If Team 1 is straight rebuilding and Team 2 is win now, I actually like this for both sides. I think Davis is an RB2 this year. Maybe even high-end.
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****OFFICIAL DYNASTY TRADES**** (14 Viewers)
- Thread starter Gottabesweet
- Start date
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Seems like an overpay for a 2023 1st. But if those were all extra pieces, sure, why not.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
DropKick
Footballguy
No disrepect to Davis, but if you have any RB depth at all, this is a great move to acquire a 1st for some very replaceable assets.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I agree. This all comes down to depth. I like those pieces, and it also kinda depends on what the other picks involved are going back to the team giving up Davis, but it's a great move if they have the depth to pull it off.
If they're giving up 2022 2nds or 3rds I might have to reassess.
Appreciate the thoughts. For what it’s worth this was right out of a startup auction. A few teams blew their load trying to hoard QBs so I waited and took all of the late WR value. Ended up with 8-10 startable WR and a few other teams had none. That’s why between the dalvin deal and this one I was able to move Diontae, Moore, Higgins, and Robby. I still have AJB, Ridley, Keenan, Woods, Evans, and Pittman. But my QBs were Big Ben, Winston, tyrod, and the DEN QBs, so Stafford was a big get for me. I think I’m very well positioned now for a few years with:Boston said:
Stafford, Ben, Winston
Cook, CEH, Hunt,
AJB, Ridley, Keenan, Woods, Evans, and Pittman
Smith, Gesicki, Trautman.
plus I added a few 2nds in this draft I should be able to use to add pieces as teams start rebuilding.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I gave:
2022 3.xx
2023 1.xx (acquired in the Mahomes deal)
2023 4.xx
i get:
M. Pittman
CC: @barackdhouse
2022 3.xx
2023 1.xx (acquired in the Mahomes deal)
2023 4.xx
i get:
M. Pittman
CC: @barackdhouse
JohnnyU
Footballguy
2023 is the better year to have a first if it's a RB you need, not 2022. However, there are some very good WRs and QBs coming out in 2022.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I suppose. I always tend to view the picks in terms of straight value. Like, a 2023 1st is typically worth about the same as a 2022 2nd.
Seems like targeting players 2 years out is putting a lot of faith in those players to continue to perform/stay healthy.
but that’s certainly a shrewd way to obtain picks, provided things shake out as you expect.
smbkrypt24
Footballguy
This is a bad valuation unless you are the one paying the 2nds for future 1sts.
As to the rest of the post, I agree if you are targeting a specific player. Players underperform, get injured, or have off field issues. But the good thing is that when you collect those picks you don't have to make the selection of the player you are "targeting" until you are on the clock. Late risers could easily replace someone years on down the road.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
not talking about paying a 22 2nd for a 23 1st (for example). I’m talking about how trade partners have consistently valued future picks, in my experience.
Maybe it’s not a full round of value, but no one I’ve ever dealt with has valued a pick 2 years out the same as a pick the following year.
So when I approach a prospective trade partner, I go in with the expectation that a pick 2 or 3 years out is progressively less valuable. I think it’s a completely reasonable valuation, and at least in my experience it’s proved to be accurate time and again both in giving up & obtaining that future pick.
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Twenty-Four Eighty-Four
Footballguy
Agreed, the longer I have to wait, the less valuable it becomes. Part of that too is that I can't reasonably expect the rookie to be an impact player, or maybe should say I can't count on him to be an impact player, until his second year. So if it's a 2024 pick, I can't really expect anything until 2025. And that's a long way off.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yep. See above for the Pittman deal I just made. I had to cough up a 2022 3rd and a 2023 4th specifically because I offered a 2023 1st. Dude told me if it was a 2022 1st he’d take it straight up.
Trade calc had him winning by 30%. Unfortunately the trade calc isn’t a team owner selling me Pittman. lol
That's my thinking too. Seems like the other responses share the same view. I was worried that I there was something off in the way I was viewing the trade and valuing pieces.Jonesin For Some Football said:
I never seem to get lopsided offers in my favor, only the other kind which I post in the 'Bad trade offers' thread.Jonesin For Some Football said:
I don't think it's in my make-up to go into trade discussions with an aim to get over on another owner, I go in with a win-win mindset. The owner getting Gibson + 1st had an earlier deal with a different owner which I think was similarly slanted in his favor.
