Concerning the Heinecke contract:
I think the Skins will bring him back at a reasonable number to compete for the starting job next year, or at the least the backup job if they bring in another vet this offseason. I agree with everyone here saying that it's highly unlikely any other team offers him a starting position based on his 1.25 games played over the last two years. It's in his best interest to resign with us as well, considering the starting job is within reach and he knows Turner's system so extremely well.
For as amazing as he looked in that WC game, I hope Ron keeps things in perspective and doesn't shy away from bringing in some other QB talent. The main concerns with Heinecke in my opinion are as follows:
1) Sample size- The guy has looked great for 5 quarters of football, but this is a minuscule sample size. There are countless examples of QBs coming in hot and once there is more tape available on these guys they come back down to earth. The prime example of this is a guy like Matt Flynn, who parlayed a limited stretch of good play for GB into a ridiculous contract from Seattle, only to lose his job to some kid named Russell Wilson.
2) Durability- This is the biggest knock on Heinecke and I suspect the main reason he has found himself out of football despite his on-field talent. In both games he has started (in Carolina and last Saturday) he has gotten hurt. And he ended up on the IR in both Houston and Minnesota before he was cut by those teams. His smaller stature combined with his aggressive playing style is the most likely reason for this. He can possibly learn to reign this in and protect himself (slide more, etc.), but given his track record it's highly unlikely he could hold up to the rigors of a full season. For this reason alone, it seems like his best role would be a solid back-up QB.
Good post. Right after the game, I was so encouraged, I was thinking: "Let Heinicke start!" But as you say, there are questions. He has a lot going for him, but based on his physical size (exceptions such as Brees, Wilson or Murray aside) and injury history, it's probably not best to go "all in" on him right now. He is probably a capable backup under Turner's system and so I think it's well worth making him an offer, but agreed on either drafting a guy or bringing in a vet. Thoughts on the follwowing?
Drafting a guy: I'm not bullish on drafting a guy at 19. It would probably be Mac Jones. Not sure honestly he has significantly more potential than Allen or Heinicke already in house. If you can get him second round, go for it though. But would rather go OL or WR. First round pick needs to be someone who can help us win in 2021. Jones not that guy. OL or WR could be that guy.
Vet: A lot of talk about bringing in a guy like Stafford for 3-5 years. I guess if we can get him, why not. But I have a question what it would cost, because he's still under contract. Lions won't give him away. It will cost at least our # 1 and maybe more. It also means there is no QB competition/questions in 2021. Stafford the starter, Allen and maybe Heinicke as backups, period. There are pros and cons to this. Yes, we net a legit QB. But no, we don't fill as many other needs and also don't see what we have in Allen/Heinicke for long term.
A wrinkle on the vet signing situation, if we are really bullish on Allen and Heinicke, is to sign a guy like Fitzpatrick, who will be a a free agent, to a one or two year deal. This too has pros and cons. Pros: Fitzgerald is ultimately flexible. He can start right away or he's shown the willingness to be a backup. Guys like Stafford MUST start. Fitz could do either, allowing you to see what you have in the young guys and even start them if you want. Additionally, you will not give up draft capital to get Fitz . Which means you don't just get Fitz, you get Fitz PLUS an OL or WR. So the comparison is not Fitz vs. Stafford, it's something like Fitz + Waddle vs. Stafford. That legit could change the balance of what you do. Cons: as good as he is, probably not on the level of Stafford, and won't play as long most likely.
Curious as to thoughts on this. Stafford safer, but idea of FA QB like Fitz paired with a first round pick intriguinig...