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****OFFICIAL DYNASTY TRADES**** (24 Viewers)
- Thread starter Gottabesweet
- Start date
rockaction
Footballguy
Having a hard time thinking why you'd want to move down in the draft to get a presumably late first rounder next year. Looks to me like, if things stay constant, you've given up the 1.07 and next year's 2.07 for the 1.11 this year and the 1.11 next year. Not a big fan, really, unless you're looking at a late riser and someone at 1.11 that others might be grabbing late in the first after the draft happens and you don't have a tier break. Then I could see it.
Chad Parsons
Moderator
12-team TE Prem Best Ball
Marvin Jones, Dan Arnold, David Njoku
FOR
John Brown, TY Hilton
Marvin Jones, Dan Arnold, David Njoku
FOR
John Brown, TY Hilton
Chad Parsons
Moderator
12-team 1QB PPR
Cam Akers, Damien Harris, 1.04, 1.12, 2.08, 2.11
FOR
Christian McCaffrey, 1.06
Cam Akers, Damien Harris, 1.04, 1.12, 2.08, 2.11
FOR
Christian McCaffrey, 1.06
Chad Parsons
Moderator
12-team SF, 2TE
Kamarro Edmonds, JoJo Earle, Grayson McCall, Raheim Sanders
FOR
AJ Dillon, Will Fuller
Kamarro Edmonds, JoJo Earle, Grayson McCall, Raheim Sanders
FOR
AJ Dillon, Will Fuller
kittenmittens
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
People are forgetting how good McCaffrey was when he played last year. Still a cheat code. I think he averaged around twenty-eight points last year in Half-PPR. Yeah, he did. That's just insane. You're trusting Sean McVay a lot with that deal. And Akers, too. I don't know. The 1.04 is right after the tier break of the big three and you're giving up the 1.06 for the 1.12, too.
Dunno. That's a tough one. The two second rounders might swing it the Akers way. Big boy trade, for sure.
Dunno. That's a tough one. The two second rounders might swing it the Akers way. Big boy trade, for sure.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Moving from 1.06 to 1.04 is not negligible, but ultimately this is CMC for Akers/1.12 and a bunch of nickels and I take CMC by a good bit in that equation.
I should definitely qualify this though that I was a known Akers doubter coming into the league and on top of that I loathe buying 2nd year RBs coming off a hot finish to their rookie year. I find them to be the worst value and worst risk/reward ratio in all of fantasy football.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I'll take the roster spot
Holy crikey. Earlier I listened to a debate between Taylor and CMC at 1.01 in a single QB FFPC startup. Among the biggest arguments that really caught my ear was the fact that CMC is still only 24. Every time I hear that I seem to be reminded of it. This will be his 25yo season but still. It bears repeating that getting 3 more elite CMC type seasons is not out of the question. The other strong point was that despite the (incredibly effing high) volume of touches for CMC, he is elite when it comes to avoiding big hits and shielding his body.
I really love Akers, and partly for situation. That Rams defense looks nastier than ever. Stafford is a massive upgrade (adjustment period notwithstanding). There could be a lot of positive gamescripts for them. But after overanalyzing this stuff, I'm thinking that part of any potential preference for Akers (aside from a 3 years age gap) would have to be some kind of belief that he will get a very respectable amount of receiving work. I can believe in a 2nd year leap for Akers re:receptions but not if they're not trailing in a lot of games. And I haven't looked but I'm curious on the Rams SB odds right now because I might need to jump on that. Straight up I'd take TB but the Rams could be really dominant.
I don't know where Taylor fits in there because Wentz/Reich is both promising and unknown whether it will work but not sure Taylor gets the receiving work to justify taking over CMC at 1.01. He might get 2000 yards and 15 TDs though. That defense is good too.
All that to say the Carolina Panthers defense is probably pretty crappy this year and as far as game scripts in PPR are concerned, CMC by a landslide. And I really love Akers. If I was in love with Pitts and had a plan then maybe going from 1.06 to 1.04 with all the other liquid dart throws might sway me. But I take CMC.
