Bell side especially with the superflex, since super tends to push UP the value of late firsts relative to traditional leagues...
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****OFFICIAL DYNASTY TRADES**** (22 Viewers)
- Thread starter Gottabesweet
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Well it also pushes up the value of Dak, by a lot. And while I agree with you on the late 1sts, maybe not as much this year with the really weak QB class.
But yeah, I'll still take the Bell side by a bit.
JPeso
Footballguy
Give me Prescott, Gurley, Henry here. I'm a Dak believer, 8+ years of 22+ PPG is an anchor to a superflex lineup.
JPeso
Footballguy
JPeso
Footballguy
JPeso
Footballguy
Robinson and flip.12 team PPR Start QB/ 2RB/ 3 WR/ TE/ Flex
Gaveiggs, Pryor and 3.09
Got: Allen Robinson
-OZ-
Footballguy
Assuming you can flex TE or an idp league, Henry and the picks (not close imo). If neither is true probably watkins but it's close.
That's a tough one, could see taking either side. I think I'd lean 1.02 but close. If Howard falls to 10 (maybe unlikely but not impossible) that's a big win imo.
Assuming 12 team, non idp I'll take the 6. Meaningful idp and I'll take 8/24
-OZ-
Footballguy
steelers1080
Footballguy
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Rodgers scores so many more points than just about any other QB. Your team has to make up for those points somehow.
Is the delta you gain from adding Dez, Jeremy Hill, 2018 3rd, 2017 pick 16 more than the delta you lose by going from Rodgers to Dak? Not likely. Unless you're not starting Dak but instead have Brees or maybe Ryan. But probably not even then.
Is the delta you gain from adding Dez, Jeremy Hill, 2018 3rd, 2017 pick 16 more than the delta you lose by going from Rodgers to Dak? Not likely. Unless you're not starting Dak but instead have Brees or maybe Ryan. But probably not even then.
JPeso
Footballguy
Hankmoody
Footballguy
I agree. 1.06 and 1.08 are the same tier to me so unless someone has slid that 2.12 has more utility than that, either as a flier like Josh Reynolds and even better in IDP.
bostonfred
Footballguy
You can't wait until 2.12 to move down from 1.6 to 1.8, because that's not hope numbers work. So I assume you mean wait until 1.6 is otc. And then the question is, who are the equivalent guys available at 6, 7, 8 that you'd be rooting for?
To me it seems like there's a consensus building around Fournette, Davis, Williams, cook, mccaffrey and Mixon, with kamara not far behind and then Howard, Engram, njoku, ross, Juju, foreman, perine, and a couple others kind of making a big tier 2. So dropping from 6 to 8 seems pretty likely to cross the consensus pre draft tier drop, and might cross a post nfl draft tier too. Curious if you guys see it otherwise
To me it seems like there's a consensus building around Fournette, Davis, Williams, cook, mccaffrey and Mixon, with kamara not far behind and then Howard, Engram, njoku, ross, Juju, foreman, perine, and a couple others kind of making a big tier 2. So dropping from 6 to 8 seems pretty likely to cross the consensus pre draft tier drop, and might cross a post nfl draft tier too. Curious if you guys see it otherwise
Aunt Jemima
Footballguy
I guess it depends on your league and your ranks, I play TE premium. My tier one has 5 guys, my 2nd tier goes from 6-10. Just not a fan of 2 of the consensus top 6 so they fall to tier 2, and I think Howard has to be tier 1 in TE premium
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Everyone has their own tiers but I think a top 6 right now is by far the consensus.
I do think there's a good chance that will change some on draft day with the next tier of RBs. Oakland, Indy, and GB all have major needs at RB and none are likely to take one in the 1st round (possible, but not likely). That means some of that next tier of guys like Foreman, Kamara, and Perine are probably going to end up in those spots. Combined with a couple of the top 6 likely landing in "meh" spots that could certainly bring them closer together.
Of course that's a lot of ifs and at the cost of only the 2.12 (even in an IDP league), I'd probably sit tight at 1.6. If it's non-IDP (I don't believe the poster has indicated either way so I'm guessing it's not) then I think it's a really bad move for the team moving down.
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I don't think Oakland will be as attractive of a landing spot once the Lynch deal goes through, even though he's 31.FreeBaGeL said:
Spike
Footballguy
steelers1080
Footballguy
Lynch is more of a sideshow than a legit RB at this point. Even if he gets signed, he won't last more than one season, and it's doubtful he finished the season healthy. I'd have 0 qualms about taking whatever RB the Raiders draft. I'm hoping they grab someone in the first 2 rounds and that RB falls because people are scared of Lynch.
