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RB Alex Collins, SEA (3 Viewers)

Chaka said:
There is a lot to like about watching this guy run and his increased utilization. I hope we haven't seen his high water mark with 15 touches but it's possible.  Anyone know what West's timetable to return is?  Last update I read said "multiple games" even so it is tough to like the match-up in Minnesota.  The Dolphins seem like a better opportunity as do the Titans but those games are two and three weeks away followed by the Ravens bye week.  The schedule looks a little easier after the bye but presumably West and Woodhead both return week 11

So what are the realistic expectations for Collins ROS?  As much as I want to believe this kid could be a King Maker I just don't see how the stars could align to make that happen.

Hope I'm wrong...unless I drop him tonight.
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He got 15 carries last game and has completely outplayed every RB on the Ravens roster. Why is it unrealistic to think he could be getting 20 carries a game if the Ravens are actually trying to win football games? 20 Carries a game and he's a RB 2 at worst. 
No stars need to align for that to happen. He needs to continue to run like he's running, and not fumble. If he does that, West won't be a factor. We're talking about Terrance West here, not Kenneth Dixon. West is garbage, he's average 3.5 YPC. 

Woodhead (who is old and extremely fragile), will battle with Allen for receptions out of the backfield. 

Drop him at your own risk. 

 
Unfortunately no mention of Collins by Harbaugh or the reporters in the press conference transcript, unlike the past couple of weeks I've been posting them.

Isn't necessarily a bad thing of course.

I'm definitely holding, and eager to see his usage again this weekend.

This is in fact the slowest break out of all time, but I still believe.

 
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hamsterdam said:
Unfortunately no mention of Collins by Harbaugh or the reporters in the press conference transcript, unlike the past couple of weeks I've been posting them.

Isn't necessarily a bad thing of course.

I'm definitely holding, and eager to see his usage again this weekend.

This is in fact the slowest break out of all time, but I still believe.
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Good points.

Lets step back a second from the FF bubble. 

His snap counts and utilization have been on a nearly linear trend upward since Week 2. 

Alex Collins leads the NFL in YPC (6.4) by a good margin (Darkwa is 2nd at 5.7.)

He is second (to Hunt) amongst RBs in 20+ runs.

After a healthy scratch Week 1, he is averaging 67.0 YDS/G - good for 12th in the league, and on pace for 1,005 yards over 15 games.

I get what you mean, the FF breakout hasn’t come yet. He has 0 TDs, 0 receptions (2 targets), two fumbles (good for -4.00 in many formats.)

In full PPR, he’s RB52 (league with chunk play bonuses - he’s RB57 in regular PPR), and RB62 in PPG. Allen is RB18. Over the last 3 games, Collins has 70.33 yards /G, Allen just 43.00.

I believe the trend is your friend. Despite the nonexistence in the passing game, the lack of RZ opportunities, he’s a legit NFL runner.

But...

2017 Ravens RB RZ touches:

Allen - 16

West - 5

Woodhead - 2

Collins - 0

Thats a problem. Explosive runner, zero upside - YTD, could change - in either the passing game or inside the 20. Not even a solid Flex play ATM but this kid can ball IRL.

ETA: data from SSND's Film Room & Analytics 2017:

Alex Collins

Snaps: DNP, 12%, 17%, 25%, 24%, 30%

Utilization: DNP, 7, 9 , 11, 12, 15

 
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I think Christine Michael still holds the record for slowest breakout ever. Still waiting on that one.

Chaka said:
Have a claim in for Darkwa, debating Dion Lewis if I don't get Darkwa but I would probably stick with Collins.
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Debating Lewis myself after Darkwa as I love the guy, but strangely (given my holding of Collins) I don’t think the NE backfield is reliable in guessing who gets carries when and I think it’s too crowded with runners B.B. can change up at will depending on his game plan.

So instead of Lewis I’m using claims after Darkwa on handcuffs primary back owners didn’t grab - like Ivory, Foreman, etc.

 
Stompin' Tom Connors said:
I think Christine Michael still holds the record for slowest breakout ever. Still waiting on that one.

Debating Lewis myself after Darkwa as I love the guy, but strangely (given my holding of Collins) I don’t think the NE backfield is reliable in guessing who gets carries when and I think it’s too crowded with runners B.B. can change up at will depending on his game plan.

