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QB Deshaun Watson, CLE (2 Viewers)

:hophead:  

Teams telling scouts to keep down-talking Watson so other teams will over look him.  
Mehta is a hack to begin with, but the whole premise of the article is ridculous. It's basically saying "don't believe anything you hear during the draft process. I'm hearing..."

 
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By my count there were 17 or 18 QBs drafted outside the top 5 who were starters last season.
There have probably been 40 QBs drafted outside the top 5 in the past 15 years.  Sure, some of them are "starters" but not very good ones.

Only like 6 of those are good QBs.  Roethlisberger, Roders, Carr, Flacco, Dalton...maybe Prescott but its only been 1 year.  Maybe Tannehill but he blew out his ACL and we'll see how it affects him in the future.  The rest of them aren't actually good QBs.  All of this means if you are looking for a QB, you've got about a 10%-15% chance of finding one outside the top 5.  But about 50% of the QBs drafted top 5 become good QBs.

I'd say its a better use of draft picks to trade up into the top 5 to take shots at QBs until you hit one, rather than occasionally picking one outside the top 5 every 2-3 years.

 
There have probably been 40 QBs drafted outside the top 5 in the past 15 years.  Sure, some of them are "starters" but not very good ones.

Only like 6 of those are good QBs.  Roethlisberger, Roders, Carr, Flacco, Dalton...maybe Prescott but its only been 1 year.  Maybe Tannehill but he blew out his ACL and we'll see how it affects him in the future.  The rest of them aren't actually good QBs.  All of this means if you are looking for a QB, you've got about a 10%-15% chance of finding one outside the top 5.  But about 50% of the QBs drafted top 5 become good QBs.

I'd say its a better use of draft picks to trade up into the top 5 to take shots at QBs until you hit one, rather than occasionally picking one outside the top 5 every 2-3 years.
Cousins

Dak

Rodgers

Brees

Wilson

Brady

Tyrod

Tannehill

Dalton

Flacco

Carr

Ben

Thats 12 pretty good QBs out of 32 starters, all of whom weren't top five picks so I'm not sure I agree with your math.

 
Thats 12 pretty good QBs out of 32 starters, all of whom weren't top five picks so I'm not sure I agree with your math.
It's your math that is off, because you're using the wrong denominator in your fractions,

Yes, 12/32 teams have starters drawn from picks other than the top-5, but that's not relevant...good QBs will emerge from whereever they are drafted, and find their way onto one of the 32 teams.  But the question is, how likely is it that the next ONE QB drafted by a particular team with one of those picks is going to turn into a pretty good starter?

What's missing in the analysis is the fact that a whole lot more QBs get drafted in picks 6-245 than get drafted in picks 1-5.  And those totals are the proper denominator.  QBs deemed worthy of a 1-5 pick are fairly likely to pan out.  QBs picked 6-245 are extremely likely to never achieve anything of significance at all.  The rare exceptions are the ones you listed.

As a more extreme illustration, consider asking:  "Will my team's late-round prospect be the next Tom Brady?"  It's bad analysis to say "Tom Brady is one of the 32 starting QBs in the NFL, so there is a 1 in 32 chance that John Smith will become Tom Brady."  Instead, you want to say "of all the 3000 QBs taken in the 6th or later since the NFL draft began, one has become Tom Brady.  The odds of John Smith being the next Brady are at best 1 in 3000."

 
Cousins

Dak

Rodgers

Brees

Wilson

Brady

Tyrod

Tannehill

Dalton

Flacco

Carr

Ben

Thats 12 pretty good QBs out of 32 starters, all of whom weren't top five picks so I'm not sure I agree with your math.
Tyrod is not a good starter.  Tannehill has promise but the guy has a torn ACL right now which could be a big problem since he a mobile QB.  Brees was drafted more than 15 years ago so I left him off the list.  Same for Brady.  Cousins might be good jury still out.  Dak was a rookie and we need to see more.

 
Yes, 12/32 teams have starters drawn from picks other than the top-5, but that's not relevant...good QBs will emerge from whereever they are drafted, and find their way onto one of the 32 teams.  But the question is, how likely is it that the next ONE QB drafted by a particular team with one of those picks is going to turn into a pretty good starter?

What's missing in the analysis is the fact that a whole lot more QBs get drafted in picks 6-245 than get drafted in picks 1-5.  And those totals are the proper denominator.  QBs deemed worthy of a 1-5 pick are fairly likely to pan out.  QBs picked 6-245 are extremely likely to never achieve anything of significance at all.  The rare exceptions are the ones you listed.
If you're arguing simply that when a qb is worth a top 5 pick you should take him as a general rule, sure.  If you're arguing that a team should trade up into the top 5 to take a qb, I don't fully agree as it depends on cost.  But this does not mean Watson is worth a top 5 pick.  That's individual and usually the teams that reached for a qb who wasn't worth the pick, they've regretted it. 

