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RB Alex Collins, SEA (1 Viewer)

rickyg said:
This really is remarkable, especially when you look at what west and Allen have done behind that same o line. 

Harbaugh can talk all he wants about potentially benching collins if he fumbles more, but honestly he'd be a total shmuck for doing so.  Instead, realize what you have in this kid and get him some help with the fumbles.  It was mentioned here recently but tiki barber had the same issue and I think even got benched early in his career for it.  But coughlin worked with him and taught him a better way to carry the ball to eliminate the fumbles.  After that, barber became or of the most reliable backs in the league with regards to protecting the ball. 

Why not give a call to tiki and pay him to come in as a consultant to work with the rbs on ball security?
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No, he wouldn't. 

I don't understand how people can minimize one of the most costly mistakes a player can make. Coughing up the ball is perhaps the #1 mistake a player can make. I don't have West or Allen on my team, I am a Collins owner and I absolutely want to see him get 20 carries a game because he looks electric with the ball in his hands. He looks like the kind of player that wins fantasy leagues. 

But the Ravens are playing real football, not magic football like us and in real football there are very few things you can do that are worse than turning the ball over.  Turning the ball over once every 14 touches is horrible, I can't think of one player who lasted in the NFL who turned the ball over at that rate.  Benching a player for turning the ball over once every 14 touches is good coaching, it's smart coaching, it's real coaching.

He'll get another shot because he does appear so explosive but his leash has to be incredibly short because it would be incredibly stupid to keep trotting him out there if he keeps fumbling the ball.

 
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Chaka said:
Like I said, I concede they could have come back. If they were a better team all around they would have come back. But what they were coming back from was Collins' mistake, not Flacco's or anyone else's. It was Collins' mistake that gave Pittsburgh a lead they never relinquished. So, while I conceded it is not all on him, yup his mistake directly cost them the game.
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Do we really have to muck up this thread with this discussion?  There were ~80 plays in that game, and that play certainly hurt the Raven's chances of winning, but to say it cost them the game is really just asking for a multi-page argument that is irrelevant to Collins' long term FF value.  His fumbling might get him benched, everyone knows he has a fumbling problem, the rate that he fumbles in the future should be monitored for sure, but having an argument about one play costing any team the game is not valuable.

 
Steeler said:
Do we really have to muck up this thread with this discussion?  There were ~80 plays in that game, and that play certainly hurt the Raven's chances of winning, but to say it cost them the game is really just asking for a multi-page argument that is irrelevant to Collins' long term FF value.  His fumbling might get him benched, everyone knows he has a fumbling problem, the rate that he fumbles in the future should be monitored for sure, but having an argument about one play costing any team the game is not valuable.
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His fumbling problem is entirely relevant to his long term FF value. The fact that his most recent mistake directly cost his team a game (maybe not quite as directly as, say, Earnest Byner but it was still incredibly costly) is emblematic of the problem and underscores the difficulty that Harbaugh faces when deciding whether or not he can trust Collins going forward.

 
Chaka said:
His fumbling problem is entirely relevant to his long term FF value. The fact that his most recent mistake directly cost his team a game (maybe not quite as directly as, say, Earnest Byner but it was still incredibly costly) is emblematic of the problem and underscores the difficulty that Harbaugh faces when deciding whether or not he can trust Collins going forward.
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I agree with everything you said about his fumbling and Harbuagh's dilemma.  Continually saying "it directly cost them the game" is what could derail the thread for pages.

 
Chaka said:
No, he wouldn't. 

I don't understand how people can minimize one of the most costly mistakes a player can make. Coughing up the ball is perhaps the #1 mistake a player can make. I don't have West or Allen on my team, I am a Collins owner and I absolutely want to see him get 20 carries a game because he looks electric with the ball in his hands. He looks like the kind of player that wins fantasy leagues. 

But the Ravens are playing real football, not magic football like us and in real football there are very few things you can do that are worse than turning the ball over.  Turning the ball over once every 14 touches is horrible, I can't think of one player who lasted in the NFL who turned the ball over at that rate.  Benching a player for turning the ball over once every 14 touches is good coaching, it's smart coaching, it's real coaching.

He'll get another shot because he does appear so explosive but his leash has to be incredibly short because it would be incredibly stupid to keep trotting him out there if he keeps fumbling the ball.
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When people can not understand the value of turnovers they have lost the ability to separate real football from fantasy football...

 
tricky92 said:
Straight up Terrance West owner. No other way to make sense of this.
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Sorry guy, it's not true.  One team (MFL 31552) and no shares of West or Allen. In fact I traded Allen and Thielen for Ameer Abdullah just so I could create space to pick up Collins (there is a post about that somewhere around here either in the Thielen or Abdullah thread).

