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****OFFICIAL 2021 OFF- SEASON DYNASTY TRADES****


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24 minutes ago, lardonastick said:

12 tm 0.5ppr SF

Gave Diontae Johnson + 2023 3rd

Got Keenan Allen + 2023 2nd

Really fair deal. Obviously Keenen gets a bump short-term, but he just turned 29. 

Dionte is a great young player, but Big Ben can't have that many years ahead of him, so I do have some concern about the future PIT QB, whoever that is. Also, for now at least he has JuJu, Claypool & Washington in a pretty crowded WR room. I think Dionte emerges as the 1, or at least the "1A", but he's also had some growing pains. 

If the team getting Allen is ready to win-now, this is a good deal for them I'm a little surprised the team giving  up Dionte didn't ask for a 1st back, but a 2nd is still pretty fair value I think. 

FWIW Dynasty Dominator app has the Allen side favored by 33 points (125.64 to 159.23)

 

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1 hour ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

The presence of Hines & (assuming he’s healthy) Mack is not though.

I fully expect Mack to be placed on PUP or outright released during training camp.  He's coming off of a torn Achilles, which is still a death knell for RBS

Edited by tangfoot
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1 minute ago, tangfoot said:

I fully expect Mack to be placed on PUP or outright released during training camp.  He's coming off of a torn Achilles, which is still a death knell for RBS

I thought I'd read that he returned to workouts 3 weeks ago. hmm

Obv Hines and his receptions are the more relevant cap to Taylor's ceiling regardless. 

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Workouts are a far cry from NFL on-field action.  I may be missing the boat on Mack's rehabilitation miracle, but I'm willing to bite that bullet.

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Just now, tangfoot said:

Workouts are a far cry from NFL on-field action.  I may be missing the boat on Mack's rehabilitation miracle, but I'm willing to bite that bullet.

I'll add that I never thought much of him when he was healthy, either.  So this injury just erases him from all consideration.

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3 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

Workouts are a far cry from NFL on-field action.  I may be missing the boat on Mack's rehabilitation miracle, but I'm willing to bite that bullet.

Oh, I'm not hyping up Mack, nor do I know what to expect. Players do come back from torn Achilles though - medicine continues to surprise & impress in that it's hardly a miracle any more. See: Kevin Durant, for example. Klay Thompson seems to be on the same track. 

Can Mack do it? Who knows. But if he does return to the team, it's probably good for Taylor to have a breather back. Hines is the bigger impact. 

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2 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Oh, I'm not hyping up Mack, nor do I know what to expect. Players do come back from torn Achilles though - medicine continues to surprise & impress in that it's hardly a miracle any more. See: Kevin Durant, for example. Klay Thompson seems to be on the same track. 

Can Mack do it? Who knows. But if he does return to the team, it's probably good for Taylor to have a breather back. Hines is the bigger impact. 

I'm still waiting for the first NFL RB to return to his previous level of fitness.  WRs have done it, but no RBs to my knowledge.

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28 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I thought I'd read that he returned to workouts 3 weeks ago. hmm

Obv Hines and his receptions are the more relevant cap to Taylor's ceiling regardless. 

Hines was there last season, though, and Taylor was outstanding during the second half of the season. From weeks 9-17, in PPR Taylor was #4 in RB points (162.8), despite missing a game and despite the fact that Hines was #11 in RB points (114.3). Among RBs who started at least 4 games in that stretch, Taylor was #5 in ppg, behind only Montgomery, Kamara, Cook, and Henry.

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1 minute ago, Just Win Baby said:

Hines was there last season, though, and Taylor was outstanding during the second half of the season. From weeks 9-17, in PPR Taylor was #4 in RB points (162.8), despite missing a game and despite the fact that Hines was #11 in RB points (114.3). Among RBs who started at least 4 games in that stretch, Taylor was #5 in ppg, behind only Montgomery, Kamara, Cook, and Henry.

I don't disagree that Taylor is great & valuable. I see it like Chubb/Hunt - it's a similar situation. Chubb was *amazing* with Hunt there. But how much better could Chubb be if Hunt wasn't there? 

