barackdhouse
Footballguy
Watch he doesn't even have his own page. I am not going to look.
hey guys, is this where we talk about Lynn Bowden?
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****OFFICIAL DYNASTY TRADES**** (18 Viewers)
- Thread starter Gottabesweet
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barackdhouse
Footballguy
FFPC SF
I gave 3.10
I got Higbee
I gave 3.10
I got Higbee
Helaire-ious
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I see that as pretty even. If Fournette is gone, the RoJo side probably wins, depending on Mostert's role in 2021 & to lesser degree, whether the Pats get back to their winning ways.Â
I apologize to anyone bothered by me bogging down the trade thread but this was some eye opening info to me that I did not know about. I've never bought an orphan, would check in on them on the FFPC site but never went to the site that has them listed to be bid on until reading this post.
This is were I'm at. Enjoy nothing more in fantasy then a startup, but I'm at 8 dynasty leagues plus more redraft then I care to admit and I don't want to add to an existing dynasty team without shedding one. Now I'm at least considering it after seeing these teams sale prices.
About a week ago I went on a time wasting expedition were I decided to pull out Hindery's latest trade value chart and use it to rate my dynasty teams. There is no perfect system, this is based on one man's opinion and I had do stuff like adjust TE's up 25% in value. What I did at first was look at value of my teams top 14 position players, then top 14 position players but 2021 top two round draft picks and finally total value of my top 14 assets which includes current players and 2021 draft picks. (for those that don't know FFPC is 14 position player max in off-season). Again lot's of imperfections in this system but I wanted to get an idea of were my teams stood and then I checked in on a few of the better teams I face to get an idea.
That may be a good idea to get a value of your teams vs teams you see for being bid on. I did this just now and decided to just use value of top 14 assets.
Since I only play standard as of now, not SF or BB, I limited myself to those teams and those teams that were getting a good return and ranked them vs my 6 FFPC teams.
First one I saw was a $750 with a current bid of $2,100. It would rate as my worst team.
Next was a $750 with a current bid of $2,750 and a $1,250 team going for $3,000 both of which would have rated as my 4th best team.
This makes me consider putting a team in a particularly dead and no fun league up for sale. My hesitation is that while the league is no fun because it's dead(and my best trading partner the last few years just left), only 2-3 other owners seem to have a clue and except for trading being very difficult it's my easiest league, not a sharp group on the whole. This and another FFPC team at similar time was my last startups and I just finished year 6 and my team has never not turned a profit in a year so not so sure giving that up even if its for 3 or 4 times the entry fee is a good idea but sure is making me think about a nice exit and fresh start on a hopefully more active league.
I got a $750 team were 3 years ago someone offered me the money equal to winning the league and getting a top two seed, $4,350. I passed and no regrets. Winning a championship is hard business when you are talking about it boiling down to 1-2 weeks, don't care how dominant your team is at the time. But some teams are so loaded it's difficult to see them not at least being in the mix for years. Sometimes you got a team were that keeps on giving, hard to walk away from.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I've been doing what you're talking about here with Hindery's chart and top 14 players from FFPC squads for a few years now. I track my franchises in my spreadsheet and I summate the values to approximate something like a franchise value. I include draft capital. I just keep it going all the time and update as I make moves. Minimal work actually. I was going to possibly make a whole new thread that is FFPC specific and that uses this concept as a jumping in point. I don't just use Hindery, though. There are a couple online calculators I like that use basically the same quantitative system, and I also make my own small adjustments where I see fit. So the values I assign are a mix from a few sources. My own adjustments are usually minor and rare. What I have found is that most players (and picks) fall within a consensus range (including my own valuation on them) with a small handful of outliers. Hindery is obviously higher or lower on player x or y than I am, and so is any given calculator system, but that is fine. None of it is gospel. It is a broadbrush way of conceiving of one's franchise value and to use that as a guide as you allude to. I think it is also useful to review when I am thinking of my vision for the future in terms of where the FF landscape may be headed. Market values often lag behind those visions, but I need to know what that market looks like if I am to exploit it.Â
I have made a bunch of trades in one of my orphans that I took over ~3 weeks ago in particular, and taking a look at them in the manner described, I have gained approximately 36 franchise points (using Hindery's system if not his exact values) as a result of these trades (and cleared one roster spot, which nobody has figured out how to quantify but I think we all agree holds value). According to my assigned values, that is something like a free Jacobs and a free 2nd rounder (pieces I did in fact receive).
