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Alex Collins - RB - Ravens


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1 hour ago, Brisco54 said:

We have reached that time of the year where you dread seeing a given player's thread make it back to the Shark pool front page cause it is normally bad news.

Thankfully, it appears this bump was no new news.

No news is good news for established starters for the next month..

A bump of the Alex Collins Thread means the universe is in working order. You should worry if it's not on the front page. 

Edited by cloppbeast
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8 hours ago, Chaka said:

IDK but even if true what does Gillislee have to do with Collins?

And you don't have to be a bum to fall out of favor with Belichick.

It was in reference to another poster talking about Collin's nice DVOA. At RB? He fell out of favor because HE IS A BUM. He will probably be cut

Edited by hardcoredx
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3 minutes ago, hardcoredx said:

It was in reference to another poster talking about Collin's nice DVOA. At RB? You pretty much have have to be a bum

Again I have no idea what that had to do with Gillislee. Is he the first RB to have a nice DVOA? If not has every RB with a nice DVOA failed to produce subsequently?

It just seemed like an arbitrary comparison.

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On 7/26/2018 at 0:34 AM, Brisco54 said:

I am loving all the talk of including him more in the passing game.

I think his receiving projections are being undersold. In looking at game logs, it appears it took them 3-4 games to work him into the passing game. Once they did he average 2.5 catches a game. So if he keeps that up he's at 40. But if they are working him into the passing game in camp that number could drift up to 50. Makes him a very enticing and under-the-radar ppr play.

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  • 2 weeks later...

He's the first rb I'm willing to take in the late 3rd/4th round area once Mccoy is drafted.  That being said I have him pretty equal with Ajayi and Freeman right now.  Each of those three present an argument for upside and downside, and for different reasons....I like all 3 of them.

Do we know what the goal line situation is?  To me the danger is they use Collins as the "between the 20's" guy and then let Allen finish off drives.  I'd probably bump Collins up even higher if we had a better read on who's going to get the goal line work.

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50 minutes ago, Ace08 said:

He's the first rb I'm willing to take in the late 3rd/4th round area once Mccoy is drafted.  That being said I have him pretty equal with Ajayi and Freeman right now.  Each of those three present an argument for upside and downside, and for different reasons....I like all 3 of them.

Do we know what the goal line situation is?  To me the danger is they use Collins as the "between the 20's" guy and then let Allen finish off drives.  I'd probably bump Collins up even higher if we had a better read on who's going to get the goal line work.

I like him more than Ajayi. I think the Eagles have a lot of mouths to feed & with Sproles coming back a lot of spread the wealth in the backfield. Especially if Smallwood pops at all (that sounded dirtier than intended, sorry).

Ajayi is a nice back who’s going to be frustrating to own due to inconsistency. I think Collins offers a far more consistent floor & also a better ceiling. It felt like he took the job last year so I’m less concerned about Dixon & Buck Allen than I am Ajayi’s backfield mates. 

I love Collins in the 3rd. Picking where I am in one league I’ll have no shot at him this year. Kinda bummed about that. 

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8 minutes ago, hamsterdam said:

After having watched a lot of Collins last season and following his progress, I’m targeting him in every draft. I think he’s for real. 

His ADP has been steadily rising, and I was hoping he drops to the 4th but I’ll take him at 3.06 if I have to. 

I’ve been mocking like crazy & he’s only made it to the 3.12/4.01 spot once, and none times in the last 3 days. 

Small sample size, but his ADP suggests he’ll be gone in the 3rd in the majority of leagues.

Solid RB1 if you go WR-WR IMO. 

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I am a Collins fan and want to draft him. Then I read the below. Is this really worth mentioning.

Quote

Collins is a one-dimensional running back, as his receiving defense-adjusted yards above replacement and defense-adjusted value over average both were last among running backs with at least 25 targets.

 

Fantasy Football Busts 2018: 5 Running Backs to Flag

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1 hour ago, Ace08 said:

He's the first rb I'm willing to take in the late 3rd/4th round area once Mccoy is drafted.  That being said I have him pretty equal with Ajayi and Freeman right now.  Each of those three present an argument for upside and downside, and for different reasons....I like all 3 of them.

Do we know what the goal line situation is?  To me the danger is they use Collins as the "between the 20's" guy and then let Allen finish off drives.  I'd probably bump Collins up even higher if we had a better read on who's going to get the goal line work.

I have that area ranked Freeman>McCoy>Collins>Ajayi. I fully expect Buck Allen to be involved in the offense, but Collins should see at least a 2-1 split. I'd be terrified of going WR-WR(or Gronk) and ending up with any of those guys other than Freeman as my RB1.

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29 minutes ago, travdogg said:

I have that area ranked Freeman>McCoy>Collins>Ajayi. I fully expect Buck Allen to be involved in the offense, but Collins should see at least a 2-1 split. I'd be terrified of going WR-WR(or Gronk) and ending up with any of those guys other than Freeman as my RB1.

Don't be scurrrrred!  Collins in the 3rd, Lamar Miller in the 4th, Kerryon Johnson in the 5th. etc..

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59 minutes ago, leftcoastguy7 said:

I am a Collins fan and want to draft him. Then I read the below. Is this really worth mentioning.

 

Fantasy Football Busts 2018: 5 Running Backs to Flag

I looked at the article, but I must be misunderstanding something about the stats.  The article says Allen is the much better receiving back, but Allen had a 4.17 yards (60 targets for 250 yards) per target and Collins had a 5.19 yards (36 targets for 187 yards) per target.  Other than Collins missing the first game of the year versus the Bengals, their opponents are identical, so how is Collins last in "receiving defense-adjusted yards above replacement and defense-adjusted value over average ...among running backs with at least 25 targets" and not Allen?

