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****OFFICIAL 2021 OFF- SEASON DYNASTY TRADES****


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What we're getting at is some sort of intrinsic value based on the anticipated VBD by rookie draft position, likely based on historical data. I'm sure someone has done this but I'm not sure where. The plot of VBD (VBD on the y, rookie pick # on the x) I imagine starts very high and decreases exponentially as it approaches 0. Point being is that once you get past the first few picks in most drafts the plot is quite flat, which equates to a small difference in player outcomes.

We agree that the 1.07 is worth much more than the 1.12 but probably not as much as the actual numbers dictate. Current value does suggests 1.07 > Allen though, that much we can agree on

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No, they won't accept

It's a bit much to say the trade should be overturned. It's just a bunch of junk for a bunch of junk.

I don't know why so many people are saying that this is a fair return (despite preferring CMC as they should). It isn't. This is a fraction of what it should cost for a guy like CMC, either that or th

I used the 2.7 rather than 1.12 because that was actually being discussed further up the page. Obviously the difference would be less pronounced at 1.12.

I left out the most recent years because they include many players for whom we don't have a good sense yet of the career value of.

I'd rather have gone back five to ten more years to look at players we now know the whole career path of. Hard to find data though.

The graph of "eventual annual FP" vs. "ADP" graph would be quite interesting if someone has the time and inclination to compile it.

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Couple years ago its guys like freeman and beckham vs Marquis Lee and Terrance West, but meh, why look at that.

Bottom line, Allen is a dud moving forward. Coulda/shoulda done much better with pick 7.

OK. Let's remember to bump this next year and compare notes.

And according to my notes, Freeman had an ADP of 1.12 and Beckham was 1.05 (before 1.07) so yes, That year the 1.12 had MUCH more value than the 1.07.

Edited by kutta
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Ok, let me help us get back to posting actual trades.

All of these trades have gone down in last 10 days or so, all 12 team leagues, FFPC scoring format:

Trade 1:

Team A gave: Allen Robinson

Team B gave:Demaryious Thomas, Mark Ingram, Jeremy Hill

Trade 2:

Team A gave: Lockett and Perriman

Team B gave: Khiry Robinson and Kelce

Trade 3:

Team A gave: Donte Moncrief

Team B gave: Kelvin Benjamin and Charles Sims

Team B is same team for all of those trades listed above and is new owner taking over team.

Trade 4:

Team A gave: Rawls, 2.3 and 4th

Team B gave: 1.8 and 1.10

Trade 5:

Team A gave: Martellus Bennett

Team B gave: Garcon

All of those trades listed above are in the same league.

All of these trades listed below are in the same league:

Trade 6:

Team A gave: Barnridge, Morris and Mel Gordon

Team B gave: 1.3, 2.3, 2.10 and Ivory

Trade 7:

Team A gave: Latavius Murray

Team B gave: Mel Gordon and Doug Baldwin

Team B is the same team in both trades and is also a new owner taking over a team.

Trade 8:

Team A gave: Devonta Freeman

Team B gave: Yeldon and 4.5

All I will say on these deals is it confirms something I've always thought to be true. When a new owner takes over a team you need to quickly go after players you want on that team, usually the best values to be had on takeover teams.

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Ok, let me help us get back to posting actual trades.

All of these trades have gone down in last 10 days or so, all 12 team leagues, FFPC scoring format:

Trade 1:

Team A gave: Allen Robinson

Team B gave:Demaryious Thomas, Mark Ingram, Jeremy Hill

Trade 2:

Team A gave: Lockett and Perriman

Team B gave: Khiry Robinson and Kelce

Trade 3:

Team A gave: Donte Moncrief

Team B gave: Kelvin Benjamin and Charles Sims

Team B is same team for all of those trades listed above and is new owner taking over team.

Trade 4:

Team A gave: Rawls, 2.3 and 4th

Team B gave: 1.8 and 1.10

Trade 5:

Team A gave: Martellus Bennett

Team B gave: Garcon

All of those trades listed above are in the same league.

All of these trades listed below are in the same league:

Trade 6:

Team A gave: Barnridge, Morris and Mel Gordon

Team B gave: 1.3, 2.3, 2.10 and Ivory

Trade 7:

Team A gave: Latavius Murray

Team B gave: Mel Gordon and Doug Baldwin

Team B is the same team in both trades and is also a new owner taking over a team.