I took over a non-FFPC orphan last offseason and using the same concept improved it from an original franchise value of 89 (deeper rosters - this team sucked so bad) to over 289 now.
Anyway I think it may be time to start an FFPC specific dynasty thread.Â
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Yeah it is an interesting change to the FFPC landscape to offer this auction option. My best teams would likely go for top dollar. I'm not entirely clear if the reserve is being met on some of these big ticket bids and I think just because you have the high bid doesn't mean your card gets run. It reverts you to the FFPC website to pay up if you win, and you still have the option of backing out without penalty. So I think some people may be messing around and testing limits. I don't see any published info on actual sales.Â
Yes, good for us and also so people who don't care about FFPC don't have to see conversations like this pop up all over. Even a FFPC thread that is both redraft and dynasty.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
FFPC SF not involved:
Lockett for Landry, Kirk
D Evans for 5.09
Penny for 5.08
FFPC regular not involved:
Pittman for 1.11
Lockett for Landry, Kirk
D Evans for 5.09
Penny for 5.08
FFPC regular not involved:
Pittman for 1.11
ffmail4me
Footballguy
Just made this trade and wished I hadn't, sent this several days ago, before Wentz signed in Indy. 12 team PPR dynasty, we start 1 qb
Gave: Henderson
Got: Winston
Granted I only have Big Ben and Wentz at QB, so I do need one, but with Wentz in Indy it doesn't seem nearly as important to my roster. I guess if Ben retires and Winston is the starter in New Orleans it won't look as bad, but feels kind dumb right now.Â
Gave: Henderson
Got: Winston
Granted I only have Big Ben and Wentz at QB, so I do need one, but with Wentz in Indy it doesn't seem nearly as important to my roster. I guess if Ben retires and Winston is the starter in New Orleans it won't look as bad, but feels kind dumb right now.Â
Penny is not a sure roster cutdown keeper by any means, as of now I'm planning to keep on one team and cut on another, but Evans is assuredly not a keeper. Penny at least has a chance to be the primary RB or major part of a RBBC while Evans might be a really nice complement to Henry but no shot without an injury to Henry of having usable value. This seems like a minor trade but could pay off big for guy getting Penny and cost him really nothing for the shot.
jabarony
Footballguy
I've noticed on that site that the crazy* bids are not always for the best "win now" teams, or even for teams that I'd consider the best mix of young talent + competing roster. Rather, the big bids can be for a team with say J. Jefferson, Cam Akers, 3x 1st round picks, and utter garbage elsewhere. As fun as a fresh team is, I wouldn't overpay for that chance to build.
Seeing those types of bids would make me want to run an experiment where I take an average team, and sell it all for future 1sts. Just load up and place said team on the site for auction. Even though the overall value of the team is still average, just watch those shiny 1sts get bid up to the sky. Probably not going to do that, though. As soon as I do, those bidders will stop bidding like that!
* crazy bids in as much as the new owner would have to win the league 2 or 3 times in a row to break even on their investment. That just doesn't happen easily in these leagues even if you have the best team and make the finals every year. You're going against 3 other teams in a 2 week sprint. No guarantees in that format.
Agree. What I've long considered my best team I turned down equivalent of winning and getting a top two seed. If that was two years I'm probably moving it, if it's 3 years I'd be a fool not to.
Last year in my 6 FFPC leagues only 2 team's won that were actually the highest scoring/best team in the regular season and that's pretty standard.Â
rockaction
Footballguy
They're just making up for the time he didn't get with the Raiders.
Seriously, the guy showed up in camp and his own team called him "not electric" then dumped him for a fifth rounder when they'd drafted him in the fourth. Within the first training camp. Perhaps that says something about the Raiders' front office, and that's quite possible, but that's an inauspicious beginning for Bowden.