So instead of Lewis I’m using claims after Darkwa on handcuffs primary back owners didn’t grab - like Ivory, Foreman, etc.
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I certainly wouldn't drop Collins for Ivory or Foreman. Still probably wouldn't for Lewis either. But I can't seem to convince myself to keep Collins over Darkwa.

 
Chaka said:
I certainly wouldn't drop Collins for Ivory or Foreman. Still probably wouldn't for Lewis either. But I can't seem to convince myself to keep Collins over Darkwa.
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I agree - dropping a bye week filler  for Ivory or Foreman.

Collins for Darkwa is a tough choice. Darkwa has the much clearer path already and hasn’t looked terrible. 

On the other hand, while Collins doesn’t have that clear trajectory, when he breaks into space he looks fantastic.

Guess it depends on how sharky the rest of your league is. Are they lotto hunters and watch games scouting talent? Or do they just look at Evan Silva’s weekly add/drops for bye week fillers or chase points by one week wonders?

And how are you situated in the win/loss columns? If you need to pick up a few wins at all costs, Darkwa may be the safer road given a potentially more dependable floor. If you are sitting pretty at or near the top, you can afford to be more patient to see if the higher ceiling with Collins comes to pass.

I don’t envy that choice. My brain would say Darkwa but my heart would be with Collins.

 
Stompin' Tom Connors said:
I agree - dropping a bye week filler  for Ivory or Foreman.

Collins for Darkwa is a tough choice. Darkwa has the much clearer path already and hasn’t looked terrible. 

On the other hand, while Collins doesn’t have that clear trajectory, when he breaks into space he looks fantastic.

Guess it depends on how sharky the rest of your league is. Are they lotto hunters and watch games scouting talent? Or do they just look at Evan Silva’s weekly add/drops for bye week fillers or chase points by one week wonders?

And how are you situated in the win/loss columns? If you need to pick up a few wins at all costs, Darkwa may be the safer road given a potentially more dependable floor. If you are sitting pretty at or near the top, you can afford to be more patient to see if the higher ceiling with Collins comes to pass.

I don’t envy that choice. My brain would say Darkwa but my heart would be with Collins.
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Darkwa has done a lot more than not "looked terrible." He's looked fantastic and seems to already be the #1 in the Giants 1-2 punch (I think we all agree that Perkins is a non-factor). 

I think they are on comparable teams IMO. Eli is much better than Flacco IMO but I know some might argue otherwise.

Your last point is the question for me. I don't need a RB. Not in the least but others do and I think if both Collins and Darkwa were available they would all choose Darkwa by a wide margin. Some might not even go after Collins if I dropped him outright. Darkwa blew up in prime time on the road against, allegedly the top defense in the league. Collins has been playing morning games, mostly, getting limited touches, hasn't caught a pass or scored a TD.  He may have had one play that made the highlight reel. We have all watched every play of his but we're the minority. The majority watches SNF and MNF. It doesn't make them right but it does make them easier to sell to.

Not sure what I am going to do but I think, ultimately, I will be equally fine with either.

 
I'm in must-win mode and may have to drop him for Chris Ivory but only if Fournette is for sure out. Otherwise I'm going to try and stash this guy away.  Upside is there, hopefully he'll be the main guy sooner rather than later.

 
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Got outbid for Darkwa by the Big Blue homer in my league, who now has 5 Giants in his team - after dropping OBJ. Enjoy your stay in 8th place, bruh.

Collins was the consolation prize. The plan (subject to change) is to hold because I love his schedule Weeks 13, 14, & 16. With Bell, Martin, Mixon, & Smallwood I doubt he starts on my magic football team before then, but I like this guy a lot as a RL football player.

Not surprised Buck Allen is crushing him in the pass receiving Dept but I’m hoping Harbough will start using him in short yardage more, & provided he does his job WRT ball security, give this some RZ shots. He’s got some Marion Barber / Chris Ivory -type demon inside him.

 
BobbyLayne said:
Got outbid for Darkwa by the Big Blue homer in my league, who now has 5 Giants in his team - after dropping OBJ. Enjoy your stay in 8th place, bruh.

Collins was the consolation prize. The plan (subject to change) is to hold because I love his schedule Weeks 13, 14, & 16. With Bell, Martin, Mixon, & Smallwood I doubt he starts on my magic football team before then, but I like this guy a lot as a RL football player.

