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****OFFICIAL 2021 OFF- SEASON DYNASTY TRADES****


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16 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

And...?

And that makes a big difference in the value of the 1.1. Sure you could find that guy without the NFL draft capital in someone like Dalvin or Kamara or Taylor but the 1.1 is far more valuable when there’s a standout top back with the NFL draft capital to back it up like the fantasy MVP candidates he mentioned. I don’t see any particular reason Gibson isn’t as likely to be a fantasy stud as any of the RBs from this class given what he showed on the field against NFL players.

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22 minutes ago, Jonesin For Some Football said:

He was 10th so we won't have one that high but Taylor was a 2nd round pick last year and he still has that kind of upside.  Gibson doesn't.  Harris in the right spot does.  Gibson will always be capped and could have injury issues his entire career.  

Interesting, you know this how? Anyone could have injury issues their entire career...

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1 minute ago, Cobbler1 said:

And that makes a big difference in the value of the 1.1Sure you could find that guy without the NFL draft capital in someone like Dalvin or Kamara or Taylor but the 1.1 is far more valuable when there’s a standout top back with the NFL draft capital to back it up like the fantasy MVP candidates he mentioned. I don’t see any particular reason Gibson isn’t as likely to be a fantasy stud as any of the RBs from this class given what he showed on the field against NFL players.

Sorry but this argument is so all over the place I don't really even know how to refute it.

1.1 in fantasy drafts has high-value because it's assigned to the players that are the most valuable at that position - not necessarily where they went in the draft. 

And besides, were not talking about picks where the players hypothetical anymore. We're talking about actual players now.

Najee Harris ran for 26 (!!) touchdowns last year and caught 43 passes and four touchdowns on a team with two teammates who are going to be top 10-ish wide receivers in the NFL draft. What more does a guy have to do? 

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19 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Sorry but this argument is so all over the place I don't really even know how to refute it.

1.1 in fantasy drafts has high-value because it's assigned to the players that are the most valuable at that position - not necessarily where they went in the draft. 

And besides, were not talking about picks where the players hypothetical anymore. We're talking about actual players now.

Najee Harris ran for 26 (!!) touchdowns last year and caught 43 passes and four touchdowns on a team with two teammates who are going to be top 10-ish wide receivers in the NFL draft. What more does a guy have to do? 

No need to apologize for not understanding, I’m happy to simplify. The poster I quoted said he would rather chase MVP candidates in this draft (presumably at Rb) than have someone like Gibson then he listed 4 guys whose profiles we will not see in this draft. This is because those guys were taken in the top 10 of the NFL draft and no rb in this draft will have that draft capital. 
 

Your bolded makes me believe you don’t put much stock in the NFL draft ie draft capital? And that you see the 1.1 equal every year? I strongly disagree with both these things. I like Harris a lot. This wasn’t ever about him as a player.

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5 minutes ago, Cobbler1 said:

No need to apologize for not understanding, I’m happy to simplify. The poster I quoted said he would rather chase MVP candidates in this draft (presumably at Rb) than have someone like Gibson then he listed 4 guys whose profiles we will not see in this draft. This is because those guys were taken in the top 10 of the NFL draft and no rb in this draft will have that draft capital. 
 

Your bolded makes me believe you don’t put much stock in the NFL draft ie draft capital? And that you see the 1.1 equal every year? I strongly disagree with both these things. I like Harris a lot. This wasn’t ever about him as a player.

If you don't think that then we're not having the same discussion.

Nor am I interested in continuing it.

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22 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

If you don't think that then we're not having the same discussion.

Nor am I interested in continuing it.

Probably for the best so you don’t have to defend the bolded in my previous post. Cheers.

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1 hour ago, Cobbler1 said:

Interesting, you know this how? Anyone could have injury issues their entire career...

Nobody knows anything for sure.  Just giving my opinion.  I think the Gibson love is way too generous in here for the most part but I am not immune to being wrong.  Just don't see it there.  I don't see true top 3-5 upside there.  Harris I do.  He was a monster in college and can catch the ball.  Not sure why Gibson is so much more coveted here.