Helaire-ious
Footballguy
You win a SB you say you want everyone back, it's just what teams say. And I'm sure if he agreed to play the $2M I think he played for last year they've love to have him back. I don't think that's the case and I'd be very surprised if he returned as he likely played his way into a better contract then that and likely a better role as well. Remember while he had a good playoff run this is same guy who Arian's told after week 14 his new reality was backing up ROJO and if that was to much for him just say cut me and he'd oblige. He had a good playoff run because ROJO got hurt-not because he replaced him, I don't think Tampa is going to be tripping over themselves to keep him.
wlwiles
Footballguy
What does your trade partner have left at QB? Had to be stacked to give up Ben and Lawrence for Hopkins...
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
How many games have the Raiders won under the Gruden/Mayock regime? I’m not defending Bowden but I also wouldn’t base any player evaluations on what the Raiders did.rockaction said:
rockaction
Footballguy
Hence this quote, which I thought covered that. "Perhaps that says something about the Raiders' front office, and that's quite possible..."
I thought putting that in there was a big caveat about their evaluations. Maybe I should have been more direct with the language aspect of it? I don't know...
Your point is taken but it's not like I ignored it -- in fact, I saw enough there to actively put it into print and hedge my bets.
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rockaction
Footballguy
The Raiders, IMO, have done a really lousy job under Gruden and Mayock evaluating talent so far. The Raiders thread is quite rife with discussion about that, so I'm aware. But if they've done a lousy job evaluating talent, brought a guy in, got a look at him, and ditched? That's probably worse than we think. But Miami did see something. Perhaps they can make it work. But do we really think he's a fantasy entity yet?
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
Thanks. I hope that didn't come across as defensive. I was trying to put it gently that the Raiders over the past years have been the subject of criticism for talent evaluation. I agree with your post. I think they've done terribly under Gruden and Mayock so far. And they're making noise about signing JJSS when they have no defense to speak of and money is probably best spent there. I don't know...
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
and I want a magical pony that grants wishes but that seems unlikely, too.Helaire-ious said:
 TB may not even sign Gronk or Godwin (though TB insiders suggest Godwin will return)
Fournette was almost cut in week 14 according to reports. He likely will get a sizable offer elsewhere. Everything ive seen out of TB is that he’s likely gone.Â
Helaire-ious
Footballguy
Gronk is not in the same situation v Fournette or Godwin...and I want a magical pony that grants wishes but that seems unlikely, too.
TB may not even sign Gronk or Godwin (though TB insiders suggest Godwin will return)
Fournette was almost cut in week 14 according to reports. He likely will get a sizable offer elsewhere. Everything ive seen out of TB is that he’s likely gone.Â
NE_REVIVAL
Footballguy
FFPC Dynasty doesn't get anywhere near the love it should in the FF world (content, pods etc) so hell ya lets give the subject its own thread.Âmenobrown said:
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I bought a few this year and those pieces would be enough for me to pay full price. I'm just not into paying more but you would get it from what I'm seeing. And then some. There *does* seem to be a markup for orphans with draft picks.Â
NE_REVIVAL
Footballguy
My experience has been high draft picks and young talent are huge. All depends on where ur at, how much do you have invested in the team, how much r u willing to let it go for. I had a dozen teams and wanted to cull the herd so I was willing to break even on some teams and be a bit more selective on others. All depends on where ur at, but it doesn't cost much to set a reserve and find out. FWIW, I think the market has cooled a bit from 2-4 weeks ago but that is more of a gut feeling on my part more than anything else.Â
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Unrelated to this I actually just read a blurb about Bowden. It said the Raiders actually took Bowden in the third. Pretty crazy they gave up on him so fast. At the very least you think they’d find a way to use him on gadget plays.rockaction said:
rockaction
Footballguy
There was a rumored -- rumored -- thing where he and the other rookies were going out in Vegas too much and he was leading the charge. Don't know how that leaked, but it did. According to Mike Mayock, the trade had nothing to do with off-the-field problems, but rather that Bowden didn't, per reports, look "explosive" like they thought he would. I remember the Raiders' brass commenting negatively about him in camp. (I was following Ruggs and Edwards, so I read a bunch of Raiders stuff this off-season.) It was awfully weird to hear them call him out in the press, but not so weird in retrospect given that they traded him.
He was indeed a third-round pick. He was shipped to Miami for a fourth-round pick. The Raiders are also on the hook for a conditional sixth-rounder.
