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****OFFICIAL DYNASTY TRADES**** (25 Viewers)

You think Dez is more volatile that Demaryius? Romo should play at least 2-3 more years. I guess DT has done decent with Osweiller though.

Neither guy is at the top of my rankings anymore I suppose.

Even with Weeden and whoever else, I think Dez would have done 10x better with them if he was not hurt. He was rushed back, and barely a shell of himself physically. That won't be the case moving forward.

But back to the trade, I see Dez as being WAY more valuable than Martavius.

 
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Why is buck all of a sudden worth so much? Did forsett retire or something? Want he almost benched while forsett was hurt because of fumbles or something?

 
maf005 said:
Denver724 said:
kutta said:
Buck Allen

For

1.07

12 team PPR
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Wow. That is a decent return for Allen.
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robbery is the more apt word choice here
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Well, I'm on the side receiving Allen. I agree it's an overpay, but I don't think it's "robbery."

I am weak at RB and have tons of picks this year (1.01 and 3 other round 1 picks, plus lots in the other rounds). From week 11 (when Forsett got hurt) to week 17, Allen was the #3 RB in my PPR league. Forsett will be 31 next year, and I don't see him taking back the starting job. I am pretty high on Allen because I really like RB's that catch the ball (he had 45 catches over the last 7 weeks, which extrapoloates to 102 catches over 16 games). So granted, I am probably higher on him than most, but I'd rather take a chance on a guy who's shown he can really do it, even in a small sample size, than a complete unknown.

 
kutta said:
maf005 said:
Denver724 said:
kutta said:
Buck Allen

For

1.07

12 team PPR
Click to expand...
Wow. That is a decent return for Allen.
Click to expand...
robbery is the more apt word choice here
Click to expand...
Well, I'm on the side receiving Allen. I agree it's an overpay, but I don't think it's "robbery."

I am weak at RB and have tons of picks this year (1.01 and 3 other round 1 picks, plus lots in the other rounds). From week 11 (when Forsett got hurt) to week 17, Allen was the #3 RB in my PPR league. Forsett will be 31 next year, and I don't see him taking back the starting job. I am pretty high on Allen because I really like RB's that catch the ball (he had 45 catches over the last 7 weeks, which extrapoloates to 102 catches over 16 games). So granted, I am probably higher on him than most, but I'd rather take a chance on a guy who's shown he can really do it, even in a small sample size, than a complete unknown.
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You got robbed.

 
kutta said:
maf005 said:
Denver724 said:
kutta said:
Buck Allen

For

1.07

12 team PPR
Click to expand...
Wow. That is a decent return for Allen.
Click to expand...
robbery is the more apt word choice here
Click to expand...
Well, I'm on the side receiving Allen. I agree it's an overpay, but I don't think it's "robbery."

I am weak at RB and have tons of picks this year (1.01 and 3 other round 1 picks, plus lots in the other rounds). From week 11 (when Forsett got hurt) to week 17, Allen was the #3 RB in my PPR league. Forsett will be 31 next year, and I don't see him taking back the starting job. I am pretty high on Allen because I really like RB's that catch the ball (he had 45 catches over the last 7 weeks, which extrapoloates to 102 catches over 16 games). So granted, I am probably higher on him than most, but I'd rather take a chance on a guy who's shown he can really do it, even in a small sample size, than a complete unknown.
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Say what you want about the problem with taking out the one huge game, but he was REALLY mediocre outside of Week 13 against Miami. After that game, he was benched for fumbling in Week 15.

He -could- be the starter in Baltimore next season, but I put that at about 1/4 right now. 50% it's Forsett (if/when healthy) and 25% a signee/draft pick.

 
tangfoot said:
kutta said:
maf005 said:
Denver724 said:
kutta said:
Buck Allen

For

1.07

12 team PPR
Click to expand...
Wow. That is a decent return for Allen.
Click to expand...
robbery is the more apt word choice here
Click to expand...
Well, I'm on the side receiving Allen. I agree it's an overpay, but I don't think it's "robbery."I am weak at RB and have tons of picks this year (1.01 and 3 other round 1 picks, plus lots in the other rounds). From week 11 (when Forsett got hurt) to week 17, Allen was the #3 RB in my PPR league. Forsett will be 31 next year, and I don't see him taking back the starting job. I am pretty high on Allen because I really like RB's that catch the ball (he had 45 catches over the last 7 weeks, which extrapoloates to 102 catches over 16 games). So granted, I am probably higher on him than most, but I'd rather take a chance on a guy who's shown he can really do it, even in a small sample size, than a complete unknown.
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Say what you want about the problem with taking out the one huge game, but he was REALLY mediocre outside of Week 13 against Miami. After that game, he was benched for fumbling in Week 15.

