kutta
Footballguy
Hmm. That’s a tough one. Thomas is my fav of the group, but the total value is on the Chark/Zeke side. I’d probably take what you got
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****OFFICIAL DYNASTY TRADES**** (20 Viewers)
- Thread starter Gottabesweet
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Jefferson should pull that on his own IMO.
Godwin on the other. It could work out but Bird in the hand for me as I think both Bateman and Toney have significant chances to end up busts.
Kamara side but if all this Rodgers drama blows over and he keeps on playing then a big win for that side IMO. Nice gamble.
Don't understand the comments on this one being one sided.
If you looked at this as ADP in startups it would look like this:
2.10 and 6.10 for 2.8, 3.8 and 8.4.
ETA so I goofed up the original post when you look at this way I guess it's one sided.
I don't know how to value Jones in SF but if this league was standard I know I would prefer Swift/Aiyuik over Zeke/Jefferson.
But I goofed up the original post and point and will take an L here.
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Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
The 2nd one seems fair but I'd definitely take Zeke/Jefferson over Swift/Aiyuk. I know I'm lower on Swift than others but Jefferson is by far the best player in this trade.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Depends on your initial strategy and what will be available.
At 14 the last draft I saw could be Tyreek or Derrick Henry. I see Metcalf there sometimes.
Not to mention the possibility of another trade back to maybe pick 30-ish for another future 1st. Still pretty good players on the board there
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
Detroit is already talking about J-Will being a "lead" back. I think some of it is smoke screen but that does make it seem more like a split than Swift's backfield. Plus, Gurley coming in for a visit. A new QB, a new coach who has never coached in the league, and a team that has had 1 1000 yard rusher in the past 15 years. No thanks for overpaying on Swift. I think he is valued too high.
I'm a Niner fan so I like Aiyuk but I'm not buying him as that great either. He did all his damage last year when Deebo and Kittle was hurt. Plus, your telling me Zeke is a mid-6th round pick in start up drafts. I wouldn't trust that site at all. I would say your numbers there are very wrong. There is no way that Jefferson and Zeek are 2.8 and 6.7.
No Detroit is not talking about Williams being the lead back. That is not remotely what Lynn was saying. There was no smokescreen in what he was saying. If you are concerned about Gurely you've not been watching the last few years. I own Jefferson and Swift on the same team and their values are close, but I know Swift is more valuable to that team.
No I'm not telling you Zeke is a mid 6th round in startups. That would be Aiyuk. (ETA- I see the mistake I made, will correct that post. The site is accurate, I'm not.)
The site is 100% accurate for FFPC.
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barackdhouse
Footballguy
FFPC SF not involved:
Team A gave CEH, Pitts
Team B gave Prescott, Irv Smith
Team A gave CEH, Pitts
Team B gave Prescott, Irv Smith
It’s not terrible, just not enough for me. The ADP I looked at you’re generally moving yourself out of top WR range which is why I listed Dobbins and Harris. But you could always try to move back up a few spots or continue moving down as you said.
Just in my experience the top picks in startups are so over valued that many times people are willing to overpay, sometimes massively, to move up (which is one reason why I stopped doing snake draft startups a long time ago.) I would have been looking for a pick bump later in addition to the future 1st or maybe the 10 instead of 14 (assuming 12 teams and snake.)
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Yeah I'm surprised by some of the comments too. I personally like the Swift/Aiyuk side quite a bit but I think it's a perfectly square deal. I love Jefferson, too, but I think this is mostly about people hating on Swift. Hating on Aiyuk, too, I guess.
FWIW Matt Harmon was gushing over Aiyuk in his Reception Perception the other day.
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
I don't believe Williams will be the lead back either but I don't think Swift gets a ton of the carries either. I'm not worried about Gurley because I'm not a Swift owner but if they sign him it shows they don't believe Swift is a bell cow back and as I learned long ago not to trust Detroit RBs. I love his talent though and wish he was playing somewhere else. I know Swift/Jefferson are ranked close to each other for a lot of people. I'm just not one of them.
Swift/Aiyuk are good players and nothing wrong with rostering them at all. I'd just much prefer Jefferson/Zeke and a free Danny Dimes which does nothing for me really but it is SF so he has some value. I'm just really high on Jefferson and I think Zeke has a very good bounce back season even if his fantasy career probably only has about 2 more good years left.
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
I love Aiyuk as a real NFL player. Proud Niner fan since 85. I just know that they don't exactly produce great WRs in fantasy, his numbers last year were mostly without Kittle & Deebo, and a new QB is coming. Just don't see elite fantasy production there but I like having him on my NFL team.
You are right though, this has more to do with the difference in value on Swift & Aiyuk. There are hugely differing thoughts on those two where everyone loves Jefferson and Zeke is proven when Dak gets back. Just a matter of how those miles add up on him and when that wall comes.