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34 minutes ago, Cobbler1 said:

No need to apologize for not understanding, I’m happy to simplify. The poster I quoted said he would rather chase MVP candidates in this draft (presumably at Rb) than have someone like Gibson then he listed 4 guys whose profiles we will not see in this draft. This is because those guys were taken in the top 10 of the NFL draft and no rb in this draft will have that draft capital. 
 

Your bolded makes me believe you don’t put much stock in the NFL draft ie draft capital? And that you see the 1.1 equal every year? I strongly disagree with both these things. I like Harris a lot. This wasn’t ever about him as a player.

The value does very and I was using specific players as examples because we have a specific player in Gibson to evaluate in the trade.  1.1 is just more valuable than a player like Gibson.  I don't think its really much of a question really either.

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13 minutes ago, Jonesin For Some Football said:

The value does very and I was using specific players as examples because we have a specific player in Gibson to evaluate in the trade.  1.1 is just more valuable than a player like Gibson.  I don't think its really much of a question really either.

Again those players you mentioned have a key aspect in their profile that will be missing from all RBs in this years class. And that very important piece makes this 1.1 less valuable than if Harris were projected to go top 5-10 like those guys mentioned. To the point where someone may prefer a young, big, fast Rb who has produced in the NFL already. That’s all I was saying. 

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14 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

I just don't get why everybody's fawning over a third rounder that had fewer than 15 carries and fewer than 75 yards rushing in 12 of 16 games, and zero touchdowns in half the games. That's all. 

Weird cherry picked stats. He didn’t play 16 games. He had 11 tds in 13 regular season games.

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2 minutes ago, Cobbler1 said:

Weird cherry picked stats. He didn’t play 16 games. He had 11 tds in 13 regular season games.

Because it shows, in a pretty simple manner, that he wasn't all that productive...or even used.

How about 4.0 YPC or less in 8/16? Or that five of the 11 TDs came in two games.

He had a decent year. But that's all it looks like - decent. The expectation that the WFT will up his workload considerably isn't a bet I'm willing to make either. 

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35 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

I just don't get why everybody's fawning over a third rounder that had fewer than 15 carries and fewer than 75 yards rushing in 12 of 16 games, and zero touchdowns in half the games. That's all. 

If you change that to 2nd or 3rd rounder then you're talking about 4 out of the top 10 ranked dynasty running backs right now.

I am not big on Gibson personally, and own him nowhere.  But he did more than D'Andre Swift, JK Dobbins, or Cam Akers last year and was drafted in a similar spot (only roughly 10 picks behind Dobbins/Akers).  I think it's absolutely 100% fair for people to consider him a top dynasty back right now with plenty of upside.

Edited by FreeBaGeL
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7 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Because it shows, in a pretty simple manner, that he wasn't all that productive...or even used.

How about 4.0 YPC or less in 8/16? Or that five of the 11 TDs came in two games.

Yeah but in spite of that I still think Jonathan Taylor will be a good player this year.

Oh whoops, you were talking about Gibson, not Taylor who basically also fits those metrics*

;)

* Technically Taylor was 4.1 YPC or less in 8/16 and 4 of his 11 TDs came in two games, but close enough.

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2 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

If you change that to 2nd or 3rd rounder then you're talking about 4 out of the top 10 ranked dynasty running backs right now.

I am not big on Gibson personally, and own him nowhere.  But he did more than D'Andre Swift, JK Dobbins, or Cam Akers last year and was drafted in a similar spot (only roughly 10 picks behind Dobbins/Akers).  I think it's absolutely 100% fair for people to consider him a top dynasty back right now with plenty of upside.

I was trying to point out that draft capital doesn't matter. And I'm not very high on those other three guys either.

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Just now, FreeBaGeL said:

Yeah but in spite of that I still think Jonathan Taylor will be a good player this year.

Oh whoops, you were talking about Gibson, not Taylor who basically also fits those metrics*

;)

* Technically Taylor was 4.1 YPC or less in 8/16 and 4 of his 11 TDs came in two games, but close enough.

Okay, you got me.