He -could- be the starter in Baltimore next season, but I put that at about 1/4 right now. 50% it's Forsett (if/when healthy) and 25% a signee/draft pick.
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I wouldn't trade 1.07 for him, but it's wrong to say he was mediocre outside of week 13. He started week 16 and played very well against a tough Steelers defense. He was also more effective in the passing game than Forsett, despite the players around Forsett being a good deal better. I would bet on him starting over any of the current RBs on the roster (although i agree there's a good chance they bring in a starter).

 
Yea I retract my "robbery" statement. Allen is probably worth around the 2.01 - 2.05 in my opinion. 5 spots in a rookie draft (outside of the top 3) aren't enough to claim someone got hosed in a trade

 
maf005 said:
Yea I retract my "robbery" statement. Allen is probably worth around the 2.01 - 2.05 in my opinion. 5 spots in a rookie draft (outside of the top 3) aren't enough to claim someone got hosed in a trade
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I definitely think it is robbery. The Buck Allens of the world are the guys I try and move every single time. The marginal talents who come in fresh the 2nd half of the year and provide volume points on a bad team.

Pick 7??? Bye bye, robbery

 
:shrug:

Different strokes for different folks. I happen to think he's set up very nicely in Baltimore. Time will tell.

I have enough draft lottery tickets. I'll take a chance on a guy who was the third ranked RB from the day he started playing any day of the week.

 
This is probably blasphemy, but outside of being on a way better offense and a couple fumbles in one game, what did David Johnson do that Allen didn't?

 
jtd13 said:
This is probably blasphemy, but outside of being on a way better offense and a couple fumbles in one game, what did David Johnson do that Allen didn't?
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Play better and look better :shrug:

I am not nearly as high on Johnson as a lot of people, but I still saw a pretty clear difference between these two players.

 
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Ya, that falls into that James white vs Dion Lewis debate. Just look at them both play and you'll know who is better. (I'm an Allen owner and I probably give Allen and the 1.07 for Johnson)

 
FreshiZ said:
Ya, that falls into that James white vs Dion Lewis debate. Just look at them both play and you'll know who is better. (I'm an Allen owner and I probably give Allen and the 1.07 for Johnson)
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Unfortunately nobody that owns Johnson would even consider that :no:

 
jtd13 said:
This is probably blasphemy, but outside of being on a way better offense and a couple fumbles in one game, what did David Johnson do that Allen didn't?
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Well in the beginning of the year when old man Arians wouldnt concede that he was the best back on the roster, he ended up with like 6-8 tds on like 40 touches. Not just offensive touches, returns too. Hes a playmaker. Allen isnt chopped liver, he is younger, and shows promise, but lets not pretend they were anywhere near the same level of production or talent this year

 
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ghostguy123 said:
jtd13 said:
This is probably blasphemy, but outside of being on a way better offense and a couple fumbles in one game, what did David Johnson do that Allen didn't?
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Play better and look better :shrug:

I am not nearly as high on Johnson as a lot of people, but I still saw a pretty clear difference between these two players.
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Anybody is going to look better playing with Carson Palmer, Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, and John Brown compared to Jimmy Clausen, Kamar Aiken, Chris Givens, and... Whoever the 3rd WR on BAL was by week 12. I'm not saying Allen = Johnson, but I do think Allen would have put up much better numbers and looked better in Johnson's situation.ETA- Better than in Baltimore, not better than Johnson.

 
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I intended on adding a little commentary on the Allen trade I posted but had an emergency call come in from work and had to run out. The Allen and late picks for 2.03 that i listed was done during the fantasy playoffs.

I only posted it after i saw his to show what people were asking for Allen. I thought a mid second was fair with a few later picks coming back for IDP purposes but the main reason I took the deal was that we were playing for draft position and I was near the bottom of those who didn't make the playoffs and I needed another rb to plug in. It actually helped bump me up to third pick so it was a no-brainer for me at the time.