That's why I said it caps his ceiling. 

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2 hours ago, barackdhouse said:

FFPC single QB

I gave Corey Davis, Nico Collins

I got Chris Carson

Surplus of WRs = consolidate for a decent starting RB. I like Collins but if he hits I will profit in like 14 other leagues. 

You stole Carson.

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48 minutes ago, Chad Parsons said:

12tm 2QB 2TE Devy

Isaiah Spiller, Justyn Ross, 23 3rd (likely outside devy option line)

FOR

Gardner Minshew, Antonio Gibson, Ronald Jones

Gimme Mishew Madness, Gibson, Jones side. 

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47 minutes ago, Chad Parsons said:

12tm 1QB

4.04, 4.10 (became Luke Farrell, Jermar Jefferson)

FOR

Benny Snell

I have no opinion on this one unless you're the Harris owner & need the backup. I don't love Snell's stand-alone value, but as a "what they heck RB depth in case of injury" that's pretty darn cheap. 

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3 hours ago, Chad Parsons said:

12tm 2QB 2TE Devy

Isaiah Spiller, Justyn Ross, 23 3rd (likely outside devy option line)

FOR

Gardner Minshew, Antonio Gibson, Ronald Jones

Devy fever, catch it and die.

 

3 hours ago, Chad Parsons said:

12tm 1QB

2.10, 3.08 (became Nico Collins, D'Wayne Eskridge)

FOR

Jalen Reagor

I think I'll bet on the rookies here.  Reagor in a vacuum has "more value", but I think he's going to be a guy who keeps slipping further back all summer long.  I own him in a couple leagues and I think I'm stuck with him, I would definitely accept a trade such as the above.

 

3 hours ago, Chad Parsons said:

12tm 1QB

4.04, 4.10 (became Luke Farrell, Jermar Jefferson)

FOR

Benny Snell

They're all waiver wire fodder.

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6 hours ago, tangfoot said:

I fully expect Mack to be placed on PUP or outright released during training camp.  He's coming off of a torn Achilles, which is still a death knell for RBS

His entire $2M contract they signed him to this off-season is fully guaranteed.

 

5 hours ago, tangfoot said:

I'm still waiting for the first NFL RB to return to his previous level of fitness.  WRs have done it, but no RBs to my knowledge.

What and when is our sample size? Just seems to me like we don't have a lot of recent data on this and  not sure what happened 5-10 years is so relevant.

Mack is actually one of 3 players the Colts acquired this off-season coming of an achilles tear. Eric Fisher and the guy they took in round 2. Granted different positions but it got one of their beat writers to do an article on achilles recover, afraid it's probably behind a paywall at The Athletic but if you can read it: https://theathletic.com/2600367/?source=fbpcadsbc&ad_id=23847502454490092&fbclid=IwAR1oMZG7mQ1mQw-hd1W8iD3FMaKqXsmzYGRl8fMz2uTLr6GvwE05povbB08

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7 minutes ago, menobrown said:

His entire $2M contract they signed him to this off-season is fully guaranteed.

 

What and when is our sample size? Just seems to me like we don't have a lot of recent data on this and  not sure what happened 5-10 years is so relevant.

Mack is actually one of 3 players the Colts acquired this off-season coming of an achilles tear. Eric Fisher and the guy they took in round 2. Granted different positions but it got one of their beat writers to do an article on achilles recover, afraid it's probably behind a paywall at The Athletic but if you can read it: https://theathletic.com/2600367/?source=fbpcadsbc&ad_id=23847502454490092&fbclid=IwAR1oMZG7mQ1mQw-hd1W8iD3FMaKqXsmzYGRl8fMz2uTLr6GvwE05povbB08

I’ll add that I’m not sure why sport is relevant. Durant ruptured his Achilles & a little more than a year later played 48 mins in a playoff game on hardwood. 

That can’t be a hell of a lot different than an NFL player on grass, where they play maybe 30 snaps for a total of what, 8 mins? 

