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****OFFICIAL 2021 OFF- SEASON DYNASTY TRADES****


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1 minute ago, barackdhouse said:

That future 1st should be able to accomplish this or go a really long way towards it. The list of vet RBs I would take over 1.02 is pretty small but notable. Those guys aren't going for the 1.02 though, so who would you be buying? A lesser vet that still holds some value like Zeke? Maybe. If I had WR depth this would be a slam dunk trade for me.

For me as a Brown owner it is an easy no...unless you nail both those picks you have given up one of the top assets in all of fantasy...if I am that loaded at WR I will deal one of the other guys to fix my RB position.

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No, they won't accept

I don't know why so many people are saying that this is a fair return (despite preferring CMC as they should). It isn't. This is a fraction of what it should cost for a guy like CMC, either that or th

You mean it went down in a league you used to be in??  I’d go ful Vontae Davis on that league asap 

3 minutes ago, Boston said:

For me as a Brown owner it is an easy no...unless you nail both those picks you have given up one of the top assets in all of fantasy...if I am that loaded at WR I will deal one of the other guys to fix my RB position.

But just one of those picks could equal or surpass AJB. I'm just not seeing eye to eye on notion you need to nail them both.

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AJ Brown is one of the best players in the NFL.

In PPR fantasy last year, with ELEVEN touchdowns, he was around the 13th best receiver.

That's because he plays for the Titans and will continue to for a long long time.

I would take the two picks in this trade.

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28 minutes ago, menobrown said:

But just one of those picks could equal or surpass AJB. I'm just not seeing eye to eye on notion you need to nail them both.

Could is the key word.  If they surpass AJB, it won't likely be by much.  Too much risk for me.

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Just now, Blick said:

Could is the key word.  If they surpass AJB, it won't likely be by much.  Too much risk for me.

Sure a lot of things could happen but my main point is you don't have to hit both picks. To me this is exactly the kind of reward that justifies the risk, and to me the risk is not that high because while AJB may be one of the best young WR's in the game he's pretty far from some type of league winner.

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When I look at trades, I'm keeping an eye on what it does to my starting roster. Others feel like they "win" the trade if they get the better player.

If I believe that I can improve on Player X by more than I might lose by trading Brown for the 1.2 then I'll do the deal.

It has a lot to do with risk tolerance too. The key word above is "believe". IOW how strong is my belief. So the equation looks like this in my head:

If

   Belief(1.02 + 2022 1st) > AJ Brown + Player X

Then

   Make the trade

End-if

And since I know the value of 1.2 equals Chase or Harris, this looks like something I'd do.

Edited by Andy Dufresne
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38 minutes ago, menobrown said:

But just one of those picks could equal or surpass AJB. I'm just not seeing eye to eye on notion you need to nail them both.

My point is the chance of whoever is selected at either pick surpassing AJB as a Dynasty asset is very slim...could the pick turn into a CMAC?  Sure, but the odds are very much in favor of that not happening...that is why when I look at this deal I feel hitting on both picks is the likely path to success...my overall point is I just don't see the need to take the risk for how I value AJB...now, if you are not that high on him than this deal makes far more sense.

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9 minutes ago, menobrown said:

Sure a lot of things could happen but my main point is you don't have to hit both picks. To me this is exactly the kind of reward that justifies the risk, and to me the risk is not that high because while AJB may be one of the best young WR's in the game he's pretty far from some type of league winner.

I guess it comes down to current roster construction and risk tolerance.  Maybe its just that I've been burned plenty by "can't miss prospects" that I'd rather take the sure thing.  Especially if the sure thing is a 23 year old stud.  Now if the 22 1st ends up top 1-3, I'd see this as a win.

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14 hours ago, DropKick said:

I'd reverse them if they even sniffed of imbalance.

Couldn’t disagree more. Just go back to last year’s thread to see how flawed this line of thought is. I am guessing over half the trades that are thought of as imbalanced actually end up a good deal for team that the community thinks got fleeced.