I took over a depleted team last year with Russel Wilson, L. Murray and R. Cobb the only assets and he had traded away his 1-3rd round picks so the late picks will help me fill out my taxi squad.

As to the argument of his value I think a mid 2nd is fair. I wouldn't give up a first for him personally but I would put him in with the top 10 rb's prospects that are in this years draft.

 
If a running back came out in this draft with a chance but no guarantee to be the starter in Baltimore, and had already had some NFL success to boot, he'd be an easy pick in the second round and not a bad pick in the late first.

For my money I don't pay a first for him until after the NFL draft because I want to know if they take another back and I don't think his price should go up much from 1.7, but I don't think Baltimore is looking rb with all the holes on that team and certainty cuts both ways. You might not be able to get him for 1.7 if the Ravens start talking him up as their starter.

 
jtd13 said:
ghostguy123 said:
jtd13 said:
This is probably blasphemy, but outside of being on a way better offense and a couple fumbles in one game, what did David Johnson do that Allen didn't?
Click to expand...
Play better and look better :shrug:

I am not nearly as high on Johnson as a lot of people, but I still saw a pretty clear difference between these two players.
Click to expand...
Anybody is going to look better playing with Carson Palmer, Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, and John Brown compared to Jimmy Clausen, Kamar Aiken, Chris Givens, and... Whoever the 3rd WR on BAL was by week 12. I'm not saying Allen = Johnson, but I do think Allen would have put up much better numbers and looked better in Johnson's situation.ETA- Better than in Baltimore, not better than Johnson.
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I dont think explaining their respective situations (which we are all aware of) is going to change anyones opinion. If you wanna like the Allen side, fine. But the fact is, trading a good player in a great situation for a player that is good but not in a great situation but you really really like him, is sill not an ideal way to put together a winning squad

 
Pwingles said:
jtd13 said:
ghostguy123 said:
jtd13 said:
This is probably blasphemy, but outside of being on a way better offense and a couple fumbles in one game, what did David Johnson do that Allen didn't?
Click to expand...
Play better and look better :shrug:

I am not nearly as high on Johnson as a lot of people, but I still saw a pretty clear difference between these two players.
Click to expand...
Anybody is going to look better playing with Carson Palmer, Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, and John Brown compared to Jimmy Clausen, Kamar Aiken, Chris Givens, and... Whoever the 3rd WR on BAL was by week 12. I'm not saying Allen = Johnson, but I do think Allen would have put up much better numbers and looked better in Johnson's situation.ETA- Better than in Baltimore, not better than Johnson.
Click to expand...
I dont think explaining their respective situations (which we are all aware of) is going to change anyones opinion. If you wanna like the Allen side, fine. But the fact is, trading a good player in a great situation for a player that is good but not in a great situation but you really really like him, is sill not an ideal way to put together a winning squad
Click to expand...
I'm not sure who or what you're talking about here.

 
Pwingles said:
jtd13 said:
ghostguy123 said:
jtd13 said:
This is probably blasphemy, but outside of being on a way better offense and a couple fumbles in one game, what did David Johnson do that Allen didn't?
Click to expand...
Play better and look better :shrug:

I am not nearly as high on Johnson as a lot of people, but I still saw a pretty clear difference between these two players.
Click to expand...
Anybody is going to look better playing with Carson Palmer, Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, and John Brown compared to Jimmy Clausen, Kamar Aiken, Chris Givens, and... Whoever the 3rd WR on BAL was by week 12. I'm not saying Allen = Johnson, but I do think Allen would have put up much better numbers and looked better in Johnson's situation.ETA- Better than in Baltimore, not better than Johnson.
Click to expand...
I dont think explaining their respective situations (which we are all aware of) is going to change anyones opinion. If you wanna like the Allen side, fine. But the fact is, trading a good player in a great situation for a player that is good but not in a great situation but you really really like him, is sill not an ideal way to put together a winning squad
Click to expand...
I've already stated that I prefer either Johnson or 1.07 to Allen, I was just surprised that people were dumping on Allen so easily when DJ is the best thing since sliced bread. And it's not as if Allen's situation won't change, either. We already know that he's getting Flacco, Smith, and Perriman back next year.Overall, I agree with bostonfred and others. High-mid 2nd makes sense right now. I'd probably trade him for 1.12 as an owner. If they dont sign a big name or draft a guy early, I'd want at least 1.07, but it's a risk trading that for him now.

