King of the Jungle
Footballguy
I am blown away that anyone wants JJAW on their roster. Great trade.Andy Dufresne said:
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****OFFICIAL DYNASTY TRADES**** (23 Viewers)
- Thread starter Gottabesweet
- Start date
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Great thing was, it was offered TO me. From a guy that normally won't trade under any circumstances. He offered me this or JJAW for Devin Duvernay. The choice was obvious.
Johnny B. Goode
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
I really dislike Harry but like your side of this deal. Green's warning sings point to him being very close to being done as a top-flight guy in the NFL.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I am as weary of investing in Patriots receivers as I am of AJ Green falling off of cliff.
i know others like the deal. I feel like you’re selling Green low coming off of a lost season.
if it were me. I’d probably hold for a season (or partial season) and see if Green can build his value a little more.
he may well fall off of a cliff in a year or two. But if he plays well for a year, a “win now” team in need of a WR might pay more than Harry for him.
all speculation of course, and depending on how he plays.
I’m not high on Harry & a rebuilding Pats offense. I like Cam, but he doesn’t have that many years either, and there are a lot of unknowns about what that offense will look like. I think Cam will be better than most seem to believe, but he’s a TD vulture, he loves TEs, and the Pats like to spread the ball around.
On the upside, if you like Harry, at least you got someone you want and got out of an aging asset.
This inspires me to try to buy low on Green. I think he has a few good years left.
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
If anything Harry is being sold low. He was a top 3 rookie pick last offseason that was banged up for most of his rookie year. You’d be lucky to get a late first for Green, let alone a top 3 pick.
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I couldn't get offered anything of substance for Green in a league where I was rebuilding (best offer straight up was a late 2nd next year), had to package him with something else.
The issue I think with this is WRs at Green's age (and even younger honestly) aren't going to be able to build value. Even if he has a white hot season or part of a season, his value will stay basically the same, or even get slightly lower as he ages another year. Maybe there's a contender out there who would pay up for the short term production, but in most leagues I'd say that's very unlikely. Even that short-term production might not be there, injuries happen etc. It's no guarantee.
The fact is that maybe 9 or 10 owners in any given league have no interest in owning AJG, or Julio or Ty (for example). Not saying that's right, but that's the way it is. Even OBJ is heading this way - he could be the overall WR1 this year and I'd bet his trade value only marginally increases due to age and the fact that many dynasty players just don't want him on their teams.
Harry at least to me is potentially a more liquid asset, regardless of what you think of him as a player. And if he hits, well even better.
BINGBING
Footballguy
During this off-season i've acquired Juju in three of my five pre-existing leagues (So not counting start-ups). I didn't send out any of the offers. It just seems odd to me that one particular player that I wasn't actively seeking was offered up to me without even asking about him.
PPR Start 1 QB:
Gave: Cooks, 1.06(He got CD Lamb)
Got: Juju, Lamar Jackson
PPR Superflex
Gave: Edelman, 1.08, 2021 2nd
Got: Juju
PPR Superflex (irrelevant in this deal)
Gave: Golladay
Got: Juju
This last one was the only one that made me hesitate for a second. I think Golladay is in for a big year, but still prefer Juju long term.
PPR Start 1 QB:
Gave: Cooks, 1.06(He got CD Lamb)
Got: Juju, Lamar Jackson
PPR Superflex
Gave: Edelman, 1.08, 2021 2nd
Got: Juju
PPR Superflex (irrelevant in this deal)
Gave: Golladay
Got: Juju
This last one was the only one that made me hesitate for a second. I think Golladay is in for a big year, but still prefer Juju long term.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
Harry isn't a top 3 pick. If you redid last years rookie draft he would be a mid to late 2nd. If he was in this years draft he would be a mid 2nd.Dr. Octopus said:
I am taking Green in this deal. If and this is a big if Burrows is legit then this could revive Green. I am not saying he will be what he was, but I could see him having 3ish more years of low end wr 2 or high end wr 3 production. Much like Fitzgerald, or Wayne.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Oh just that guy thrown in.BINGBING said:
sheerterror
Footballguy
Probably because it was the only one that was remotely close.BINGBING said:
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Meh, there's a lot of speculation and opinion posing as facts here but the truth is Harry was a consensus top 3 pick and only lost favor because he was injured most of his rookie season.
It just goes to show that despite dynasty "experts" pretending they think long term, most have a redraft mentality and are fickle.
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Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
12 team, .5 PPR, 1 QB (Not Involved)
Chris Godwin
for
1.11 (Jalen Reagor), 2 2021 1sts (both projected very late), and a 2021 3rd
Chris Godwin
for
1.11 (Jalen Reagor), 2 2021 1sts (both projected very late), and a 2021 3rd
JohnnyU
Footballguy
JoeSteeler
Footballguy
Twenty-Four Eighty-Four
Footballguy
northern exposure
Footballguy
I don't know. I think at least some of Harry's high ranking was due to him being on the Pats and their lack of weapons at WR. Now Brady is gone and the Patriots offense going forward is a mystery. NE's history with drafting WRs isn't great either.Dr. Octopus said:
I'm not saying Green is a great get for Harry, but I think it is a close deal.
farfromforgotten
Footballguy
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Knowing what we knew then in that particular class. Even knowing what we knew then he wouldn't crack 2020 top 8 and of course we saw some not great stuff too. Can't fairly assign him any kind of top 3 value.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
2020 1st, what? Is this an old trade or something or do you do rookie drafts super late and how do you not know draft order?
