rockaction
Footballguy
Gotcha. I've got it differently, but I'm not too radical about it. I don't have Smith there. I think 165 pounds is going to get killed in the NFL, Heisman or no Heisman. Tipping my hand also...
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****OFFICIAL DYNASTY TRADES**** (18 Viewers)
- Thread starter Gottabesweet
- Start date
Boston
Footballguy
A trade like this is dependent on your draft board...if you have a top 6 it is a great move because you now guarantee you will get one of those players...overall a move like this may vary from owner to owner depending on their draft board.12 team non-ppr, QB/2RB/3WR/TE/FL
Gave 1.08, 2.06
Got 1.06
I also have 2.01 and 2.08, and wanted to get into top six of the draft. Probably paid to much to move up two spot mid round, but.
rockaction
Footballguy
I agree with this. It's really early to be swapping picks without knowing where consensus is or where draft capital has gone. Just seems too early. If you trade up to get the 1.01-1.03 because you're sure of it, then I could see that.
lardonastick
Footballguy
This is where I'm at. I see three RB's worth taking in the first round, and in this league they will go in the top 5-6. There is still plenty of time to move off pick 6 also. Once "consensus" forms and names start being attached to picks, I think I'll be able to trade out of that spot if I want. Would be an ideal spot for someone to move up for Lawrence or Pitts.
I guess this trade is really a chip on Williams.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
There's very little reason to make a trade like this now. It's much more likely that the difference 1.06 and 1.08 is negligible in 2 months than there being a huge tier break after the 1.06.12 team non-ppr, QB/2RB/3WR/TE/FL
Gave 1.08, 2.06
Got 1.06
I also have 2.01 and 2.08, and wanted to get into top six of the draft. Probably paid to much to move up two spot mid round, but
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
You've quoted that number quite a bit. I don't think he's as light as that. Splitting hairs there though - either way it is a concern.
But his skills compensate for it, IMO.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
I don't agree. There's an equal, possibly greater, chance that it will cost more as we approach draft time.
And giving up a mid second when you have two other second round picks isn't a big loss to get closer to ensuring you get the guy you want.
rockaction
Footballguy
Been reading anywhere from as low as 160 to 175. I think Dr. Dan's previous work on BMI (if we could find it) for receivers would be instructive in how his height and weight will translate at the pro level.
Fair enough about his skills. But after watching Ruggs at about 190 this year look like an utterly emaciated waif out there, I'm awfully sensitive to very slight or short Alabama receivers. Too close, man, too close to the burn. It's a logical fallacy, but there needs to be some weight gain for me to want to take him at 1.4 or 1.5. Otherwise, I'll pass.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
I get it. It's how I felt about CEH. I liked him until I saw him on an NFL field where he looked like a sixth grader.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
It's possible - but most years there's very little difference between the 1.06 and 1.08 and giving away assets just because you have them isn't a winning strategy.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I would beg to differ and say a trade like this will usually depend on the consensus post draft board for top 6-8. Today's board won't matter when it's time to draft.
So whether this trade works out or not is TBD until the actual draft creates tiers.
Boston
Footballguy
I respectfully disagree...if I have a top 6 I want it locked in ASAP...I find that as the draft gets closer prying away a top draft pick usually gets harder and the cost gets steeper.
I would say this is true if you don't already have a personal cutoff of talent. If you have a personal clear cut top 6 this ensures you get one of those. It may be true that hype and consensus could differ from your personal top 6 which could mean you can get one of your six at pick 12 once all the dust settles but that is taking a chance. This way you know you get one of your top 6 that you have clearly above the rest........for a fairly low cost.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
I'd say the same thing I just said to Boston. I'd be willling to bet your top 6 now won't be your top 6 post draft and if you look back at past years probably never was either.
I bet none of you had CEH in your top 6 this time last year at this time as an example. And even if you did not like CEH he knocked Lamb or Juedy back to 6-7 in literally every single draft I was in so if you had one of those in your top 5 you never needed to go that high to get them.