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6 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I thought I'd read that he returned to workouts 3 weeks ago. hmm

Obv Hines and his receptions are the more relevant cap to Taylor's ceiling regardless. 

I think Mack is fine. Taylor has massive single game potential but I think his ceiling is capped by Reich's system.

Mack essentially missed the entire season and Taylor played almost exactly 50% of the snaps in his full games(in other words I backed out the game he missed). This was on the rise to end the season so that's a good sign but this also coinciding with Wilkins getting hurt. I don't anticipate Taylor's snap count rising much myself, I think it will remain in the 50-55% area when all 3 RB's are healthy.

I do think losing so much valuable passing down work to Hines and fact I anticipate Mack working in 10-15% so range does put a little drain on Taylor's upside. I also think for redraft purposes this is pretty much baked into his cost. He's going for a mid to late first these days, if you were talking about him seeing the field like a Dalvin Cook or CMC I think you'd be talking about him being a fairy consensus top 3 kind of pick.

 

 

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15 minutes ago, menobrown said:

I think Mack is fine. Taylor has massive single game potential but I think his ceiling is capped by Reich's system.

Mack essentially missed the entire season and Taylor played almost exactly 50% of the snaps in his full games(in other words I backed out the game he missed). This was on the rise to end the season so that's a good sign but this also coinciding with Wilkins getting hurt. I don't anticipate Taylor's snap count rising much myself, I think it will remain in the 50-55% area when all 3 RB's are healthy.

I do think losing so much valuable passing down work to Hines and fact I anticipate Mack working in 10-15% so range does put a little drain on Taylor's upside. I also think for redraft purposes this is pretty much baked into his cost. He's going for a mid to late first these days, if you were talking about him seeing the field like a Dalvin Cook or CMC I think you'd be talking about him being a fairy consensus top 3 kind of pick.

I couldn't agree more. Thus my Chubb comp, situationally speaking. 

For whatever reason, Taylor simply isn't the high volume stud FF owners were projecting him to be before he saw the field. 

It's a crowded situation. 

As such, despite the Steelers OL issues, I'm not sure there's a whole lot of drop off between Taylor & Harris for 2021. I would be inclined to take Harris in what I'm guessing will be the early to mid 2nd of redraft leagues? Gimme the stud WR in the 1st and Najee Harris in the second to build a bully this year. 

I could be wrong, but it just seems like Taylor will lose more touches to Hines/Mack than Harris will to Snell/whomever else is lurking in PIT. 

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy
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51 minutes ago, menobrown said:

What and when is our sample size? Just seems to me like we don't have a lot of recent data on this and  not sure what happened 5-10 years is so relevant.

To my knowledge, the next RB to come back* from an Achilles tear during his “prime” NFL years will be the first. 

*”Come back” in this sense would be to return to production at or exceeding his level prior to the tear 

Edited by tangfoot
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5 hours ago, lardonastick said:

12 tm 0.5ppr SF, not involved

E. Moore, NYJ + 2023 2nd

for

2022 1st + 2022 1st + 2022 2nd

What the? Moore’s SF ADP in current day is 13ish. Bizarre

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13 hours ago, lardonastick said:

12 tm 0.5ppr SF

Gave Diontae Johnson + 2023 3rd

Got Keenan Allen + 2023 2nd

I prefer the KA side regardless of whether or not the team is rebuilding/contending. He is criminally underrated year in, year out. His game is based on elite level route running and savvy, not elite physical traits, so he probably has another 3-4 years of low/mid WR1 play paired with Herbert. His contract is pretty reasonable for a #1 through 2023.

DJ is still just a dart throw and the chances are he won't ever put up the 100+ target 1100+yrd season KA has averaged for the past 4 years, and has every reasonable chance of doing for the next 3 or so. DJ's QB and OL are huge question marks in comparison to KA as well. 

You get a 2nd vs a 3rd with KA as well... this is a no brainer. An excellent (terrible) example of valuing youth over production on the other side. 

Nice trade for you.