Trade 8:

Team A gave: Devonta Freeman

Team B gave: Yeldon and 4.5

All I will say on these deals is it confirms something I've always thought to be true. When a new owner takes over a team you need to quickly go after players you want on that team, usually the best values to be had on takeover teams.

Trade 1: I like Robinson, but too much to pay imo.

Trade 2: Lockett vs. Kelce? Depends on positional needs. Pretty even.

Trade 3: Moncreif and Benjamin are players I have ranked as similar risk/rewards. Since I'm not sold on Sims I'll take the Moncreif side and free up a roster spot.

Trade 4: 1.10 to 2.3 is not a huge dropoff. I'd happily trade a low 1st for Rawls.

Trade 5: Not excited about either of these guys, and could both be on new teams next season. No idea.

Trade 6: 1.3 is the best asset in the trade, but unlike many I'm still a Gordon believer. If the team is "win now" I'll take the players. If it's "build for future" give me the picks.

Trade 7: Gordon and Baldwin, fairly easily. (See note on trade 6.)

Trade 8: Freeman.

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Couple years ago its guys like freeman and beckham vs Marquis Lee and Terrance West, but meh, why look at that.

Bottom line, Allen is a dud moving forward. Coulda/shoulda done much better with pick 7.

OK. Let's remember to bump this next year and compare notes.

And according to my notes, Freeman had an ADP of 1.12 and Beckham was 1.05 (before 1.07) so yes, That year the 1.12 had MUCH more value than the 1.07.

According to all my drafts, no.

According to your thoughts, I would imagine you have NEVER drafted a player in the middle of the first round. In every league, every year, you can get so much more value (according to your notes) by trading back. Then you could have traded a 2nd for Allen and likely had another 2nd (equal to pick 7) to work with.

Edited by ghostguy123
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FFPC 12 team dynasty (1.5 PPR for TE)

Roethlisberger

Dez Bryant

Coby Fleener

for

Carson Palmer

Jarvis Landry

Jimmy Graham

pick 5

give me the Dez side by a fair margin

I actually have this one as fairly even but with a slight edge to team getting Landry if I had to decide between the two.

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FFPC 12 team dynasty (1.5 PPR for TE)

Roethlisberger

Dez Bryant

Coby Fleener

for

Carson Palmer

Jarvis Landry

Jimmy Graham

pick 5

give me the Dez side by a fair margin

I actually have this one as fairly even but with a slight edge to team getting Landry if I had to decide between the two.

I am going Dez side here.

Roethlisberger>>>Palmer.

Graham is a giant question mark. If he comes back good from this injury, he will be the first. I know players are coming back from injuries better than ever each year that goes by, but nobody has come back strong from a torn patellar yet.

Dez>>>.Landry and pick 5 this year.

It's not some huge landslide or anything, but in a league of studs I will go with a top 3-4 QB and a top 5 WR.

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I'll agree with ghostguy on the Ben/Dez deal. Someone is getting a big injury discount on Dez there.

Like the picks better than Diggs, but that one is interesting. At midseason folks were ready to annoint him the next can't miss WR, and deal picks to get him. Now his value seems to be nearly as low as it was at season start.

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Couple years ago its guys like freeman and beckham vs Marquis Lee and Terrance West, but meh, why look at that.

Bottom line, Allen is a dud moving forward. Coulda/shoulda done much better with pick 7.

OK. Let's remember to bump this next year and compare notes.

And according to my notes, Freeman had an ADP of 1.12 and Beckham was 1.05 (before 1.07) so yes, That year the 1.12 had MUCH more value than the 1.07.

According to all my drafts, no.

According to your thoughts, I would imagine you have NEVER drafted a player in the middle of the first round. In every league, every year, you can get so much more value (according to your notes) by trading back. Then you could have traded a 2nd for Allen and likely had another 2nd (equal to pick 7) to work with.

No idea what this even means, but I'm done with this one. I think you over value the mid/late first round picks and you think I under value them. Fine. Let's move on.
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1.1 for Devante Parker? Or am I offering too much? Only other pick is late first.

Even if you like Parker better than Treadwell/Doctson/Elliott, there's likely better value to be had trading away 1.1 for a later pick and dealing that pick for Parker. Else package your current later pick with a second or other assets to deal for Parker, and keep your 1.1. Edited by Arodin
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I'll agree with ghostguy on the Ben/Dez deal. Someone is getting a big injury discount on Dez there.

