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RB Alex Collins, SEA (1 Viewer)

Dr. Dan said:
I only get fantasy points for statistics. I left out their passing/receiving stats because I don't have time to look those up TBH, but aside from Murray I don't think any of them are major players in the passing game.

Just interesting that the guy has been pretty consistent with his yardage with limited usage and people are talking about cutting bait prior to week 6... Ajayi was in the same situation a year ago and he helped me go the distance last  year, even though he was inconsistent. Collins could be the same. 

If he had the same number of carries as Howard or Ajayi, by all accounts Collins would be a RB1 right now... based on his averages. And it's realistic that he could get those touches/carries. 
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When I set this week's lineup and lineups going forward , I only get fantasy points for statistics accumulated this upcoming week and going forward, not for what he guy did over the past four weeks.  Those things I mention enhance the predictive model about what to expect going forward....

 
Rove! said:
When I set this week's lineup and lineups going forward , I only get fantasy points for statistics accumulated this upcoming week and going forward, not for what he guy did over the past four weeks.  Those things I mention enhance the predictive model about what to expect going forward....
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So when you see a guys carries increase every week since joining a new team you completely ignore it for what you expect going forward?

 
Rove! said:
When I set this week's lineup and lineups going forward , I only get fantasy points for statistics accumulated this upcoming week and going forward, not for what he guy did over the past four weeks.  Those things I mention enhance the predictive model about what to expect going forward....
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So you don't take into account if a guy is trending up or down for production? Typically players seem to go through hot streaks and cold streaks. If a player is on a cold streak, usually we bench them until they can show they can do well consistently. Frequently on these boards I see people type something along the lines of "I'll wait until he can do this for 2 or 3 games in a row before I trust starting him." By your philosophy, that doesn't matter at all. The only thing that matters is the matchup, game script? I agree that those play a major factor; a team who will likely be behind in a match up is less likely to run the ball... unless you're John Fox then that means you run more. However, to completely disregard the concept of "what have you done lately" I think is a major mistake. If a guy gets 5 carries, then 8, then 10, then 15 are you not thinking that is a good predictor going forward? Let's look at Funchess... he leads the Panthers in targets over the last 3 weeks, and in redzone targets for the season. Should I completely ignore that going forward and cancel my FAAB request for him? 

 
Is this some kind of cartoon?  Is this some kind of cartoon where we throw all rationality and reasonability out the window?  (I know, "new here?")

dr Dan asked for an evaluation of four RBs, based on a very limited window of data, and I said, here are some additional considerations which are critical to review before assigning relative values...and somehow a couple of folks ere, don't see that as a reasonable position, see it as a dig against Collins and all kinds of things I never said....this place is such a cesspool...

 
Rove! said:
Is this some kind of cartoon?  Is this some kind of cartoon where we throw all rationality and reasonability out the window?  (I know, "new here?")

dr Dan asked for an evaluation of four RBs, based on a very limited window of data, and I said, here are some additional considerations which are critical to review before assigning relative values...and somehow a couple of folks ere, don't see that as a reasonable position, see it as a dig against Collins and all kinds of things I never said....this place is such a cesspool...
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Lighten up Francis

 
Rove! said:
Is this some kind of cartoon?  Is this some kind of cartoon where we throw all rationality and reasonability out the window?  (I know, "new here?")

dr Dan asked for an evaluation of four RBs, based on a very limited window of data, and I said, here are some additional considerations which are critical to review before assigning relative values...and somehow a couple of folks ere, don't see that as a reasonable position, see it as a dig against Collins and all kinds of things I never said....this place is such a cesspool...
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So you overreact to their overreaction, got it.

I think we ALL agree here that Collins is going to take the RB job in Baltimore and run with it this next week.