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5 minutes ago, Adso said:

I prefer the KA side regardless of whether or not the team is rebuilding/contending. He is criminally underrated year in, year out. His game is based on elite level route running and savvy, not elite physical traits, so he probably has another 3-4 years of low/mid WR1 play paired with Herbert. His contract is pretty reasonable for a #1 through 2023.

DJ is still just a dart throw and the chances are he won't ever put up the 100+ target 1100+yrd season KA has averaged for the past 4 years, and has every reasonable chance of doing for the next 3 or so. DJ's QB and OL are huge question marks in comparison to KA as well. 

You get a 2nd vs a 3rd with KA as well... this is a no brainer. An excellent (terrible) example of valuing youth over production on the other side. 

Nice trade for you.

In a dynasty format Allen’s age is a liability. Dude’s 29. How much time does he have left? 

In that light I think circumstances matter a lot. Acquiring Allen means you have a win-now team. Ideally he’d help the team getting him to a ‘ship, then flip Allen a year later. Which, at 30, will be challenging.

DJ is a sublimely talented young WR who struggled with drops & attitude last season, but he has a bigtime career ahead of him IMO. 


so it’s not just “youth vs talent” because in this case the youth is also talented. 

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18 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

In a dynasty format Allen’s age is a liability. Dude’s 29. How much time does he have left? 

In that light I think circumstances matter a lot. Acquiring Allen means you have a win-now team. Ideally he’d help the team getting him to a ‘ship, then flip Allen a year later. Which, at 30, will be challenging.

DJ is a sublimely talented young WR who struggled with drops & attitude last season, but he has a bigtime career ahead of him IMO. 


so it’s not just “youth vs talent” because in this case the youth is also talented. 

Like I said, I think KA has another 3-4 years of low/mid WR1 play paired with Herbert left in him. Even if it's more like 2-3, those years will be spent in a system he has mastered with one of the best young QB's in the league. DJ on the other hand has huge question marks at QB and OL and isn't even the #1 WR on his team. He just turned 24... how long will it be until those situations work themselves out in such a way that he can command the number and quality of targets that will let him match for the first time what KA has been doing for years?

KA's success isn't dependent on being younger, stronger, faster than the guys covering him... he is one of, if not the best, route runner in the league. His level of play is a lot less likely to be impacted by turning 30, 31, 32, etc. He turned 29 two months ago btw.

Projecting value out beyond 3 years seems like a losing strategy in dynasty to me; bet you a bottle of homemade hot sauce that KA's production the next 3 years dwarfs DJ's.

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1 minute ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Excuse me, 4. Same difference. 

3-4 actually... and further qualified by the statement regarding his contract through 2023. So... not nearly 5.

Thanks for assuming I'd edit a post to win a pointless debate.

It's ok for us to disagree.

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6 minutes ago, Adso said:

3-4 actually... and further qualified by the statement regarding his contract through 2023. So... not nearly 5.

Thanks for assuming I'd edit a post to win a pointless debate.

It's ok for us to disagree.

We both have our opinions. You’ve more than expressed yours. Have a nice day. 

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9 hours ago, Adso said:

I prefer the KA side regardless of whether or not the team is rebuilding/contending. He is criminally underrated year in, year out. His game is based on elite level route running and savvy, not elite physical traits, so he probably has another 3-4 years of low/mid WR1 play paired with Herbert. His contract is pretty reasonable for a #1 through 2023.

DJ is still just a dart throw and the chances are he won't ever put up the 100+ target 1100+yrd season KA has averaged for the past 4 years, and has every reasonable chance of doing for the next 3 or so. DJ's QB and OL are huge question marks in comparison to KA as well. 

You get a 2nd vs a 3rd with KA as well... this is a no brainer. An excellent (terrible) example of valuing youth over production on the other side. 

Nice trade for you.

Thanks. You laid out many of the same thoughts I had in making the deal. I do consider this team a contender, with Lamar/Herbert/Barkley/AJBrown/Metcalf as my core. Allen to me is an upgrade over Johnson for this season and next. I also like the idea of pairing Herbert and Allen in my lineup.

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9 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

In a dynasty format Allen’s age is a liability. Dude’s 29. How much time does he have left? 