I own Collins because of this thread and it is incredibly frustrating that I cannot simply plug this guy into my lineup every week. Even more frustrating is the possibility that he blows up on my bench because I chose much, much safer options. It also reduces his trade value when he is only getting nine touches/game. Frankly if he blows up with a 15-20 touch multi-TD performance, on my bench or otherwise, I will probably try to immediately trade him for whatever value I can get.

 
Chaka said:
No, he wouldn't. 

I don't understand how people can minimize one of the most costly mistakes a player can make. Coughing up the ball is perhaps the #1 mistake a player can make. I don't have West or Allen on my team, I am a Collins owner and I absolutely want to see him get 20 carries a game because he looks electric with the ball in his hands. He looks like the kind of player that wins fantasy leagues. 

But the Ravens are playing real football, not magic football like us and in real football there are very few things you can do that are worse than turning the ball over.  Turning the ball over once every 14 touches is horrible, I can't think of one player who lasted in the NFL who turned the ball over at that rate.  Benching a player for turning the ball over once every 14 touches is good coaching, it's smart coaching, it's real coaching.

He'll get another shot because he does appear so explosive but his leash has to be incredibly short because it would be incredibly stupid to keep trotting him out there if he keeps fumbling the ball.
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Don't disagree with you, but I was wondering: Is there any evidence one way or another that benching a RB is the best response to fumbling? I mean, obviously, if a guy's not playing, he's not fumbling, but if it's someone you're going to need down the road, is it the best way to get him to stop? Not trolling here, I honestly don't know.

The two examples that jump out at me are Ridley and David Wilson. One was a productive back, the other looked like he had a lot of promise. Both got absolutely buried for their fumbling (and, coincidentally, later had their careers derailed by injuries). Not clear that was the best response by BB/Coughlin, particularly in the case of Wilson, who never seemed to get on track after that initial benching. But I have no idea if a different approach would have worked better.

 
Steeler said:
I agree with everything you said about his fumbling and Harbuagh's dilemma.  Continually saying "it directly cost them the game" is what could derail the thread for pages.
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You're right, it is an inflammatory comment, and probably acts as catnip for those who disagree. I will stop saying that going forward but I refuse to stop beating the caution drum when evaluating this guy.

 
Chaka said:
Sorry guy, it's not true.  One team (MFL 31552) and no shares of West or Allen. In fact I traded Allen and Thielen for Ameer Abdullah just so I could create space to pick up Collins (there is a post about that somewhere around here either in the Thielen or Abdullah thread).

I own Collins because of this thread and it is incredibly frustrating that I cannot simply plug this guy into my lineup every week. Even more frustrating is the possibility that he blows up on my bench because I chose much, much safer options. It also reduces his trade value when he is only getting nine touches/game. Frankly if he blows up with a 15-20 touch multi-TD performance, on my bench or otherwise, I will probably try to immediately trade him for whatever value I can get.
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Patience man, patience.

 
Chaka said:
Sorry guy, it's not true.  One team (MFL 31552) and no shares of West or Allen. In fact I traded Allen and Thielen for Ameer Abdullah just so I could create space to pick up Collins (there is a post about that somewhere around here either in the Thielen or Abdullah thread).

I own Collins because of this thread and it is incredibly frustrating that I cannot simply plug this guy into my lineup every week. Even more frustrating is the possibility that he blows up on my bench because I chose much, much safer options. It also reduces his trade value when he is only getting nine touches/game. Frankly if he blows up with a 15-20 touch multi-TD performance, on my bench or otherwise, I will probably try to immediately trade him for whatever value I can get.
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By the way, nice trade. 

 
Chaka said:
His fumbling problem is entirely relevant to his long term FF value. The fact that his most recent mistake directly cost his team a game (maybe not quite as directly as, say, Earnest Byner but it was still incredibly costly) is emblematic of the problem and underscores the difficulty that Harbaugh faces when deciding whether or not he can trust Collins going forward.
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According to ESPN, the fumble changed Pittsburgh's win probability from 69.8% to 80.0%.  FWIW.

 
zftcg said:
Don't disagree with you, but I was wondering: Is there any evidence one way or another that benching a RB is the best response to fumbling? I mean, obviously, if a guy's not playing, he's not fumbling, but if it's someone you're going to need down the road, is it the best way to get him to stop? Not trolling here, I honestly don't know.