But that's also where I think the discussion is all over the map. Taylor had a lot more usage than Gibson - just like the latter's experience in college. And like I said before, for a group that does a lot of hand wringing about hyper efficiency and touchdown regression - it's mysteriously absent here.

He's an inkblot test. Some people see the next big thing because of the positives, others see the next James Connor. 

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2 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Okay, you got me.

But that's also where I think the discussion is all over the map. Taylor had a lot more usage than Gibson - just like the latter's experience in college. And like I said before, for a group that does a lot of hand wringing about hyper efficiency and touchdown regression - it's mysteriously absent here.

He's an inkblot test. Some people see the next big thing because of the positives, others see the next James Connor. 

I think he will be decent like you said but I want more upside at 1.1 no matter the year.  He doesn't give that to me.  For all the reasons you pointed out.

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Again, I am not personally that high on Gibson but it is a bit surprising to me that people would consider a converted WR who's first experience playing RB was as a rookie in the NFL with no offseason and who walked into that situation and blew away everyone's expectations would be considered a guy who lacks upside.

He's a running back who is in a pretty good situation, can catch, has a 3 down skillset, and came out the first time he'd ever played running back and ran for 4.7ypc over the course of a season in the NFL.  I have no idea what the future holds for Gibson but "capped upside" is the absolute last phrase I would use to describe him.

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11 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Okay, you got me.

But that's also where I think the discussion is all over the map. Taylor had a lot more usage than Gibson - just like the latter's experience in college. And like I said before, for a group that does a lot of hand wringing about hyper efficiency and touchdown regression - it's mysteriously absent here.

He's an inkblot test. Some people see the next big thing because of the positives, others see the next James Connor. 

Fair enough.  Though I think it's fair to point out that Taylor averaged 15 carries per game and Gibson, if we remove the game where he got hurt and left the game after his 2nd carry, averaged a little over 13 carries per game, so it's not a massive difference.

Obviously Taylor projects to get a lot more carries going forward than Gibson but as we've seen time and time again you don't really need 350 carries to be a top fantasy RB in the modern NFL.

250 carries is 15.5 per game.  Gibson just got 13.2 per game as a rookie in his first year playing the position who didn't even have an offseason to work on the position change.

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3 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Again, I am not personally that high on Gibson but it is a bit surprising to me that people would consider a converted WR who's first experience playing RB was as a rookie in the NFL with no offseason and who walked into that situation and blew away everyone's expectations would be considered a guy who lacks upside.

He's a running back who is in a pretty good situation, can catch, has a 3 down skillset, and came out the first time he'd ever played running back and ran for 4.7ypc over the course of a season in the NFL.  I have no idea what the future holds for Gibson but "capped upside" is the absolute last phrase I would use to describe him.

That's not really what's being said. It started as a simple discussion of Gibson versus the 1.1.

Which to me is a discussion of, if we assume a RB at that spot, then it's a discussion of Gibson vs Harris. To me, that's not remotely close. I don't think Gibson has anywhere near the same upside as Harris. 

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1 minute ago, Andy Dufresne said:

That's not really what's being said. It started as a simple discussion of Gibson versus the 1.1.

Which to me is a discussion of, if we assume a RB at that spot, then it's a discussion of Gibson vs Harris. To me, that's not remotely close. I don't think Gibson has anywhere near the same upside as Harris. 

Yeah there are two discussions going on here I think.  The upside thing isn't something you said, but it's absolutely something that @Jonesin For Some Football said and has repeated multiple times, which is what I was responding to in that particular post.  Sorry if that wasn't clear I should have quoted him on that part.

Again to each their own, and "upside" is a pretty subjective thing anyway, so if someone doesn't see that in him then that's fair.  But I think most people do see it in him and with good reason.

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1 minute ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Yeah there are two discussions going on here I think.  The upside thing isn't something you said, but it's absolutely something that @Jonesin For Some Football said and has repeated multiple times, which is what I was responding to in that particular post.  Sorry if that wasn't clear I should have quoted him on that part.

Again to each their own, and "upside" is a pretty subjective thing anyway, so if someone doesn't see that in him then that's fair.  But I think most people do see it in him and with good reason.