In that light I think circumstances matter a lot. Acquiring Allen means you have a win-now team. Ideally he’d help the team getting him to a ‘ship, then flip Allen a year later. Which, at 30, will be challenging.

DJ is a sublimely talented young WR who struggled with drops & attitude last season, but he has a bigtime career ahead of him IMO. 


so it’s not just “youth vs talent” because in this case the youth is also talented. 

Point taken on Allen's age, but I'm not worried about his value or flipping him. I think he will outscore Johnson over the next two seasons.

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19 minutes ago, lardonastick said:

Point taken on Allen's age, but I'm not worried about his value or flipping him. I think he will outscore Johnson over the next two seasons.

That’s a distinct possibility. But keep in mind that Allen is not without an injury history, and older players tend to get hurt more often. 

I believe I said it was a fair deal, and if the team getting Allen is in “win-now” mode, it makes more sense. 

But if you don’t win-now, you may have mortgaged some of your future.

Not sure how I got painted as the “counterpoint” guy here, since I said it was a fair trade. 

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10 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

In a dynasty format Allen’s age is a liability. Dude’s 29. How much time does he have left?

Keenan Allen has been trade kryptonite for at least 3 years already.  If you own him, you've pretty much been resigned to the idea that he's going to retire from your roster.  The value in acquiring him here is that, as other posters have said, he's pretty much a shoo-in to outscore Diontae for the next 2 seasons, and potentially up to the next four seasons.  And you get the higher draft pick back in return. 

This is a fantastic trade for the team acquiring Keenan assuming that they are trying to win and have no aspirations of ever moving him again for "fair value"

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Just now, tangfoot said:

Keenan Allen has been trade kryptonite for at least 3 years already.  If you own him, you've pretty much been resigned to the idea that he's going to retire from your roster.  The value in acquiring him here is that, as other posters have said, he's pretty much a shoo-in to outscore Diontae for the next 2 seasons, and potentially up to the next four seasons.  And you get the higher draft pick back in return. 

This is a fantastic trade for the team acquiring Keenan assuming that they are trying to win and have no aspirations of ever moving him again for "fair value"

I never argued otherwise. I simply evaluated both sides of the deal, and very specifically said that if the team getting Allen is in win-now mode, it makes the most sense. 

So yes, I agree completely with your post because it agrees completely with what I originally said. 

But it’s not an imbalanced deal. Just circumstances-dependent. 

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15 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I’ll add that I’m not sure why sport is relevant. Durant ruptured his Achilles & a little more than a year later played 48 mins in a playoff game on hardwood. 

That can’t be a hell of a lot different than an NFL player on grass, where they play maybe 30 snaps for a total of what, 8 mins? 

I agree with you on principle and what KD has done has been remarkable but being a RB in the NFL and getting beat on is a different animal than any other in sports.  There is a reason why their career is only like 3 seasons on average or whatever it is.  I think there are valid arguments on both sides but most RBs lose explosiveness after a lower leg injury and even a small loss for someone that wasn't great is a death blow to a career of a RB.

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2 hours ago, lardonastick said:

Point taken on Allen's age, but I'm not worried about his value or flipping him. I think he will outscore Johnson over the next two seasons.

He probably will and I like the trade for you but that doesn't mean that Johnson couldn't still win this trade for the other guy in the long run.  I like the trade personally and would have jumped on it with your team but I get the other side too.

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26 minutes ago, Jonesin For Some Football said:

He probably will and I like the trade for you but that doesn't mean that Johnson couldn't still win this trade for the other guy in the long run.  I like the trade personally and would have jumped on it with your team but I get the other side too.

That’s where I’m coming from. DJ isn’t Allen right now, but there’s certainly potential for him to become that productive, and potentially remain so for longer.

But a team ready to get a ‘ship this year or next is better aligned to have Allen short-term.

it’s a win-win, especially if the team getting DJ is competitive but youthful, and has time to play the long game.

That’s why I took issue with the POV that this was a case of “youth over talent”. That was the only bone I had to pick. Because DJ is definitely talented as well. It’s not an either/or in evaluating this deal. 

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