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Glad my AJB trade generated so much debate haha. For what it’s worth, I also had 1.01, and felt that my team needed a true WR1, which led to my deciding to make the trade. Appreciate all the thoughts!

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9 minutes ago, Boston said:

My point is the chance of whoever is selected at either pick surpassing AJB as a Dynasty asset is very slim...

Not at 1.02 it isn't. The future 1st is thinner but still decent. I think the word 'slim' is doing a lot of heavy lifting when we consider top WR/RB on the board over the years. I think the odds are quite good that the 1.02 will meet AJ Brown as a dynasty asset. Exceed? Might be asking a lot. The future 1st and if there is a need at RB, makes this easy. If I didn't have a need at RB I would have a hard time moving Brown for this. I don't think it is crazy to prefer the Brown side but I don't think the risk of the 1.02 should be much of a factor in it.

 

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2 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

Oh God I just realized it is SF as well

I missed that as well...that would change things for me (i.e. if you were in a bad QB spot with your team) but that doesn't appear to be the case with this actual deal.

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2 hours ago, Boston said:

Interesting deal...as an AJ Brown owner I would pass, it's not worth the risk...just looking at this deal (i.e. not future deals based off of obtaining those picks), for this deal to make sense you need to absolutely hit on both picks (and I mean hit big time)...for the 1.2 the best case scenario is probably equal to Brown so for this deal to make sense you have to hit on that pick and have that other #1 (which you don't know where it will land) be a decent amount better than the 2.12...so, while there is an path to this deal working out if it doesn't end in a best case scenario you have traded a 23 year stud that only appears to getting better...I just don't see the need to take that risk with such a valuable asset.

I mostly agree but you're not factoring in any of the risk with AJ Brown here.  He's a great player but he's already valued like a top 3 fantasy WR even though he's yet to put up numbers anywhere close to that.  Obviously that doesn't mean he never will but when a guy is being valued in a position that he's never come close to finishing in, that is risk.

The Tenn excuse is easy but Tannehill threw for 4000 yards and 33 TDs last year.  How much better do we think that is going to get in the near future in Tenn?  

I love AJB and have him valued super highly but we have to acknowledge that there is risk in him never taking that next step to being a truly elite WR.  He's not a super high volume guy like Hopkins or Diggs so he's probably not going to get his points with 120 receptions, which means to be an elite top 3 WR he's gotta put up yardage/TD numbers like Tyreek Hill and needless to say there are fewer yards and TDs to go around in his offense than Hill's.

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2 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

Oh God I just realized it is SF as well

Exactly and he has 1.1.  Getting Lawrence and your choice of Harris and Smith along with getting a pick next year that could end up anywhere is worth it in my opinion.  Especially since if playing for the Titans will keep Brown from ever being a top 3 WR.

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38 minutes ago, Boston said:

My point is the chance of whoever is selected at either pick surpassing AJB as a Dynasty asset is very slim...could the pick turn into a CMAC?  Sure, but the odds are very much in favor of that not happening...that is why when I look at this deal I feel hitting on both picks is the likely path to success...my overall point is I just don't see the need to take the risk for how I value AJB...now, if you are not that high on him than this deal makes far more sense.

Again the thing being overlooked here is 1.02 passing AJB in dynasty value because AJB's value potentially dips as well.

AJB is currently dynasty WR5 with a startup ADP of 2.01.

Just a mere 2 years ago in 2019 here are the dynasty WRs with startup ADP of 1.11-2.05

1.11 Mike Evans
1.12 Odell Beckham
2.1 JuJu Smith-Schuster
2.2 Amari Cooper
2.3 Chris Godwin
2.5 DJ Moore

ALL of them have dropped significantly in value since then.  And that's despite pretty much all of them having already put up a better season in the NFL than AJB has so far.

Now I feel that AJB is different than all those guys and will be a stud going forward, but the risk that is not the case is being SEVERELY downplayed here.  AJB is not a lock top 5 WR for the rest of his career.  He is very, very far from that at this point.

