a_rackowski
Footballguy
duke Johnson 2.0.
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RB Christian McCaffrey, SF (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter TripItUp
- Start date
The Bills picked CJ Spiller at 1.9 and then used him as a complementary back.
The point is, it's perfectly possible the Panthers selected CMC intending to use him as a complementary back.
It's understandable, even. The passing game is so important these days, a receiving back who can act as a change of pace guy and return kicks is a very valuable football player.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I do not own McCaffrey anywhere, but personally, if I did, I'd be thrilled if he did what Bush did in year one - and as you point out at this stage in his career Stewart is far inferior as to what McAllister was at that point.
ETA: "Massive Hype"? It seems he has far more detractors on these boards than supporters.
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Chaka
Footballguy
I honestly don't see where you draw that conclusion from watching the film. But even if that were the case where is it written that you need X amount of "power" to be a successful running back in the NFL? What is the appropriate ratio of power to balance and/or vision(?) both of which McCaffrey has in spades. How much power does LeSean McCoy or Jamaal Charles run with?Miro Z said:
Maybe the Heisman finalist and AP player of the year from the Pac-12 is simply a better player than the pride of Chadron State College Danny Woodhead?
Reggie Bush, while clearly overrated coming from one of the most dominant college teams in history, put up 1,307 yards and 8 TDs as a rookie (+1 KR TD and 88 receptions). I think everyone who drafts McCaffrey would be thrilled with that kind of production.
Maybe someone else remembers better than I but wasn't the book on Spiller that he was physically gifted but simply had difficulty learning complex NFL offenses? To that I say, Stanford dude, Stanford.
McCaffrey isn't shy about running between the tackles and I don't see it as a fault that he seems to have an uncanny ability to slip head on tackles in the spaces.
Watch the tape again.
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I wouldn't be surprised if this is the reality for the first year at least. Stewart is Carolina's Benjarvus Green-Ellis, a safe but unimpressive producer who isn't going to lose you the game. CMC is the electric behind him that will give more overall production but ultimately won't have an RB1 season this year. Bernard put up 1200 from scrimmage his rookie year with 56 receptions and 8 TDs and was an RB1 in his second year until he started getting banged up. I would take that production all day for CMC, just avoid the injury. Bernard is a fine comp from a size and opportunity perspective, maybe even a better one than Woodhead. Everyone just uses Woodhead because... you know... they both had former MVP QBs early in their careersMiro Z said:
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pantherclub
Footballguy
Why are you comparing this situation to teams from a decade or so ago? Its not even apples to oranges, its apples to traffic cones.Miro Z said:
simey
Footballguy
It is called changing up an offense. The Panthers drafted McCaffrey so they can add a new dimension to their offense. Richardson has wanted the Panthers to incorporate a shorter passing game into their plans such as screens and check downs for some time, and now they are going to do that along with some other plays specifically designed for McCaffrey. He is the missing piece they have wanted. Cam isn't known for his soft touch on short passes, but he has been working on it, and he will get the hang of it.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
TripItUp
Footballguy
Panthers are reportedly dramatically changing their scheme. As a result, looking at historical data points is a flawed premise.
need2know
Footballguy
Right you can't just look at the past. It's gonna be different. Also I think cam runs less....
Boston
Footballguy
This is a real interesting dynamic...a lot of moving parts...Carolina is changing their offense but how long before it starts clicking? IMO so much of this (actually all of this) revolves around Cam Newton and his attitude...will he be totally onboard with changing his game after his "old" game won him an MVP...if he is then things will go smooth but if he is not totally committed to it there is a lot of room for error...curious to hear to what the Carolina fans are hearing and seeing about this aspect...
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Don't see a lot of 200 lb lead backs in the NFL. I think he'll always be paired with a bruiser.
Chaka
Footballguy
I don't think many people in here are calling him the lead back, at least not this year, but 200 lb lead backs are hardly unprecedented.
