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****OFFICIAL DYNASTY TRADES****


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On 1/28/2022 at 10:21 PM, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I’m not sure what Gaskin will be.

Outside of a handful of games he was pretty useless this year as the starting RB. I'm fairly confident he will not be starting next season, so I'd say his value is that he's borderline rosterable in 2023.

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14 hours ago, King of the Jungle said:

Gave Gabriel Davis

Got 2023 1st

Wanted to keep a piece of the Buffalo offense but ultimately felt like it may be a good time to unload.

It's amazing what people will do based on a playoff game.

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32 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

It's amazing what people will do based on a playoff game.

agreed completely. 

There is even a poster in here that said they weren't sure if they would sell for 3 firsts. Then denied recency bias. 🤣 I wish I still owned G. Davis because I would be selling all day for a single first.

Edited by smbkrypt24
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36 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

It's amazing what people will do based on a playoff game.

In general I agree with you, but a smart dynasty owner is a few moves ahead of their competition.  Having said that, I wouldn't give a 1st for Davis, but I wouldn't take a 2nd.  He's a nice hold to see what happens.

Edited to say early in the year I was trying to use him as a throw-in on some deals.  Glad it didn't happen.

Edited by JohnnyU
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5 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

In general I agree with you, but a smart dynasty owner is a few moves ahead of their competition. 

Well sure - but trading a first round pick for him after a career playoff game isn't being "ahead of the competition" - it's being "reactive". Overly so, imo,

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5 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Well sure - but trading a first round pick for him after a career playoff game isn't being "ahead of the competition" - it's being "reactive". Overly so, imo,

I guess you didn't read the rest of my post.

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9 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Absolutely I did.

Then you would know that I said I wouldn't give a first and wouldn't take a 2nd.  You related my statement saying a good dynasty owner stays a few moves ahead of their competition with insinuating I agreed with the trade of giving the first, which my statement afterwards clearly does not.  One can stay ahead of the competition in many ways and making good trades is one of them, but I clearly didn't agree with giving a 1st for Davis.  That may change in the coming years however.

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37 minutes ago, smbkrypt24 said:

agreed completely. 

There is even a poster in here that said they weren't sure if they would sell for 3 firsts. Then denied recency bias. 🤣 I wish I still owned G. Davis because I would be selling all day for a single first.

The owner in my main dynasty league kept posting all during his breakout game in our GroupMe Chat that he was on the block, etc etc and that he was looking to move him for a 22 or 23 1st. 
 

He’s still on his roster. 

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Just now, JoeJoe88 said:

The owner in my main dynasty league kept posting all during his breakout game in our GroupMe Chat that he was on the block, etc etc and that he was looking to move him for a 22 or 23 1st. 
 

He’s still on his roster. 

He may be thankful later a trade wasn't made, but I don't blame him for trying to get a 1st.  I sure as hell wouldn't take a 2nd now.  Earlier in the year I would have jumped on a 2nd for Davis.  He's a hold and see IMO.

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6 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

He may be thankful later a trade wasn't made, but I don't blame him for trying to get a 1st.  I sure as hell wouldn't take a 2nd now.  Earlier in the year I would have jumped on a 2nd for Davis.  He's a hold and see IMO.

I agree.  22 years old and attached to Allen for the foreseeable future certainly reduces risk and gives him a ton of upside.  If he continues to develop, I could see WR 2/3 upside which I'd be happy with on a late 1st pick.  The risk is short term as well since we'll know this off season where he stands if they don't spend a bunch of capital on another WR.  

Edited by Blick
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1 hour ago, JohnnyU said:

Then you would know that I said I wouldn't give a first and wouldn't take a 2nd.  You related my statement saying a good dynasty owner stays a few moves ahead of their competition with insinuating I agreed with the trade of giving the first, which my statement afterwards clearly does not.  One can stay ahead of the competition in many ways and making good trades is one of them, but I clearly didn't agree with giving a 1st for Davis.  That may change in the coming years however.

I was responding to the first part of your statement which imo does not apply here. 