 
jtd13 said:
Pwingles said:
jtd13 said:
ghostguy123 said:
jtd13 said:
This is probably blasphemy, but outside of being on a way better offense and a couple fumbles in one game, what did David Johnson do that Allen didn't?
Click to expand...
Play better and look better :shrug:

I am not nearly as high on Johnson as a lot of people, but I still saw a pretty clear difference between these two players.
Click to expand...
Anybody is going to look better playing with Carson Palmer, Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, and John Brown compared to Jimmy Clausen, Kamar Aiken, Chris Givens, and... Whoever the 3rd WR on BAL was by week 12. I'm not saying Allen = Johnson, but I do think Allen would have put up much better numbers and looked better in Johnson's situation.ETA- Better than in Baltimore, not better than Johnson.
Click to expand...
I dont think explaining their respective situations (which we are all aware of) is going to change anyones opinion. If you wanna like the Allen side, fine. But the fact is, trading a good player in a great situation for a player that is good but not in a great situation but you really really like him, is sill not an ideal way to put together a winning squad
Click to expand...
I've already stated that I prefer either Johnson or 1.07 to Allen, I was just surprised that people were dumping on Allen so easily when DJ is the best thing since sliced bread. And it's not as if Allen's situation won't change, either. We already know that he's getting Flacco, Smith, and Perriman back next year.Overall, I agree with bostonfred and others. High-mid 2nd makes sense right now. I'd probably trade him for 1.12 as an owner. If they dont sign a big name or draft a guy early, I'd want at least 1.07, but it's a risk trading that for him now.
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Allen is nothing like Johnson, that's fairly evident in both the eyeball and stat test. Only thing similar about them both is they were both rookies who catch the ball well so not sure why Johnson is even being invoked here.

Allen did not play very well, average at best, he just caught a bunch of dump offs and had good fantasy success. That's very different than actually looking and playing well.

Not sure how you can say Allen's situation is unchanged when he was only on the field so much in the first place because the two RB's ahead of him on the depth chart were injured.

And lastly the difference between pick 1.7 and a 2.1 is often huge, seems to be getting thrown around in here by some people like it's only 5 picks so what's the big deal? In a rookie draft that's often a massive difference.

And all that being said I still don't think Allen is worth 2.1 right now.

I would however agree that if you actually wanted to pay 1.7 for Allen, the time to do it would be if he survived FA and the draft and only had to battle the two guys who were ahead of him on the depth chart before they got hurt.

 
menobrown said:
jtd13 said:
Pwingles said:
jtd13 said:
ghostguy123 said:
jtd13 said:
This is probably blasphemy, but outside of being on a way better offense and a couple fumbles in one game, what did David Johnson do that Allen didn't?
Click to expand...
Play better and look better :shrug:

I am not nearly as high on Johnson as a lot of people, but I still saw a pretty clear difference between these two players.
Click to expand...
Anybody is going to look better playing with Carson Palmer, Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, and John Brown compared to Jimmy Clausen, Kamar Aiken, Chris Givens, and... Whoever the 3rd WR on BAL was by week 12. I'm not saying Allen = Johnson, but I do think Allen would have put up much better numbers and looked better in Johnson's situation.ETA- Better than in Baltimore, not better than Johnson.
Click to expand...
I dont think explaining their respective situations (which we are all aware of) is going to change anyones opinion. If you wanna like the Allen side, fine. But the fact is, trading a good player in a great situation for a player that is good but not in a great situation but you really really like him, is sill not an ideal way to put together a winning squad
Click to expand...
I've already stated that I prefer either Johnson or 1.07 to Allen, I was just surprised that people were dumping on Allen so easily when DJ is the best thing since sliced bread. And it's not as if Allen's situation won't change, either. We already know that he's getting Flacco, Smith, and Perriman back next year.Overall, I agree with bostonfred and others. High-mid 2nd makes sense right now. I'd probably trade him for 1.12 as an owner. If they dont sign a big name or draft a guy early, I'd want at least 1.07, but it's a risk trading that for him now.
Click to expand...
Allen is nothing like Johnson, that's fairly evident in both the eyeball and stat test. Only thing similar about them both is they were both rookies who catch the ball well so not sure why Johnson is even being invoked here.