Nero
Footballguy
Saints RB's had a total of 66 receptions the year before Reggie Bush; they had 157 receptions Bush's rookie year.
Cleveland RB's had a total of 29 receptions the year before Duke Johnson; they 84 Duke's rookie year.
Last year, Cam's top 6 targets were Olsen(127), Benjamin(118), Ginn(95), Funchess(59), Corey Brown(53), Fozzy(33). There is no Ginn or Brown this year. I assume the top two targets are still going to be Olsen and Benjamin. Amongst the competition, Funchess, Samuel, Russell Shepard, Fozzy, Stewart, Brenton Bersin, and Ed Dickson, McCaffery definitely makes the top four in targets(more likely third). If he got the 59 targets Funchess got as the 4th target, you'd expect at minimum of 45 receptions at your typical RB catch rate. It is very easy to project McCaffery would get something closer to Ginn's target share of last year which should get him at least 70 receptions.
Somehow I doubt Carolina will be too dramatic in changing schemes when their franchise QB only began throwing two weeks ago...if they do change schemes radically and Cam doesn't start taking full reps real soon it's gonna be kind of a train wreck IMHO
Bigboy10182000
Footballguy
I see the 40 reception mark listed a lot with him and IMHO, it seems low. As soon as Carolina picked him I felt he was going to be their Brian Westbrook. I can seriously see 60-70 catches in year one.
been watching mock drafts for 3 weeks and he's moving up every week. (Fantasyfootballcalculator)Saw him start to cracking 3rd round last week and now saw a few where he went end of the 2nd. He's a guy who people are falling In love with and jumping early knowing he may not get back. I wanted him end of the 3rd round in my draft but can tell if he makes it back. ESPN 8 man celebrity draft yesterday he went pick 27 by Stephenie bell . which in a 12 team draft would be beginning 3rd round.
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If you look at my earlier posts, the point I was actually making was that you can get better value with Woodhead than with McCaffrey - Woodhead is likely to go considerably after McCaffrey but will get similar production.
Because one of the main arguments for CMC is that a team wouldn't use a high first round draft pick on a RB and then not make him the lead back. I am just citing historical examples of teams doing exactly that.
Boone22
Footballguy
But my question is... did the teams do that on purpose or did they draft these guys thinking they could be complete back but they didn't pan out? I'd guess Its the second rather than the first. Those guys all got the opportunity to be 3 down backs, they just didn't make it. While guys like LeSean McCoy and Devonta Freeman (who have very similar builds to CMC) did pan out as 3-down backs.Miro Z said:
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Do you really think that when the Saints used the No. 2 overall pick on Reggie Bush, their thought process was that he would make a nice complimentary back for Deuce McAllister?Miro Z said:
Now perhaps McCaffrey will also not hack it as a feature back and will always be stuck as the "small" back in a RBBC, but for every back his size that couldn't do it, I can name one that could.
The Woodhead comparison is just lazy because they are both white and small. Woodhead has been an overachiever in the NFL (and I love the guy) but you are comparing an UDFA from a Division II school to a player that was a Heisman candidate playing in the Pac 10 that was drafted in the top 10 of the NFL draft. I'm sure you can see that the two situations are not all that similar.
Again, if you read my posts, you will see that I am comparing the situation and the role. West is the primary back for Baltimore but is not that accomplished and Woodhead will have a lot of opportunities as a change of pace and third down back. Stewart is the primary back for Carolina but is ageing and CMC will have a lot of opportunities as a change of pace and third down back.
CMC and Woodhead are in very similar situations and will get similar production. Woodhead offers the better value because he is much cheaper.
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I can buy this logic for redraft purposes - but I would expect McCafrrey to be used more in the running game then Woodhead - which probably reflects why McAffrey goes before Woodhead. I do not pay that much attention to ADP (because I only do one local redraft league, but based on the mocks I've done they seem priced appropriately.
