):

2019: 2691/20
2018: 2645/23
2017: 2738/25
2016: 2330/23
2015: 2356/20
2014: 2122/16
2013: 2776/22
2012: 2748/25
2011: 1939/14
2010: 2437/19
2009: 2402/18
2008: 2731/22
2007: 2278/15
2006: 2573/24
2005: 2149/16
2004: 2669/17
2003: 2189/9
2002: 2201/13
1001: 2338/20

That averages out to 2437/19 per season over 19 years. So, yeah, I would say that the NE backfield has been well above average as a group, but as far as producing a top fantasy RB . . . not so much. By comparison, the Panthers RBs (with CMC) combined for 2593/21 last year. The Patriots RBs over the past 19 seasons bested that yardage total 6 times and that TD total 7 times. If only they gave the majority of the workload to one guy . . . he would be a fantasy superhero.

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1 hour ago, Dr. BD said:

Except back when NE drafted Michel the argument was “BB has never drafted a rb round 1. Surely he wouldn’t draft a rb in round 1 and then not use him as a workhorse?!” I remember that vividly...

It’s almost one of the exact arguments made for CEH in KC, even though it was RBBC last year, CEH has documented issues in pass pro, and the coaches came out and stated that CEH would “have a role” in the running back situation- implying RBBC...

 

ETA: no sense in hijacking this thread further. I’ll agree to disagree here. I’m just surprised that the hindsight on Michel is 20/20 but the foresight on him was 20/20 as well. Thats completely wrong; people were stoked about Michel post draft. Many of the same arguments about CEH were made for Michel

As others have said, BB has certainly drafted a RB in the 1st round before Sony.

Again, apples to oranges here.  BB has never drafted a RB that was anything more than a 1-year plug-in.  I'm not sure any RB he's drafted has ever made the pro bowl.  Meanwhile Reid has drafted 2 guys that would be in the fantasy HOF if there was one and a 3rd (Hunt) that probably would've joined them were it not for the off the field incident.

No comparison between Reid/BB in their ability to draft RBs.

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4 minutes ago, Dr. BD said:

Yeah not worth it right now to leave that post. I found it interesting that menobrown has made a supportive comment though. 
 

And yes, the exact statement was this was the first 1st round RB since 2006...

i was mostly joking, its mostly me hating on sony

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20 hours ago, King of the Jungle said:

I know some like both of those rookies (I don’t, but that is a different story) but boy I find it hard to believe that the Kamara owner could not have got more than that.

Yeah that's reject no counter territory for him for me.

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2 minutes ago, Jonesin For Some Football said:

We just had this in a 12 team, .5 PPR league:

Parris Campbell, David Montgomery, 3.11, and 2 2021 1sts (projected mid-late)

for

Joe Mixon, Christian Kirk, and Dallas Goedert (only other TE is Noah Fant)

Thoughts?

Seems a little light for Mixon honestly, and I also like Kirk and Goedert so I would take that side. I’m not too big on Montgomery. 

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8 minutes ago, JoeJoe88 said:

Seems a little light for Mixon honestly, and I also like Kirk and Goedert so I would take that side. I’m not too big on Montgomery. 

I do like Montgomery to bounce back a bit but I am high on Mixon.  Just couldn't pass on the deal as I didn't have a 1st or 2nd next year and I still have Barkley & Kamara along with 1.2 this year.

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23 minutes ago, Matt's Eagles said:

12 Team PPR, TE 1.5 PPR

Team A got Aaron Jones, Jamal Williams, Jonnu Smith

Team B got  Melvin Gordon, Breida, Herndon

I like Breida, but I see this as a win for the team getting Jones. Jones>Melvin, Breida>Williams and Jonnu>Herndon. 

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47 minutes ago, Matt's Eagles said:

12 Team PPR, TE 1.5 PPR

Team A got Aaron Jones, Jamal Williams, Jonnu Smith

Team B got  Melvin Gordon, Breida, Herndon

Pretty even trade to me, I'd lean the Gordon side I had to choose.

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22 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I am in five FFPC non-SF leagues and he never made it past 1.08 in any of them.  1.08 in four of them and 1.06 in one.

ETA: I would imagine most FFPC leagues he goes either 1.08 or 1.09 with Jefferson in the other spot.  Vaughn creeps up into that range in some as well.

Out of 320 non superflex FFPC rookie drafts this year Reagor ADP was actually the 1.10 and his range was from the 1.06 to 2.07.  Yes I know hard to believe he fell to pick 19 in at least 1 FFPC rookie draft this year.  Interesting his ADP is actually 1.10 not 1.08 or 1.09 where you guys seen him go in most of your drafts like I said in 2 of my 3 he went 1.12.