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I get what you’re saying, and in the context of “current trade value” you’re probably correct.Dr. Octopus said:
what I’m saying is that
1. I’m not sold on either the Pats offense/WRs right now, or Harry as a talent.
2. given that, I also don’t believe he will perform well this year. Which will drop his value:
at least Green has a track record where some WR-needy team won’t write off a hot start as a fluke this year, and might be willing to pay for him to bolster a win-now roster if he strings together 3-4 WR2-caliber games.
conversely if Harry doesn’t have a great year, now it’s 2 seasons without producing. What’s his value then?
so yes - I agree, on paper it’s not a terrible deal. Wasn’t suggesting it was. Quite fair in fact.
but if it’s me, I hang onto Green to see if he can get off to a hot start & increase his value. Combined with the part where I don’t think Harry is that good, and there are questions about the new-look Pats offense.
sorry if I was unclear. I’m not saying there’s a wrong answer here. As I said in my Initial response, OP got the player he liked and got out from an aging asset. No shame in that.
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wgoldsph
Footballguy
I'm a huge Godwin guy so I'd go with him but I can see an argument for both sides.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
I think this is pretty fair, but I feel like Godwin owner could have gotten more out of it.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
nirad3
Footballguy
Decided to mix things up a bit in my IDP dynasty w/ salary caps.
Gave up:
Mixon (a fairly high $216 against the cap, 4 years left on deal)
Tannehill ($149/4)
Bobby Wagner (unfortunately I agreed to pay his fairly high $157/1, but adding him let me give him a 3rd - see below - rather than a 2nd... I'm super-stacked at LB, still)
2021 3rd
Got back:
Kittle (a ridiculously low $4/3)
Denzel Mims ($27/4 and will be put on DTS)
Brees (a very high $400/1)
Russell Gage (throw-in at $2/1)
------------
Was a bit hesitant with Tannehill (or Burrow) at QB this year, so Brees gives me a nice bridge to Burrow in 2021
Was a little against having RB and QB on same team (I know this has been debated before... not a huge deal but a consideration)
Will start CEH at RB (only need to start 1)
Will start 2 TEs - Kittle and Hooper (no TE premium, unfortunately, but will be two very good starters)
Gave up:
Mixon (a fairly high $216 against the cap, 4 years left on deal)
Tannehill ($149/4)
Bobby Wagner (unfortunately I agreed to pay his fairly high $157/1, but adding him let me give him a 3rd - see below - rather than a 2nd... I'm super-stacked at LB, still)
2021 3rd
Got back:
Kittle (a ridiculously low $4/3)
Denzel Mims ($27/4 and will be put on DTS)
Brees (a very high $400/1)
Russell Gage (throw-in at $2/1)
------------
Was a bit hesitant with Tannehill (or Burrow) at QB this year, so Brees gives me a nice bridge to Burrow in 2021
Was a little against having RB and QB on same team (I know this has been debated before... not a huge deal but a consideration)
Will start CEH at RB (only need to start 1)
Will start 2 TEs - Kittle and Hooper (no TE premium, unfortunately, but will be two very good starters)
Zyphros
Footballguy
FFPC league
Team A got: Saquon Barkley, 2021 2nd (likely late)
Team B got: Chark, CEH, 2021 1st (likely late)
I have a clear winner on this deal, I imagine some might consider this closer though. Anyways it's the only Barkley deal I've ever seen in my own leagues so figured it was worth a posting.
Team A got: Saquon Barkley, 2021 2nd (likely late)
Team B got: Chark, CEH, 2021 1st (likely late)
I have a clear winner on this deal, I imagine some might consider this closer though. Anyways it's the only Barkley deal I've ever seen in my own leagues so figured it was worth a posting.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I may be the highest person on CEH on this forum but I still think that's crazy cheap for Barkley.
It doesn't help any that it's FFPC, where guys like Chark aren't worth much relative to leagues with larger rosters and more starting WRs required.
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NE_REVIVAL
Footballguy
Agreed, seems awfully cheap for Barkley
bostonfred
Footballguy
JohnnyU
Footballguy
There are very few players I would give 3 1sts for and Godwin isn't one of them, especially if one of those picks are top 5. I could see someone being OK giving 1.10, 1.11, and 1.12 for Godwin if that was the scenario, but most of the time it isn't and owners stand the risk of giving a lot higher picks than they first thought they would be.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
If he's confident those 2021 1sts will indeed be late I would take Godwin over 3 late 1sts very easily, and I'm not even a big Godwin fan.
bostonfred
Footballguy
I know Godwin is a very good player, but he had several unlikely big plays for touchdowns early last year and now goes from one of the most fantasy friendly quarterbacks (downfield passer who throws interceptions and has to dig himself out of holes late) to an older quarterback who avoids interceptions and completes shorter passes to all of his targets and who has cratered the numbers of veteran receivers on plenty of occasions.