Weird draft pick, weirder trade.
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barackdhouse
Footballguy
FFPC SF not involved
Mariota, 2.01, 4.03
for
Ruggs, 2022 1st
I offered 3.04Â for Mariota as a bit of a feeler offer. Told me he wanted to wait and see what happened but this is a pretty good return.
Mariota, 2.01, 4.03
for
Ruggs, 2022 1st
I offered 3.04Â for Mariota as a bit of a feeler offer. Told me he wanted to wait and see what happened but this is a pretty good return.
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barackdhouse
Footballguy
Different FFPC SF not involved
Carson
for
3.08, 3.09
That's probably way too cheap
Carson
for
3.08, 3.09
That's probably way too cheap
Penguin
Footballguy
Thinking about it more I'm on the Barkley side. His rookie year blows away JJ's rookie year in standard scoring, even in PPR scoring too. Yes he's 24 at a position that doesn't age well and coming off knee surgery but I expect regression in year two from Jefferson and you can only look so far ahead as the NFL changes on a dime.
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Helaire-ious
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Time will tell on all 3.Â
Fournette is rumored to want much more than $2M. So he’s likely out. RoJo is still cheap & they have Vaughn for depth/COP.Â
I’m not sure why you’re so invested in Fournette staying in TB. It’s possible I guess, but it seems unlikely.Â
DropKick
Footballguy
Really? I would think that Gronk doesn't have any incentive to play anywhere except with his BFF in Tampa. I guess he could retire, but that seems unlikely given the position the Bucs are in...
Sure, Godwin and Fournette may both want to stay but are at very different points in their careers.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Isn’t speculation and “educated guessing” a big part of fantasy football?
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Boston
Footballguy
The x-factor is how bad did the new Mariota need a QB...if they did I see what they are doing as I really think he will be starting this year for someone like the Pats or Bears...getting that 2.1 for this year is an excellent nice add on...this isn't too much to give up at all if you are QB-needy in a SF...on the flip-side my guess is the other owner probably has a solid QB unit and is playing with found $ with Mariota...getting a #1 is always huge if you are getting it without touching the core of your roster but I can't say I like giving up that 2.1 in the deal, that is a high pick...Ruggs is solid piece but still an unknown so I would have liked something better if I was putting in that 2.1 and 4.3.
Boston
Footballguy
It is pretty common formula after a championship...guys say they want to stay and then all of a sudden realize they may never be in a better spot to cash in now that they have a ring...happened 100 times with the Pats and you can't blame the player as he's very fortunate to be in that spot.
As for Gronk he is either playing with Brady or done.
rockaction
Footballguy
Yeah, he really doesn't have much leverage. It's TB and TB or bust. They do have to compensate him fairly because he could just hang 'em up again. He has that option.
Boston
Footballguy
I don't think it is really a leverage thing...it's just that the only reason he is playing is to be with Brady...he is like Brady's little brother and just wants to be with him.
rockaction
Footballguy
Agreed. Which is why he really has no leverage, though. He's got Tampa bidding against nobody else, really, and limiting your market like that usually means less salary unless you're willing to hang 'em up and go rassle.
Boston
Footballguy
I see what you mean...I agree but I don't think leverage matters because I don't think money matters to him right now...the word on Gronk is he has been crazy smart with his money and has pretty much every dime he has made and he will never be hurting for endorsement deals...if he is playing it is purely to play with Brady and try to win another title.
https://www.businessinsider.com/rob-gronkowski-retires-patriots-nfl-money-advice-2019-3
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barackdhouse
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
Oh yeah, I agree again with your main point. Gronk is going nowhere but TB or retirement, and he'll do so comfortably and with a moonlighting career as television personality, whatever that entails.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Yeah I'm a little hung up on that, too. Not sure I'd want to give that piece up. If I was a Ruggs fan this wouldn't be close, though. This price is assuming Mariota has a starting job already. I agree that will likely happen but it is still paying up for that.
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kutta
Footballguy
I’m opposed to that. There are a lot of great posters in this thread that play FFPC and I fear we would lose some of their thoughts. I don’t play FFPC and I am totally fine with the discussions. It’s interesting.