 
Rove! said:
Is this some kind of cartoon?  Is this some kind of cartoon where we throw all rationality and reasonability out the window?  (I know, "new here?")

dr Dan asked for an evaluation of four RBs, based on a very limited window of data, and I said, here are some additional considerations which are critical to review before assigning relative values...and somehow a couple of folks ere, don't see that as a reasonable position, see it as a dig against Collins and all kinds of things I never said....this place is such a cesspool...
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I was just making a statement how people are dropping a guy producing just the same as guys taken round 1 or 2 in redraft... 

Sure, long term those other 3 offer way more upside than Collins. I get it. I am just confused... what do people expect out of Collins? A FA signed to a brand new team prior to week 1- didn't know any of the offense and has gradually been worked in. The fact that he's producing equal to several "bell cows" out there is outstanding. Why would you give up on that? 

I'm not insinuating that Collins should be in the same conversation as Murray, Ajayi, Howard. Just saying, his production isn't that bad since he started getting carries. 

 
tricky92 said:
Do they offer way more upside, or do they just have history of production on their side? 
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Those other three RB's have a clear and defined role as the bell cow for their respective teams.

We are all sitting here and watching Collins each and every week prove he should get that role in Baltimore. And I believe as long as this "trend" continues on this trajectory coupled with Collins earning the coaching staff's trust that he can hang on to the ball.....he is clearly the best RB on the roster. Be patient. He is a WW pickup and can really help you win a title if you have the patience and depth to hang on to him. I like everything I have seen except the two fumbles. Which can happen. So far he has one more fumble than Hunt.....that's it. But his history has shown he does have a propensity to put the ball on the ground. So it deserves to be scrutinized. 

Collins looks like a heck of a pick up for the Ravens. They found something.

 
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  • You lost RB Terrance West yesterday. Do you have a plan to fill that position? (Peter Schmuck) “We do. We have to see if we can execute it, right now, in terms of what we’re going to do, who we’re going to look at. We’ll just wait until we know. I don’t want to start putting the plans out there until we know if we can pull it off.”
  • Do you like the way RB Alex Collins ran and held the ball? It seemed like the fumbling wasn’t an issue at all or that he even thought about it. (David Ginsburg) “I think you’re right. I think he was thinking about it, and that is why it didn’t seem like it was. He was very conscious of his technique, and he did a good job of it. That is important. That is non-negotiable.”
Nothing really new from Harbaugh. Surprised to see no mention of Allen in the presser. He could be talking about Allen or Collins in regards to the "who" in the first question. No extra compliments on the second question like he had after the Jags game, but nothing negative.

I still think Collins is a hold to see how things shake out the next couple of weeks.

http://www.baltimoreravens.com/news/article-1/John-Harbaugh-Press-Conference-Transcript/1671ccdc-86d7-46af-82f9-e3f3c3151d8e

 
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hamsterdam said:
  • You lost RB Terrance West yesterday. Do you have a plan to fill that position? (Peter Schmuck) “We do. We have to see if we can execute it, right now, in terms of what we’re going to do, who we’re going to look at. We’ll just wait until we know. I don’t want to start putting the plans out there until we know if we can pull it off.”
  • Do you like the way RB Alex Collins ran and held the ball? It seemed like the fumbling wasn’t an issue at all or that he even thought about it. (David Ginsburg) “I think you’re right. I think he was thinking about it, and that is why it didn’t seem like it was. He was very conscious of his technique, and he did a good job of it. That is important. That is non-negotiable.”
Nothing really new from Harbaugh. Surprised to see no mention of Allen in the presser. He could be talking about Allen or Collins in regards to the "who" in the first question. No extra compliments on the second question like he had after the Jags game, but nothing negative.

I still think Collins is a hold to see how things shake out the next couple of weeks.

http://www.baltimoreravens.com/news/article-1/John-Harbaugh-Press-Conference-Transcript/1671ccdc-86d7-46af-82f9-e3f3c3151d8e
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 The who was Bobby Rainey 

 
I ended up cutting him to pick up Breida (Hyde owner).  It was tough, but this is my RB4/5 so it was doable.  My thought process was that if Hyde goes down, Breida really gets the lion's share of the carries there.  If Allen goes down, I think Collins still gives way on passing downs (especially once Woodhead comes back).  Plus the odds that I'd end up putting in Collins over Freeman/Hyde/Kamara were not great, so had to make the tough call.  I'll still be following him though - like his running style.