Maybe in the sense anyone can get hurt but as I heard Charlie Casserly point out Riggins retired and sat out same age as Lynch, returned and played 5 more seasons two of which were highly productive but all 5 seasons he got solid usage. Different era for sure but players seem to be maintaining longer now and a year off behind arguably the best OL he's played behind with two young RB's to keep him fresh might be formula for full season if not full multi-season success.
And those two young RB's are not going anywhere anytime soon and at a minimum would figure to dent PPR value of anyone they drafted. All in all I got Oakland pegged as negative landing spot.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I'm not sure about any of this. The guy was still a top back when he retired and has had a full season to let his body heal.
steelers1080
Footballguy
Good point. I would argue that Riggins had 500 less career carries when he came back, so Lynch has more wear and tear, but if any RB could rush for 1300+ and 1200+ yards at age 34 and 35, it'd be Marshawn.
If someone like Cook or McCaffrey goes to Oakland with Marshawn there, where would you take him in a Rookie draft? I'd probably still take them top 6. It might shuffle the order of the top 6, but I wouldn't drop them into my tier 2 group.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Well, this conversation started as "landing spots that would increase the value of the secondary prospects like Kamara, Foreman...", and I really do not see Oakland spending a premium pick on a RB (high enough to land Cook or McCaffrey) if they do land Lynch - but to answer your question I'd agree that those guys should not drop very far, if at all, on your rankings if they land in Oakland.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
I did, yes. League specifics weren't mentioned and right now my tiers go like this (no order to tier):bostonfred said:
Mixon/Fournette/Cook/Davis
McCaffrey/Kamara/JJSS/Williams/Engram/Howard
Return yards would move McCaffrey to Tier 1 as will a good landing spot in NFL draft.
Moving from 8 to 6 really only moves me if it's a tier 1 guy there or the NFL draft creates a tier-within-a-tier for me like Kamara to the Raiders would. Today, now, I would not pay the 2.12 to find out. I'd rather pay the 2.06 later and be sure I'm getting value than toss the 2.12 now and hope for it.
SieteCinco
Footballguy
12 Team SuperFlex/TE Premium Rookie/Devy League:
Gave: 1.09, 2.02, Maxx Williams, Devontae Booker, 2018 3rd (early)
Received: 1.10, Zach Ertz, 2018 2nd (late)
Gave: 1.09, 2.02, Maxx Williams, Devontae Booker, 2018 3rd (early)
Received: 1.10, Zach Ertz, 2018 2nd (late)
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One More Rep
Footballguy
steelers1080
Footballguy
Spike
Footballguy
Maybe an Eagles fan would disagree but I've had Ertz on my FF teams for about 5 years now and he's not proven to be all that.
I would definitely take the side of the deal getting the 1.09/2.02 picks and take someone like Engram with one of them and feel he's better than Ertz.
Not an Eagles fan but in TE premium leagues I play Ertz was TE5 last season and TE3 in PPG. Was just inside top 10 in both of those last season but he had training camp hernia surgery that year which slowed him down.
Considering he is 26 for about half of next season and signed on a long term type contract with a young and up and coming QB I do think there is a lot to like. Even if you like a guy like Engram you have to concede he's not proven, rookie TE's can take time to get going but most of all he still has pick 10 so he did not move down much from his best pick and still should have shot at an Engram or Njoku, not guaranteed but a shot. If this trade got him both 1.9 and 2.2 for Ertz I could see merit of taking prospect like Engram/Njoku type and getting another shot at 2.2 but that's not how this deal was constructed because he picked up the 10.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Ertz is one of those weird players where most people that own him hate him and most people that don't own him want him.
He seems to follow this same pattern of playing poorly for fantasy much of the year, then exploding for one brief stretch of massive numbers that make his end of year numbers look good, and then head into the next season as the up and coming guy with the up and coming situation who just put up pretty good numbers and is going to really blow up next year, only to do it all over again.
He's put up huge week 17 numbers each of the last two years. 22 catches for 291 yards and 2 TDs in those two games alone. That's nearly 20% of his fantasy points over those two years that no one got to use.
Then on top of that his next best week is week 16, with massive games in two out of the last 3 years. On the one hand that's good because you want guys playing well in fantasy championship week, on the other hand it's just another big chunk of his numbers most guys aren't getting to use (especially since he's not exactly helping them get there before that).
As an Ertz dynasty owner the last 3 years have basically gone like this, each season.
"Ok this guy is going to be good, so excited for this year. Ugh we're half way through the year and this guy sucks, I'm benching him. Ugh he just had a monster game, putting him back in! Ugh now he sucks again. Great now my season is over after this clown went 2 catches for 12 yards. Oh look now he's blowing up like a monster now that my team is eliminated. Oh well, I get him next year and he finished so strong with such a handsome QB situation. Things are looking up, can't wait to roll this guy out there next year!"