I did say that and stand by it.  I believe it.  I trust my eyes and I absolutely don't see a top 3 RB there.  I guess if you do then 1.1 can be worth it but I just don't see it.  It is subjective for sure and I'm sure I'll draft Gibson in a couple of my redraft leagues but that price is just outlandish to me.

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15 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

That's not really what's being said. It started as a simple discussion of Gibson versus the 1.1.

Which to me is a discussion of, if we assume a RB at that spot, then it's a discussion of Gibson vs Harris. To me, that's not remotely close. I don't think Gibson has anywhere near the same upside as Harris. 

Yea that how I thought this all started. First thing I thought was I would rather have Harris than Gibson. TE flip doesn't really move the needle that much to me. 

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I guess I am with @FreeBaGeL in thinking the upside for Gibson is absolutely there.  In fact, I think the cards were stacked against him, which has been mentioned: Covid season, position change, awful QB play versus now.  He has a QB, extra WR to stretch the field and an entire offseason to work his way into the position.  It seems silly to sell a young RB to draft - another young RB.  If Gibson isn't a top 3 to 5 RB - I don't think one exists here either.  

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18 minutes ago, TVT 0 N S T A said:

I guess I am with @FreeBaGeL in thinking the upside for Gibson is absolutely there.  In fact, I think the cards were stacked against him, which has been mentioned: Covid season, position change, awful QB play versus now.  He has a QB, extra WR to stretch the field and an entire offseason to work his way into the position.  It seems silly to sell a young RB to draft - another young RB.  If Gibson isn't a top 3 to 5 RB - I don't think one exists here either.  

@FreeBaGeL is right in that there are multiple discussions going on. I wasn’t directly comparing Harris vs Gibson. In the initial post I bolded I questioned why the 1.1 will give you fantasy MVP upside like CMC Zeke Saquon Gurley when that level of prospect isn’t what we’re looking at with Harris. Got caught up in the weeds a bit with someone after that.

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4 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Gibson's not worth the 1.1.

Unless DFWC somehow stands for "weird scoring format". 

DFWC is Dynasty Fantasy World Championship.  It's a site just like the FFPC except there is also an overall along with trying to win your league title.  There is a $10,000 grand prize if you can beat the 700+ teams (it grows every year).  I joined in 2014 and won the overall my first year (288 teams in 2014).  I also finished 4th overall and 5th overall in a couple of years after once with the same team and with a monster great team I built with a friend of mine menobrown we finished 4th overall a few years back.

It's your basic league format 1 PPR all positions the only main difference is there is an extra flex along with 3 WR's.

Start 11 guys 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex, 1 K, 1 DF.

Edited by Dez
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3 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

This is gonna sound way more aggressive than I intend it to but...it seems like people either don't watch college football or forget what they've seen. :shrug:

I do agree, though, that Pittsburgh is a less than ideal spot. 

Don't worry about sounding aggressive, I'm far from the type to get bent out of shape about disagreement.

I won't disagree that Harris was a better college RB, but Gibson is basically the same age, in a likely better offense, and is FAR more physically talented. Gibson showed he can play at well in the NFL, and it stands to reason he'll only get better as he's learning the position. 2020 feels like Gibson's floor to me. I think there is a reasonable case for him as 2020's best RB. I'd take Taylor over him I guess, but nobody else.

I actually don't even think Harris is the best RB in this class. I'm not sure his lack of speed will play all that well, and for a 230 pounder, he isn't all that powerful. Beyond his college production, I don't see what people love about this guy. Feels like just a decent prospect, who highways of space to run through.

For me, Harris isn't a candidate at 1.1, unless he ends in a perfect situation, and a bunch of other guys both at RB and elsewhere in up in bad ones.

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1 minute ago, travdogg said:

Don't worry about sounding aggressive, I'm far from the type to get bent out of shape about disagreement.

I won't disagree that Harris was a better college RB, but Gibson is basically the same age, in a likely better offense, and is FAR more physically talented. Gibson showed he can play at well in the NFL, and it stands to reason he'll only get better as he's learning the position. 2020 feels like Gibson's floor to me. I think there is a reasonable case for him as 2020's best RB. I'd take Taylor over him I guess, but nobody else.