Brady was great for edelman and gronk when they were a1 and 1b on a team whose third best receiver was a running back, but sharing with Evans, gronk, howard, brate could mean some serious regression is coming.
I'm not saying he's worthless - I own him in one league and don't need him in any others. But I see him as a super risky pick at the top of the wr chart.
The upside is this - he had 86/1333/9 in 14 games on just 119 targets. If he got 150 targets like Edelman did last year and in some previous years, he could go off. Like edelman, he's a beast across the middle and has an even better catch percentage/drop rate. He's got the GOAT throwing to him, and with the exceptions of randy moss and gronk, brady has never been one to throw the kind of 50/50 jump balls where Evans excels. And Godwin has always had the pedigree, but excelled immediately when he got the role. Welker immediately excelled with Brady, too, even with Moss and Stallworth there. All of those are good things.
But three firsts (and a third) for a guy with such a wide variety of outcomes... seems ambitious.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
3 random 1sts I would agree. But with 1 of them guaranteed late and the other two likely late I would rather have the top 20 dynasty asset.bostonfred said:
When I look back at the history of guys in the 1.09 - 1.12 range in the link below there are definitely some good names mixed in but I think I'd rather have Godwin than pulling 3 random names off that list. I realize those 2021 picks aren't guaranteed late but I'm not enamored with the early look on the 2021 class anyway.
https://fantasydata.com/nfl/fantasy-football-rookie-adp-rankings
rockaction
Footballguy
I don't think he did. I've watched every touchdown from last year and the only one that sticks out is the one he scored in New Orleans. That won't be repeated. Here are all his touchdowns from 2019 for proof. I don't mean to nitpick, but this was a large part of your argument.bostonfred said:
https://youtu.be/JvS8U6ZA6lg
rockaction
Footballguy
I do not think I'd take Reagor and two firsts for Godwin.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
If you like drafting from the ### end of the first round three times to come up with value akin to a guy who was just the overall WR2, then go ahead.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I like Reagor in Philly and I believe the 2021 draft is 10 deep in WRs and there's Etienne and Hubbard. Plus, who's to say both the 1st would be late? Hell, we may not even have a season and leagues are already looking at other avenues for the 2021 draft.
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I-ROK
Footballguy
TB isn’t going to pass as much as they did last year, and I think that lead to unrealistic expectations for Godwin this year. He or Evans (or both) are going to have a slight let down this year.
I can see both sides. If I’m contending (which it seems this guy is), I would say this guy is making a good move, however I would have preferred two 1sts and a 2nd. He is buying him at his ceiling. For the seller, this is a great way to rebuild and load up on young talent
bostonfred
Footballguy
Fair. The 3 that stuck out to me were the one trailing 31-17 with seconds left in the 4th, the 80ish yard bomb with multiple broken tackles, and the last one where it somehow. The first one is the one I remember most as an owner because I won my game by that score. I feel like there's another long bomb that didnt go for a touchdown that was super fluky but I don't remember. I'm not saying that he will never have long touchdowns or make tough catches, just that it's tough to use 2019 as a baseline when he had some lucky plays and what may have been a more fantasy friendly situation.
I-ROK
Footballguy
If I am recalling correctly, he was pretty amazing after the catch and created a lot of his yardage
I-ROK
Footballguy
bostonfred
Footballguy
Definitely. And that is repeatable to some extent. You should expect good yac guys to get yac and he did. I am just wary of players like him and aj Brown who had some of those big plays and have it priced in to their value this year, and am always looking for guys like devin Singletary who got tackled inside the 5 on 5 plays where he had double digit yardage and also got vultured a lot last year. That doesn't mean that Singletary will get 5 more touchdowns next year and brown and godwin will both get fewer, it just means that Singletary's prices is probably lower than it should be and brown and Godwin are probably more expensive than they should be because they had positive variance.
Brown https://titansized.com/2020/06/29/reliving-and-ranking-every-aj-brown-rookie-year-touchdown/2/
Singletary https://youtu.be/ZD2T6pwfdZ0
barackdhouse
Footballguy
24 team PPR TE premium 2 copies of each player 11 starters QRRWWTFFFDK
I gave 1.12 OTC
I got Unicorn, Damien Harris, 2021 1st (playoff team)
I hold other late 1sts and early 2nds in this draft. Rebuilding. I took Dobbins at 1.06 but neither of Akers or Swift made it to 1.12 so I shipped it.
I gave 1.12 OTC
I got Unicorn, Damien Harris, 2021 1st (playoff team)
I hold other late 1sts and early 2nds in this draft. Rebuilding. I took Dobbins at 1.06 but neither of Akers or Swift made it to 1.12 so I shipped it.
rockaction
Footballguy
The above is all also fair and good points, too, IMHO. (The part about Godwin.)
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