There you go, that is my point for redraft. Of course in dynasty formats CMC has much greater value.
Chaka
Footballguy
That is a dangerous gamble.Miro Z said:
Woodhead has averaged 5.4 carries per game. He averaged 6.4 carries/game in four years with San Diego and has never had more than 106 carries.
HOWEVER Woodhead has had two monster receiving years with 76 catches in 2013 and 80 in 2015 so we know he can catch really well when called upon. And he looks very likely to be called upon a lot in the Baltimore passing game. Terrance West can catch the ball quite well and he got 45 targets (34 catches) last season so he likely won't be pulled on every passing down, still the Ravens lost Kenneth Dixon (41 targets), Kyle JusczyxvXPLODE!!1111 (49 targets) and Justin Forsett (14 targets), so there should be plenty of targets for Woodhead. I don't think there will be enough targets to get Woodhead to 70 receptions mostly because there won't be enough volume with West established and Buck Allen coming back and he also can catch (62 targets, 45 receptions as a rookie).
Marty Mornhinweg has definitely shown a willingness to allow one RB to dominate touches (DOMINATE!!!!) when those RBs are Garrison Hearst, Charlie Garner, Brian Westbrook & LeSean McCoy. When he hasn't had guys like that he definitely goes with a multi-back approach, and I think we can safely say that the Baltimore RB situation appears to fall into the latter category.
Personally I don't see Woodhead touching the ball more than 120 times this year (60 carries, 60 receptions) at his high end. I think it is reasonable to project McCaffrey will hit 120 on rushing attempts alone.
Point being that you are very likely not getting even close to similar value by passing on McCaffrey and hoping to grab Woodhead later.
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I'm looking at your recent posts, where you compared his production in year 1 to Reggie Bush's, and somehow think that would be a disappointment based on his "massive hype". The one where you were shocked by how easily he went down in the last game was strange to me as well.Miro Z said:
This is the Christian McCaffrey thread, and several if not most posters in here are discussing his outlook not just for next year but long term. If your only point is that Danny Woodhead will be a better FF value this year, well you might be right but that's not the main topic being discussed.
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
Danny Woodhead is a 32.5 year old RB who is on a new team and he's never been a workhorse RB. I'd hesitate counting on him to provide startable FF production.
Run It Up
Footballguy
Well thats silly, barring injury idk how he finishes worse than rb20 in ppr leagues - the trick is to draft both in redrafts, 6 rounds apart...
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I am happy to discuss CMC's value in a dynasty as well as a redraft format. I said earlier that I thought that once Stewart departs Carolina will bring in another RB to pair with him, ie even once Stewart goes he won't be the bellcow.
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
Ok. It may be silly to you but not to me. Woodhead won't be drafted by me this season no matter what round he's available.
I'm curious how much experience some of you have with FF because a 32 year old COP RB playing on a new team and recovering from an ACL tear is not someone you should count on to give you reliable FF points. At least that's what I've learned from 25 years doing this hobby.
need2know
Footballguy
Run It Up
Footballguy
He played one game before breaking his leg last year and had 150 yards from scrimmage 6 receptions and a td.
The year before in a full season he had 106 targets and 80 catches, 1100 yards from scrimmage and 7 tds.
Hes a multidimensional back who is an incredibly underrated talent and perpetually produces. Mccaffrey is better.
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pantherclub
Footballguy
I know this is the cmac thread but if he is going in the 3rd where would you draft woodhead then?
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Not that I think Woodhead has much to do with McCaffrey aside from both RB being good receivers, but to completely pass on Woodhead seems off to me.
Baltimore doesn't have any healthy TE available and will surely need someone to check down to in their passing game. I think Woodhead is in a very good situation to have a lot of receptions for the Ravens this year.