Rinse and repeat.
I've traded him away in last year in the only two leagues I have him but I still like him so don't feel I fall into this category.
Most of his inconsistency and slow start the past two seasons are as simple as injuries. As we know rookie TE's rarely produce and in 13 and 14 he was still progressing and if not for that crazy game to end 2014 he'd have done very little those seasons, which is again is normal. What you like to see is growth from year one to two and he displayed that.
It was that 2015 off-season/training camp when the buzz got heavy. That's the year all the fluff pieces existed that he'd been traveling around the country working with various TE's on how to hone his craft and that off-season and early camp he was getting constant buzz by Eagles beat writers as being dominant and unguardable. I can honesty say it's the most camp buzz I'd heard on a TE since the Patriot beat writers going crazy about Gronk in the 2012 camp.
So to me that 2015 offseason was when he came into this own, previous two years he was just working on getting there.
But in 2015 he has the hernia operation and made it back in week one but I would think anyone watching him would agree did not look healthy. Got healthier as season progressed and started tearing it up.
Fast forward to 2016 and he's playing with a raw rookie in a new system but he still has a nice week one but again gets hurt. Misses some time, does not look all the way healthy when he gets back but similar to 2015 he got healthier and again took off.
So to me, and I again I don't own him any longer in dynasty, the 2015 and 2016 slow starts were simply a product of injuries. Sure he has some abnormally big games but I've always felt he was pretty similar to a younger Witten and young Witten used to be good for a game or two like that a season as well where he's the safety blanket in a game for the QB in a game where that is more or less what the defense is given and racks up gaudy receiving numbers. He's just not been as durable as Witten.
SieteCinco
Footballguy
Bit of background on the deal: I took Ertz here, but the deals were originally 1.09/2018 3rd (early) for 1.10/2018 2nd (late), the. Ertz for 2.02/+/+ (he's always liked Maxx and pairs Booker with CJA).
I think his value is probably in the late 1st range, but I would have rather held those picks until after the NFL draft.
jeaton6
Footballguy
It's 12 team PPR. If the 6 slot ends up as the end of a tier/or is a player liked by whomever is trying to move into it I doubt you'd be able to move 1.8 and 2.6 for 1.6 in particular when the guy is on OTC. Those are the kinds of moves that when you try to do during the draft they cost you overpays like 1.8/2018 1 or 1.8/solid player worth much more than even 2.6. For me, it was a cheap price to pay to move up into what is a likely a different tier for me. Even if it isn't a different tier for me, it could be for one of 11 others and if so they'll pay more for the pick on draft day then what I paid.Hankmoody said:
kutta
Footballguy
From week 9 on, when he was recovered from his injury, he put up very strong numbers. These were his PPR points each week:FreeBaGeL said:
18, 12, 14, 7, 22, 21, 14, 5, 36
I think most people would be pretty happy with that 9 week stretch from their TE. That's an average of about 16 PPG which which is outstanding for a TE.
CabinFever
Footballguy
12 team PPR
gave: Sterling "Archer" Shepherd
got: Pryor & 2.6 rookie pick
gave: Sterling "Archer" Shepherd
got: Pryor & 2.6 rookie pick
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Snorkelson
Footballguy
Aunt Jemima
Footballguy
FFPC
Team A gave J Mckinnon, pick 4.08
Team B gave M Gillesie, pick 3.08
Team A gave J Mckinnon, pick 4.08
Team B gave M Gillesie, pick 3.08
One More Rep
Footballguy
I will still take Mckinnon but understand grabbing Gillislee in case he gets the Blount role
Zyphros
Footballguy
Best nickname ever. But I take the Pryor side, I think he excels even more in Washington.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
- Team A gave up McKinnon, Jerick MIN RB
- Team B gave up Gillislee, Mike BUF RB
Aunt Jemima
Footballguy
I made almost this same trade yesterday, I was the one that gave Mckinnon and I got a slight bump up in the rookie draft from 4.8 to 3.8 which isn't much. I have James White, he has L Murray. It is all who are you willing to gamble on, Gillislee has flashed but it is crowded in NE and it is Belichek headaches. McKinnon is a great athlete but he has failed to grab the spot in Minny to date, can he finally do it in his contract year? Questions all around. I chose to gamble on Gilislee but I think the trade is fair.
One More Rep
Footballguy
slackjawedyokel
Footballguy
12 Team PPR IDP
Team A received 1.03
Team B received 1.09, 2.06, 2.10
Team A received 1.03
Team B received 1.09, 2.06, 2.10
One More Rep
Footballguy
CabinFever
Footballguy
Robbery to get 1.3 at that price