Allen did not play very well, average at best, he just caught a bunch of dump offs and had good fantasy success. That's very different than actually looking and playing well.

Not sure how you can say Allen's situation is unchanged when he was only on the field so much in the first place because the two RB's ahead of him on the depth chart were injured.

And lastly the difference between pick 1.7 and a 2.1 is often huge, seems to be getting thrown around in here by some people like it's only 5 picks so what's the big deal? In a rookie draft that's often a massive difference.

And all that being said I still don't think Allen is worth 2.1 right now.

I would however agree that if you actually wanted to pay 1.7 for Allen, the time to do it would be if he survived FA and the draft and only had to battle the two guys who were ahead of him on the depth chart before they got hurt.
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It may feel like it during a rookie draft but I'm not sure the numbers tell the same story. 1.07 generally gets you a 3rd or 4th tier prospect for that year, which is close to what you get at the 1.12.

 
menobrown said:
I would however agree that if you actually wanted to pay 1.7 for Allen, the time to do it would be if he survived FA and the draft and only had to battle the two guys who were ahead of him on the depth chart before they got hurt.
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If this was August and Allen was slated to be the starter week 1, I would still say pick 7 is an overpay, and I dont even think this draft is that great.

Allen is JAG. Period.

 
maf005 said:
It may feel like it during a rookie draft but I'm not sure the numbers tell the same story. 1.07 generally gets you a 3rd or 4th tier prospect for that year, which is close to what you get at the 1.12.
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I would say pick 7 is a HUGE HUGE HUGE upgrade over pick 12 or 13 the vast majority of the time

 
ghostguy123 said:
maf005 said:
It may feel like it during a rookie draft but I'm not sure the numbers tell the same story. 1.07 generally gets you a 3rd or 4th tier prospect for that year, which is close to what you get at the 1.12.
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I would say pick 7 is a HUGE HUGE HUGE upgrade over pick 12 or 13 the vast majority of the time
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You could be right but my gut says otherwise. Do you know of a source for historical rookie draft adp?

 
maf005 said:
ghostguy123 said:
maf005 said:
It may feel like it during a rookie draft but I'm not sure the numbers tell the same story. 1.07 generally gets you a 3rd or 4th tier prospect for that year, which is close to what you get at the 1.12.
Click to expand...
I would say pick 7 is a HUGE HUGE HUGE upgrade over pick 12 or 13 the vast majority of the time
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You could be right but my gut says otherwise. Do you know of a source for historical rookie draft adp?
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It isn't the player you can select at 1.07 even.

It is how much more valuable a "mid-1st" is than a late 1st early 2nd. In trade value it is nearly 2 1.12's and it goes alot further in trades for players too. It is also much easier to move up to the early picks with it.

I think Buck Allen/1.12 for 1.07 is probably more even

 
maxhyde said:
maf005 said:
ghostguy123 said:
maf005 said:
It may feel like it during a rookie draft but I'm not sure the numbers tell the same story. 1.07 generally gets you a 3rd or 4th tier prospect for that year, which is close to what you get at the 1.12.
Click to expand...
I would say pick 7 is a HUGE HUGE HUGE upgrade over pick 12 or 13 the vast majority of the time
Click to expand...
You could be right but my gut says otherwise. Do you know of a source for historical rookie draft adp?
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It isn't the player you can select at 1.07 even.

It is how much more valuable a "mid-1st" is than a late 1st early 2nd. In trade value it is nearly 2 1.12's and it goes alot further in trades for players too. It is also much easier to move up to the early picks with it.

I think Buck Allen/1.12 for 1.07 is probably more even
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I get that but my point is more that we're possibly misvaluing these picks. You're right that there absolutely is a significant difference in value between the 2,01 and 1.07 but do player outcomes really justify it? That's what I'm questioning and my intuition says the value gap isn't justified. Open to being wrong though

 
maf005 said:
maxhyde said:
maf005 said:
ghostguy123 said:
maf005 said:
It may feel like it during a rookie draft but I'm not sure the numbers tell the same story. 1.07 generally gets you a 3rd or 4th tier prospect for that year, which is close to what you get at the 1.12.
Click to expand...
I would say pick 7 is a HUGE HUGE HUGE upgrade over pick 12 or 13 the vast majority of the time
Click to expand...
You could be right but my gut says otherwise. Do you know of a source for historical rookie draft adp?
Click to expand...
It isn't the player you can select at 1.07 even.It is how much more valuable a "mid-1st" is than a late 1st early 2nd. In trade value it is nearly 2 1.12's and it goes alot further in trades for players too. It is also much easier to move up to the early picks with it.

