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****OFFICIAL 2021 OFF- SEASON DYNASTY TRADES****


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Just now, JohnnyU said:

Besides, Breece Hall, I guess if you're high on the likes of Spiller (overrated), Zamir White, Teague, Harris (I like him somewhat), Brian Robinson, Jerion Ealy, Ty Chandler, and Ibrahim at RB, then go for it. As for WRs,  besides Bell and Burks, Olave, Pickens (post ACL), Garrett Wilson, John Metchie, don't seem overly strong to me.  I do like the QBs however.

Yes I'm high on Spiller and I know Louis Riddick considers him not only the #1RB in next years class but he said he'd be his #1RB in this years class. And I don't know how was calling out Javonte Williams this time last year or even that wildly high on Najee. We'll have plenty rise up.

I've heard from just about every source I find credible the QB's are not good. Of course they all give the Burrow/Baker/Mac caveat that they can seemingly rise up but as of now it's not good.

WR's are deep and strong as usual.

This year as of last week we had 657 players who had signed with an agent. In last two years at this time that number was 1,972 and 1,839. Let that sink in for a second. The reason was NFL granting extra year of eligibility due to COVID. Next season the number of players who sign with agents is expected to surprass 2,000, a good 3X the amount this year. Sure that's a lot of depth and not always fantasy type players but my guess is when you see the draft grow 3X next year with respect to draftable players the fantasy depth will come with it.

My advice this year is to deal your mid to late round rookie picks for similar picks next year.

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No, they won't accept

Barkley on this one, it isn't that close

It's a bit much to say the trade should be overturned. It's just a bunch of junk for a bunch of junk.

1 minute ago, tangfoot said:

Of course my ranking is for dynasty, it's in the gosh darn dynasty trades thread.  In redraft I wouldn't have Pitts as a top-10 TE for 2021.

I suppose we think differently.  No way I would take any TE over Pitts in a dynasty startup draft and you can get Pitts after all 3 of them most of the time.

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Well I just went for a pretty big splash because I'm that trading person in my league:


Devy IDP (PPR, Superflex, 6 points for all TDs - yeah, lots going on)

I gave:

Derrick Henry, DJ Moore, Kendrick Bourne, Eddie Jackson (S), 2021 1.15

I got:

CMC, Calvin Ridley

The reason:

New owner to league looking to put his own stamp on things. I saw CMC available and just reached out to see what it'd take. Somehow we go Ridley involved and once we left a little draft picks out of it and left alone a player like Claypool, I was ok moving DJ Moore in place of too much of my future picks. the 2021 1st round pick comes a year after a Devy Draft where that well ran pretty darn dry frankly and being 15th on that list after that means most of the draft picks are ok or prospect deep diving exercises anyways.

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13 minutes ago, Jayded said:

Well I just went for a pretty big splash because I'm that trading person in my league:


Devy IDP (PPR, Superflex, 6 points for all TDs - yeah, lots going on)

I gave:

Derrick Henry, DJ Moore, Kendrick Bourne, Eddie Jackson (S), 2021 1.15

I got:

CMC, Calvin Ridley

The reason:

New owner to league looking to put his own stamp on things. I saw CMC available and just reached out to see what it'd take. Somehow we go Ridley involved and once we left a little draft picks out of it and left alone a player like Claypool, I was ok moving DJ Moore in place of too much of my future picks. the 2021 1st round pick comes a year after a Devy Draft where that well ran pretty darn dry frankly and being 15th on that list after that means most of the draft picks are ok or prospect deep diving exercises anyways.

I know nothing about IDP, but McCaffrey >>>> Henry and Ridley >> Moore pretty easily for me.  I can’t imagine the other pieces are so valuable as to offset those two downgrades.  

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13 minutes ago, SayWhat? said:

I know nothing about IDP, but McCaffrey >>>> Henry and Ridley >> Moore pretty easily for me.  I can’t imagine the other pieces are so valuable as to offset those two downgrades.  

