Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Lordy - unless I’m desperate for Lawrence, gimme the Gibson/Campbell side.
That makes me wonder if Team 2 couldn’t have just dealt that package for a good established QB.
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That makes me wonder if Team 2 couldn’t have just dealt that package for a good established QB.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Here is a good lesson in fantasy relations. You could have responded with something snarky because 2.09/future 2 is a pretty bad offer, and that may have put the guy off. Sometimes a bad starting offer is simply that and keeping that door open is always a good idea. Even if someone bombards you with stupid offers year after year they’re bound to send something stupid you actually like.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I see this all too often. Someone makes fairly frequent terrible offers, and then all of a sudden they make a terrible trade that is NOT in their favor.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
This is why I am gonna stay away from superflex. I assumed this was hugely lopsided in favor of the #1 pick.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I mean, yes - that 1.01 is valuable, especially in superflex. Not saying Lawrence isn’t valuable. Draft calc favors the Gibson side slightly in SF, but I feel like that’s besides the point.
The package offered is easily enough to get an established young QB. So unless one truly believes that Lawrence in JAX is the next Peyton Manning/Patrick Mahomes, why not just cut out the middle man & trade for the known quantity?
Sometimes I think dynasty owners would rather have 2 in the bush over 1 in-hand, as the old expression goes.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Apparently I must also value Gibson lower than most.
Does campbell have any real value? I must be out of the loop
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Some, yes, but Gibson is the main guy in this deal.
I’m also not as high on Gibson as many are. But he has an established value, so whatever my own value of him is becomes irrelevant.
The only thing that is relevant is someone is dealing a top x running back for a QB. And if we remove the allure of the sexy “can’t miss prospect” from the equation, it boils down to that.
Personally I’d float that package to the league & see if I could get a more established young QB.
But that’s more a personal preference. I don’t like investing in the Jags, I’m not sure what Urban will be able to achieve there & I think you could likely get a more established player on a more proven team/offense for Gibson.
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And if I’m trading the 1.01 in SF, I’ll need more than Gibson. I liked Campbell at one point but he’s nearly irrelevant to me now.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Takes 2 to tango. Who do you think you can get for gibby/Campbell? Honestly that seems cheap for 1.01, no way that happens after the nfl draft imo. There’s a lot you can do with 1.01 other than take Lawrence.
Who do you target with that package in SF though? NFL is a mix of old good qbs and a handful of good young qbs
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Yeah it's probably easier to deal pick 1 for a good established QB than gibson and campbell
10 team league may be a factor I suppose
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Hard to say. I’m more a bird in the hand guy though & there are a lot of questions around JAX, a team I’m loathe to invest in.
If there’s a Gibson fan in your league maybe you add a better player than Campbell & try for an even better QB.
I’d rather have a QB in a better situation if I’m paying a starting RB + X for it.
each to their own.
You may could deal that package for a good established OLDER QB. But you’re not coming close to a Kyler or Josh Allen. And if you think Lawrence could be in their caliber, making that move for the 1.01 is a no brainer.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Ah, I missed that it was 10 team. I assumed 12. You are probably correct that it’s a factor.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
But you could also add something other than Paris Campbell to go for a better younger quarterback. And you definitely touched on my point, which is that you have to believe. Thinking back on the history of the Jacksonville jaguars doesn’t doesn’t exactly bring “quarterback development“ to mind.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Good thing these trades are done via a computer, because I don't know how you would have been able to hide that look on your face.
True, but I’ll bet on Lawrence being on a different stratosphere talent-wise than the likes of Chad Henne, Blake Bortles and Gardner Minshew.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Team has a lot of holes, shaky OL and a coach who I’m not sure is well-suited to the NFL.
It could absolutely work out great and someone could end up with the next spectacular generational quarterback, but it’s not a lock.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Gibson could be worthless in a year or two for various reasons. He is no lock.
Lawrence could tear his ACL three offseasons in a row and still have quite a bit of value.
Obviously nobody is a lock, but Lawrence is pretty darn close to a lock for me in terms of being a capable QB. He will also get running points.
At 22 that is enormous value in superflex......at least I think it is. I dont play superflex
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Couldn't disagree more.
The point of draft picks, IMO, if to get talent on your squad you think will help you win. If you see an opportunity to do that a year really you should do it. It's not always about "maximizing value" of the pick and besides, there is no guarantee the kind of guy you hope you'll get will actually be there next year.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Give me the future 1st.