I didn't forget that at all but I did forget he was only 24. I drew the 1 spot in a lot of leagues last year somehow. Variance was finally on my side and then ####. But I started the heck out of him in those 3 games and he *did* deliver those weeks. Other argument dude made was that he is like having a WR1 *and* a RB1 at the same time in just one spot.
smbkrypt24
Footballguy
smbkrypt24
Footballguy
My view on the 1.07 is that it will be one of Williams, Waddle, D. Smith. I am not that enamored with those options and at 1.11 I will pick from Lawrence, Bateman, Moore, Marshall, RB/WR riser. I need QB help so if Lawrence falls I am fine taking him otherwise I like those WR options very similar to what I would get at 1.07.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
FFPC SF
I gave Hurts, 1.05
I got Mayfield, 1.04, 2.10
I gave Hurts, 1.05
I got Mayfield, 1.04, 2.10
Wigglytuff's Gruff
Footballguy
Just seen Fournette move for a 2023 1st.
kutta
Footballguy
David Johnson fits your profile perfectly and won a lot of leagues in his second year. I’m expecting something similar for Akers this year.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Oh for sure, nothing is 100%. Just those guys bust more often than not while being priced as if they are sure things. They probably bust at a higher rate than top rookies while being more expensive than them. They are seen as "safer" but it's an illusion, and you're usually paying that premium for a lessor talent due to that illusion.
Put another way, Akers startup ADP is 1.07 right now. That's roughly where Zeke and Saquon were drafted in startups as rookies. If we're talking about paying the same price to me Zeke and Saquon as rookies before having ever stepped on an NFL field were a safer play (and not to mention with a higher ceiling, imo) than Akers after a small handful of good games in the NFL.
Just my $.02 of course, but every year it seems like we have these guys (last year it was Miles Sanders) and for every one that turns into league winner David Johnson there are a whole bunch that just see their value precipitously drop year after year.
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Snorkelson
Footballguy
So you got the better qb, better 1st, and a 2.10 on top of it? Is the owners team name “Big Tasty?”
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I would much rather have Hurts than Mayfield, personally. Baker QB26 in PPG last year with everything going right in Cleveland. Snooze.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Not everything went right. The weather conditions were crazy for a big stretch there last year. Biggest thing I saw with him is that I think he really took a step forward in his development. But I actually would rather have Hurts straight up myself. But this wasn't straight up and I like Mayfield more than most.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
According to some rankings and calcs but I do think most people prefer Hurts. Mayfield is more or less guaranteed to be the franchise QB for 10 years where Hurts still has to become that guy. But yeah I like the bump and the 2.10 as well.
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
This is a lot to give up but I still take the CMC side. Akers should be good but there is something to a player that can be RB1 every year for the next few. A good return but nothing guaranteed to be even close to the monster CMC is.
jabarony
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
Bateman's ADP as of now is number six. The RB/WR riser is definitely in play at 1.11. Sermon with third round draft capital, maybe? Even though we're at Footballguys and it's par for the course to pooh-pooh it, Matt Waldman's first ranking of him is having an industry effect, which will mean a subsequent rise in ADP. I do like your thinking that you can get a riser at eleven. That's what I was saying in my initial assessment. I get it if that's your thought, and it is.
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smbkrypt24
Footballguy
Where do you see Batemans ADP at 6? Most rankings I see have him from 7-9
what does the rest of the ADP show? top 12
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rockaction
Footballguy
Sure. I'm going off of DLF rookie ADP per their mocks.
It goes Harris, Chase, Etienne, Williams, Pitts, Bateman, Smith, Waddle, R. Moore, Lawrence, Gainwell, Marshall, E. Moore, J. Fields, A. Ra-St. Brown, Hubbard, Jermar Jefferson, Michael Carter
The informational note to the rankings is this:
"This ADP data is drawn from Rookie-Only dynasty mock drafts organized by @RyanMc23. These rookie mock drafts are not run year-round. They are only operated a few months every year, usually January through May. Once live rookie drafts begin occuring on MyFantasyLeague, the MFL Rookie ADP is used in place of the this data."
Penguin
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
You're not drafting with what should be, you're drafting with what is. There's no illegitimacy in it.
Just because consensus experts rank them differently, or you think they should be different, doesn't take away from the volume and character of the mocks. They are the vox populi, and that's what you'll be drafting with or against. Jermar Jefferson and Chuba Hubbard in the top twenty are mighty questionable after their pro days, too, but that's where they are.