Precisely. Was a pretty easy move once he backed off draft picks and Claypool and asked for Moore instead. Jackson was droppable and biggest surprise ask to include and Bourne is meh to me. It was mostly if I believe in my 1.15 and answer is there should be no player left by that point to make me regret this deal otherwise (Michael Mayer? A 2024 RB or QB or WR guess?)

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I think I've said this before on the Kelce/Kittle debate but I think there is an extreme risk with Kittle that he is one of those TEs that ages out early.

He reminds me a ton of Gronk.  He hasn't missed a ton of time but he's picked up a ton of injuries and they are all in the areas that nag and cause guys to break down.

2016: foot sprain
2017: hamstring sprain
2017: ankle sprain
2018: shoulder separation
2019: knee sprain
2020: hamstring strain
2020: knee sprain
2020: foot fracture

Every time he comes back from one of these he's got some new bulky brace.  He looks lumbering out there.  Runs like a beast with extreme power (not necessarily great for longevity) but looks like he's moving a little worse every time.  His style constantly leaves him prone to hits in the areas that shorten careers.  Look at all those lower leg injuries.

Here is Kelce over the same span

2017: shoulder cleanup (offseason)
2017: concussion
2018: concussion
2020: knee bruise

Kelce is 32 but he looks like he's 25 running around out there.  Take away the knowledge of his age and you'd never know he's 30+.  Kittle is the opposite.  Dude is 27 but he looks like a 37 year old Jason Witten with all those bulky braces.

Gronk fell off a cliff at age 29.  I have concerns that Kittle will follow a similar path, even if it is a year or two later.

ETA: I think Waller is the overlooked sleeper in this discussion.

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1 hour ago, JohnnyU said:

I suppose we think differently.  No way I would take any TE over Pitts in a dynasty startup draft and you can get Pitts after all 3 of them most of the time.

Wow.  I find that a bit nuts personally.  Never seen this guy play and have no idea where he will even be.  I understand how great he "should" be but we know what we get with those other guys.  I like him though and will be rush drafting him at 5 if he is still there when I pick even though I have Kelce.  I just don't see ranking a rookie that high.

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1 hour ago, menobrown said:

Yes I'm high on Spiller and I know Louis Riddick considers him not only the #1RB in next years class but he said he'd be his #1RB in this years class. And I don't know how was calling out Javonte Williams this time last year or even that wildly high on Najee. We'll have plenty rise up.

I've heard from just about every source I find credible the QB's are not good. Of course they all give the Burrow/Baker/Mac caveat that they can seemingly rise up but as of now it's not good.

WR's are deep and strong as usual.

This year as of last week we had 657 players who had signed with an agent. In last two years at this time that number was 1,972 and 1,839. Let that sink in for a second. The reason was NFL granting extra year of eligibility due to COVID. Next season the number of players who sign with agents is expected to surprass 2,000, a good 3X the amount this year. Sure that's a lot of depth and not always fantasy type players but my guess is when you see the draft grow 3X next year with respect to draftable players the fantasy depth will come with it.

My advice this year is to deal your mid to late round rookie picks for similar picks next year.

I think you're gong to be disappointed this time next year.

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1 minute ago, wlwiles said:

12 team 1QB

Gave 2.12 & Higbee

Got Damien Harris

Wanted more RB depth and already had Goedert & Engram (no TEP, start 1TE).   

I hate NE RBs but this isn't a bad move for RB depth.  Higbee could be much better with Everett gone and getting Stafford but RBs are pricier and you won't miss those 2 pieces most likely.

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22 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I think I've said this before on the Kelce/Kittle debate but I think there is an extreme risk with Kittle that he is one of those TEs that ages out early.

He reminds me a ton of Gronk.  He hasn't missed a ton of time but he's picked up a ton of injuries and they are all in the areas that nag and cause guys to break down.