If you implore this strategy every chance you get, you will be better for it in the long run by far.
I am cool with a slightly lesser chance to win in 2021 and 2022 if it means I have a better chance to win from 2023 till, well, forever
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
I'm not saying to always do it. I just disagree you never should.
It's better to do in-draft, I'll admit. Last year, Higgins and Aiyuk, for example, both made it to the 2nd round in a couple drafts I had. They'd definitely be worth a 2021 first - but I'm sure not everyone feels that way either.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
No. Lawrence is the main piece in this deal and is worth more than Gibson. 1.01 Should get you Gibson plus more than Campbell. It's not bad by any means, but most SF players wouldn't take this unless they were loaded at QB. In which case they would be asking for more than Campbell to go with Gibson.
For reference, and with the caveat that I'm crazy, I paid Gibson plus my future 1st for R Wilson a few weeks ago. Who is going just after Lawrence in startups. Gibson about two rounds later.
It is. Ok not huge but it is in favor of 1.01.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I think you mean in two years, not next year. Which IMO only strengthens your point and I agree I don't think it is crazy for the 2.01 this year. I'd need to feel really good about the board though.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
At DTC for SF they have Lawrence at 45.4 and Gibson at 32.2 with Campbell at 3.0. Future 1sts are roughly valued at 11 in their system (which I disagree with but if you're going to pick a random future 1st).
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
I mean I have no idea what I'll get with my 2022 pick. So if I feel like I am getting a starter this year for a hypothetical next near then I'm open to it.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
That’s what makes the world go around. We can have different opinions about that.
I’ll happily deal my 2021 2nd for a 2022 1st, believing I’ll get superior talent by acquiring that future pick.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I *love* Gibson but I would not move a top QB for him in SF.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I’d still want the 2023 1st over a 2021 2nd, but it also depends a lot on what my team looks like now.
for example, my team is a competing win-now team with 3 straight playoff appearances, but getting older in places.
If I feel like I’ll compete this year, then maybe next year I deal off aging assets for draft picks, do poorly & get good draft position and put a bunch of eggs into the 2023 draft hoping to restock with young talent.
If I need a piece or two to win this year, I can see getting the 2nd now to get someone to help my team.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
All true. If you’re all-in on Lawrence & not a Gibson believer.
I am actually not a Gibson believer, but I’m saying I might go for a more proven asset in a package with Gibson if I needed a QB.
But since it’s a 10-teamer, that changes values a lot, and also since I know nothing about the roster makeup of the team trying to obtain the 1.01 I’ll just leave it alone at this point.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
What is Lawrence ADP in superflex startups?
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Yeah I read it twice now and I still don't read it the way you meant. I saw that they were questioning Parris but you said "Gibson is the main guy in this deal" not the main piece on one side of it. That is like taking the effort to tell someone that water is wet. Plus you've been arguing he is worth the most anyway. For the record I agree with you about the risk of Lawrence - I'd prefer a vet myself. But in terms of market value.....it is close enough to be fair but if Lawrence *isn't* a bust, his value will go up even higher.
Mahomes is at 77 on the DTC scale. Top RBs are CMC/Taylor/Barkley at 49,47,46
That's just one calc and one metric. Anyway.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
If I have Burrow in SF I probably am relying on him and want to hold. But in terms of market I think it may be about right. Still a little light though for Burrow. The Campbell throw in might do it. I don't like him but I'm sure if I was the one making a deal I could find a secondary piece that I did like. And again if I had extra QBs (in SF the tendency is to actually have more stud RBs though) then yeah that's the kind of thing I'd try to do. But I'm not really a Gibson buyer now that he has broken out. Too expensive.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I did one last month he went 1.04 (I think that is a little early) right after Mahomes, Murray and Allen. 4 more QBs came off right after him before CMC at 1.09. In FFPC. His ADP though is 1.08 but that includes Watson who will undoubtedly fall pretty far.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
If he is even a little good though, his value will be worth as much or more than the very top RBs a year from now. Burrow would be too if he hadn't got hurt.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
It’s so hard to discuss these in hypotheticals since we don’t know what the motivation of the teams involved are, too. Is it a rebuild, a retool, a team with 6 RB looking for a QB of the future, a ready to win team that needs a QB2 now - any/all of those factors can impact what someone is willing to pay to make the move.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I’m up at 4 on Sundays & posting from my market booth. Being articulate isn’t always possible before the coffee hits.