If you are playing in a standard scoring league then Woodhead doesn't offer as much value as PPR format, but in PPR he should be a pretty solid player. At the same time receptions generally generate more yards than rushing attempts, so Woodhead could still be viable in standard scoring leagues as well because of that yardage. Maybe avoid him in TD only leagues. In standard scoring leagues Woodhead finished as RB 19 in 2013 and RB11 in 2015. In PPR Woodhead was RB 12 in 2013 and RB 3 in 2015.
32 years old is a bit of a concern for any RB, but considering that most of Woodheads value comes from his receptions, I don't see the age as being the same drawback for him as I would a RB who gets most of their points from running the ball.
I started playing fantasy football in 1986. Maybe what you have learned deserves further investigation as things do change.
If anything Woodhead is an example of a RB being very valuable in fantasy despite only having more than 100 rushing attempts once in his career. I tend to think McCaffrey will be used as a runner a lot more than Woodhead, but even if people are right in their view that McCaffrey will only be used as a COP or receiving RB, they should still recognize that he could be very productive because of his abilities as a receiver, as Woodhead has been.
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Run It Up
Footballguy
Hard for me to say, the only redraft ive participated in this season was a 10 team standard league and CMC went 39th overall (4.09) to not me. I did however take Woodhead in that draft 68th overall, 7.08. Drafted upside down, WR/TE/WR/WR/WR/WR/RB.
In the 2QB 2 keeper PPR redraft im in, been doing mocks with another player in the league on draft dominator and CMC has been going 4th/5th round (with 20 players missing from the pool) so its hard to say since its a 2QB league w/ keepers, but Woodhead has been going 9/10th round - about where Tevin Coleman, Theo Riddick, Dalvin Cook and Bilal Powell are going.
Exactly this, this has been what ive been trying to say this whole time. Worst case scenario, the detractors are right and he is a receiving back - in which case I think he is in the Woodhead/Sproles echelon. I think he will be more than that, but I find it hard to believe he will be a bust, especially if your evidence is that he is one dimensional, because he isn't and in that worst case he is still very good.
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Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
I hear ya. My post was was definitely a little exaggerated. I mean, of course I'd draft Woodhead eventually but in the 6 drafts I've completed, he's consistently going in round 5. I'm not even thinking of Woodhead until double digit rounds, personally. I'd rather have Jamaal Charles in the 11th who is in a similar situation only he's 2 years younger and has been a top 5 RB when healthy. There's always a price for a proven player but I'm basically avoiding Woodhead this season, especially in round 5! That's just insane to me.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I have been completely ignoring ADP this year as well as I can.
I agree 5th round seems high for Woodhead, I just like how things are lining up for him there.
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
You brought up some great points for sure. I'll take a guy like Marshall (aging vet switching teams) gladly but I will avoid 32 year old RBs coming off ACL surgery and switching teams. It's the combination of things for Woodhead that have me avoiding him. There are so many red flags for him this years, just seems obvious that this will be the year he falls off a cliff so to speak.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
Huh. Marshall has done well in his first season with a new team a few times already. Possible he does that again.
From what little I saw of him last year, he looked done. Maybe he just wasn't playing hard in the game I watched though.
You make a good point about the healing process taking longer for an older player than a younger one. I think that is generally true however every player is different.
Woodhead was injured at the beginning of last season and has had a full year to recover. He was cutting back in January and reported at that time to be six weeks ahead of schedule in his recovery. I haven't heard anything about setbacks. So not much of a concern for me this year. Next year he is 33 and sure the fade could happen at any time.
Anyhow McCaffrey is going to do well running the ball and likely won't have any season below 100 rushing attempts.
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
BOOM
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
I hope everyone who STILL thinks this future HOFer is Woodhead 2.0 is not giving FF advice to friends and family. I've been preaching it for months and I know its only preseason but CMC is a workhorse RB who can also catch. We're watching the next LT/Faulk, folks. He's the real deal and that last drive offered a taste of what we're going to see a lot of for the next several years.
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