2016: foot sprain
2017: hamstring sprain
2017: ankle sprain
2018: shoulder separation
2019: knee sprain
2020: hamstring strain
2020: knee sprain
2020: foot fracture

Every time he comes back from one of these he's got some new bulky brace.  He looks lumbering out there.  Runs like a beast with extreme power (not necessarily great for longevity) but looks like he's moving a little worse every time.  His style constantly leaves him prone to hits in the areas that shorten careers.  Look at all those lower leg injuries.

Here is Kelce over the same span

2017: shoulder cleanup (offseason)
2017: concussion
2018: concussion
2020: knee bruise

Kelce is 32 but he looks like he's 25 running around out there.  Take away the knowledge of his age and you'd never know he's 30+.  Kittle is the opposite.  Dude is 27 but he looks like a 37 year old Jason Witten with all those bulky braces.

Gronk fell off a cliff at age 29.  I have concerns that Kittle will follow a similar path, even if it is a year or two later.

ETA: I think Waller is the overlooked sleeper in this discussion.

In context of age concerns, Waller will be 29 at the start of the season.

That said these age concerns for Kelce and Waller seem overblown to me. Gates finished as TE5 (TE Premiums scroring) @ age 34. Gonzo finished as TE2 at the age of 37. Kelce and Waller have playing styles similar to Gates and Gonzo IMO.

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22 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I think I've said this before on the Kelce/Kittle debate but I think there is an extreme risk with Kittle that he is one of those TEs that ages out early.

He reminds me a ton of Gronk.  He hasn't missed a ton of time but he's picked up a ton of injuries and they are all in the areas that nag and cause guys to break down.

2016: foot sprain
2017: hamstring sprain
2017: ankle sprain
2018: shoulder separation
2019: knee sprain
2020: hamstring strain
2020: knee sprain
2020: foot fracture

Every time he comes back from one of these he's got some new bulky brace.  He looks lumbering out there.  Runs like a beast with extreme power (not necessarily great for longevity) but looks like he's moving a little worse every time.  His style constantly leaves him prone to hits in the areas that shorten careers.  Look at all those lower leg injuries.

Here is Kelce over the same span

2017: shoulder cleanup (offseason)
2017: concussion
2018: concussion
2020: knee bruise

Kelce is 32 but he looks like he's 25 running around out there.  Take away the knowledge of his age and you'd never know he's 30+.  Kittle is the opposite.  Dude is 27 but he looks like a 37 year old Jason Witten with all those bulky braces.

Gronk fell off a cliff at age 29.  I have concerns that Kittle will follow a similar path, even if it is a year or two later.

ETA: I think Waller is the overlooked sleeper in this discussion.

Even injuries aside, and this is just a gut feeling, I know he loves football but something says to me that he could be the type of guy to call it quits out of nowhere and retire at a somewhat young age.

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2 hours ago, 32 Counter Pass said:

In context of age concerns, Waller will be 29 at the start of the season.

That said these age concerns for Kelce and Waller seem overblown to me. Gates finished as TE5 (TE Premiums scroring) @ age 34. Gonzo finished as TE2 at the age of 37. Kelce and Waller have playing styles similar to Gates and Gonzo IMO.

I totally agree with this.  These aren't RBs or even WRs.  I have no problem with them and no way I put a rookie above them.  Especially as the returning champ and trying to win now.

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I think one of the biggest factors with the idea of an age cliff is that players *who can perform at a high level* are the ones that get playing time. It isn't necessarily that guys like Gates and Gonzalez were less susceptible to the age decline syndrome, it's that they were still performing. If Kittle and Waller (and yes Kelce) can still perform then they will play. 

Put another way, a big reason the age cliff exists isn't purely a function of athletic decline, but rather that a player has reached a certain ceiling in their skill development and they just aren't that useful of an asset moving forward. When they were younger there was still hope. By 27/28 if they haven't become the guy they probably aren't going to. Even if they are an athletic marvel. Kittle has shown he is the guy. Waller has shown this. Kelce has shown this. 