Like the picks better than Diggs, but that one is interesting. At midseason folks were ready to annoint him the next can't miss WR, and deal picks to get him. Now his value seems to be nearly as low as it was at season start.

I don't disagree with any points raised by ghostguy in the Dez deal and like I said I think it's close. But I don't see it as getting Dez at injury discount. Now we can discuss or disagree with what see these players doing in the future but if you take the 3 best years of Dez' career he averaged 19 FPG, in this format Landry put up 17.2 last year.

That's a 1.8 PPG difference and to me that's not so much to pay to get 4 years younger and what I view as a very valuable #5 overall pick and value of Graham over Fleener which I think has value for trade purposes if nothing else.

In terms of trying to project their future I would assume Dez returns to 2012-14 version of Dez, those 3 years I mentioned earlier. I do however think the time to trade him will be next off-season, if not now for the right haul. No one need agree with me on this but I just don't have a good feeling on Dez starting around 2-3 years from now. Partly due to potential QB issues but also because I have concerns how Dez game will translate as he starts approaching 30 when he's no longer just able to outrun and out jump everyone and will need to rely more and more on the cerebral part of the game.

As for Landry I'm a huge fan of consistency and I just know from last year I hated facing him, felt like he was pin pricking me to death with all those short catches. His catch total will be hard to maintain but he can do better on TD's and in general I see a lot of Hines Ward to his game.

But just to be clear, no way I'm trading Dez for Landry straight up, I just like the 1.5 and Graham over Fleener part and that gets me there.

As for Diggs I think the hype was actually justified in terms of the type of player I think he is, which is I'm trying to say I think he's legit but started getting nicked up and most of all feel prey to overly conservative gameplan which probably won't change a lot next season. But if you can be patient, I think the Vikings will mirror what we saw with Seattle and a gradual opening of the offense and that will become more pronounced when Peterson leaves or just gets to old to get it done. So I'd rather have Diggs than those picks.

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1.1 for Devante Parker? Or am I offering too much? Only other pick is late first.

I like him more than any WR in this class but to soon to make that move. Got to allow the hype for these rookies to percolate then if you want Parker you get Parker PLUS for the 1.1 or maybe you can swing the late first PLUS to get Parker.

Elliot is going to be in demand wherever he goes but if he ends up in a homerun spot like Dallas or Indy he'll rival Gurley and Bell IMO for #1 dynasty RB and that's how I'd be pricing this pick right now. I'd need a top 10 overall type player to move that pick.

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1.1 for Devante Parker? Or am I offering too much? Only other pick is late first.

I like him more than any WR in this class but to soon to make that move. Got to allow the hype for these rookies to percolate then if you want Parker you get Parker PLUS for the 1.1 or maybe you can swing the late first PLUS to get Parker.

Elliot is going to be in demand wherever he goes but if he ends up in a homerun spot like Dallas or Indy he'll rival Gurley and Bell IMO for #1 dynasty RB and that's how I'd be pricing this pick right now. I'd need a top 10 overall type player to move that pick.

It's a pretty good year to have the 1.01. Different story for any 1st OTHER than the 1.01 though. Just have to wait for the hype to get going in a couple months.

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Ok, let me help us get back to posting actual trades.

All of these trades have gone down in last 10 days or so, all 12 team leagues, FFPC scoring format:

Trade 1:

Team A gave: Allen Robinson

Team B gave:Demaryious Thomas, Mark Ingram, Jeremy Hill

Trade 2:

Team A gave: Lockett and Perriman

Team B gave: Khiry Robinson and Kelce

Trade 3:

Team A gave: Donte Moncrief

Team B gave: Kelvin Benjamin and Charles Sims

Team B is same team for all of those trades listed above and is new owner taking over team.

Trade 4:

Team A gave: Rawls, 2.3 and 4th

Team B gave: 1.8 and 1.10

Trade 5:

Team A gave: Martellus Bennett

Team B gave: Garcon

All of those trades listed above are in the same league.

All of these trades listed below are in the same league:

Trade 6:

Team A gave: Barnridge, Morris and Mel Gordon

Team B gave: 1.3, 2.3, 2.10 and Ivory

Trade 7:

Team A gave: Latavius Murray

Team B gave: Mel Gordon and Doug Baldwin

Team B is the same team in both trades and is also a new owner taking over a team.