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10 minutes ago, Dr. BD said:

 

not involved, 12 team PPR, 1QB, 6 pt all TD, no negative points

 

Team A: significant rebuild

Gets: J. Kelley, Cephus, 2021 2nd (should be very early), 2021 3rd (should be very late)

 

Team B: win now

Gets: Drake

Definitely Drake...Team B is nibbling around the edges of his roster and gets a RB with top 10 upside...this is not really a win now move, it's just a good deal...Team A's significant rebuild is not less significant after this deal. 

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16 minutes ago, Dr. BD said:

Yeah I felt like this was off by a 2021 1st. Market is real dry for Drake. I thought about sniffing around but I decided against it. Had I known he was so cheap I would have. Kind of disappointed as Team B is likely my biggest competition for the title. He now has CMC, Chubb, Drake, Ingram, Singletary

Hate to say it but I really like that guy's RB corps

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1 hour ago, Dr. BD said:

 

not involved, 12 team PPR, 1QB, 6 pt all TD, no negative points

 

Team A: significant rebuild

Gets: J. Kelley, Cephus, 2021 2nd (should be very early), 2021 3rd (should be very late)

 

Team B: win now

Gets: Drake

I think this is gross. 

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12 team PPR, start 1Q, 2R, 3W, 1T, 1K, 1DST, and 2 Flex (non-Q). All of these trades occurred over the past week:

Team A gave up Year 2020 Draft Pick 1.02
Team B gave up Year 2020 Draft Pick 1.04; Year 2020 Draft Pick 2.04

Team C gave up Year 2020 Draft Pick 2.06
Team D gave up Hooper, Austin CLE TE

Team B gave up Hill, Tyreek KCC WR; Year 2020 Draft Pick 3.04; Year 2021 Round 2 Draft Pick
Team E gave up Darnold, Sam NYJ QB; Chark, D.J. JAC WR; Sutton, Courtland DEN WR; Year 2020 Draft Pick 4.07; Year 2021 Round 4 Draft Pick

Team A gave up Ertz, Zach PHI TE; Year 2020 Draft Pick 2.09
Team F gave up Year 2020 Draft Pick 1.08

I'm not involved in any of them. Draft is in progress, round 1 in the books, to give some context for the 2020 pick trades:

  1. Taylor
  2. CEH
  3. Dobbins
  4. Akers
  5. Swift
  6. Lamb
  7. Jeudy
  8. Reagor
  9. Pittman
  10. Jefferson
  11. Ruggs
  12. Vaughn

Not sure what Team A intends to do with 2.04, but the first trade could end up as CEH for Akers and one of the top 10 drafted WRs.

Thoughts?

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5 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

12 team PPR, start 1Q, 2R, 3W, 1T, 1K, 1DST, and 2 Flex (non-Q). All of these trades occurred over the past week:

Team A gave up Year 2020 Draft Pick 1.02
Team B gave up Year 2020 Draft Pick 1.04; Year 2020 Draft Pick 2.04

Team C gave up Year 2020 Draft Pick 2.06
Team D gave up Hooper, Austin CLE TE

I like the trade to move back from 1.02 to 1.04. I'd take Akers + Aiyuk for JT, although I'm admittedly not a supporter of his.

I think a mid 2nd is real cheap for a young established TE. 

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22 hours ago, Dr. BD said:

just talk to @Anarchy99 about how dominant the rbs as a whole has been under BB. I recall many people stating that, paired with 1st round draft capital meant a future stud.

 

again, I agree to disagree here... it’s clear recency bias is pretty heavy here, and this is the trade thread anyways

I totally agree that when you add 2, 3, or even 4 RBs together then ya it equals a great RB.  That is a horrible argument for fantasy football.  Plus, most of those RBs are guys that weren't drafted by him.  Dillon, Faulk, Blount, and others.  Seems like bending stats to make an argument that doesn't fit what we are talking about.

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2 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

I like the trade to move back from 1.02 to 1.04. I'd take Akers + Aiyuk for JT, although I'm admittedly not a supporter of his.

I think a mid 2nd is real cheap for a young established TE. 

Looks like in this case was CEH, does that change it for you? (versus JT being there at 1.02)

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21 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:
33 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

12 team PPR, start 1Q, 2R, 3W, 1T, 1K, 1DST, and 2 Flex (non-Q). All of these trades occurred over the past week:

Team A gave up Year 2020 Draft Pick 1.02
Team B gave up Year 2020 Draft Pick 1.04; Year 2020 Draft Pick 2.04

Team C gave up Year 2020 Draft Pick 2.06
Team D gave up Hooper, Austin CLE TE

I like the trade to move back from 1.02 to 1.04. I'd take Akers + Aiyuk for JT, although I'm admittedly not a supporter of his.

I think a mid 2nd is real cheap for a young established TE. 

Agree on the Hooper trade, and it seemed particularly odd to me because the team trading Hooper away has only 1 TE, Sternberger.

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