The two examples that jump out at me are Ridley and David Wilson. One was a productive back, the other looked like he had a lot of promise. Both got absolutely buried for their fumbling (and, coincidentally, later had their careers derailed by injuries). Not clear that was the best response by BB/Coughlin, particularly in the case of Wilson, who never seemed to get on track after that initial benching. But I have no idea if a different approach would have worked better.
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Good question. I wish I had an answer. Ridley's fumbles seem to have directly resulted in being shipped out of NE, but I think his overall talent level is the reason he is not playing on Sundays (is he even on a roster?). Wilson is tougher to get a handle because his career was cut short so early.

Overall it seems like a very difficult thing to try and analyze and the reality is probably that it is different for everyone.

 
Boston said:
When people can not understand the value of turnovers they have lost the ability to separate real football from fantasy football...
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Terrance west fumbles too.  In fact had a crucial fumble in week 3.   So who does harbaugh turn to?

 
davearm said:
According to ESPN, the fumble changed Pittsburgh's win probability from 69.8% to 80.0%.  FWIW.
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I am not negating that lost fumbles are horrific to odds of a team winning.  Every defense will be keying on forcing him to fumble. Most certainly if he does not get that corrected, he will be benched.  Tiki got it corrected.  Apparently Matt Jones did not (?).  Those are the two possible paths.

However, you cannot just look at the bad.  How would taking his 50 yarder off affect the win probability?  I did not see the game, but from everything written it sure seems like Baltimore was more dynamic with Collins in. Assuming so, I am guessing that the defense had to make some sort of adjustment for Collins (vs West or Allen) and so that also would affect the win probability.  So I personally would take that downgrade from 80 to 70% (rounding) with a grain of salt.

 
rickyg said:
Terrance west fumbles too.  In fact had a crucial fumble in week 3.   So who does harbaugh turn to?
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Someone who does not fumble...I own Collins and hope he takes this job but a good Coach like Harbaugh is not going to put up with chronic fumbling...

 
Chaka said:
Good question. I wish I had an answer. Ridley's fumbles seem to have directly resulted in being shipped out of NE, but I think his overall talent level is the reason he is not playing on Sundays (is he even on a roster?). Wilson is tougher to get a handle because his career was cut short so early.

Overall it seems like a very difficult thing to try and analyze and the reality is probably that it is different for everyone.
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IIRC, he was working his way back into BB's good graces when he tore his ACL in a contract year. Pats chose not to re-sign him, he bounced around to a couple other teams but never did much. Obviously, the ACL was a big factor in derailing his career -- it's also possible he was never that great to begin with -- but I remember thinking at the time that the way he was treated didn't seem to be helping the team win games (with the obvious caveat that none of us were in the locker room and don't know what else may have been going on).

The famous counter-example, mentioned upthread, was Tiki Barber. Giants never benched him, but they did invest a lot of time in helping him address his fumbling issues, and it paid off.

So it seems to my somewhat uninformed opinion that, particularly with a guy the team has already invested a lot of resources in, the Tiki approach is better. But I'd love to see a site like the MMQB do a deep dive on the subject and get a more informed answer to this question.

As for Collins, they haven't invested much to date. But in a year where Harbaugh might be feeling the heat a little (one postseason appearance since their SB win), they have a good D and a sputtering offense, and could really use a spark, so it seems like they'd be better off trying to fix the problem and get something out of Collins rather than bury him.

 
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Boston said:
No...he wants a good offense that limits turnovers...pretty standard MO for success in the NFL...
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Except right now he doesn't have a good offense.... Probably worst in the league to be honest. Even the Jets and the Browns have a better offense.

 
He's got a good opportunity but you obviously do risk an in game benching if the ball is on the ground again.  It's a terrible situation to be in.  I can remember it happening on more than one occasion to me I believe with Arian Foster in his early years and numerous Belichick backs.  If you put the ball on the ground, you are not going to be in this league long.

 
Weebs210 said:
Except right now he doesn't have a good offense.... Probably worst in the league to be honest. Even the Jets and the Browns have a better offense.
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Sorry man but in real football Turnovers>>>Offense*

I will say that in Collins case in particular it is harmful just because of the rate at which he is turning the ball over (once every 12.5 touches this season). If he could get it to maybe once every 30 touches (still worse than his college rate) I think coaches might tolerate it. That prorates to about 8 turnovers/season based on 300 touches for a true feature back.  Once you start approaching a rate that projects to double digit turnovers for a RB it just becomes intolerable.