 
Polish Hammer said:
I ended up cutting him to pick up Breida (Hyde owner).  It was tough, but this is my RB4/5 so it was doable.  My thought process was that if Hyde goes down, Breida really gets the lion's share of the carries there.  If Allen goes down, I think Collins still gives way on passing downs (especially once Woodhead comes back).  Plus the odds that I'd end up putting in Collins over Freeman/Hyde/Kamara were not great, so had to make the tough call.  I'll still be following him though - like his running style.
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If i were you i would have done the same thing...prob a few weeks back tho. I was a hyde owner last year. Gotta cuff him, just a matter of time. Hyde goes down..and u have instant backup. BAL RBs wont ever shake out i believe. Its Allen with sprinkle of Collins...When Woodhead comes back..who knows. 

 
The wire for me processes tonight. Im really on the fence between Collins/McGuire/Mack. I dont need anything for this week but in a couple weeks im gonna need. Wondering who will be in the better situation. I dont think RBs in BAL gets cleared up. Mack or McGuire in a few wks can be lead back

 
Weebs210 said:
So when you see a guys carries increase every week since joining a new team you completely ignore it for what you expect going forward?
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Based upon the trend data we can expect 15 carries for maybe 45 yards. After all he went from 9 ypc on 9 carries to under 5 on 12 carries therefore...

;)

 
It was disappointing to see Allen get that many more touches than Collins last week, but at least Collins didn't fumble and once again posted a far better YPC than his competition. I actually dropped Allen last week for Collins and wasn't in a rush to add Allen back this week. IMO, once Woodhead comes back he is eating into Allen's targets/touches more than Collins' touches - as long as Collins continues to hold onto the ball and look good of course - which if he does Collins might be the legit starter by that point. I guess Collins is my last bench spot right now since ADP is with AZ now and Id like to see how that pans out for a couple weeks, but with Burfict on a bye I think I'm still going to hold Collins and take a 0 in my IDP spot, see how this week shakes out, and go from there.

 
Woodhead may eat into Allen's receiving but what about inside the five? 

We'll see what happens going forward but right now it looks like Collins is being relegated to being strictly a runner between the 20s. So his big game fantasy production looks to be tied directly to his ability to break off long touchdowns.

And I don't see Woodhead returning as being beneficial for Collins in any way either.

 
Bottom is that Collins is hard capped unless he absolutely goes bonkers and seizes the #1 job. He has three, maybe four weeks to do that IMO.

 
Efritch4 said:
Terrence West out a few weeks...increased carries/touches for Collins with only Buck in his way now??

?
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I personally don't underrate Buck as a back, I think he had a 30+ point game one time... but I was thinking what you have there. Maybe Collins gets a double digit carry share moving forward. The red zone chances were ridiculously all Allen last week, Allen had 10 touches in the RZ. It would be *nice if Collins could get some of that.

 
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Forced to start him at Flex with Diggs & Parker out, but don't have much hope. Wish he was involved in the passing game, just a little.

 
SaintsInDome2006 said:
I personally don't underrate Buck as a back, I think he had a 30+ point game one time... but I was thinking what you have there. Maybe Collins gets a double digit carry share moving forward. The red zone chances were ridiculously all Allen last week, Allen had 10 touches in the RZ. It would be *nice if Collins could get some of that.
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He has a lot of touches in the RZ because of how terribly inefficient he was... that won’t work for long.

 
Chaka said:
It's a prime opportunity. It looks to be a soft opponent that let Jerrick McKinnon make them look  silly at home and it was Collins first week with top 2 RB practice reps.

15 carries is possible.
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It's more like if he doesn't get significant action, we have to question his value....despite the staff saying the fumbles are fixable and his technique was good last week, we need to see those words in action

 
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