I don't mean any offense to anyone when I say this but I think some of you think you know more then you do right now. That applies to me as well. A few top tier players will hold but anyone who thinks some players you currently view as top 6 will all hold I think are in for a rude awakening.
And it's not hype that changes values. It's real tangible stuff like draft pedigree and opportunity to say nothing of workouts we've not even seen yet.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
For me, that was a lesson learned. You're right that I didn't have CEH as the #1 - but the hype about landing spot got to me and I took him there. Pre draft I wanted to take Lamb and I should have.
I won't make that mistake this year. I plan on making entirely NEW mistakes!
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I'd bet you, Gally and Boston all on this I'd just not have a way to verify your top 6 changed after the draft.
But just for kicks while don't you all 3 post your top 6, and then we'll revisit this after the draft.
First off I'm very high on CEH and and trying to buy him but that's all beside the point
The point is he dropped a player you would never have thought would have dropped. Happens every year.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Depending on how things shake out, moving from 1.08 to 1.06 might be near impossible in 2 months.
To put it another way: sometimes there’s a top 6 you like, but rarely are there 8 guys in that tier.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
But the other point is, he shouldn't have. At least CEH did have the results that could justify putting him ahead of others.
This year, however, there isn't a player I see with the numbers to justify knocking one of the top players out of their position. What, Rondale Moore or Rashod Bateman are going to seem a better pick than Waddle just because they appear to be in a better situation? I really can't see that happening.
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My point was not to debate the merits of CEH, his performance whether he was outstanding or Bishop Sankey redux was not a factor.
The point of mentioning CEH is what you started the next paragraph off with when you said there is not a player whose numbers would knock someone down because you did not think CEH would knock someone down last year. That's the point I'm trying to make. Players will rise you did not see coming.
I don't know about your leagues but in mine it's generally RB's who rise up and lower were we have WR's ranked right now. Not so much upper tier WR's passing WR's based on your current rankings. I used CEH as an example but most people also had Lamb or Juedy over Akers at this time. I mean some people had Lamb as 1.1. Again in my leagues Lamb never went higher then 6, I drafted him at 7. But if you had Lamb as say your WR1 and Juedy as your WR2 last year that held. That might hold again this year with respect to WR's vs WR's.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
That's not what I said. Or at least not what I meant.
I said CEH DID at least have the numbers to knock other players down IF he went to a good spot.
I don't think there's a similar situation with this year's players. I don't see anyone with justification for knocking out the guys I have at the top regardless of landing spots. They just didn't perform well enough (or at all) on the field to do that.
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Boston
Footballguy
You maybe right...definitely a chance that happens or at least the order changes which really doesn’t have an effect...yet, I am more then comfortable making this move as the cost is not prohibitive and I am betting on the fact this type of move may cost more later...bottom line for me is I move up in the draft and still have more control over who I pick and if I have a definite top 6 now I am very willing to take the risk for this cost...very worst case in this is I make another deal and break even with happened in this deal.
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I for sure want to add I was not critical of the move, I don't think I said it was a bad trade. In fact I have a league where I have pick 6 and I would NOT take 2.6 to move back to 1.8 right now. I absolutely understand that depending on were tier breaks are it could be considerably harder to move up to 6 from 8 once everything shakes out.
I just was debating/arguing that the current top 6 will be the same.
I don't have a top 6 and am not tied to anybody in particular so I wouldn't be rushing to move up 2 spots regardless. However, I do understand the move for someone that is confident in their top 6 due to the minor assets they had to give up to do it.