Clearly the Ravens desperately need Collins explosive potential on the field but right now my guess is they will try to pick their spots very carefully in an effort to minimize the potential damage. 

While I am hoping Harbaugh, once again, says something direct and affirmative regarding Collins this week, until he does when projecting whether or not to start him in my fantasy lineup I wouldn't project more than 10 touches next week.

 
So given the fumbling issue and the very real prospect that holds Collins back from taking over the primary role despite looking like the best back BAL has on the team, does Collins make for a better hold than other waiver wire targets with opportunity?

Would you rather hold Collins than vie for a Lat Murray or Rawls/Lacy or another waiver target?

 
Stompin' Tom Connors said:
So given the fumbling issue and the very real prospect that holds Collins back from taking over the primary role despite looking like the best back BAL has on the team, does Collins make for a better hold than other waiver wire targets with opportunity?

Would you rather hold Collins than vie for a Lat Murray or Rawls/Lacy or another waiver target?
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He is a hold for me, I would assume he starts the next game. Hopefully he doesn't fumble for a few games.

 
West played on a season low 16% of the snaps and was utilized 4 times last week. Despite the fumble, Collins saw a season high 25% and was utilized 11 times. This is in a game where BAL was down by 3 scores by half time.

What do you think happens when they travel to OAK to face off against the Carrless Raiders - a team that was having issues even before Carr went down? If BAL can keep this game close I think he'll receive a very relevant fantasy workload.

I know the fumbling issue is very, very real. I don't know what the dude is doing that makes it so easy to strip the ball out of his hands. If I were the coaches I'd make him carry a ball around the facility 24/7, constantly have people try to smack it out of his hands and make him run sprints if anyone ever manages to dislodge it. But being fumble prone is a correctable issue, being talentless isn't. 

 
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Stompin' Tom Connors said:
So given the fumbling issue and the very real prospect that holds Collins back from taking over the primary role despite looking like the best back BAL has on the team, does Collins make for a better hold than other waiver wire targets with opportunity?

Would you rather hold Collins than vie for a Lat Murray or Rawls/Lacy or another waiver target?
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Definite hold for me too.  DJ owner, luckily have Gurley and Martincoming back plus kamara starting to make a name for himself.  I just think Collins upside is too good to drop right now. IMO and as others have  stated, he has flashed league winning upside.

 
SameSongNDance said:
West played on a season low 16% of the snaps and was utilized 4 times last week. Despite the fumble, Collins saw a season high 25% and was utilized 11 times. This is in a game where BAL was down by 3 scores by half time.

What do you think happens when they travel to OAK to face off against the Carrless Raiders - a team that was having issues even before Carr went down? If BAL can keep this game close I think he'll receive a very relevant fantasy workload.

I know the fumbling issue is very, very real. I don't know what the dude is doing that makes it so easy to strip the ball out of his hands. If I were the coaches I'd make him carry a ball around the facility 24/7, constantly have people try to smack it out of his hands and make him run sprints if anyone ever manages to dislodge it. But being fumble prone is a correctable issue; being talentless isn't. 
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Any chance you can post another one of your sweet videos with his week 4 touches? Those are very handy, love watching this guy run

 
Stompin' Tom Connors said:
So given the fumbling issue and the very real prospect that holds Collins back from taking over the primary role despite looking like the best back BAL has on the team, does Collins make for a better hold than other waiver wire targets with opportunity?

Would you rather hold Collins than vie for a Lat Murray or Rawls/Lacy or another waiver target?
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If things break the right way for Collins, I think the Baltimore backfield could become one of the least murky ones (Collins/Allen). I don't know what percentage of Cook Murray can be though.

 
Stompin' Tom Connors said:
So given the fumbling issue and the very real prospect that holds Collins back from taking over the primary role despite looking like the best back BAL has on the team, does Collins make for a better hold than other waiver wire targets with opportunity?

Would you rather hold Collins than vie for a Lat Murray or Rawls/Lacy or another waiver target?
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Hold.

I’m not interested in Murray at all because he won’t be catching passes & I don’t think he’s nearly as capable as Cook running the ball. I just don’t see him as a viable starting FF RB at this point. Seattle is such a mess. I’ve watched a lot of Rawls in college & as a pro, he’s very capable. Fatso put up a good stat line it’s been years since he was a productive option. And ya gotta figure CJP with his big play capabilities is on that mix, too. Good luck deciphering where that is headed. 