Not surprised Buck Allen is crushing him in the pass receiving Dept but I’m hoping Harbough will start using him in short yardage more, & provided he does his job WRT ball security, give this some RZ shots. He’s got some Marion Barber / Chris Ivory -type demon inside him.
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In PPR, I think you could make a case however for owning Chris Ivory over this guy...

 
greyhorse said:
In PPR, I think you could make a case however for owning Chris Ivory over this guy...
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Yeah Collins is obviously better suited for standard (2 targets, 0 Rec.) Lots of humorous quips about Ivory getting 9-74-0 last week. Dude had something like 5 catches in his first 4 years and now has exactly three 5+ catch games in his 8 year career. But he is pace for 43 receptions, which would top his previous high of 30 by a good margin.

 
So awesome if he did a river dance on his first TD this year., or what if instead of high stepping prime time style he did a river dance into the end zone when it was clear he had it in the bag, LOL.

 
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Stompin' Tom Connors said:
Hey, I'm a big Collins fan, but isn't the whole knock on Collins/Mitch Finn (even in this thread) is that he is pretty reliant on TDs to be relevant too?
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Collins has a much better ypc and passes the eye test. I see him getting goal line work in the near future. Stewart is good for 30-50 yards and a prayer for a goal line plunge. Plus Collins is due to rip of a long td soon, I think that my be out of the picture for Stewart at this point in his career. Plus if you drop Stewart someone may be stupid enough to play him against you.

 
Stompin' Tom Connors said:
Hey, I'm a big Collins fan, but isn't the whole knock on Collins/Mitch Finn (even in this thread) is that he is pretty reliant on TDs to be relevant too?
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Right now he's slowly trending in a positive direction and is evening the snap count, but not getting goalline carries or being involved in the passing game hurts; It makes him overly reliant on the 15+ yard run. It comes down to who you think is a better runner... to me that's Collins.

 
In Zimmers press conference today he couldn't remember the names of the Ravens RBs besides West.

They were asking him about his experience playing Baltimore from back when he was with the Bengals which was a pretty long time ago.

 
Biabreakable said:
In Zimmers press conference today he couldn't remember the names of the Ravens RBs besides West.

They were asking him about his experience playing Baltimore from back when he was with the Bengals which was a pretty long time ago.
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Zimmer better put some respect on Collins name

 
Sadly, I had to get off this train in my main dynasty. I am down 5 WRs and moved him for DJax, who walks into my starting lineup this week.

Still waiting for imminent the blowup in a couple less important leagues though  :popcorn:

 
Weebs210 said:
You can't keep Collins and get darkwa? I'm sure you have others you can drop.
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7 RB roster limit:

Carlos Hyde

Doug Martin

Jordan Howard

Jerrick McKinnon

Ameer Abdullah

Derrick Henry

Alex Collins Orleans Darkwa

 
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I did make the move and got Darkwa while dropping Collins.  Waivers processed at midnight this morning. It's 7:28 PM Pacific Time and no one has made a move to acquire Collins yet.  

I am now working every trade avenue I can to trade a RB + another player to make room to reacquire Collins. There are maybe three other owners that I am worried may make a play for him but...such is life.

 
Biabreakable said:
In Zimmers press conference today he couldn't remember the names of the Ravens RBs besides West.

They were asking him about his experience playing Baltimore from back when he was with the Bengals which was a pretty long time ago.
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Well, at least he didn't pull a Jeff Fisher. I remember last year when Fisher was asked about how he was going to prepare for NE's backfield he started praising Danny Woodhead, who hadn't been with the team since 2012. That #### was great.

 
I don't think Zimmer plays fantasy football or else he might know stuff like this.

At least he remembered what college Buck Allen went to.

The Vikings defense is 3rd best against the run so far this season which is an improvement from the last couple seasons. Pass defense is still good but the run defense has improved to match that now.

Not a good match up to be hoping for Collins to break out.

 
Biabreakable said:
I don't think Zimmer plays fantasy football or else he might know stuff like this.

At least he remembered what college Buck Allen went to.

The Vikings defense is 3rd best against the run so far this season which is an improvement from the last couple seasons. Pass defense is still good but the run defense has improved to match that now.

Not a good match up to be hoping for Collins to break out.
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So you're saying there is a chance.. I can't quit you, Collins!

 
Biabreakable said:
I don't think Zimmer plays fantasy football or else he might know stuff like this.

At least he remembered what college Buck Allen went to.