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13 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I was responding to the first part of your statement which imo does not apply here. 

Sorry, but you have to include my entire post for context.  Not just pull out the first part and make it what you will.

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2 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Well, it is common courtesy in communications to take my entire post into context, not just take one part to change the overall narrative.  But go ahead and do that if you want.  By the way, I loved Seinfeld.  

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25 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

Sorry, but you have to include my entire post for context.  Not just pull out the first part and make it what you will.

I mean, to be fair, you’re not really planting your flag either way with Davis here. You’re basically just hedging your bet. You wouldn’t trade a 1st for him, but you also wouldn’t accept a 2nd for him. Okay. Great. You and 90% of the rest of the dynasty community. 
 

I think the real way to get ahead of the competition in dynasty is to plant a flag and go after a guy, not wait until he completely blows up and his value doubles. Will you miss sometimes? Absolutely. But the reward greatly outweighs the risk IMO, particularly if you’re confident in your player evaluations. So if you’re confident in Davis’s ability and believe his postseason explosion might not be an anomaly, that 1st that you pay now will be far less than what you have to pay a year from now to acquire him if he does indeed ascend. 

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9 minutes ago, JoeJoe88 said:

I mean, to be fair, you’re not really planting your flag either way with Davis here. You’re basically just hedging your bet. You wouldn’t trade a 1st for him, but you also wouldn’t accept a 2nd for him. Okay. Great. You and 90% of the rest of the dynasty community. 
 

I think the real way to get ahead of the competition in dynasty is to plant a flag and go after a guy, not wait until he completely blows up and his value doubles. Will you miss sometimes? Absolutely. But the reward greatly outweighs the risk IMO, particularly if you’re confident in your player evaluations. So if you’re confident in Davis’s ability and believe his postseason explosion might not be an anomaly, that 1st that you pay now will be far less than what you have to pay a year from now to acquire him if he does indeed ascend. 

You have to consider current value and  not overpay by a lot and I value 1st round picks more than most do.  If you don't, then knock yourself out and give the first, it may payoff later.  I'm not 100% sure Davis will carry 1st round value this time next year, but he sure carries more than mid to late 2nd right now.  If I had a gun put to my head I would say his value right now is early 2nd.  You can call that hedging your bets, but to me it is a smart thing to do.  I would try and offer a late 2nd plus a player if I really wanted to go after him.  If I owned him I would have to consider being offered a 1st, especially in a WR deep draft.  Not saying I would do that either if it was a late 1st, but I would consider it.

Edited by JohnnyU
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On 1/31/2022 at 5:19 AM, bro1ncos said:

SF PPR TEprem

Team A gives:

Melvin Gordon

Team B gives:

KeShaun Vaughn

2.08 

3.02

This seems like an overpay for Gordon being as though he may not even be a Bronco next year.  Not that they gave up much though in what is expected to be a weak draft.  I don't really have a problem with it but think I'd stay away from Gordon until I knew more.

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On 1/31/2022 at 5:39 PM, King of the Jungle said:

Gave Gabriel Davis

Got 2023 1st

Wanted to keep a piece of the Buffalo offense but ultimately felt like it may be a good time to unload.

I think this is a great move.  Great sell high after a monster game pumped up his value.  I like this especially in a year in 2023 that should be good.

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On 2/1/2022 at 8:07 AM, smbkrypt24 said:

agreed completely. 

There is even a poster in here that said they weren't sure if they would sell for 3 firsts. Then denied recency bias. 🤣 I wish I still owned G. Davis because I would be selling all day for a single first.

I was the poster, and It was said tongue-in-cheek. I was being hyperbolic. And I said as much a few posts later.

The whole point was about recency bias and questioning how much that playoff game inflated his value. And the fact that Davis has been ascending for 2 seasons - which isn’t recency bias. In the detailed analysis I’d posted of Davis I actually deliberately left that playoff game out, so I’m not sure why you’re so bent on misrepresenting that. It’s right there in my post & I explicitly said that I left the 4 TD game out. :shrug: 

then over the next few posts we engaged in an interesting discussion & thought experiment - and then the real question was whether one would take 2 late 1sts in 2022, the 1.11 & 1.12

i maintain that I would not take those 2 picks for Davis, (reasoning has already been posted), but you seem more interested in misrepresenting that conversation than actually engaging in useful discussion, so….yeah. 