 
Stompin' Tom Connors said:
So given the fumbling issue and the very real prospect that holds Collins back from taking over the primary role despite looking like the best back BAL has on the team, does Collins make for a better hold than other waiver wire targets with opportunity?

Would you rather hold Collins than vie for a Lat Murray or Rawls/Lacy or another waiver target?
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I think you gotta hold...he has been very productive/looks the part in his limited usage and is in a situation that is ripe for the taking...if he can earn Harbaugh's trust he could be a real fantasy asset...I think at this point you need to ride this out...

 
Most likely going to have to start him next week due to byes. Hope he doesn't get the early game benching due to a fumble.

 
SameSongNDance said:
A. Collins week 4 vs. PIT

The good: plus vision, footwork, ability to read/follow blocks, decent burst, a 50 yard run that is longer than Allen or West's career long

The bad: weak ### fumble, dropped pass, goes down too easily sometimes, doesn't have breakaway speed
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Good stuff. Thanks for putting this together, SSND.

p.s. Hopefully the Ravens' O-line can watch this a few times and subliminally channel some Jonathan Ogden.

 
If Collins fumbles again,say good bye to him at being the starter. He had the same problem in College,and he doesn't seem like he will be able to fix his fumbleitis.NO coach will put up with the fumbles no matter how good you run.Turnovers lose games,and no coach is willing to lose their job over making stupid decisions and keep playing a guy that turns the ball over once a game.. It's the reason Seattle let Collins go most likely.     It's going to be a cluster F##k at RB,once Woodhead comes back in 5 weeks and that offense is worse then the Jets..

 
Steeler said:
Do we really have to muck up this thread with this discussion?  There were ~80 plays in that game, and that play certainly hurt the Raven's chances of winning, but to say it cost them the game is really just asking for a multi-page argument that is irrelevant to Collins' long term FF value.  His fumbling might get him benched, everyone knows he has a fumbling problem, the rate that he fumbles in the future should be monitored for sure, but having an argument about one play costing any team the game is not valuable.
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teams only get about 12 possessions a game. losing a fumble every other game means you're single handedly prematurely ending about 5% of your team's possessions.

that's not good.

i'm not sure what the cutoff is, but i'd say a RB would probably have to average a really, really high YPC to be worth it.

i don't think any guy around 5 ypc or so (which is pretty good) would keep his job for long.

 
Crystalsteam99 said:
He had the same problem in College,and he doesn't seem like he will be able to fix his fumbleitis.NO coach will put up with the fumbles no matter how good you run.
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Let's try to make sense here. Bielema played him, a lot. You can't reasonably say 'college' and 'no coach' when he obviously was run out there in college to the tune of 3 straight 1000 yard seasons, a feat only done 2 other times in a player's first 3 seasons in the SEC. 

 
strong said:
teams only get about 12 possessions a game. losing a fumble every other game means you're single handedly prematurely ending about 5% of your team's possessions.

that's not good.

i'm not sure what the cutoff is, but i'd say a RB would probably have to average a really, really high YPC to be worth it.

i don't think any guy around 5 ypc or so (which is pretty good) would keep his job for long.
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Their offense is a straight up dumpster fire. Collins seemingly is the only player with talent. I think they'll put up with it. 

 
ourmanflint said:
Their offense is a straight up dumpster fire. Collins seemingly is the only player with talent. I think they'll put up with it. 
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I hope you're right but I am pretty sure no NFL coach has ever put up with a turnover every 12.5 touches.  He needs to get that to about 30 touches/turnover to be potentially viable.  :fingerscrossed:

 
If he comes out starting the game again  and has a good showing without fumbling, he will probably lock up the job in the short term. 

 
Chaka said:
I hope you're right but I am pretty sure no NFL coach has ever put up with a turnover every 12.5 touches.  He needs to get that to about 30 touches/turnover to be potentially viable.  :fingerscrossed:
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Both times he fumbled, he was doing some weird spin move and trying to make something happen rather than just securing the yards gained and possession. Definitely hope he gets that’s straigthened out. 

 
tricky92 said:
Both times he fumbled, he was doing some weird spin move and trying to make something happen rather than just securing the yards gained and possession. Definitely hope he gets that’s straigthened out. 
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Kid could be a king maker if he does.  But his fumbling problem is about more than spin moves.

 
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