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2 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I mostly agree but you're not factoring in any of the risk with AJ Brown here.  He's a great player but he's already valued like a top 3 fantasy WR even though he's yet to put up numbers anywhere close to that.  Obviously that doesn't mean he never will but when a guy is being valued in a position that he's never come close to finishing in, that is risk.

The Tenn excuse is easy but Tannehill threw for 4000 yards and 33 TDs last year.  How much better do we think that is going to get in the near future in Tenn?  

I love AJB and have him valued super highly but we have to acknowledge that there is risk in him never taking that next step to being a truly elite WR.  He's not a super high volume guy like Hopkins or Diggs so he's probably not going to get his points with 120 receptions, which means to be an elite top 3 WR he's gotta put up yardage/TD numbers like Tyreek Hill and needless to say there are fewer yards and TDs to go around in his offense than Hill's.

I think his numbers take a nice leap this year...what he did last year was very impressive when you factor in he played a good portion of the year pretty banged up...IMO there was zero doubt he was hurting in a big way the last part of the year and the fact he gutted it out was a big plus for me...also, Davis and Jonnu will be gone and with their defensive holes it will be interesting to see what they add to the WR/TE units.

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2 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Again the thing being overlooked here is 1.02 passing AJB in dynasty value because AJB's value potentially dips as well.

AJB is currently dynasty WR5 with a startup ADP of 2.01.

Just a mere 2 years ago in 2019 here are the dynasty WRs with startup ADP of 1.11-2.05

1.11 Mike Evans
1.12 Odell Beckham
2.1 JuJu Smith-Schuster
2.2 Amari Cooper
2.3 Chris Godwin
2.5 DJ Moore

ALL of them have dropped significantly in value since then.  And that's despite pretty much all of them having already put up a better season in the NFL than AJB has so far.

Now I feel that AJB is different than all those guys and will be a stud going forward, but the risk that is not the case is being SEVERELY downplayed here.  AJB is not a lock top 5 WR for the rest of his career.  He is very, very far from that at this point.

I hear you but I would have made the proposed deal for all of those guys except Beckham at that point of their career...which does show the potential downside but IMO Beckham is due to the head not the talent and right now I don't see that with Brown...it appears I value AJB more than everyone else...I just see insane physical traits that are rarely seen.

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1 minute ago, Boston said:

I hear you but I would have made the proposed deal for all of those guys except Beckham at that point of their career...which does show the potential downside but IMO Beckham is due to the head not the talent and right now I don't see that with Brown...it appears I value AJB more than everyone else...I just see insane physical traits that are rarely seen.

He is a monster but is he ever going to be Antonio Brown, D-Hop, Adams, Megatron, Hill type?  Especially in that offense?  I highly doubt it.  I wouldn't take just 1.2 for him straight up but another 1st for the last pick in the 2nd in a SF league makes it worth it for me.

Also, there is no way Tenn lets Davis & Smith walk and doesn't replace them with someone putting up stats so I doubt that affects him Brown much.

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6 minutes ago, Boston said:

I hear you but I would have made the proposed deal for all of those guys except Beckham at that point of their career...which does show the potential downside but IMO Beckham is due to the head not the talent and right now I don't see that with Brown...it appears I value AJB more than everyone else...I just see insane physical traits that are rarely seen.

I probably like AJB as much as you, and have him as a top 3 dynasty WR personally.  But I am just being realistic here.  The argument being presented is that he was a locked in stud and the only way 1.02 could end up more valuable than him is if the 1.02 became CMC.  That just isn't reality.  There are a lot of non-CMC rookies from the last few years that are worth more than JuJu or Godwin now, even though those guys a couple years ago were valued as highly as AJB is now.

If anything his lack of high reception volume makes him an even tougher guy to assume will be locked in as a top 3 guy because in the modern NFL most of the consistently top 3 fantasy WRs are 100+ catch guys.

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8 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Again the thing being overlooked here is 1.02 passing AJB in dynasty value because AJB's value potentially dips as well.

AJB is currently dynasty WR5 with a startup ADP of 2.01.