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy
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20 hours ago, Jonesin For Some Football said:

I think this is a great move.  Great sell high after a monster game pumped up his value.  I like this especially in a year in 2023 that should be good.

I agree that it’s a better move than trading him for a 2022 1st, but I still question taking a single 1st for a player who appears to be ascending. 

At best you….replace Davis with a player you hope will be as good? 

Unless you’re stacked at the WR position & need something else, in which case I get it. But then you’re waiting 2 years to upgrade. I’d rather try to trade him for a RB or TE or whatever. 

depends how high the 1st in 2023 is of course, but it’s not a slam dunk.

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1 hour ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I was the poster, and It was said tongue-in-cheek. I was being hyperbolic. And I said as much a few posts later.

The whole point was about recency bias and questioning how much that playoff game inflated his value. And the fact that Davis has been ascending for 2 seasons - which isn’t recency bias. In the detailed analysis I’d posted of Davis I actually deliberately left that playoff game out, so I’m not sure why you’re so bent on misrepresenting that. It’s right there in my post & I explicitly said that I left the 4 TD game out. :shrug: 

then over the next few posts we engaged in an interesting discussion & thought experiment - and then the real question was whether one would take 2 late 1sts in 2022, the 1.11 & 1.12

i maintain that I would not take those 2 picks for Davis, (reasoning has already been posted), but you seem more interested in misrepresenting that conversation than actually engaging in useful discussion, so….yeah. 

 

On 1/24/2022 at 2:35 PM, Hot Sauce Guy said:

 

I mean, yes and no. If he becomes a top 5 WR in the NFL, then last night was not his sell high point. 

If he becomes a top 5 NFL WR, then I totally bought low. If I was offered 3x 1sts for him (say 2022, 2023. 2024) I'm not sure I'd accept, because his potential is as a top 5 NFL WR. 

Last night showed us what he's capable of, regardless of whether he actually has a 4 TD game again. At his age & talent, and in the situation he's in with Allen at QB & 3 aging WRs (2 rapidly) there are few WRs I'd rather have, and I don't know what I'll get with those 3 hypothetical picks. 

I suspect his value will maintain for quite some time. Sure, maybe some starry eyed leaguemate would offer me the universe for him, but from where I sit, it would take that sort of deal to even make me consider moving him from my rebuilding team right now. 

Just leaving this here so you don’t feel “misrepresented.”

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1 minute ago, barackdhouse said:

FFPC SuperFlex

Gave 2023 2nd (late)

Got Winston

FFPC 1QB

Gave 2.11

Got Vaughn, Everett, 3.12

 

Winston could be a nice buy low right now. Not sure if he is staying with Saints, but could be a starter somewhere next year and in SF that’s valuable. 
I think I prefer the 2.11 in the second deal, but need to put more time into the rookie class.

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Just now, smbkrypt24 said:

Winston could be a nice buy low right now. Not sure if he is staying with Saints, but could be a starter somewhere next year and in SF that’s valuable. 
I think I prefer the 2.11 in the second deal, but need to put more time into the rookie class.

I hold four 1st rounders and four other 2nd rounders. That 2.11 would have been my 9th rookie if I didn't move any picks. It is mostly just a dart throw at Vaughn in case the depth chart breaks for him this year. Which it might. 

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1 minute ago, barackdhouse said:

Can we stop with the back and forth he said she said crap? Obviously it is better to do what I did and buy Davis last year for late 2nds at the most and usually more like 4ths. Guess I am 2 years ahead.

No worries there, I am done. I didn’t mention him by name because I thought it would get to a back and forth match. That conversation is over for me. 

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32 minutes ago, smbkrypt24 said:

 

Just leaving this here so you don’t feel “misrepresented.”