I also believe there is a long time between now and draft day and things will change.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
This is exactly how I feel as well. I'm willing to move up seemingly arbitrary notches in the 1st round *while* the opportunity exists. If my strategy is to try and move up. Once somebody else buys into a spot, it will be harder to pry away. Once the consensus tier breaks form, those notches become harder to bridge. If I can do it today I will. Right now it looks like a top 6 to me and would love to bump from say 1.09 or 1.08. Unless I think the crop is going to be terrible there doesn't seem to be a compelling reason (to me) to wait.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Whether I have it as a top 6 or not I certainly would agree it is likely to change between now and draft day. But I know I would rather hold 1.06 than 1.08. I might even flip the 1.06 later for something better than what I paid to get there. I also might have better luck moving from 1.06 to 1.02 in a subsequent trade. But if my top 6 shuffles between now and draft day, I'd rather err on the side of *already being in position* to take advantage of such a potential shift than to worry about the fallout of the improved pick somehow becoming dilluted and not worth the February gamble.
donnie baseball
Footballguy
12 team superflex dynasty
Lamar Jackson
for
Hurts, 1.07, 2.05, 3.07
Lamar Jackson
for
Hurts, 1.07, 2.05, 3.07
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Zyphros
Footballguy
I don't like Lamar that much as a long term dynasty QB1.
This is insanely low for him in a SF league...
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
I don't play SF but this seems like low value for Lamar. Maybe that is fine in 1 QB leagues.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I've got this as pretty even. Calculators agree and even give the edge to the picks side. In my SF teams there is a good chance I would move Jackson for this if I believed in Hurts enough. If the Eagles moved Wentz tomorrow then Hurts value will climb more. But admittedly that outcome is already baked into this deal. I don't think this is nearly the bad deal people are saying.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
This all depends on if Hurts gets the keys to the Philly job and keeps it. It's a risk but if he does I think it will prove to be a steal for the side getting Hurts. Would I take that risk in SF? I don't know.
Lamar started 6 full games his rookie season excluding week 17. His high point fantasy game was less then Jalen averaged in his full 3 starts his rookie season. Jalen's low game in those 3 games was more then Lamar averaged in his 6 full starts. Don't sleep on the upside of Hurts IF he's the starting QB.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I see this as pretty even. I am higher on Fuller than some, granted. But the 1.08 could be a nice return and Fuller is a 2nd/3rd tier WR. I'm honestly not that high on Jacobs. The Raiders don't seem to want to throw to him much, and they have a few RBs they like to mix in.
If I had depth at RB and needed a WR I wouldn't hesitate to pull the trigger to move Jacobs for that package.
From the other side if I were dealing Fuller & the 1.08 for Jacobs, I'd feel like I was getting a semi-feature back for a pick & a risky WR.
Fair deal. I could see some balking at it either way, which is why I see it as pretty even.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I'm probably in the minority here, but I like this deal for the Hurts/Picks side. Lamar worries me a bit. At the worst I think it's fair, but value leans to LJax. In general, whenever you have a package deal with multiple players/picks for 1 dude, the side getting the 1 dude wins.
That said, the Eagles are one snake bitten franchise, so I could also see not dealing LJax for that package.
Mostly my reasons for taking or rejecting this deal have to do with gut feelings, i'll completely admit that. At face value it is probably slightly low for LJax. But if I had LJax and some holes I'd definitely consider it. I would like it a lot more with an extra 1st or 2 extra 2nds.
Helaire-ious
Footballguy
As a Lamar owner in dynasty, I can see this deal IF Hurts is the starter. Otherwise, no way in hell. So too early to make this trade unless you have Dak etc as your other QB.
Also, I can't seem to give Lamar away
Helaire-ious
Footballguy
Did the team that gave the 1.07 really need a QB bad as their only missing piece? I think I would have kept the pick & gone Trevor if so
Cjw_55106
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I see it as a foregone conclusion that Wentz is done in Philly one way or the other.
Will Hurts stay the starter is the bigger concern foe me. If that OL doesn’t improve it might be short lived, & I hope he has good health insurance.
Matt's Eagles
Footballguy
14 Team PPR
Team A got Miles Sanders
Team B got Chris Godwin
Team A got Miles Sanders
Team B got Chris Godwin