I actually don't even think Harris is the best RB in this class. I'm not sure his lack of speed will play all that well, and for a 230 pounder, he isn't all that powerful. Beyond his college production, I don't see what people love about this guy. Feels like just a decent prospect, who highways of space to run through.

For me, Harris isn't a candidate at 1.1, unless he ends in a perfect situation, and a bunch of other guys both at RB and elsewhere in up in bad ones.

I totally understand this argument and everyone values new talent differently.  Part of the reason I wouldn't trade a top 3 pick for Gibson honestly.  Just doesn't pass my eye test for that type of value for me.

I will say that I did say he should still be valued as a RB1 which isn't like I'm dogging him hard or anything.  Just think he is getting a little too much love.

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5 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

What more does a guy have to do? 

How about 1000+ yards and 10+ TDs in the NFL?

I don’t give a #### what a kid did on Saturdays. Those are the minor leagues, son. 

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17 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

How about 1000+ yards and 10+ TDs in the NFL?

I don’t give a #### what a kid did on Saturdays. Those are the minor leagues, son. 

David Johnson and Ronald Jones had 1k yards and 8 TDs. Whoop de doo.

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1 minute ago, Andy Dufresne said:

David Johnson and Ronald Jones had 1k yards and 8 TDs. Whoop de doo.

They probably had better college production than Gibson too, eh?

Isn’t that your argument here?

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12 Team SF 

give 2.02

get Jared Goff

I am not saying Goff is a savior, but he has proven a capable NFL QB and getting that for pick 14 in a rookie draft seemed a good move to make for my team which is weak at qb and has no 1st round picks this year.

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3 minutes ago, frae said:

12 Team SF 

give 2.02

get Jared Goff

I am not saying Goff is a savior, but he has proven a capable NFL QB and getting that for pick 14 in a rookie draft seemed a good move to make for my team which is weak at qb and has no 1st round picks this year.

Excellent move for SF...can never have enough QBs in that format and getting a starter at that price is great value.

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40 minutes ago, Chad Parsons said:

12tm SF PPC TE Prem

CEH, 2.01

FOR

Akers, 2.04

Close enough that I’m going to call it rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. I prefer neither RB long term

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14 hours ago, Chad Parsons said:

12tm SF PPC TE Prem

CEH, 2.01

FOR

Akers, 2.04

I like CEH over Akers personally but purely from a value standpoint Akers >> CEH.

Obviously I am a proponent of getting your guy but it feels like the team getting CEH left a lot of value on the table here.  Akers typically a top 10 overall startup pick and CEH a 3rd rounder which is a massive gulf.

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14 team PPR SF

Gave: Russell Wilson, Chubb, Juju

Got: 1.02, 1.09, Dobbins

My team was and is still in rough shape with depth and needs to rebuild. Picks seemed like they would be easier to parlay into depth than the players

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Just now, gabes1919 said:

14 team PPR SF

Gave: Russell Wilson, Chubb, Juju

Got: 1.02, 1.09, Dobbins

My team was and is still in rough shape with depth and needs to rebuild. Picks seemed like they would be easier to parlay into depth than the players

.

Edited by rockaction
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14 hours ago, Chad Parsons said:

12tm SF PPC TE Prem

CEH, 2.01

FOR

Akers, 2.04

I like the Akers side. FreeBaGeL covered why, but I also like Akers over CEH just as a player and fantasy point scorer.

Edited by rockaction
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1 hour ago, gabes1919 said:

14 team PPR SF

Gave: Russell Wilson, Chubb, Juju

Got: 1.02, 1.09, Dobbins

My team was and is still in rough shape with depth and needs to rebuild. Picks seemed like they would be easier to parlay into depth than the players

Nice trade. I can see it either way. I have Dobbins over Chubb and 1.09 over Juju in SF, but Wilson is worth a bit more than 1.02. Fair. 

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23 minutes ago, iamkoza said:

10 tm, ppr

team A got: 2.06, 23 first, zack moss

Team B got: dobbins

Team A offered the trade. I think dobbins is currently overvalued but still this price still feels pretty low.

I’m with you, Dobbins side easily.

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