Here - I'll save you the time:   

On 1/24/2022 at 5:22 PM, Hot Sauce Guy said:

The 1.11 & 1.12 this year might be equivalent to the 2.07-2.08 next year though. It's not expected to be a deep draft class. I think that's where there's a little disconnect. 

That was me being hyperbolic as an elated Davis owner who bought at either a low or fair price, depending on how much you like my early season trade this year. 

But It definitely depends on which 3. If it's 2x late 1sts this year (11-12) and a late 1st next? Yeah, Imma have to think it over.  

 

Then, as I said, the "thought experiment" discussion (as we clearly described it) turned to whether someone would take 1.11 & 1.12. 

And

  

On 1/24/2022 at 6:38 PM, Hot Sauce Guy said:

In this draft, I don't like your chances of hitting on the 1.11 and 1.12. I like your chances slightly better of hitting on one of them. 

So now you're trading Davis for one of them hitting. Still worth it? 

Hypothetically of course. This is all a thought experiment at this point, as you said. We don't know what teams will draft which players, so it's all pretty loose.  

 

I hope this clears things up for you so you'll stop misrepresenting my post as what I would actually demand for Davis, and what I jokingly said it would take to pry him from me. 

And no - I would not at this time take 1.11 & 1.12 in 2022 for reasons covered in detail in the Dynasty Value topic, which is where this conversation belongs. :thumbup:

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy
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15 minutes ago, smbkrypt24 said:

No worries there, I am done. I didn’t mention him by name because I thought it would get to a back and forth match. That conversation is over for me. 

Uh huh. You can apologize any time. 

I'm also over it. I just don't like being misrepresented. 

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57 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

Can we stop with the back and forth he said she said crap? Obviously it is better to do what I did and buy Davis last year for late 2nds at the most and usually more like 4ths. Guess I am 2 years ahead.

I'm done. When someone misrepresents me, it forces me to correct them. It's unfortunate when it happens. 

I agree though - I paid a 2022 mid-1st for a 2023 mid-first and Davis. Since I wasn't that high on the 2022 draft I felt like I did well. 

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy
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1 hour ago, barackdhouse said:

FFPC SuperFlex

Gave 2023 2nd (late)

Got Winston

I like this deal - I think Winston might have something. It's worth a late '23 pick to find out. 

How do you know it's a late 2nd? 

1 hour ago, barackdhouse said:

FFPC 1QB

Gave 2.11

Got Vaughn, Everett, 3.12

I like this deal too. 

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy
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On 2/1/2022 at 7:36 AM, Dr. Octopus said:

Outside of a handful of games he was pretty useless this year as the starting RB. I'm fairly confident he will not be starting next season, so I'd say his value is that he's borderline rosterable in 2023.

Agree completely. I doubt he even has a significant role. So it makes that a complete gamble.  Dynasty “Roster clogger” is my best guess.

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23 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I agree that it’s a better move than trading him for a 2022 1st, but I still question taking a single 1st for a player who appears to be ascending. 

At best you….replace Davis with a player you hope will be as good? 

Unless you’re stacked at the WR position & need something else, in which case I get it. But then you’re waiting 2 years to upgrade. I’d rather try to trade him for a RB or TE or whatever. 

depends how high the 1st in 2023 is of course, but it’s not a slam dunk.

I get your argument.  You are a Davis believer.  I am not as much but he does have upside.  Diggs still there and any team I have Davis wouldn't be a starter and probably isn't going to become that any time soon anyways so I'd rather take the 1st and swing for the fences as I don't believe Davis is a swing.  He will never be a WR1 on a fantasy team.  Comes down to how much you value picks and any WR (many of them available) that isn't even a WR2 right now is probably not worth a 1st in a deep draft.

Upside is king though and I have been guilty of holding a player I like and see talent in because of what I think they can become.  Nothing wrong with your thinking.  We just vary in our beliefs on Davis (maybe 1st rounders too).  I like to take shots in the 1st considering I got Jaylen Waddle and Justin Jefferson at 8 the last 2 years, give me that chance over Gabe Davis all day.