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FFPC SF

I gave 2022 2nd, 3.01
I got Gabriel Davis

different FFPC SF:

I gave Hunt, 1.04
I got 1.06, 1.07

I haven't been looking to move back anywhere but I like the value on this one too much. I also hold 1.08. 

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21 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

different FFPC SF:

I gave Hunt, 1.04
I got 1.06, 1.07

I haven't been looking to move back anywhere but I like the value on this one too much. I also hold 1.08. 

These are always the trickiest deals for me to evaluate personally.  What if you'd been offered the 1.06 and 1.09? or the 1.05 and 1.10? 

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1 hour ago, barackdhouse said:

FFPC SF

I gave 2022 2nd, 3.01
I got Gabriel Davis

different FFPC SF:

I gave Hunt, 1.04
I got 1.06, 1.07

I haven't been looking to move back anywhere but I like the value on this one too much. I also hold 1.08. 

I think it is hard to walk away from what I see as a top tier of 4 in this draft but that is a ton of value to move down 2 spots and Hunt.  I would have jumped at that too.

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1 hour ago, barackdhouse said:

different FFPC SF:

I gave Hunt, 1.04
I got 1.06, 1.07

I haven't been looking to move back anywhere but I like the value on this one too much. I also hold 1.08. 

We need to know what your QB situation is to evaluate this trade. I like it if you have two or more solid QB. Not so much if you have Lock and Teddy.

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14 minutes ago, Jonesin For Some Football said:

I think it is hard to walk away from what I see as a top tier of 4 in this draft but that is a ton of value to move down 2 spots and Hunt.  I would have jumped at that too.

NM.

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I didn't read that it was Superflex. That changes everything. Born To Run made a really good point.

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36 minutes ago, Jonesin For Some Football said:

I didn't either.  QB would matter big time then.

Ah, so who are your big four in 1QB then, just out of curiosity? That's what I was asking you before I edited it.

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1 minute ago, Jonesin For Some Football said:

Totally depends on landing spots of course but I am big on RBs.  I have Harris, Chase, Etienne, and Williams but Pitts has been climbing.

Sure thing. I have a big three of Etienne, Harris, Chase, and then a drop off. That's why I was wondering about the fourth.

I think the DLF and averages by Tick over in the rankings thread seem to show that tier break after three. Just my opinion, though, and everybody's mileage may vary.

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17 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Sure thing. I have a big three of Etienne, Harris, Chase, and then a drop off. That's why I was wondering about the fourth.

I think the DLF and averages by Tick over in the rankings thread seem to show that tier break after three. Just my opinion, though, and everybody's mileage may vary.

I don't disagree with you but I do think if Williams ends up in somewhere like Pitts or Atlanta he is in that tier.  He isn't as much of a lock though.  I have 5 and 8 and feel a lot of those guys are all clumped together.

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1 minute ago, Adso said:

12 team, 1QB, PPR.

Gave: 2021 1.04, 2022 1st (late)

Got: A.J. Brown

Give me AJB...1.4 is a nice start to acquire him but if that 2022 is late it's not enough for me.

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I really don't think 1.04 is a place I want to take a QB. I could use another QB but I am ok there. I believe 1.06, 1.07 >> 1.04 plus Hunt. Having the 1.08 behind them is a nice place to be as well. 

I expect 3 QBs to go which would make this close to 1.02 and Hunt for 1.04 and 1.05 in single QB format. Or 1.01 and Hunt for 1.03 and 1.04. 

 

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2 hours ago, Born to Run said:

We need to know what your QB situation is to evaluate this trade. I like it if you have two or more solid QB. Not so much if you have Lock and Teddy.

I have much better than those two but even if I stayed at 1.04 there is virtually no chance I would be taking a rookie QB there. 

