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****OFFICIAL 2021 OFF- SEASON DYNASTY TRADES****


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18 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Couldn't disagree more.

The point of draft picks, IMO, if to get talent on your squad you think will help you win. If you see an opportunity to do that a year really you should do it. It's not always about "maximizing value" of the pick and besides, there is no guarantee the kind of guy you hope you'll get will actually be there next year.

Give me the future 1st.

If you implore this strategy every chance you get, you will be better for it in the long run by far.  

I am cool with a slightly lesser chance to win in 2021 and 2022 if it means I have a better chance to win from 2023 till, well, forever

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No, they won't accept

Barkley on this one, it isn't that close

I don't know why so many people are saying that this is a fair return (despite preferring CMC as they should). It isn't. This is a fraction of what it should cost for a guy like CMC, either that or th

11 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

Give me the future 1st.

If you implore this strategy every chance you get, you will be better for it in the long run by far.  

I am cool with a slightly lesser chance to win in 2021 and 2022 if it means I have a better chance to win from 2023 till, well, forever

I'm not saying to always do it. I just disagree you never should.

It's better to do in-draft, I'll admit. Last year, Higgins and Aiyuk, for example, both made it to the 2nd round in a couple drafts I had. They'd definitely be worth a 2021 first - but I'm sure not everyone feels that way either.

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1 hour ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Hard to say. I’m more a bird in the hand guy though & there are a lot of questions around JAX, a team I’m loathe to invest in. 

If there’s a Gibson fan in your league maybe you add a better player than Campbell & try for an even better QB. 

I’d rather have a QB in a better situation if I’m paying a starting RB + X for it. 

each to their own. 

X = almost nothing in that equation.

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1 hour ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Some, yes, but Gibson is the main guy in this deal. 

 

No. Lawrence is the main piece in this deal and is worth more than Gibson. 1.01 Should get you Gibson plus more than Campbell. It's not bad by any means, but most SF players wouldn't take this unless they were loaded at QB. In which case they would be asking for more than Campbell to go with Gibson.

For reference, and with the caveat that I'm crazy, I paid Gibson plus my future 1st for R Wilson a few weeks ago. Who is going just after Lawrence in startups. Gibson about two rounds later.

 

2 hours ago, ghostguy123 said:

This is why I am gonna stay away from superflex.  I assumed this was hugely lopsided in favor of the #1 pick.

It is. Ok not huge but it is in favor of 1.01.

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49 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Couldn't disagree more.

The point of draft picks, IMO, if to get talent on your squad you think will help you win. If you see an opportunity to do that a year really you should do it. It's not always about "maximizing value" of the pick and besides, there is no guarantee the kind of guy you hope you'll get will actually be there next year.

I think you mean in two years, not next year. Which IMO only strengthens your point and I agree I don't think it is crazy for the 2.01 this year. I'd need to feel really good about the board though.

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At DTC for SF they have Lawrence at 45.4 and Gibson at 32.2 with Campbell at 3.0. Future 1sts are roughly valued at 11 in their system (which I disagree with but if you're going to pick a random future 1st).

 

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4 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

I think you mean in two years, not next year. Which IMO only strengthens your point and I agree I don't think it is crazy for the 2.01 this year. I'd need to feel really good about the board though.

I mean I have no idea what I'll get with my 2022 pick. So if I feel like I am getting a starter this year for a hypothetical next near then I'm open to it.

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Just now, Andy Dufresne said:

I mean I have no idea what I'll get with my 2022 pick. So if I feel like I am getting a starter this year for a hypothetical next near then I'm open to it.

ok but what I'm saying is that the deal was for a 2023 pick not 2022

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56 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Couldn't disagree more.

The point of draft picks, IMO, if to get talent on your squad you think will help you win. If you see an opportunity to do that a year really you should do it. It's not always about "maximizing value" of the pick and besides, there is no guarantee the kind of guy you hope you'll get will actually be there next year.