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21 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I'm done. When someone misrepresents me, it forces me to correct them. It's unfortunate when it happens. 

I agree though - I paid a 2022 mid-1st for a 2023 mid-first and Davis. Since I wasn't that high on the 2022 draft I felt like I did well. 

Now this was a great move here.  Got in to the better draft and added a free Davis.  I like that a lot.

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16 hours ago, jadensdad said:

12 team Superflex ppr

russel Wilson and etienne for Kupp 

 

I'd say Wilson/Etienne in SF but if you are deep at QB (like Russ is your QB3) then I have no problem making this trade if Kupp makes you a true contender.  If trading from strength and improving your team by a lot while doing so.

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24 minutes ago, Jonesin For Some Football said:

I get your argument.  You are a Davis believer.  I am not as much but he does have upside.  Diggs still there and any team I have Davis wouldn't be a starter and probably isn't going to become that any time soon anyways so I'd rather take the 1st and swing for the fences as I don't believe Davis is a swing.  He will never be a WR1 on a fantasy team.  Comes down to how much you value picks and any WR (many of them available) that isn't even a WR2 right now is probably not worth a 1st in a deep draft.

Upside is king though and I have been guilty of holding a player I like and see talent in because of what I think they can become.  Nothing wrong with your thinking.  We just vary in our beliefs on Davis (maybe 1st rounders too).  I like to take shots in the 1st considering I got Jaylen Waddle and Justin Jefferson at 8 the last 2 years, give me that chance over Gabe Davis all day.

Absolutely rational approach. 

And honestly I’m not that far off on Davis from you either. I am aware of Diggs presence. I am also aware of Diggs age, and the ages of the other BUF WRs. 

I’m rebuilding for 2023 and beyond, so as I've said before, team context also matters.  If Davis has indeed locked up the WR2 role in BUF, he very well may be starting for me. But then, my cupboard is relatively bare.

so with a lack of human assets and a boatload of picks for 2023, ii don’t see how a 1.11 & 1.12 pick in 2022 would help me more than the upside of Davis might.  Especially in a year where I see about 10 year-one NFL starters and only 4 are WR. And one of them should be there for me at 1.08 In superflex. 

So all things considered, I’m holding. And regardless, no one in my league is offering me a package like that anyway, so it is truly just a thought experiment. 

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26 minutes ago, Jonesin For Some Football said:

Now this was a great move here.  Got in to the better draft and added a free Davis.  I like that a lot.

Thanks. I felt like it was a solid move at the time, and fit my rebuild well.

:hifive:

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On 2/3/2022 at 10:39 AM, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I agree that it’s a better move than trading him for a 2022 1st, but I still question taking a single 1st for a player who appears to be ascending. 

At best you….replace Davis with a player you hope will be as good? 

Unless you’re stacked at the WR position & need something else, in which case I get it. But then you’re waiting 2 years to upgrade. I’d rather try to trade him for a RB or TE or whatever. 

depends how high the 1st in 2023 is of course, but it’s not a slam dunk.

I am not so sure why you think he is ascending.   If you compare numbers from this year and last year he is either stagnant or had a bit of a regression.  

 

I don't mind taking a chance on the guy but to say he is ascending is a bit premature based on what he has actually done.  

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12 minutes ago, Gally said:

I am not so sure why you think he is ascending.   If you compare numbers from this year and last year he is either stagnant or had a bit of a regression.  
 

Probably because context matters, and we’re talking about a 22 year old who was playing behind 3 starting WRs, yet still scored prolifically, despite being the 4th WR on his team. 

He certainly wasn’t regressing. 

12 minutes ago, Gally said:

 

I don't mind taking a chance on the guy but to say he is ascending is a bit premature based on what he has actually done.  

I heartily disagree. Likely departure of Sanders, Cole Beasley about to turn 33, and many believe he’ll be the starting WR2 this year. That certainly seems like an upward path. I don’t think it’s premature at all. 

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