I think Buck Allen/1.12 for 1.07 is probably more even
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I get that but my point is more that we're possibly misvaluing these picks. You're right that there absolutely is a significant difference in value between the 2,01 and 1.07 but do player outcomes really justify it? That's what I'm questioning and my intuition says the value gap isn't justified. Open to being wrong though
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I totally agree. These are guys who haven't played a down in the NFL yet. To say there is a "HUGE HUGE HUGE" gap between those 5 draft spots is borderline crazy.
 
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ghostguy123 said:
Yes pick 7 is worth a lot more in both trade value and actual value.
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I think you're wrong. I bet if we look at all the players drafted from 1.07 to 2.07 in the last five years we would have a hard time guessing who was drafted where. If what you say is true, it should be simple to tell based upon their NFL stats.I'm not at a computer, but I'll check out some data when I am.

 
kutta said:
ghostguy123 said:
Yes pick 7 is worth a lot more in both trade value and actual value.
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I think you're wrong. I bet if we look at all the players drafted from 1.07 to 2.07 in the last five years we would have a hard time guessing who was drafted where. If what you say is true, it should be simple to tell based upon their NFL stats.I'm not at a computer, but I'll check out some data when I am.
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Yep. I just looked at the last few years. You are WAY over estimating the value of the picks.
 
kutta said:
kutta said:
ghostguy123 said:
Yes pick 7 is worth a lot more in both trade value and actual value.
Click to expand...
I think you're wrong. I bet if we look at all the players drafted from 1.07 to 2.07 in the last five years we would have a hard time guessing who was drafted where. If what you say is true, it should be simple to tell based upon their NFL stats.I'm not at a computer, but I'll check out some data when I am.
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Yep. I just looked at the last few years. You are WAY over estimating the value of the picks.
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No, you are looking at this in hindsight which is completely backwards.The question isn't "can you potentially find more value 12 picks after 1.07", the question is "what has more value going into the draft, 1.07 or anything after it?"

 
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tangfoot said:
kutta said:
kutta said:
ghostguy123 said:
Yes pick 7 is worth a lot more in both trade value and actual value.
Click to expand...
I think you're wrong. I bet if we look at all the players drafted from 1.07 to 2.07 in the last five years we would have a hard time guessing who was drafted where. If what you say is true, it should be simple to tell based upon their NFL stats.I'm not at a computer, but I'll check out some data when I am.
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Yep. I just looked at the last few years. You are WAY over estimating the value of the picks.
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No, you are looking at this in hindsight which is completely backwards.The question isn't "can you potentially find more value 12 picks after 1.07", the question is "what has more value going into the draft, 1.07 or anything after it?"
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No. All we have is hindsight.In order to determine if pick 16.01 in a redraft had more value than 16.12, we would go back and look at as much historical data as we could and we would find the difference is negligible.

If we can't look at historical data, how would we determine how much value there is in the pick difference? Of course 1.07 is more valuable than 2.07. It's just not a "HUGE HUGE HUGE" difference as was stated above.

 
kutta said:
kutta said:
ghostguy123 said:
Yes pick 7 is worth a lot more in both trade value and actual value.
Click to expand...
I think you're wrong. I bet if we look at all the players drafted from 1.07 to 2.07 in the last five years we would have a hard time guessing who was drafted where. If what you say is true, it should be simple to tell based upon their NFL stats.I'm not at a computer, but I'll check out some data when I am.
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Yep. I just looked at the last few years. You are WAY over estimating the value of the picks.
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Not nearly as much as whoever traded pick 7 for Buck Allen is WAY overestimating his ability and his future in this league.

 
And I am not sure how far back you want to go with historical data, but probably not more than 10 years or so. Maybe not even that far, since the boom of information for the average fantasy fan hadn't happened yet.

Also, it matters WHEN drafts are being help. A May draft looks a lot different than an early September draft.

Either way, yes, pick 7 is worth WAY WAY WAY more than pick 13. Double. I will pay picks 13 and 14 for pick 7 every year without hesitation, even this year in a draft I am not high on.