That’s what makes the world go around. We can have different opinions about that.

I’ll happily deal my 2021 2nd for a 2022 1st, believing I’ll get superior talent by acquiring that future pick.

 

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Just now, barackdhouse said:

Huh? You said Gibson was the main piece in the deal.

In response to someone questioning the value of Paris. Context matters. 

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1 minute ago, barackdhouse said:

ok but what I'm saying is that the deal was for a 2023 pick not 2022

I’d still want the 2023 1st over a 2021 2nd, but it also depends a lot on what my team looks like now. 

for example, my team is a competing win-now team with 3 straight playoff appearances, but getting older in places.

If I feel like I’ll compete this year, then maybe next year I deal off aging assets for draft picks, do poorly & get good draft position and put a bunch of eggs into the 2023 draft hoping to restock with young talent. 

If I need a piece or two to win this year, I can see getting the 2nd now to get someone to help my team.

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1 hour ago, ghostguy123 said:

Gibson could be worthless in a year or two for various reasons.   He is no lock.

Lawrence could tear his ACL three offseasons in a row and still have quite a bit of value.  

Obviously nobody is a lock, but Lawrence is pretty darn close to a lock for me in terms of being a capable QB.  He will also get running points.  

At 22 that is enormous value in superflex......at least I think it is.  I dont play superflex

All true. If you’re all-in on Lawrence & not a Gibson believer.

I am actually not a Gibson believer, but I’m saying I might go for a more proven asset in a package with Gibson if I needed a QB. 

But since it’s a 10-teamer, that changes values a lot, and also since I know nothing about the roster makeup of the team trying to obtain the 1.01 I’ll just leave it alone at this point. 

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1 minute ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

In response to someone questioning the value of Paris. Context matters. 

Yeah I read it twice now and I still don't read it the way you meant. I saw that they were questioning Parris but you said "Gibson is the main guy in this deal" not the main piece on one side of it. That is like taking the effort to tell someone that water is wet. Plus you've been arguing he is worth the most anyway. For the record I agree with you about the risk of Lawrence - I'd prefer a vet myself. But in terms of market value.....it is close enough to be fair but if Lawrence *isn't* a bust, his value will go up even higher. 

Mahomes is at 77 on the DTC scale. Top RBs are CMC/Taylor/Barkley at 49,47,46

That's just one calc and one metric. Anyway.

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4 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

What about someone like Burrow?

If I have Burrow in SF I probably am relying on him and want to hold. But in terms of market I think it may be about right. Still a little light though for Burrow. The Campbell throw in might do it. I don't like him but I'm sure if I was the one making a deal I could find a secondary piece that I did like. And again if I had extra QBs (in SF the tendency is to actually have more stud RBs though) then yeah that's the kind of thing I'd try to do. But I'm not really a Gibson buyer now that he has broken out. Too expensive.

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4 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

What is Lawrence ADP in superflex startups?

I did one last month he went 1.04 (I think that is a little early) right after Mahomes, Murray and Allen. 4 more QBs came off right after him before CMC at 1.09. In FFPC. His ADP though is 1.08 but that includes Watson who will undoubtedly fall pretty far.

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8 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

All true. If you’re all-in on Lawrence & not a Gibson believer.

I am actually not a Gibson believer, but I’m saying I might go for a more proven asset in a package with Gibson if I needed a QB. 

I like Gibson but I do think that is the right approach. 

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45 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

I like Gibson but I do think that is the right approach. 

It’s so hard to discuss these in hypotheticals since we don’t know what the motivation of the teams involved are, too. Is it a rebuild, a retool, a team with 6 RB looking for a QB of the future, a ready to win team that needs a QB2 now - any/all of those factors can impact what someone is willing to pay to make the move.

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55 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

Yeah I read it twice now and I still don't read it the way you meant.