 
The New York Daily News' Manish Mehta relays that he has not spoken to an evaluator who views Clemson QB Deshaun Watson as a Top-10 pick.
We wouldn't be surprised if Watson is drafted in the first round, but most indications at this juncture are pointing away from a selection within the first 10 picks. That being said, ESPN's Todd McShay -- who does not grade Watson as a first-rounder -- slotted the Clemson star to the 49ers with the second overall selection in his most recent mock draft. Remember, at this time a year ago, the talk was of Laremy Tunsil, Joey Bosa or possibly Jalen Ramsey being selected first overall. Quarterbacks (Jared Goff and Carson Wentz) were ultimately selected with the first two picks, though, after the Rams and Eagles traded up.

 
 
Source: New York Daily News 
Feb 11 - 5:06 PM

 
Cousins

Dak

Rodgers

Brees

Wilson

Brady

Tyrod

Tannehill

Dalton

Flacco

Carr

Ben

Thats 12 pretty good QBs out of 32 starters, all of whom weren't top five picks so I'm not sure I agree with your math.


Throw tyrod out of that group and I think you've got a good argument there.  Then the next step is to determine the rate at which top 5 picks become bonafide franchise QBs.  Not game managers or placeholders, because if you're burning a top 5 pick on a QB you are looking for him to be the face of the franchise for the next 15 years.

 
And going back a couple of decades, the list of top 5 picks that become franchise QBs looks to be about a 50/50 proposition.

 
And going back a couple of decades, the list of top 5 picks that become franchise QBs looks to be about a 50/50 proposition.
A quick look at Top 5 picks seems to indicate the 50% proposition holds true regardless of position.  Granted, QBs seem a little more likely to be total busts - probably because the other positions get rotated in more than QB, so more opportunity to contribute.  

 
FUBAR said:
A quick look at Top 5 picks seems to indicate the 50% proposition holds true regardless of position.  Granted, QBs seem a little more likely to be total busts - probably because the other positions get rotated in more than QB, so more opportunity to contribute.  
Yeah.  That struck me, too.  A lot of mediocrity.  I think the QBs bust higher because teams reach for them.  Also, I think the true franchise QBs are taken 1.01, so any conclusions should be drawn after eliminating that pick from the pool.

 
 

NFL Films producer Greg Cosell believes Clemson QB Deshaun Watson "is an orchestrator, a distributor... along lines of Alex Smith."
Cosell doesn't use the "game manager" tag that is frequently bestowed on many passers, but the verbage is similar. The evaluator adds Watson does have some playmaking skills, but "he is not big." At some level every quarterback is a distributor, working within the structure of an offense, but the real skill is shown when the play does not go according to plan, either due to pressure or some other factor, and the quarterback must create outside of structure. We think Watson absolutely creates outside of structure, however, he is not always composed or consistent in that area.

 
 
Source: Mid Day 180 
Feb 16 - 8:52 AM

 
NFL Media draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah compared Clemson QB Deshaun Watson to Miami Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill.
 
Jeremiah tossed his comp forward on the Move the Sticks podcast. Co-host Bucky Brooks responded to that comparison in the affirmative, saying, "Both had a quick release, and you have to think of the way you build the system around them. You have to think in the same terms, a movement-based system. You want to take advantage of the athleticism." NFL Films producer Greg Cosell has comped the Clemson star to Alex Smith in terms of his abilities as a distributor.

 
 
Source: NFL.com 
Feb 17 - 8:13 PM

 
A more athletic, playmaking Alex Smith?  Sounds like a franchise QB. 
Yes I think that may have been one of the least informed efforts I have seen from Cosell. Like most, he gets as many wrong as he gets right. Alex Smith game manager distributor guy is not the first comparison that should come to mind for Watson. 

 
Pro Football Focus notes that Clemson QB Deshaun Watson is "as tough of a prospect to evaluate as there is coming out of college."
"Watson is not a pure progression passer, with his limited pocket feel and vision, and whenever that’s the case, there will be a huge risk involved when hoping to land a franchise quarterback," explains the PFF analysis team. Per the outlet, Watson's 14 interceptions in a clean pocket this past season were tied for most in the country. "The former Clemson quarterback’s work ethic and intangibles will make him an attractive option, but there will be some risk involved," concludes their breakdown. NFL Media's Daniel Jeremiah has heard that five different quarterbacks -- including Watson -- have received top ranking at their position depending on the team. While quarterback is often one of the more static positions at the top of the draft, it is much more difficult to gauge this year. Watson will be on hand in Indianapolis as a full Combine participant next week.