Even if I am willing to concede that Swift=Jefferson (which I am not), Zeke goes about 3 rounds earlier than Aiyuk in startups and you’re getting Jones on top in SF. Now Aiyuk could be an ascending talent and Zeke descending, with Jones possibly in his last year to prove he can hang onto the starting QB job. So that side isn’t terrible, but I much prefer the value of the other side.
1st thing I would do is deal Danny Dimes though as I think the Giants will be looking for a replacement soon.
Agree with the first sentence, but disagree that Gurley signals a lack of faith in Swift as a 3 down back.
I bet Gurley gets signed (Holmes was part of the team that drafted him to the Rams) for near league minimum, assuming his physical checks out, and this is a fairly ugly 3 way split this year... something like 40/40/20. The Lions are totally going all in on the 2019 Dolphins tanking strategy... dealing away all their good players for picks, signing vets to one year low cap hit deals, bringing in an entirely new coaching staff... and aiming for a complete rebuild.
Swift is going to disappoint everyone this year in all metrics except possibly efficiency. During the season with the RBBC angst at it's highest will be the time to buy him in anticipation of his true audition as lead back for a completely revamped Lions team in 2022/2023. I think the Williams and Gurley signings are an indication that the Lions don't want to inflict too much wear and tear on their future stud in an essentially lost year.
I believe the talent is there, but I think people aren't going to see it as soon as they are hoping and his value will drop as a result. I think Jefferson is in a value tier above Swift even if you don't buy into this theory... but if you do, that margin is wider.
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Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
Well said and I completely agree for the most part. I will probably be trying to buy low on Swift during the season personally. This trade is buying like he is a top 3 RB though and he isn't even close to that.
I'm not really worried about Swift being a bell cow or not and because I assume he is not, I got him pegged for something in the 45-55% snap count range, if it's much more then that it's because injuries hit or he's playing a lot aligned out wide. I do get a sense the franchise understands it's not in win now mode and see's no benefit to running Swift into the ground. It's not about touches to me but the quality of touches. Kamara's been on of the best fantasy RB's since entered the league but he only averages 11 carries a game, CMC just a shade over 13. To me this is the kind of talent/usage I see in Swift. Ekeler would also be applicable. In my head I got him down as a 10-12 carry/4-5 catch guy, anticipating his total workload to be in the 16-18 touch range.
The fact he plays for the Lions being an issue has been discussed here and for me I not only care about the Lions decal on his helmet but view playing behind this OL as a major asset for Swift. Between the OL and easing back on his carriers his longevity projects well to me, of course injuries and luck always play a part in that as well.
I love Jefferson and actually own him more then Swift but position value of RB over WR is no small thing which is why I tend to view them as equal in value, but again the team I own them both on I believe losing Swift would hurt more which ties back to positional value.
Totally agree. The Swift/Aiyuk side has to hit on all kinds of if's to get in the ballpark realm of production that Jefferson/Zeke have already proven capable of and are likely to repeat for the next couple years.
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
Totally agreed there. I'm a big time believer in building around RBs. I don't hate Swift and wouldn't mind having him but getting Zeke back in that trade makes Swift expendable for the next 2 years IMO. Just don't think the trade is that close. A free Danny Dimes in SF too. I would prefer the Jefferson/Zeke side if he wasn't even included. Swift should be fine, I'm just not sold on him being a top 3 RB ever. I could definitely be wrong though.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I wouldn't bash someone who values Zeke over Swift straight up
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
Kind of depends on the team. I value Zeke or Swift in redraft leagues so if I was going all in for winning a Chip in the next 1-2 years, then there is nothing wrong with Zeke over Swift straight up.
You are definitely right if rebuilding at all or for dynasty value overall. I'd make that trade if I wanted to win now but would definitely want something like another player that could help or a pick with Zeke for Swift in Dynasty leagues.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
In FFPC SF startups Jefferson and Swift are going right next to each other at 2.04/2.05. Yes Zeke is going 3 rounds earlier than Aiyuk. I do think Aiyuk is an ascending player and that he will close this gap, and I really don't have any faith in Jones, but I do agree this is basically a free starting QB in SF (who just got a lot more weapons and Barkley back) and I would look at this as moving Jefferson for Swift and Zeke for Aiyuk (which I don't mind in the least) and although it is giving a QB away it is one that most people hate and there is a small value in clearing roster spot, though at this point in the calendar doesn't carry a ton of weight. If I needed a QB I'd probably do this deal the other way.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
True but either way they signed J-Will, drafted Jermar Jefferson, and brought in Gurley to look at. Swift is still fine but I view Jefferson definitely higher. Zeke definitely over Aiyuk. Plus, they get a free starting QB with added weapons in SF format. Definitely can differ on Swift's value but I find it hard to see why people think that this isn't paying as if Swift is a top 3-5 RB right now and he isn't. It is an overpay. Could pay off though in the long run but would take a lot. I see that side losing this trade easily.