Trade 8:

Team A gave: Devonta Freeman

Team B gave: Yeldon and 4.5

All I will say on these deals is it confirms something I've always thought to be true. When a new owner takes over a team you need to quickly go after players you want on that team, usually the best values to be had on takeover teams.

Well that is one way to take control of a team. Although I think the first guy lost every deal easily by a fair to good margin on value

FFPC 12 team dynasty (1.5 PPR for TE)

Roethlisberger

Dez Bryant

Coby Fleener

for

Carson Palmer

Jarvis Landry

Jimmy Graham

pick 5

Give me Dez

12 team PPR: 1QB 1RB 3WR 1TE 1Flex

Stefon Diggs

for

1.11, 2.09

Picks pretty easily

12 team PPR, 4 pts for passing TD

A gives: Duke Johnson, J. Matthews, Bortles

B gives: Hilton, 1.08, Mariota

Hilton

PPR (Zealots)

Team A: Gave Andrew Luck & rookie pick 3.05.

Team B: Gave Lamar Miller/Allen Robinson/Jay Ajayi

Has to be a 2QB or superflex. No QB is worth ARob in a start 1QB league

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Ok, let me help us get back to posting actual trades.

All of these trades have gone down in last 10 days or so, all 12 team leagues, FFPC scoring format:

Trade 1:

Team A gave: Allen Robinson

Team B gave:Demaryious Thomas, Mark Ingram, Jeremy Hill

Trade 2:

Team A gave: Lockett and Perriman

Team B gave: Khiry Robinson and Kelce

Trade 3:

Team A gave: Donte Moncrief

Team B gave: Kelvin Benjamin and Charles Sims

Team B is same team for all of those trades listed above and is new owner taking over team.

Trade 4:

Team A gave: Rawls, 2.3 and 4th

Team B gave: 1.8 and 1.10

Trade 5:

Team A gave: Martellus Bennett

Team B gave: Garcon

All of those trades listed above are in the same league.

All of these trades listed below are in the same league:

Trade 6:

Team A gave: Barnridge, Morris and Mel Gordon

Team B gave: 1.3, 2.3, 2.10 and Ivory

Trade 7:

Team A gave: Latavius Murray

Team B gave: Mel Gordon and Doug Baldwin

Team B is the same team in both trades and is also a new owner taking over a team.

Trade 8:

Team A gave: Devonta Freeman

Team B gave: Yeldon and 4.5

All I will say on these deals is it confirms something I've always thought to be true. When a new owner takes over a team you need to quickly go after players you want on that team, usually the best values to be had on takeover teams.

Well that is one way to take control of a team. Although I think the first guy lost every deal easily by a fair to good margin on value

FFPC 12 team dynasty (1.5 PPR for TE)

Roethlisberger

Dez Bryant

Coby Fleener

for

Carson Palmer

Jarvis Landry

Jimmy Graham

pick 5

Give me Dez

12 team PPR: 1QB 1RB 3WR 1TE 1Flex

Stefon Diggs

for

1.11, 2.09

Picks pretty easily

12 team PPR, 4 pts for passing TD

A gives: Duke Johnson, J. Matthews, Bortles

B gives: Hilton, 1.08, Mariota

Hilton

PPR (Zealots)

Team A: Gave Andrew Luck & rookie pick 3.05.

Team B: Gave Lamar Miller/Allen Robinson/Jay Ajayi

Has to be a 2QB or superflex. No QB is worth ARob in a start 1QB league

It's a 1QB start league. Zealots doesn't offer 2QB or Superfex leagues....hopefully soon.

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14 team Dynasty:

Devonta Freeman for 2016 1st Rd pick (#4 overall), 2017 2nd Rd. pick and 2018 1st Rd pick.

Team with Freeman also has Leveon Bell, L. Miller, Gio Bernard and CJ. Anderson.

Who's winning this one?

Team that got Freeman.

Agreed.

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Had a few trades this past week won't say my side, yet. All are 12tm PPR, last one is 14tm.

Team A: Cooks

Team B: Martavis Bryant, 1.10, 2.10

Team A: R.Cobb, Powell, 2.01

Team B: Hurns, J.Gordon, 1.12, 4.12, 5.12

Team A: J.Matthews, M.Lee, 1.08, 4.08

Team B: Cooks, Powell

Team A: D.Adams

Team B: Riddick, 2.10

Team A: J.Matthews, 1.14, 2.02

Team B: D.Hopkins

Bryant.