3 hours ago, wlwiles said:

These are always the trickiest deals for me to evaluate personally.  What if you'd been offered the 1.06 and 1.09? or the 1.05 and 1.10? 

Yeah the fact that it was 6 *and* 7 was a big factor. 

I probably do either of those two examples though. 

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13 hours ago, Adso said:

12 team, 1QB, PPR.

Gave: 2021 1.04, 2022 1st (late)

Got: A.J. Brown

I like it for the ROI.  I was shopping AJB recently and that + 2.01 & Van Jefferson was what I was asking for.  

So good gauge on his value but maybe I was asking too much? 

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1 hour ago, Birdie048 said:

I like it for the ROI.  I was shopping AJB recently and that + 2.01 & Van Jefferson was what I was asking for.  

So good gauge on his value but maybe I was asking too much? 

I don't think it was enough.  Brown is worth more than the 1.4, and a late  2022 1st.  In your deal, I don't think Van Jefferson is anything and the 2.01 added in isn't enough.  I believe I would have to have 2 top 8 picks in this draft and a future 1st to trade Brown.  It isn't on me to make the offer, because I'm not looking to trade Brown.  Why would I?  It's on those looking to acquire Brown to make the offer and it better be a great one.

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50 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

I don't think it was enough.  Brown is worth more than the 1.4, and a late  2022 1st.  In your deal, I don't think Van Jefferson is anything and the 2.01 added in isn't enough.  I believe I would have to have 2 top 8 8 picks in this draft and a future 1st to trade Brown.  It isn't on me to make the offer, because I'm not looking to trade Brown.  Why would I?  It's on those looking to acquire Brown to make the offer and it better be a great one.

The deal above was too light. But there's no way you're getting this considering the influx of young WR talent and that Brown plays for a low wattage passing team.

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12 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

The deal above was too light. But there's no way you're getting this considering the influx of young WR talent and that Brown plays for a low wattage passing team.

Perhaps that is true, but I wouldn't be the one shopping Brown either.

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15 hours ago, Adso said:

12 team, 1QB, PPR.

Gave: 2021 1.04, 2022 1st (late)

Got: A.J. Brown

This is a good move really.  I don't think I would consider this unless I got 1.2 to gaurantee I get Chase or the top RB on the bored or that 22 pick would have to be early most likely.  With 22 projected to be a weaker class, that might not even be enough.

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43 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

Perhaps that is true, but I wouldn't be the one shopping Brown either.

Yeah exactly. There can be a big difference between what you can get and what you are willing to take. If it is a guy that I'm not really trying to move then I don't necessarily care if my price is ludicrous to them. That is their problem to deal with. 

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On 4/20/2021 at 12:58 PM, Jayded said:

Well I just went for a pretty big splash because I'm that trading person in my league:


Devy IDP (PPR, Superflex, 6 points for all TDs - yeah, lots going on)

I gave:

Derrick Henry, DJ Moore, Kendrick Bourne, Eddie Jackson (S), 2021 1.15

I got:

CMC, Calvin Ridley

The reason:

New owner to league looking to put his own stamp on things. I saw CMC available and just reached out to see what it'd take. Somehow we go Ridley involved and once we left a little draft picks out of it and left alone a player like Claypool, I was ok moving DJ Moore in place of too much of my future picks. the 2021 1st round pick comes a year after a Devy Draft where that well ran pretty darn dry frankly and being 15th on that list after that means most of the draft picks are ok or prospect deep diving exercises anyways. is so freaking obvious it's unnecessary to post.

Fixed.

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55 minutes ago, Jonesin For Some Football said:

This is a good move really.  I don't think I would consider this unless I got 1.2 to gaurantee I get Chase or the top RB on the bored or that 22 pick would have to be early most likely.  With 22 projected to be a weaker class, that might not even be enough.