That trade (completed back in January) was:
Team A (same owner who received Gibson) receives: Aaron Rodgers, CMC, Claypool, 2021 1.10
Team B receives: OBJ, Jacobs, 2021 1.06, 2021 1.12, 2022 1st
Now with Rodgers potentially opting out or holding out, that changes the perception, but at the time, most in our league considered that a steal. Whatever he's doing to get those deals in his favor is working for him.
Now I have to figure out how to target those same fish. The problem I find is that they tend to skew to the other extreme when I try to have trade talks with them, trying to get over on me to recoup the value they lost. Maybe it's because they realize that they lost a previously trade badly and are afraid to make the same mistakes.
Twenty-Four Eighty-Four
Footballguy
12 Team PPR, Dynasty Superflex
Team got Jonathon Taylor
Team got firsts in 22, 23, 24, seconds in 22 and 24, thirds in 23 and 24.
Team got Jonathon Taylor
Team got firsts in 22, 23, 24, seconds in 22 and 24, thirds in 23 and 24.
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
That is nuts. Even with A-Rod opting out I think I choose the Team A side personally. That was an absolute robbery in Jan. We have a guy like that in our league that seems to just rob everyone and I'm not sure how he does it because I'll talk to the same owners (sometimes about the same players) and I can't get anywhere close to that value.That's my thinking too. Seems like the other responses share the same view. I was worried that I there was something off in the way I was viewing the trade and valuing pieces.
I never seem to get lopsided offers in my favor, only the other kind which I post in the 'Bad trade offers' thread.
I don't think it's in my make-up to go into trade discussions with an aim to get over on another owner, I go in with a win-win mindset. The owner getting Gibson + 1st had an earlier deal with a different owner which I think was similarly slanted in his favor.
That trade (completed back in January) was:
Team A (same owner who received Gibson) receives: Aaron Rodgers, CMC, Claypool, 2021 1.10
Team B receives: OBJ, Jacobs, 2021 1.06, 2021 1.12, 2022 1st
Now with Rodgers potentially opting out or holding out, that changes the perception, but at the time, most in our league considered that a steal. Whatever he's doing to get those deals in his favor is working for him.
Now I have to figure out how to target those same fish. The problem I find is that they tend to skew to the other extreme when I try to have trade talks with them, trying to get over on me to recoup the value they lost. Maybe it's because they realize that they lost a previously trade badly and are afraid to make the same mistakes.
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
I like JT a lot and think he has a great year even with Mack/Hines there but dang this is a ton. I guess no picks this year but 3 1sts, 2 2nds, and 2 3rds feels like a team losing all of their draft capital. It is probably a win-win but Taylor has to be a monster for many years for this to pay off.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
this is me exactly. I think the lopsided deals are ones that others offer. I’ve never received such an offer, but I would feel awkward about accepting something completely imbalanced. I’m a big fan of fair play & competitive balance in leagues, so it would put me in an awkward position.
That said, if it’s nearing the trade deadline & I’m out of it but someone wants an asset that’ll put them over true top who i don’t mind moving, I won’t hesitate to squeeze as much value from the deal as possible. That’s a different circumstance I think.
but like you, I approach trades with a win-win philosophy. I want to get a deal done. I don’t want to insult my trade partner. I want to come in low enough that if they accept, awesome! But if they don’t, I’d like them to counter or tell me how far off we are rather than ignore or reject without counter.
In talks for the Pittman deal, that’s a dude with a stacked roster, in win-now mode. I came at him basically saying “i don’t have many players to trade & I’m building for future/depth/upside. I know you don’t need to make a deal, but you’ve got 8 high caliber WRs, so I wouldn’t mind overpaying a little for one. I don’t need to win this deal, but I’d like to get Pittman.”
He said that approach is why he made the deal. He always loves getting future picks for depth, and while he’s a Trojans fan & didn’t really want to move Pittman (one of his auction picks from our 1st year) he was open to negotiating for him.
Maybe I was dumb to take that approach, but I targeted Pittman specifically & I know this dude pretty well. It was the way to get it done.