Blick
Footballguy
PantherThunder
Footballguy
14 Team SF rookie draft
Gave up Fitzpatrick, 1.05(would have been Pitts)
Got 1.04(Harris)
Shoulda/Coulda/Woulda gotten a little bag of chips coming back
Gave up Fitzpatrick, 1.05(would have been Pitts)
Got 1.04(Harris)
Shoulda/Coulda/Woulda gotten a little bag of chips coming back
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Twenty-Four Eighty-Four
Footballguy
Not involved, 12 Team PPR, Superflex
Team gave AJ Dillon, 2022 1st, should be late
Team gave Joe Mixon
Team getting Mixon is in win now mode and Mixon is his RB3.
Team gave AJ Dillon, 2022 1st, should be late
Team gave Joe Mixon
Team getting Mixon is in win now mode and Mixon is his RB3.
That one guy
Footballguy
I’ve been wanting to find a better RB3 than David Johnson for my SF team that I feel is a contender, especially if I can buy solid depth. Mixon is one I’ve thought of targeting but I already have Burrow and now J Chase. If it’s just a late first and early 2nd value, I might have to be okay with such reliance on the Bengals offense
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Like Larry Fitzgerald? Why would anyone take that deal. You must mean Fitzpatrick.PantherThunder said:
PantherThunder
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
That's way too light for Mixon, IMO. Dillon is buried by roster, if not by talent. I roster him and have come to no other conclusion than that he's worth something, for sure, but he and a first rounder next year shouldn't fetch Mixon. This year's class isn't supposed to be that deep, though who knows once the season goes along.
rockaction
Footballguy
I don't. Give me Swift.
Reasons: Williams might not be what we think he is in the NFL. He's a tackle breaker, and you generally aren't doing that at the first and second levels of the NFL. Can he get to the third where tackle breaking becomes important?
Shenault was almost replaced by Toney and you should hear the coaches talk about him. They want speed, and they don't think Shenault really has it. Urban Meyer called him "big-bodied" or something like that, and it came across as a backhanded compliment.
Mooney is fine, but how good is he really? I know he charted well and got open deep quite a bit, but the NFL is geared to stop the deep ball unless they're playing that newfangled Cover 7 that Tim Nguyen was trying to explain to everybody the other day in the Athletic.
Swift will be a sixteen-twenty touch guy for sure in Detroit, and if he's lining up in the slot and whatnot, will be a PPR machine.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
Huh. If you see him more as a twelve-sixteen touch guy, I won't disagree too vehemently, but I think you're on the short end of things. And if he is a twelve-sixteen touch kind of guy, then the trade does look different, I will admit.
If we agree on fifteen-sixteen touches per average, then you've got to reassess the trade again, but I'm not sure it tilts it to the Williams side alone. I don't know. I've always liked Swift. The big question was would he hold up on the field, which for him will always be a function of his size, partly how the coaches see him, partly how his body holds up.
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There’s no way for you to know that right now, and even if he is, how much are those touches really going to be worth on a bottom 3 offense? They have a downgrade at QB and just lost by far their best receiver. Their receiving group is laughably bad.
Sounds like some springtime coachspeak that we hear about players literally every year. I know Swift owners want to dismiss Jamaal Williams as being a positively ordinary player(and he may just be that as strictly a rusher) but he’s an above average pass catcher. He is not the guy you wanted to see Detroit go out and sign. It’s going to be a lot of him in the 4th Quarter this year when the Lions are trailing by 17 points. I like Swift. I’ve already said that on this forum multiple times. But I’m not paying what his market value is to acquire him in dynasty.
rockaction
Footballguy
Sure. I wasn't getting on you or saying you didn't like Swift. I was just laying out my reasoning for disagreeing so that people could understand why.
As for the second sentence here, perhaps you only needed to say that before. "I'm not paying what his market value is" is definitely a position where you're not as high on Swift as everybody. So, really, you kind of like him less. I was thinking market value when assessing the trade. It's probably close to even, regardless of which side one takes. I still prefer the Swift side.
For sure. I am kinda “meh” on Shenault, I’m not sure he’ll ever be a big-time difference maker in fantasy. Mooney, however, I am a fan of. Anxious to see what he can do once Fields takes over, as I do believe he is more than just a field stretcher. And I don’t expect much out of Williams this year, but I do like him quite a bit long-term. I’m a Tarheel fan so I had the pleasure of watching him in college(and high school, actually) so I pray it’s not my homer glasses blinding me a little, but I think he’s going to have a good career. I agree the trade is pretty fair, I just lean that side. I wish Swift were on a different team.
rockaction
Footballguy
I was stunned when I was hoping to add Mooney last year after our rookie draft and a Chicago homer nabbed him near the end of that said draft. I had the exact same thought about Fields, and I would bet a lot of people are thinking about the potential for him and Fields deep. That you like him as more than that is interesting, but I don't know enough to comment intelligently. I am gonna pony up one of these days for Matt Harmon's Reception Perception, so I'll know better.