Just a mere 2 years ago in 2019 here are the dynasty WRs with startup ADP of 1.11-2.05

1.11 Mike Evans
1.12 Odell Beckham
2.1 JuJu Smith-Schuster
2.2 Amari Cooper
2.3 Chris Godwin
2.5 DJ Moore

ALL of them have dropped significantly in value since then.  And that's despite pretty much all of them having already put up a better season in the NFL than AJB has so far.

Now I feel that AJB is different than all those guys and will be a stud going forward, but the risk that is not the case is being SEVERELY downplayed here.  AJB is not a lock top 5 WR for the rest of his career.  He is very, very far from that at this point.

Understood, but we also need to look at the 1.02 pick over the last couple years.  Using Mike Tagliere (Fantasy Pros) as freely accessible, here are is rankings:

2020 - Johnathon Taylor (2020)

2019 - David Montgomery (2019)

2018 - Sony Michel (2018)

2017 - Leonard Fournette (2017)

 

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7 minutes ago, Blick said:

Understood, but we also need to look at the 1.02 pick over the last couple years.  Using Mike Tagliere (Fantasy Pros) as freely accessible, here are is rankings:

2020 - Johnathon Taylor (2020)

2019 - David Montgomery (2019)

2018 - Sony Michel (2018)

2017 - Leonard Fournette (2017)

 

Right, no doubt 1.02 has a lot of risk.  A lot more risk than AJB.  I just wanted to point out that AJB is not without (somewhat substantial) risk of his own that was being overlooked, and also that 1.02 certainly does not have to be a CMC level caliber player to necessarily be worth more than AJB 2 years from now.

People were grading the trade as if they went 10 years into the future and AJB was finishing up a career that mirrored Julio Jones.  But that is jumping way ahead.  For fantasy purposes AJB hasn't really even broken out as actually elite yet.

 

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22 minutes ago, Blick said:

Understood, but we also need to look at the 1.02 pick over the last couple years.  Using Mike Tagliere (Fantasy Pros) as freely accessible, here are is rankings:

2020 - Johnathon Taylor (2020)

2019 - David Montgomery (2019)

2018 - Sony Michel (2018)

2017 - Leonard Fournette (2017)

 

Bingo...that is exactly my fear...now if the other piece was a quality RB instead of a future pick I would like this deal far more for what the Owner is trying to accomplish (i.e. beefing up his RB unit). 

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9 minutes ago, Boston said:

Bingo...that is exactly my fear...now if the other piece was a quality RB instead of a future pick I would like this deal far more for what the Owner is trying to accomplish (i.e. beefing up his RB unit). 

If you are looking at SF rankings then 1.2 might be a better RB too than some of the ones listed.

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3 minutes ago, Jonesin For Some Football said:

If you are looking at SF rankings then 1.2 might be a better RB too than some of the ones listed.

I don't think there is any doubt that at 1.2 you will be getting a high-end RB prospect...worst case it is one of Harris, Etienne or Williams and not sure about that league but Lawrence in a lot SF or 2 QB leagues is too good to pass up at 1.1 so all three could be on the board...actually I think he has 1.1 as well so he is sitting real pretty.

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1 minute ago, Boston said:

I don't think there is any doubt that at 1.2 you will be getting a high-end RB prospect...worst case it is one of Harris, Etienne or Williams and not sure about that league but Lawrence in a lot SF or 2 QB leagues is too good to pass up at 1.1.

Ya so he is really getting the best non-QB prospect in the draft which is usually not a bust.  I think he said he has 1.1 too so he gets to take Lawrence and still get that piece.

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1 minute ago, jabarony said:

FFPC superflex. 

 

Team A gave 2022 1st & B. Jarwin. 

 

Team B gave M. Gordon, K. Golladay, & 2022 3rd. 

I'm not a fan of the 2022 class, especially at RB.  The QBs should be good however for superflex leagues.  In start 1QB leagues I'm not looking to obtain 2022 picks.  Now 2023 is a different story.....

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8 hours ago, barackdhouse said:

FFPC SuperFlex not involved

Team A gives Shenault, 2022 1st (looks late)

Team B gives Andrews, 2.06

Is FFPC 1.5 points or more for TEs? Otherwise someone overpaid.