I think some folks do come out trying to get over on owners in a deal, and to me it’s an instant turn-off. I never like receiving offers that don’t also consider my roster or overall team needs.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Holy crap that’s a lot for Taylor. I like him, but not 3x 1sts & 2x 2nds, 2x 3rds like him.
Probably coulda packaged just 2 of those picks and taken a Javonte or a Najee Harris.
Gimme the picks. That trade is insane to me.
ETA: just ran it in Dynasty Dominator app & this favors the picks side by 146+ points, +44%
.
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Twenty-Four Eighty-Four
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I do. I completely hate it. I don’t think any running back is worth this.
As often as they get hurt, they’re not the best dynasty assets to begin with, but I could never see paying that.
It’s just so much.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I could also see 2x 1sts and 2, 2nds. My calc has that as +5 points to the side getting the picks. That’s far more reasonable.
I might see paying the 3x 1sts (without the 2nds or 3rds) if I’m truly going for it, have a deep roster and really think I get a ‘ship this year and/or next out of it.
but it’s such a volatile game. If the injury bug hits team gave-away-his-future, there’s simply no draft equity to rebuild with, even modestly. As someone who gave up future picks trying to get over the top for 3 years & just had to do a rebuild as a result, I could never see mortgaging my future for any 1 player like this.
all the
+ 1 
= 
This makes the Dalvin Cook deal look like a bargain.
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
That seems about right to me. Because none of the picks are in 2021, I could see 3 1sts since you have to wait until 2024 for the last one. But like I said, that is a bit of an overpay but I can stomach that if I feel I'm one player away. Anything more is just highway robbery and hopefully came with a reach around.I could also see 2x 1sts and 2, 2nds. My calc has that as +5 points to the side getting the picks. That’s far more reasonable.
I might see paying the 3x 1sts (without the 2nds or 3rds) if I’m truly going for it, have a deep roster and really think I get a ‘ship this year and/or next out of it.
but it’s such a volatile game. If the injury bug hits team gave-away-his-future, there’s simply no draft equity to rebuild with, even modestly. As someone who gave up future picks trying to get over the top for 3 years & just had to do a rebuild as a result, I could never see mortgaging my future for any 1 player like this.
all the
This makes the Dalvin Cook deal look like a bargain.
Twenty-Four Eighty-Four
Footballguy
That came out wrong. He was negotiating with me and the other guy at the same time. I was on the ropes for three firsts but when it became more than that I was out.
Twenty-Four Eighty-Four
Footballguy
12 Team PPR Superflex Dynasty
I gave a 2022 third
I got Alexander Mattison
I gave a 2022 third
I got Alexander Mattison
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Oh thank god. I was about to ask where to send flowers for your team’s funeral.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I really like this deal. Third round pick for a guy who is one injury away from impact player is a bargain.
you could also theoretically try to flip him to the Dalvin cook owner for a profit.
nice pull.
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TVT 0 N S T A
Footballguy
I know not a lot of people are hot on Zeke, but somehow I was able to pry him for a ridiculous discount.
Got: Zeke
Gave: Melvin Gordon, Kenyan Drake 2021: #12 pick.
1QB, PPR - dude has ZERO RB depth and now has 3rd pick and 12th pick to possibly acquire. I have the 1.1, 1.2 and 1.7 (then no picks remaining for the draft tonight). JaMarr Chase will probably fall to him but he will likely take ETN due to his lack of depth. Yikes.
Got: Zeke
Gave: Melvin Gordon, Kenyan Drake 2021: #12 pick.
1QB, PPR - dude has ZERO RB depth and now has 3rd pick and 12th pick to possibly acquire. I have the 1.1, 1.2 and 1.7 (then no picks remaining for the draft tonight). JaMarr Chase will probably fall to him but he will likely take ETN due to his lack of depth. Yikes.
Twenty-Four Eighty-Four
Footballguy
Yeah if I decide to flip him, I'll wait so it's not so obvious I'm making a profit. Or I'll hold and like you said, he could make an impact even gain value.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I’m very high on him at his current price. I was inches from getting him for 2x 2023 1sts and Samuels.