I’m up at 4 on Sundays & posting from my market booth. Being articulate isn’t always possible before the coffee hits. :lol: 

 

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1 hour ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

It’s so hard to discuss these in hypotheticals since we don’t know what the motivation of the teams involved are, too. Is it a rebuild, a retool, a team with 6 RB looking for a QB of the future, a ready to win team that needs a QB2 now - any/all of those factors can impact what someone is willing to pay to make the move.

yeah these deals don't exist inside an academic model or a vacuum. that truth gets lost too easily.

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1 minute ago, barackdhouse said:

FFPC 1QB not involved

Team A gave Mixon, 1.11
Team B gage A Jones, 2.05

I might take the Mixon side there. I'm paranoid about his foot though.

I would take Mixon over Aaron Jones straight up so for sure with the pick bump.

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4 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

FFPC 1QB not involved

Team A gave Mixon, 1.11
Team B gage A Jones, 2.05

I might take the Mixon side there. I'm paranoid about his foot though.

I like Mixon and I’ve defended him several times before, despite never owning him in dynasty. I do, however, own Aaron Jones, and I would not make this swap in my league. So I have to roll with the AJ side. 

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5 hours ago, Snorkelson said:

Here is a good lesson in fantasy relations. You could have responded with something snarky because 2.09/future 2 is a pretty bad offer, and that may have put the guy off. Sometimes a bad starting offer is simply that and keeping that door open is always a good idea. Even if someone bombards you with stupid offers year after year they’re bound to send something stupid you actually like.

I agree with this. Usually counter-offers don't work because the trade has to be one they have come up with. I have responded to bad trade offers with a counter and they usually just sit there with no response until they time out or I rescind them.

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23 minutes ago, menobrown said:

I would take Mixon over Aaron Jones straight up so for sure with the pick bump.

I don't get this take.  Mixon has had 2 1000+ yards in 4 seasons, averaging 4.1 and 4.9 respectively.  He did catch 35 and 43 passes in those two years.  Last year was a bust with 3.6, but will throw that year out the with him only playing in 6 games and with COVID.  Jones has a better track record running the ball (similar yards, better average 5.2 to 4.1, and TDs 37 to 20), similar reception numbers, but with Jones slightly better.  However, Jones is a year and half older, so I can see the attraction there for Mixon.  Mixon will be 25 in July and Jones will be 27 in December. 

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Just now, JohnnyU said:

I don't get this take.  Mixon has had 2 1000+ yards in 4 seasons, averaging 4.1 and 4.9 respectively.  He did catch 35 and 43 passes in those two years.  Last year was a bust with 3.6, but will throw that year out the with him only playing in 6 games and with COVID.  Jones has a better track record running the ball (similar yards, better average 5.2 to 4.1, and TDs 37 to 20, similar reception numbers, but with Jones slightly better.  However, Jones is a year and half older, so I can see the attraction there for Mixon.  Mixon will be 25 in July and Jones will be 27 in December. 

I don't pay for what you did, I pay for what I think you'll do.

Jones is older, Dillon's going to impact him and arrow is pointing up in Cincy after they improve the OL and Burrow goes into year two.

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4 minutes ago, menobrown said:

I don't pay for what you did, I pay for what I think you'll do.

Jones is older, Dillon's going to impact him and arrow is pointing up in Cincy after they improve the OL and Burrow goes into year two.

Ok, I can see that, but I don't think Jones will slow down for another two seasons.   Plus, how is Mixon's foot injury coming along?  I always worry about foot injuries to RBs.  I don't think Dillon is going to impact Jones anymore than he did last season.  Did the Bengals improve their OL?  I haven't watched their FA signings.  Who's to say they will in the draft?  There is talk about Sewell, but they may go Chase.

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5 minutes ago, menobrown said:

I don't pay for what you did, I pay for what I think you'll do.

Jones is older, Dillon's going to impact him and arrow is pointing up in Cincy after they improve the OL and Burrow goes into year two.

I don't think AJ Dillon is going to impact Aaron Jones any more than J Williams did. In fact, I would argue he will have less of an impact.