If you don't trust your drafting ability, I can see preferring 13 and 14.

Pick 7 is also a much better trade chip the vast majority of the time than picks 13/14 combined, let alone just pick 13.

 
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ghostguy123 said:
And I am not sure how far back you want to go with historical data, but probably not more than 10 years or so. Maybe not even that far, since the boom of information for the average fantasy fan hadn't happened yet.

Also, it matters WHEN drafts are being help. A May draft looks a lot different than an early September draft.

Either way, yes, pick 7 is worth WAY WAY WAY more than pick 13. Double. I will pay picks 13 and 14 for pick 7 every year without hesitation, even this year in a draft I am not high on.

If you don't trust your drafting ability, I can see preferring 13 and 14.

Pick 7 is also a much better trade chip the vast majority of the time than picks 13/14 combined, let alone just pick 13.
Click to expand...
I would give my round 15 and 16 pick in a redraft for a round 14 pick. Does that mean the round 14 pick is WAY more valuable than those picks? No, of course not. The player you get in 14 has a very very small chance of performing better than the player in 15. It's very similar with these late first/early second rookie picks. Your chance of hitting is small, and it always amazes me how people put so much value on some of these picks.If we were talking a top 3 pick, sure, I'd agree. But we aren't.

 
Let's quantify this a little bit, shall we? 1.07 vs. 2.07 value. I went back to some recent rookie ADP data, culled out the IDPs, and compared the 6-8th (1.6-1.8) player drafted against the 18th-20th (2.6-2.8) player drafted. Here are some examples:





2009

Jeremy Maclin, Shonn Greene, Percy Harvin

vs.

Glen Coffee, James Davis, Rashad Jennings

2010

Demaryius Thomas, Sam Bradford, Montario Hardesty

vs.

Tim Tebow, Colt McCoy, Aaron Hernandez

2011

Ryan Williams, Greg Little, Mikel Leshoure

vs.

Leonard Hankerson, Christian Ponder, Andy Dalton

2012

David Wilson, Michael Floyd, Kendall Wright

vs.

LaMichael James, Mohamed Sanu, Brandon Weeden

Except for the fantasy wasteland that was 2011, looks like a clear value advantage to picking from the earlier set of names. Roughly 2-of-3 chance of getting a serviceable fantasy asset around 1.7, compared to sub-1-of-3 prospects from the 2.7 range.

Is this difference worth Buck Allen? If you think Allen looked bad this season and is likely to be little more than a complimentary piece in Baltimore, absolutely. I think the debate over relative value of picks obscures what is really a deep divide over Allen's longterm value.

 
Arodin said:
Let's quantify this a little bit, shall we? 1.07 vs. 2.07 value. I went back to some recent rookie ADP data, culled out the IDPs, and compared the 6-8th (1.6-1.8) player drafted against the 18th-20th (2.6-2.8) player drafted. Here are some examples:





2009

Jeremy Maclin, Shonn Greene, Percy Harvin

vs.

Glen Coffee, James Davis, Rashad Jennings

2010

Demaryius Thomas, Sam Bradford, Montario Hardesty

vs.

Tim Tebow, Colt McCoy, Aaron Hernandez

2011

Ryan Williams, Greg Little, Mikel Leshoure

vs.

Leonard Hankerson, Christian Ponder, Andy Dalton

2012

David Wilson, Michael Floyd, Kendall Wright

vs.

LaMichael James, Mohamed Sanu, Brandon Weeden

Except for the fantasy wasteland that was 2011, looks like a clear value advantage to picking from the earlier set of names. Roughly 2-of-3 chance of getting a serviceable fantasy asset around 1.7, compared to sub-1-of-3 prospects from the 2.7 range.

Is this difference worth Buck Allen? If you think Allen looked bad this season and is likely to be little more than a complimentary piece in Baltimore, absolutely. I think the debate over relative value of picks obscures what is really a deep divide over Allen's longterm value.
Click to expand...
Except the claim was 1.12 vs. 1.07.And, the only guy of any value that could be had at 1.07 in your data for those years is Floyd and maybe Jennings? Point made. It's even worse with the data I looked at.

 
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Couple years ago its guys like freeman and beckham vs Marquis Lee and Terrance West, but meh, why look at that.

Bottom line, Allen is a dud moving forward. Coulda/shoulda done much better with pick 7.

 
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