While you didn’t get him at a bargain price, I do like this deal for you. I see Gordon as short on time in a RBBC with a really good player nipping at his heels, Drake in a RBBC with a talented Jacobs.
the 1.12 makes it a little pricey, but you’re not gonna pick the next Zeke at 1.12x so....
Good trade. Undeniable upside. If he hits it’s more than worth what you paid.
BRB, I need to go offer JT for Godfather offers to all the Tacos in my various leagues.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
I love this deal. I am higher on Zeke than most (at least for the next 2 years). I think Gordon and Drake don't move the needle for me much at all, especially after this year when Williams kicks Gordon to the curb. 1.12 isn't high enough to consider this even close to too much. I'd jump on this.
DropKick
Footballguy
I realize the future 1st is discounted because it's so far out but a first is still a first...
You're that high on Pittman? Not saying he can't or won't succeed but there are enough question marks that I'm surprised one would pay this much. Curious about roster size... every season has its surprises and I'm usually able to grab a useful WR from the wire in leagues with 16-17 players rostered.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
We roster 30 players.
Acquiring young upside talent is expensive. I believe I overpaid by a 2022 3rd in my estimation. I don’t care about the 2023 4th.
The owner is a Trojan fan, and I knew it would be expensive. he’s also stacked & didn’t *need* to make any trade to be competitive. That’s always gonna mean paying more. But in addition to roster sizes, my trade partner was just about the only team that could spare a young and talented wide receiver, and who didn’t mind trading for picks and not getting any players going back the other way. Since this was the end of a rebuild I didn’t want to lose any players to get one.
I am actually really high on Pittman. I think he is the best physical specimen on the roster at WR, and he really came on later in the season after his calf issue. I believe he’s the future WR1 for Indy, and it may even be this year. I wanted more than just a “useful wide receiver” - I wanted potential breakout receiver.
The first rounder is one that I got back in my Patrick Mahomes trade. Yes, it is two years out and I agree it does have value. But I felt like I needed one more young upside wide receiver to complete my team rebuild.
I agree that it was a slight overpay. But context is important here - it filled a need for my team, and I had limited trade partners to get something like this done with. I don’t necessarily recommend everyone paying this much for Pittman, but in my case i felt like it made a lot of sense to do so.
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DropKick
Footballguy
Context for the other team is important too... He may have drafted him high and didn't perceive any drop in value after the COVID/injury rookie season.
I don't mind an overpay to get a specific target that you want... The shift from Rivers to Wentz will be interesting. Could turn out to be a great trade.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
yeah. Even more important I think.
He was one of his original startup auction picks, and like I said, he had zero reason to make a deal as his team is 100% win-now & he has a plethora of young talent.
But knowing the dude & what a draft junkie he is, I know he can never resist picks.
that’s one of the things about trades most folks seem to forget - what’s the interest of your trade partner? No one’s gonna give you a great deal on anyone if they don’t need to make a trade.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
FFPC
I gave Drake, Tua, Long
I got Hurts, 2022 2nd
I gave Drake, Tua, Long
I got Hurts, 2022 2nd
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I’m much higher on Hurts prospects than I am Tua, and I have no idea what to expect from Drake in LVR, so I like this deal for you.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I had Tua on the outside of my roster cuts looking in. This is my 3rd QB for what will probably be my 2nd QB now. And now I only have maybe one share of Drake left. I don't need his production as my RB4. Did not think I would wake up to an offer to clear two roster spots and get paid to do it.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
In that light I like it even more.
the only thought is I wish Hurts had Tua’s weapons. Philly’s WRs don’t excite me much.
Twenty-Four Eighty-Four
Footballguy
12 Team PPR Superflex
Team A got QB Trey Lance
Team B got WR Ja'Marr Chase
Team A got QB Trey Lance
Team B got WR Ja'Marr Chase
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I would think in a superflex Lance might get an extra pick in this trade, like a 3rd or something. That said, just seems like two teams that wished they’d had each other‘s picks in the draft.
I’m assuming the team getting Lance is fine at wide receiver I need to quarterback? and vice versa?
fair deal. less risk on the Chase side, as quarterbacks fail more often than WRs.
smbkrypt24
Footballguy
I agree with this analysis. In my superflex league Lance went 1.02 and Chase 1.05. So I would also expect a little something added to Chase even though I prefer Chase straight up.