Gordon.

Matthews.

Adams.

Hopkins.

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14 team Dynasty:

Devonta Freeman for 2016 1st Rd pick (#4 overall), 2017 2nd Rd. pick and 2018 1st Rd pick.

Team with Freeman also has Leveon Bell, L. Miller, Gio Bernard and CJ. Anderson.

Who's winning this one?

Team that got Freeman.

Agreed.
I'll be the odd man out, but I like the picks. It's a lot of firepower when you are already strong at RB.
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14 team Dynasty:

Devonta Freeman for 2016 1st Rd pick (#4 overall), 2017 2nd Rd. pick and 2018 1st Rd pick.

Team with Freeman also has Leveon Bell, L. Miller, Gio Bernard and CJ. Anderson.

Who's winning this one?

Team that got Freeman.

Agreed.
I'll be the odd man out, but I like the picks. It's a lot of firepower when you are already strong at RB.

Not that odd.

I don't generally buy RB with top draft picks in the offseason unless I really believe in them long term

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14 team Dynasty:

Devonta Freeman for 2016 1st Rd pick (#4 overall), 2017 2nd Rd. pick and 2018 1st Rd pick.

Team with Freeman also has Leveon Bell, L. Miller, Gio Bernard and CJ. Anderson.

Who's winning this one?

Seem like ludicrous value for Freeman. Are we sure he'll even start next year?

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14 team Dynasty:

Devonta Freeman for 2016 1st Rd pick (#4 overall), 2017 2nd Rd. pick and 2018 1st Rd pick.

Team with Freeman also has Leveon Bell, L. Miller, Gio Bernard and CJ. Anderson.

Who's winning this one?

Seem like ludicrous value for Freeman. Are we sure he'll even start next year?

That's why I'm unloading him. Love his ability but I can't trust Shanahan to be able to put a competent offense on the field.

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12 team PPR

Team A got: Ty Montgomery and Justin Hardy

Team B got: Michael Crabtree and Jesse James

crab

FFPC 12 team dynasty (1.5 PPR for TE)

Roethlisberger

Dez Bryant

Coby Fleener

for

Carson Palmer

Jarvis Landry

Jimmy Graham

pick 5

dez side, if jimmy had a different injury itd be more even tho

12 team PPR: 1QB 1RB 3WR 1TE 1Flex

Stefon Diggs

for

1.11, 2.09

picks probably

1.1 for Devante Parker? Or am I offering too much? Only other pick is late first.

love parker, but thats too much

12 team dynasty PPR start 1 QB

Team A gets Cam Newton

Team B gets Big Ben, Jordy Nelson

Cam side

PPR (Zealots)

Team A: Gave Andrew Luck & rookie pick 3.05.

Team B: Gave Lamar Miller/Allen Robinson/Jay Ajayi

robinson side by a good deal

12 team PPR, 4 pts for passing TD

A gives: Duke Johnson, J. Matthews, Bortles

B gives: Hilton, 1.08, Mariota

close, but the bortles side

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14 team Dynasty:

Devonta Freeman for 2016 1st Rd pick (#4 overall), 2017 2nd Rd. pick and 2018 1st Rd pick.

Team with Freeman also has Leveon Bell, L. Miller, Gio Bernard and CJ. Anderson.

Who's winning this one?

Seem like ludicrous value for Freeman. Are we sure he'll even start next year?

That's why I'm unloading him. Love his ability but I can't trust Shanahan to be able to put a competent offense on the field.

Huh? You don't trust the coach who just oversaw him have the best fantasy season of any RB in the NFL? Never heard the coach regression theory before.

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14 team Dynasty:

Devonta Freeman for 2016 1st Rd pick (#4 overall), 2017 2nd Rd. pick and 2018 1st Rd pick.

Team with Freeman also has Leveon Bell, L. Miller, Gio Bernard and CJ. Anderson.

Who's winning this one?

Any idea on the 2018 1st? I know it's a couple years away, but you still might be able to tell if the team will be good or not, and also would help if we knew if the owner ever has any success.

Assuming it's a complete random future 1st, I think this one is a toss up. I probably lean Freeman if I have a really good team and a deal like this would not deplete my resources (such as youth and picks).

Seems like it would have made more sense to deal Freeman for a decent youthful established WR (if possible)

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  • Gottabesweet changed the title to ****OFFICIAL 2021 OFF- SEASON DYNASTY TRADES****

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