The Vikings defense is 3rd best against the run so far this season which is an improvement from the last couple seasons. Pass defense is still good but the run defense has improved to match that now.

Not a good match up to be hoping for Collins to break out.
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All the more reasons for Buck to get less carries and Collins more. Need to put the ball in your only dynamic player✋s.

 
Watch collins pull a Darkwa this week and have a breakout game against one of the best run defenses in the league in everyone’s bench.  That’s pretty much how football works isn’t it?  Lol.  

 
rickyg said:
Watch collins pull a Darkwa this week and have a breakout game against one of the best run defenses in the league in everyone’s bench.  That’s pretty much how football works isn’t it?  Lol.  
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I'm considering starting him.... my alternative is Cohen and I can't trust him too much. If he didn't throw that TD last week he would have had another dud. Collins is scoring almost the same as Cohen, but without TDs. Both are interchangeable in my mind as desperation plays. 

 
I like the kid, but what is there left to debate/discuss that you guys haven't already beaten to death by now? This thread won't leave the front page, which makes me (and probably others) keep thinking there is legitimate news in here.

 
Tommy Collins said:
I like the kid, but what is there left to debate/discuss that you guys haven't already beaten to death by now? This thread won't leave the front page, which makes me (and probably others) keep thinking there is legitimate news in here.
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I think a lot of people discussing his potential as an actual starter. For example, I am highly considering starting him this week if West is out. I would like to see if others are considering the same. 

The Devante Adams thread is on page 1 with people discussing whether or not he's going to be on the Packers 6 months from now- that's even more worthless information. 

His carries have grown from 7-9-9-12-15. Dion Lewis' thread was on page 1 because he got 10 carries one game. Prosice's thread is on page 1, he hasn't been active for 3 weeks. At least Collins has been active, seen his role grow, and there's legitimate point to be made on him being a flex/RB2 starter this week  :shrug:  

I look forward to you complaining in those other threads about the irrelevancy of them being on Page 1

 
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Dr. Dan said:
I think a lot of people discussing his potential as an actual starter. For example, I am highly considering starting him this week if West is out. I would like to see if others are considering the same. 

The Devante Adams thread is on page 1 with people discussing whether or not he's going to be on the Packers 6 months from now- that's even more worthless information. 

His carries have grown from 7-9-9-12-15. Dion Lewis' thread was on page 1 because he got 10 carries one game. Prosice's thread is on page 1, he hasn't been active for 3 weeks. At least Collins has been active, seen his role grow, and there's legitimate point to be made on him being a flex/RB2 starter this week  :shrug:  

I look forward to you complaining in those other threads about the irrelevancy of them being on Page 1
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Look, if there is a legitimate discussion taking place, fine. But when there is no news, and it's just a speculation discussion back and forth for several pages, what are we learning? It's just beating a dead horse. I like the kid and think he's getting a raw deal by Harbaugh, but what I think won't change it. I have no news or analysis to suggest otherwise.

 
Dr. Dan said:
I think a lot of people discussing his potential as an actual starter. For example, I am highly considering starting him this week if West is out. I would like to see if others are considering the same. 

The Devante Adams thread is on page 1 with people discussing whether or not he's going to be on the Packers 6 months from now- that's even more worthless information. 

His carries have grown from 7-9-9-12-15. Dion Lewis' thread was on page 1 because he got 10 carries one game. Prosice's thread is on page 1, he hasn't been active for 3 weeks. At least Collins has been active, seen his role grow, and there's legitimate point to be made on him being a flex/RB2 starter this week  :shrug:  

I look forward to you complaining in those other threads about the irrelevancy of them being on Page 1
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Not to mention that many of us play in Dynasty leagues and are closely following a young explosive player to see where this goes.  So the discussion is quite valuable for us. 

 
Tommy Collins said:
Look, if there is a legitimate discussion taking place, fine. But when there is no news, and it's just a speculation discussion back and forth for several pages, what are we learning? It's just beating a dead horse. I like the kid and think he's getting a raw deal by Harbaugh, but what I think won't change it. I have no news or analysis to suggest otherwise.
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So instead of discussing the player we should discuss not discussing the player?

 
Weebs210 said:
So instead of discussing the player we should discuss not discussing the player?
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You know, I expect nothing less around here. Continue bumping threads for no reason all season long. Same thing happened last year with that DET RB that did nothing.

 
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