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8 hours ago, barackdhouse said:

FFPC SuperFlex not involved

Team A gives Shenault, 2022 1st (looks late)

Team B gives Andrews, 2.06

Who does Team A currently have at TE?

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3 minutes ago, Helaire-ious said:

PPR

Team A gave Ridley & Burrow

Team B gave Cousins, James Robinson & G. Davis.

Team A really had nothing at RB & is loaded at WR. Other QB of note on that roster is Hurts.

That's the best Team A could get for Ridley? I'd take Ridley/Burrow quite handily. And I wouldn't have made this deal until after the draft.

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3 minutes ago, Helaire-ious said:

PPR

Team A gave Ridley & Burrow

Team B gave Cousins, James Robinson & G. Davis.

Team A really had nothing at RB & is loaded at WR. Other QB of note on that roster is Hurts.

 

 

I'll take Ridley and Burrow pretty easily here...Burrow is 9 years younger then Cousins so that is a very nice Dynasty upgrade right there...Ridley is a legit #1 and while I like Robinson a lot (and they play different positions) Ridley is a much safer player IMO...Davis is a solid prospect but for this deal to make sense that piece needed to be a lot stronger.

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2 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

That's the best Team A could get for Ridley? I'd take Ridley/Burrow quite handily. And I wouldn't have made this deal until after the draft.

Imagine how bad that deal looks if Philly does indeed draft a QB...ouch!

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12 team ppr - QB/2RB/3WR/TE/FL
 

Mims, Denzel NYJ WR

Shenault, Laviska JAC WR

Year 2021 Draft Pick 1.11

For

White, James NEP RB

Adams, Davante GBP WR

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34 minutes ago, Helaire-ious said:

PPR

Team A gave Ridley & Burrow

Team B gave Cousins, James Robinson & G. Davis.

Team A really had nothing at RB & is loaded at WR. Other QB of note on that roster is Hurts.

 

 

Yikes. Ridley by a landslide. 

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16 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

12 team ppr - QB/2RB/3WR/TE/FL
 

Mims, Denzel NYJ WR

Shenault, Laviska JAC WR

Year 2021 Draft Pick 1.11

For

White, James NEP RB

Adams, Davante GBP WR

Probably a little light for Adam’s, but it’s not that bad and could be a lot closer if Mims and Shenault both make leaps. 

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14 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

12 team ppr - QB/2RB/3WR/TE/FL
 

Mims, Denzel NYJ WR

Shenault, Laviska JAC WR

Year 2021 Draft Pick 1.11

For

White, James NEP RB

Adams, Davante GBP WR

That is an absolute steal for Adams...you gotta get way more than that...Mims and Shenault are quality prospects but I would be totally surprised if either comes close to being a #1 and while 1st round picks are always great assets to obtain this isn't even a high one so you are not in the stud zone...this deal make no sense at all to me, it's a ugly one. 

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38 minutes ago, Helaire-ious said:

PPR

Team A gave Ridley & Burrow

Team B gave Cousins, James Robinson & G. Davis.

Team A really had nothing at RB & is loaded at WR. Other QB of note on that roster is Hurts.

 

 

Ridley/Burrow side handily. Like Andy said, this one should happen after the draft. If the Jags spend big draft or FA capital on a RB, the return on Ridley/Burrow looks like scraps

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22 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

12 team ppr - QB/2RB/3WR/TE/FL
 

Mims, Denzel NYJ WR

Shenault, Laviska JAC WR

Year 2021 Draft Pick 1.11

For

White, James NEP RB

Adams, Davante GBP WR

Three quarters for a dollar. 

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18 minutes ago, Boston said:

That is an absolute steal for Adams...you gotta get way more than that...Mims and Shenault are quality prospects but I would be totally surprised if either comes close to being a #1 and while 1st round picks are always great assets to obtain this isn't even a high one so you are not in the stud zone...this deal make no sense at all to me, it's a ugly one. 

I can see it if one is high on Mims or Shenault, but I would not have done that if I owned Adams as I am not high on them

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