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Just now, JohnnyU said:

Ok, I can see that, but I don't think Jones will slow down for another two seasons.   Plus, how is Mixon's foot injury coming along?  I always worry about foot injuries to RBs.  I don't think Dillon is going to impact Jones anymore than he did last season.

 

2 minutes ago, northern exposure said:

I don't think AJ Dillon is going to impact Aaron Jones any more than J Williams did. In fact, I would argue he will have less of an impact.

I think Jones should be good another two seasons as well, basically Kamara lite is how I see him. But I will back up my previous comment that I do in fact think Dillon's going to eat into his workload and production more then Jamaal Williams has in the last two seasons and a lot more.

I truly don't care about the foot injury, it's not like it even required surgery.

I'd probably rank them even if they were the same age,  the 1.5 years is a small thing but it's enough to push Mixon over him a little for me.

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2 hours ago, barackdhouse said:

I did one last month he went 1.04 (I think that is a little early) right after Mahomes, Murray and Allen. 4 more QBs came off right after him before CMC at 1.09. In FFPC. His ADP though is 1.08 but that includes Watson who will undoubtedly fall pretty far.

Well I just saw Watson go at 1.09 in an FFPC SF startup this morning so nevermind on that. Plus this just happened:

Team A gave Watson
Team B gave 1.03, 2022 2nd

Plenty of people that aren't scared off it would seem.

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12 minutes ago, northern exposure said:

I don't think AJ Dillon is going to impact Aaron Jones any more than J Williams did. In fact, I would argue he will have less of an impact.

Yep. Even if he steals more carries/red zone looks, he’s not nearly the pass catcher that Williams was, so that should net more targets and receptions for Jones. 

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4 hours ago, barackdhouse said:

Well I just saw Watson go at 1.09 in an FFPC SF startup this morning so nevermind on that. Plus this just happened:

Team A gave Watson
Team B gave 1.03, 2022 2nd

Plenty of people that aren't scared off it would seem.

:shock:

 

siri, how do I start my league in the worst possible way, and what’s the most I could possibly pay for the riskiest asset? 

:ding: ::see above::

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1 hour ago, northern exposure said:

I don't think AJ Dillon is going to impact Aaron Jones any more than J Williams did. In fact, I would argue he will have less of an impact.

I’m inclined to agree. If anything it might keep AJ fresh.

The deciding factors on impact will be how Dillon is used as a receiver & at the stripe. If he starts eating into the GL touches & receptions, obviously that’s bad for AJ’s value. 

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Couple of big ones in a few of my leagues today, both of these are 1-2-3-1-flex, PPR, 12 team:

Michael Thomas + 1.05 + Aaron Rodgers

for

CeeDee Lamb + 1.08 + Kirk Cousins

 

Antonio Gibson + Michael Pittman

for

George Kittle + Chris Carson

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27 minutes ago, Buckna said:

Couple of big ones in a few of my leagues today, both of these are 1-2-3-1-flex, PPR, 12 team:

Michael Thomas + 1.05 + Aaron Rodgers

for

CeeDee Lamb + 1.08 + Kirk Cousins

 

Antonio Gibson + Michael Pittman

for

George Kittle + Chris Carson

Followed up by two unrelated teams to the first two:

Watson + Fournette + Gerald Everett

for

Dak + Hunt + 4.02 + 4.05

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2 minutes ago, Buckna said:

Followed up by two unrelated teams to the first two:

Watson + Fournette + Gerald Everett

for

Dak + Hunt + 4.02 + 4.05

If Watson only gets a few games, the Watson side is gonna look pretty awesome for this deal. 

if Watson is out longer / faces criminal charges, team Dak/Hunt gonna be super happy. 

Unpossible to know at the moment. 