 
 
Source: Pro Football Focus 
Feb 25 - 1:52 PM

 
Clemson QB Deshaun Watson checked the boxes and measured in at 6-foot-2 1/2 inches and 221-pounds at the NFL Combine.

Watson's hand size is 9 3/4-inches. There were some concerns that Watson would be closer to 6-foot-1 and 205-pounds, but once again that is not the case. Watson will workout in full at the NFL Combine.
 
 
Clemson QB Deshaun Watson will meet with the Bills and Browns on Friday night.

Watson has already met with the Chiefs, who hold the 27th overall pick. The Bills and Browns are both a bit higher up in the order, picking at No. 10 and No. 12, respectively. The 6-foot-2, 221-pound Clemson gunslinger is a prospect with plenty of potential stock variance -- he has said that he has heard that he could go in the top-10 or top-5, but back in February, Manish Mehta of the New York Daily News said that he had not spoken to an evaluator who viewed Watson as a top-10 selection.

Source: Rob Rang on Twitter

 
Chiefs getting him at 27 would be a steal and ideal.  Let him sit behind smith for most of the season if not all.  Enough to make me much higher on his long term outlook. 

 
Draft Analyst's Tony Pauline passes along that Clemson QB Deshaun Watson "[threw] really well at the [C]ombine."
 
We just wrapped up the throwing drills for quarterbacks. Watson's performance figures to be picked apart over the coming days and weeks. For the time being, the 6-foot-2, 221-pounder's initial reviews are coming in hot. He met with the Bills and Browns on Friday.

 
Source: Tony Pauline on Twitter

 
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http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2017-nfl-combine-deshaun-watson-excels-on-big-stage-again-during-throwing-session/

"INDIANAPOLIS -- The quarterbacks took center stage Saturday at the NFL Scouting Combine, and just like two months ago in the national title game, Clemson’s Deshaun Watson was the best player on the field. 

Throwing immediately after North Carolina’s Mitch Trubisky (who also performed very well), Watson delivered accurate passes all over the field, showing impressive rhythm, balance and accuracy in the complicated five- and seven-step drop passes that he was rarely asked to make at Clemson

The performance was reminiscent of the one Marcus Mariota enjoyed two years ago, helping to erase doubts about his ability to make a similar transition from Oregon’s relatively simple spread offense, ultimately catapulting him to the No. 2 overall pick. 

Whereas Watson turned heads with his surprisingly polished footwork and consistent ball placement, Notre Dame’s DeShone Kizer was a stark and disappointing contrast a few hours earlier."

 
These guys move up and down the so-called draft boards between the end if the season and the draft, when they haven't even played any games since then. Watson was projected to go in top 5 by the end of last season. I don't think that ever changed in most teams minds, just people doing mock drafts.  3 teams in the top 6 need qbs. He'll be one of them. 

 
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These guys move up and down the so-called draft boards between the end if the season and the draft, when they haven't even played any games since then. Watson was projected to go in top 5 by the end of last season. I don't think that ever changed in most teams minds, just people doing mock drafts.  3 teams in the top 6 need qbs. He'll be one of them. 
We'll see what happens but I don't think the Browns draft a qb #1.   More likely, Glennon fills one of the spots - jets/bears, thus one of the 3 drop to 12.

Or, and I think this would be the smart move, we see these QBs fall like 2013.

FWIW, I actually like Watson.  A lot.  A team taking him top 6 wouldn't be surprising.  But neither would him falling to the teens.  27 would be way too far IMO, but these things do happen. 

 
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Winston threw 10 his 1st and 18 his 2nd. From a clean pocket I have no idea though. 

 
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flapgreen said:
These guys move up and down the so-called draft boards between the end if the season and the draft, when they haven't even played any games since then. Watson was projected to go in top 5 by the end of last season. I don't think that ever changed in most teams minds, just people doing mock drafts.  3 teams in the top 6 need qbs. He'll be one of them. 


You've made this assertion in multiple threads.  I'm curious how you know with such certainty what happens in NFL warrooms and further wonder why teams expend so much time and resources between the Superbowl and the draft if their boards have been set in stone for a while now.

 
-OZ- said:
We'll see what happens but I don't think the Browns draft a qb #1.   More likely, Glennon fills one of the spots - jets/bears, thus one of the 3 drop to 12.

Or, and I think this would be the smart move, we see these QBs fall like 2013.

FWIW, I actually like Watson.  A lot.  A team taking him top 6 wouldn't be surprising.  But neither would him falling to the teens.  27 would be way too far IMO, but these things do happen. 
49ers jets bears all draft qb first. Browns at 11. Unless a trade. 

 
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You've made this assertion in multiple threads.  I'm curious how you know with such certainty what happens in NFL warrooms and further wonder why teams expend so much time and resources between the Superbowl and the draft if their boards have been set in stone for a while now.
Common sense. Can't see teams evaluating a qb on tape in game situations and changing their minds much observing a qb in drills in a controlled environment, unless they just have unbelievably awful combine.  They use combine to back up most of what they already know. 

