I'll go in-depth into this when I have more time, but if anyone is asking me to believe that adding Watson to THIS Team (the current personnel), playing THIS schedule (2021, including the 17th game v the Bills)...I have to be shown the 11 wins. 11 wins guarantees a playoff berth in the 6 (now 7) team playoff format. 10 wins does not, and less than 10 is a crapshoot. Less than 10 10, and maybe even 10 wins requires winning the Division as well, rather like a parlay vs a straight bet.
So, show me 11 wins. To keep everyone from donning their rose-colored glasses, and being honest, there are some stipulations:
Remember, we are talking about THIS Team + Watson. For THIS Roster to provide Watson the support to notch 11 victories minimum, in addition to acquiring him, we will need to add the following items:
1. A slashing bruiser at RB, who is capable of doing more than falling down for 3 or less yards, consistently. I love Gibson and McKissic as much as the next guy, but I will not suffer anyone telling me Gibson is a bellcow, and McKissic is anything more than Chris Thompson revisited. This is a committee backfield that is currently one man short of being complete and effective. Need a Mike Davis type, but he is likely going to be too expensive. Without a complete backfield, I doubt the Watsonskins can win 11 games.
2. Keeping Scherff and upgrading another spot on the Offensive Line. Lucas was a pleasant surprise, I guess Schweitzer held his own, and I'm OK with Roullier at C...but there are players available who would be upgrades over any of those 3. Morgan Moses has evolved into a fine RT. This unit as a whole will need to both run and pass block better if the Watsonskins have a shot at 11 wins.
3. BOTH a #2 and a #3 WR. Outside of McLaurin, there is not another WR on the WFTskins current Roster who would be anything more than a #4 WR on every single other one of all 31 NFL Teams. Need to add both an #2 and a #3, and Watson would have to be acquired in a time frame that would allow him to have excellent chemistry with all 3 WR as well as Logan Thomas by 2021 Week 1. Can't get to 11 wins if you don't come out of the gate strong, and will all pistons firing. Winning 2 out of every 3 +1 doesn't allow much margin for error or holes to dig out of.
4. A playmaking 2-way, 3-down LB (Micah Parsons, who probably won't fall to us, but you can't get (or move up) if you can't pick, or a LB of that caliber). Having a great DL is a commodity. It's EXPONENTIALLY, not incrementally, but exponentially improved upon by having a guy behind acting as a finisher. Dalton (Patrick Swayze) touched upon this concept in Roadhouse - 'You are the bouncers, I am the cleaner'. We currently have (will all personnel intact, a very good-to-great defense. We do not have an elite defense. An elite defense would not have been handled by the Buccaneers. Augment an elite DL with that stud LB, and you are have a legitimate elite front 7. That's 2/3's of an elite defense, and makes the secondary's job much easier. Missing that piece is not conducive to fielding a defense capable of supporting the Watsonskins win 11 games.
5. One more starter-caliber player in the secondary. Was Landon Collins worth acquiring? Will he be Landon Collins when he takes the field again post injury? Kendall Fuller is legit. Curl was a nice surprise and Everett can play, but are either optimal as starters? We got more out of Darby than many expected and I hope he maintains that level, and Moreau holds his own most of the time, but a coverage safety and/or CB who is a legit unquestioned starter is a must-add for this secondary to be consistently good enough for an 11 (or more) win Season...and in order to not waste a single year of Watson, you have to start winning 11 games RIGHT AWAY.
So, we add Watson. We likely weaken our biggest strength (DL) - and most would agree that that strength is one of two foundational pieces (OL and DL that almost every 11+ win Team possesses), through loss of a key personnel. We lose a 1st Round piece this year, next year, and possible 2023 as well. You know how good you have to be at hitting on Draft Picks and Free Agents to sustain that kind of loss of capital, when the hit rate of even the best teams isn't close to 100% in either area? Such a massive ask, one could almost say impossible, without a big helping of luck to augment some near-perfect decision making.
OK to mortgage the future when you're i6n a window, but we're not even in a window yet without upgrading multiple positions on both sides of the football...and the winning will have to start immediately. It's the only way you justify the cost.
6. Assuming 3-3 in the Division, which is a reasonable benchmark since it's reasonable to assume we are not improving in a vacuum while everyone else in the Division stands pat or gets worse (how much worse can our Division mates get after last year?), and assuming 1 win vs the Chiefs, Packers, Seahawks, Bucs (with Brady, who we have no reason to expect will retire) and Bills (if we play them, which is likely). That's 4-7 right there. That means 6-0 vs Saints, Panthers, Falcons, Chargers, Raiders and Broncos just to get to 10-6 or 10-7. I just can't buy into that. Assume that we, as most improving Teams do, likely will win one we're supposed to lose, and lose one we're supposed to win.
Don't win the Division and get the auto-berth, then we're thrown into the mix of 12 Teams competing for 3 WC berths, and road games throughout the Playoffs, if you get there.
That's where I'm at with this Team and this schedule, adding Watson or not, if we don't address everything else as well. Sorry to be Debbie Downer, but having been born a fan, and consciously been emotionally invested in this Team for 46 of my 52 years, and having endured the last 20 or so (the Sndyer era) in complete abject misery, I'm most comfortable being a harsh realist at this point in my fandom.
Show me the path to 11 wins and a playoff berth in 2021. Otherwise I remain convinced we use our existing capital to continue to improve everywhere else (and there are many areas in which to improve if we're to achieve the correct goal which is SUSTAINED excellence), and make the QB move, however we acquire it, next Season, when there's a better foundation in place to maximize the price of such an acquisition.
PS: I'd be all in on Fitz for cheap for 2021. Not only is he gunslinger exciting and possesses those rare leadership intangibles, but he's a proven mentor with more arm strength and versatility than Alex Smith possesses at this point. Ultimate bridge QB.
Stay patient, don't get greedy, overconfident or reaching for the shiny new toy that can't be utilized to the maximum right out of the box. Keep building. Don't put the cart ahead of the horse. Achieve an around .500 record vs a tougher slate than 2020, and strive for sustained excellence in 2022 and beyond. IMHO, that's the plan, and I'm sticking to it unless I can be convinced otherwise...and I'm open to it!
Guess I found the time, after all. Cheers!
The trick is getting Watson to buy into the idea WAS is a good spot to be.