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JohnnyU
Footballguy
You've been watching too much Dynasty Flock videos, he hammers anyone who tries to rank Bateman over Smith or Javonte Williams over ETN. I'm not saying he's wrong, but he is a "Group Think" kind of Youtuber. I personally like Waddle over both. Does that make me wrong? I don't know, but I have an opinion. Either way, I don't go go against "Group Think" without reason, my reasons. I personally rank them Chase, Waddle, Smith, Bateman. I think the difference between 3 and 4 are close and I could easily flip them and have it Chase, Waddle, Bateman, Smith. The outlier here is Elijah Moore, but the hype is greater than the reality IMO from a fantasy perspective. Now that doesn't mean an NFL team wouldn't draft Moore over one of these guys, but let's remember that Ruggs was the first WR taken in the NFL draft last year.
ETA: I only mentioned Dynasty Flock as an example when it comes to Devonta Smith vs Bateman. You may never have even heard of him for all I know.
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I was definitely leaning Bateman over Smith and Waddle prior to pro-days. Bateman supposedly had a massive size advantage but still had the speed, production, breakout age, etc. Things are a little closer/muddier now, draft capital and landing spot are going to influence their final true ADP a lot IMO, although I think Smith falls to the end of the tier for a lot of people scared off by his atypical size.
Meh. Reminds me of startup SF mocks a month ago when Austin Ekeler goes ahead of Trevor Lawrence. Then real SF drafts happen and Ekeler goes 5th-6th round and Lawrence never gets out of the first
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Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
Before the NFL draft where we know landing spots means that all of this is speculation anyways. Not sure any of it is completely "legitimate". It is all a guess right now so take of it what you will.
rockaction
Footballguy
That's a fair point. I guess I was just posting the best we have right now. Surely it will change, and not just because of the draft. When the rubber meets the road, there's sure to be alterations.
smbkrypt24
Footballguy
I asked for his list since it was slightly different than most rankings I have seen. I did go back to the ADP for drafts and took another glance at it.
I agree that this time of the year is not when you cement your rankings, but I like to evaluate the higher end prospects to see where I want to end up in the rookie draft. Most of the mock rankings are just regurgitated rankings posters see elsewhere, but I still like to see those rankings because I could have a big discrepancy than others and it help me. The NFL draft is a big part of my evaluation/rankings.
jabarony
Footballguy
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
Huh. Superflex? I traded Mostert last year around playoff time for the 2.07, so I'm pretty sure I'd do something similar like that again. Whether that is wise is another thing, but I think it was for my team, who is mediocre and needs a fluff, if not a rebuild.
DropKick
Footballguy
kittenmittens
Footballguy
I don't think CMCs trade value can go up any higher than it currently is right now. It's all downside.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I don't think he got the better QB. Hurst is surely more risky but has a huge upside - Mayfield's ceiling is likely a low end QB1, but he's more likely to be a mid-range QB2 which are a dime a dozen.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Maybe it's just that I'm getting older and less interested in fantasy football but each of the last few seasons I move closer and closer to not even caring about "ranking" the rookies until after the NFL draft.
I have guys I really like a lot now - but outside of the "top" guys I'll figure it all out after I see the draft capital spent and landing spots on each player before I'll care about who is my WR6 v my WR7/8/9....
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
It comes out to something approximate to Aiyuk and Marshall.
I like Aiyuk quite a bit. But I think I'd need more than that for Chubb.
Birdie048
Footballguy
I agree... there are a small group who excite me now, but until I see who lands where, I will not expend too much energy or time devising a plan or ranking. I need that crucial piece of info to make it real.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I think people are being way too generous with Baker in assuming he will be a franchise QB for 10 years.
I absolutely can envision plenty of scenarios where his job is in jeopardy next season. When I said basically everything went right in Cleveland last year I was mostly referring to the defense, offensive line, and running game all playing at elite levels which makes any QB's job easy and allowed Baker to just be a game manager without carrying anything on his shoulders while the team won games.
If Cleveland struggles next year, as the majority of the prior year's borderline playoff teams typically do, Cleveland could pretty easily find themselves in the market for a new QB. If the defense flounders and Baker is forced to be more aggressive again and returns to his 20+ INT ways. If the O-line takes a step back and Baker starts seeing ghosts again where he immediately scrambles on every play like he was prone to do in 2019, etc.
I think he has a much more tenuous hold on that starting gig than people consider. And I also think people still are way too confident on an above average team from one year remaining an above average team the next year, which as we've seen literally hundreds of times is often not the case.
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
I'm right here with you. I'll read up on the 1st round guys but that is more out of boredom because there is no football right now. The NFL draft changes way too much to be set on rankings now. I think age and patience has something to do with that. Lol.