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13 hours ago, bro1ncos said:

10 team PPR SF

Team 1 - 1.01

Team 2 - Antonio Gibson and Parris Campbell 

For reference in an FFPC SF I traded 1.01 for Dobbins & Godwin

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33 minutes ago, Buckna said:

Couple of big ones in a few of my leagues today, both of these are 1-2-3-1-flex, PPR, 12 team:

Michael Thomas + 1.05 + Aaron Rodgers

for

CeeDee Lamb + 1.08 + Kirk Cousins

completely depends on what direction each of these teams is headed. If team Thomas / ARod / 1.05 is built to win now and then rebuild, I love this deal for them. 

Tough call though. Gotta see how Jamies the saint is. And don’t know how many years ARod has left. 

33 minutes ago, Buckna said:

Antonio Gibson + Michael Pittman

for

George Kittle + Chris Carson

Kittle/Carson for me & it’s not close. 

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How much would you leverage your future to win it all now?

I have very little draft capital this year (3.12), I have no 1-2 next year, & 2023 I have all 5 picks.

I also have a win-now roster that lacks depth. Mahomes/Carr/DJones, Carson/RoJo/(scrubs), ARob/Hopkins/Evans/Fuller/Samuel/(scrubs), EEngram/Gronk/Uzomah

Team Watson/Jacobs has a lot of nice pieces, but it’s SF & Brady is his only other QB. He made the playoffs in 2020 so he’s picking 8th. We were chatting & he was talking about a possible fire sale/rebuild, and I’m tempted to sell the farm for a couple of assets, try to win it in 2021-2022 then blow it up for a future rebuild. 

If you had my team, would you be willing to pay a 2021 3rd, 2022 3/4, & 2023 1/2/3/4 + Samuel & for CEH/Metcalf? Or CEH/Tee Higgins? Or Jacobs/Metcalf? Or Jacobs/Higgins? Or any one of those players even? 

Or is it crazy to leverage that much of my future for any of those combos?

Or would I be better off standing Pat, trying to win this year and blowing it up next year by selling my top 3 WRs for 2023 picks, tanking 2022 & going for a major rebuild? 

You’re GM of my team for the next 10 mins. What do you do?  

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10 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

How much would you leverage your future to win it all now?

I have very little draft capital this year (3.12), I have no 1-2 next year, & 2023 I have all 5 picks.

I also have a win-now roster that lacks depth. Mahomes/Carr/DJones, Carson/RoJo/(scrubs), ARob/Hopkins/Evans/Fuller/Samuel/(scrubs), EEngram/Gronk/Uzomah

Team Watson/Jacobs has a lot of nice pieces, but it’s SF & Brady is his only other QB. He made the playoffs in 2020 so he’s picking 8th. We were chatting & he was talking about a possible fire sale/rebuild, and I’m tempted to sell the farm for a couple of assets, try to win it in 2021-2022 then blow it up for a future rebuild. 

If you had my team, would you be willing to pay a 2021 3rd, 2022 3/4, & 2023 1/2/3/4 + Samuel & for CEH/Metcalf? Or CEH/Tee Higgins? Or Jacobs/Metcalf? Or Jacobs/Higgins?

Or is it crazy to leverage that much of my future for any of those combos?

Or would I be better off standing Pat, trying to win this year and blowing it up next year by selling my top 3 WRs for 2023 picks, tanking 2022 & going for a major rebuild? 

You’re GM of my team for the next 10 mins. What do you do?  

Why would anyone give those players for those picks?

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10 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

Why would anyone give those players for those picks?

Just spitballing. Maybe I go all in on CEH or Tee. Or Jacobs, who he’s suddenly super down on but would help my team a lot. I’d think that package might have him at least considering it. 

Dude isn’t winning anything this year or likely next. His team has had a string of horrible luck. :shrug: 

Maybe it’s a dumb idea...I know he covets draft picks more than most. 

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15 minutes ago, King of the Jungle said:

This is a reminder of why I don’t play super flex. Hurts for Kelce shouldn’t be on the table no matter the format.

Was going to say the same thing but then I thought it's also not right that Mahomes might not buy you a top 5 rookie pick in some standard leagues.

Wish a middle ground existed.

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