On qbs

 
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Let's start with the assertion that Watson was viewed as a top 5 pick by the end of the year. That's simply not true - maybe in some small corners but certainly not universally.

Having said that, I think he's shown he should be considered in the top 5.

 
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Common sense. Can't see teams evaluating a qb on tape in game situations and changing their minds much observing a qb in drills in a controlled environment, unless they just have unbelievably awful combine.  They use combine to back up most of what they already know. 

On qbs


Odd. common sense tells me that teams' draft boards are going to be pretty fluid based upon the effort and capital expended in the time before the draft.  Not in the sense that guys are moving 3 rounds or more, but if 50% or more of the players moved half a round to a round by the time the draft rolled around it would not surprise me in the least.

.

 
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Why would it be a poor move to draft a qb in the first? 
it isn't necessarily a mistake to draft a qb in the first six picks.  But it would be a mistake to take all 3 of these guys in the top six picks.  There are at least 5 players more worthy of a top pick than these QBs.   

 
Odd. common sense tells me that teams' draft boards are going to be pretty fluid based upon the effort and capital expended in the time before the draft.  Not in the sense that guys are moving 3 rounds or more, but if 50% or more of the players moved half a round to a round by the time the draft rolled around it would not surprise me in the least.

.
I'm talking about qbs. Pertaining to qbs, do you think boards change that much when no games have been played during that time? The teams who needed a qb at the end of the season will still need a qb by draft. 

 
it isn't necessarily a mistake to draft a qb in the first six picks.  But it would be a mistake to take all 3 of these guys in the top six picks.  There are at least 5 players more worthy of a top pick than these QBs.   
Depends on how bad you need a QB.

If I can get my starting QB, I'll do it and worry about getting a stud safety or d-lineman another way. 

 
Depends on how bad you need a QB.

If I can get my starting QB, I'll do it and worry about getting a stud safety or d-lineman another way. 
If you're sold on all 3 of these guys being starting caliber QBs, great.  But I think you're wrong. 

 
it isn't necessarily a mistake to draft a qb in the first six picks.  But it would be a mistake to take all 3 of these guys in the top six picks.  There are at least 5 players more worthy of a top pick than these QBs.   
It's relative. If a team really needs a qb, i the value of qb for them is much higher than other players available at that spot.  Without a qb, the rest of the team doesn't matter much. 

 
If you're sold on all 3 of these guys being starting caliber QBs, great.  But I think you're wrong. 
All three? Probably not. Watson yes. Trubisky maybe. Kizer not right away but eventually.

So I would consider two of the three. 

 
All three? Probably not. Watson yes. Trubisky maybe. Kizer not right away but eventually.

So I would consider two of the three. 
I'll agree with Watson.  

Just matters if the NFL teams are. I think most are willing to take that chance. 
They might be, but reaching for a qb when that qb is not worth the pick tends to set the franchise back a few years as they try to develop the guy who fails.  

If I'm the jets I sign Glennon, cutler or Taylor (if he's cut) or drafting Watson. They're blowing their team up so they look like they're taking a rookie qb or punting like the Browns last year. 

For the 49ers, I'm going after cousins even if it costs the 1.02 (while getting something back). 

Bears? Glennon or Watson. 

I'm probably not signing any free agent qb to a long term deal unless that's the market price.  I'd also consider kap if he's willing to sign a team friendly deal. 

 
I'm talking about qbs. Pertaining to qbs, do you think boards change that much when no games have been played during that time? The teams who needed a qb at the end of the season will still need a qb by draft. 


Yes.  I especially believe that to be true about any QB not considered a slam dunk (like Luck).

 
I'll agree with Watson.  

They might be, but reaching for a qb when that qb is not worth the pick tends to set the franchise back a few years as they try to develop the guy who fails.  

If I'm the jets I sign Glennon, cutler or Taylor (if he's cut) or drafting Watson. They're blowing their team up so they look like they're taking a rookie qb or punting like the Browns last year. 

For the 49ers, I'm going after cousins even if it costs the 1.02 (while getting something back). 

Bears? Glennon or Watson. 

I'm probably not signing any free agent qb to a long term deal unless that's the market price.  I'd also consider kap if he's willing to sign a team friendly deal. 
I'm not a scout, obviously.   Just going by the history of qbs being drafted. Bunch of teams need one.  The success of qbs taken after the first round is not very good.  Arguing on who deserves it and who doesn't is a different discussion.  Will have to leave it to the NFL scouts and GMs to decide, but I think need alone will lead to at least 4 qbs being taken in the top half of the first round. 

 
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