The thing I am running into with trying to trade for top 3 draft picks is people value Chase's potential more than AJ Brown's production - those people in the top 4 seem less likely to deal than the 5-10 crowd in my 10 team league.  Trading for picks almost always needs to be done a year or 2 in advance, I am finding.  

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3 minutes ago, TVT 0 N S T A said:

The thing I am running into with trying to trade for top 3 draft picks is people value Chase's potential more than AJ Brown's production - those people in the top 4 seem less likely to deal than the 5-10 crowd in my 10 team league.  Trading for picks almost always needs to be done a year or 2 in advance, I am finding.  

That is what we call Rookie Fever, even though we know many of these guys will not live up to the potential we thought they would.

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5 minutes ago, TVT 0 N S T A said:

The thing I am running into with trying to trade for top 3 draft picks is people value Chase's potential more than AJ Brown's production - those people in the top 4 seem less likely to deal than the 5-10 crowd in my 10 team league.  Trading for picks almost always needs to be done a year or 2 in advance, I am finding.  

I have the 1.04. Hit me up, dude.

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43 minutes ago, TVT 0 N S T A said:

The thing I am running into with trying to trade for top 3 draft picks is people value Chase's potential more than AJ Brown's production - those people in the top 4 seem less likely to deal than the 5-10 crowd in my 10 team league.  Trading for picks almost always needs to be done a year or 2 in advance, I am finding.  

I have seen that in my league too to an extent.  People get rookie crazy.  I don't think I'd trade Brown but definitely wouldn't do it unless I was for sure getting one of the top 2 prospects.

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2 minutes ago, kyter1 said:

12 Tm PPR QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, Flex

Gave: 2022 1st 

Got: 2.03 and 2.12

Not guaranteed, but believe the 2022 1st will be late.

I don't really like this trade at all.  We don't know where guys will get drafted or who will be on the board at 15 and 24.  I hate giving up 1sts for unknowns.  I could see a world where this works out but feel you will lose on this type of trade way more often than you win.

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31 minutes ago, Jonesin For Some Football said:

I don't really like this trade at all.  We don't know where guys will get drafted or who will be on the board at 15 and 24.  I hate giving up 1sts for unknowns.  I could see a world where this works out but feel you will lose on this type of trade way more often than you win.

If this was entirely an arbitrage play, it could work out very well.  If the person giving up a late 2022 1st thinks there will be a market for 2.03 when it is OTC, he could conceivably get a better 2022 1st and more.

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12 team PPR, TE premium

Gave: 1.05, 1.10, 3.07, 3.09

Got 1.02 and 3.02

Second year of a complete rebuild, need to consolidate picks, still have 1.01/1.09/2.01/2.10/3.01.

[side bar: i see about 30 rookies that i would pick, i'm sure it will change after the draft]

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1 hour ago, DexterDew said:

12 team PPR, TE premium

Gave: 1.05, 1.10, 3.07, 3.09

Got 1.02 and 3.02

Second year of a complete rebuild, need to consolidate picks, still have 1.01/1.09/2.01/2.10/3.01.

[side bar: i see about 30 rookies that i would pick, i'm sure it will change after the draft]

TE premium I have a tier 1 with 5 players, so I don’t like this particular move. You are simply staying within my tier 1 and shipping off a solid dart throw at 1.10 . If I made this deal I would definitely be the one receiving the 1.05 and 1.10 and be thrilled about it. Everyone has varying tier breaks though and ultimately that is why these deals get done.

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2 hours ago, BigAl21 said:

TE premium I have a tier 1 with 5 players, so I don’t like this particular move. You are simply staying within my tier 1 and shipping off a solid dart throw at 1.10 . If I made this deal I would definitely be the one receiving the 1.05 and 1.10 and be thrilled about it. Everyone has varying tier breaks though and ultimately that is why these deals get done.

Yea I think the most common tier break in TE premium is after 1.04 (Chase, Harris, ETN, Pitts) so this deal makes sense in that regard.

Who is the 5th you have in that tier? Williams? 

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