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1 minute ago, Brisco54 said:

I looked at the article, but I must be misunderstanding something about the stats.  The article says Allen is the much better receiving back, but Allen had a 4.17 yards (60 targets for 250 yards) per target and Collins had a 5.19 yards (36 targets for 187 yards) per target.  Other than Collins missing the first game of the year versus the Bengals, their opponents are identical, so how is Collins last in "receiving defense-adjusted yards above replacement and defense-adjusted value over average ...among running backs with at least 25 targets" and not Allen?

yes you misunderstood the stats.yard per catch isnt the statistic that matters here

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5 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

yes you misunderstood the stats.yard per catch isnt the statistic that matters here

scroll down to "RECEIVING: Minimum 25 passes, 62 players ranked" and look at the bottom

 

if you have questions about the stats you can read the top

 

 

Edited by Dr. Dan
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Just now, Brisco54 said:

Please explain the one that does then.

Is this nothing more than the thing we all already knew, that he was not used much in the passing game last year?  If so, I do not see how it adds to the discussion.

More importantly, that particular point, if reports from the training camp are to be believed, is now OBE.

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6 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

scroll down to "RECEIVING: Minimum 25 passes, 62 players ranked" and look at the bottom

 

 

Thanks for posting this, but now I am much more confused.  How, specifically is DYAR computed?  I went to this page https://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods   and it did not help. I am all for advanced data analysis, but It needs to make sense with the data I do understand, and so far DYAR does not... maybe I am too dense.

How can the most used RB on the team have the worst DYAR when his raw stats are the best?  I could understand if we were talking a small sample size or something, but we are talking about 36 plays and saying that he got 92 less yards out of those plays then a replacement would?  Especially when PFF rates him as "High Quality" (second highest ranking) as a receiver?

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2 hours ago, leftcoastguy7 said:

I am a Collins fan and want to draft him. Then I read the below. Is this really worth mentioning.

 

Fantasy Football Busts 2018: 5 Running Backs to Flag

I'm looking at a guy with a 4.6 YPC last year that they are saying lacks speed and athleticism yet he gets the job done and then some. There are lots of very successful guys in the league who aren't burners. And there are lots of guys that can run an amazing 40 who didn't amount to squat in the NFL. Speed matters in choosing a player before they strap on the pads and play on Sunday. If he can keep running at 4.6 yards a carry, he could have a club foot and a cast on the other and he would start. 

Also, he didn't catch a pass until week 8 last year. He was only throw to once before week 8. Extrapolate his 23 catches he had over the last 9 games and that comes to 40 catches over 16. The article says he can't catch and they love the other RB's on the roster who can. That may have been the case the first 7 games, but after that they trusted Collins to catch the ball. That and 8 yards per catch isn't terrible. 

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On 8/17/2018 at 7:07 PM, leftcoastguy7 said:

I am a Collins fan and want to draft him. Then I read the below. Is this really worth mentioning.

 

Fantasy Football Busts 2018: 5 Running Backs to Flag

I don't care about burst score or percentiles, especially not when someone has a full season of NFL tape to show. He's not the best athlete, but he's proven that he's a good enough athlete to get the job done. And he can certainly play ball, so I wouldn't worry about that fluff piece. 

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On 8/18/2018 at 2:09 PM, Conan Troutman said:

I don't care about burst score or percentiles, especially not when someone has a full season of NFL tape to show. He's not the best athlete, but he's proven that he's a good enough athlete to get the job done. And he can certainly play ball, so I wouldn't worry about that fluff piece. 

He's got good vision and he can make cuts.

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On 8/17/2018 at 3:37 PM, TheFanatic said:

I'm looking at a guy with a 4.6 YPC last year that they are saying lacks speed and athleticism yet he gets the job done and then some. There are lots of very successful guys in the league who aren't burners. And there are lots of guys that can run an amazing 40 who didn't amount to squat in the NFL. Speed matters in choosing a player before they strap on the pads and play on Sunday. If he can keep running at 4.6 yards a carry, he could have a club foot and a cast on the other and he would start. 

Jordan Howard, Kareem Hunt, Le'Veon Bell, ect. For an historical example Arian Foster. 

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1 minute ago, TheFanatic said:

Remember how slow Bell was? He was shredded on these boards. 

Yeah, I remember. But Bell might be a bad example on the account he's gained quickness and speed since college after losing weight. He's one of the more athletic running backs in my view. Then again, speed is not the same thing as athletic ability. A fluid player can make cuts and defenders miss, which to me is more important than flat out speed. This is something that doesn't show up on combine measurements either. Neither do vision and savvy: setting up blocks, processing the play, creativity. 

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This page https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/alex-collins/

has Alex Collins as the #9 best RB in 2017 at evading tackles, #5 in elusiveness/juke rate, & #2 at breakaway run and breakaway run rate.  

He was the #4 RB in YPC against a stacked front, but only #22 versus a weak front.  This seems to blend with comments about his vision and running skills versus simple speed.

It seems like much of his success may depend on game script.  

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4 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Possibly to keep him from getting hurt. It’s Week 2, a lot of starters don’t play.

That make sense except all of their other starters are out there (Flacco, Brown, Crabtree etc.) I was wondering if Collins may be nursing an injury (like Saquon) 

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Just now, Yenrub said:

That make sense except all of their other starters are out there (Flacco, Brown, Crabtree etc.) I was wondering if Collins may be nursing an injury (like Saquon) 

Yeah not sure - haven’t heard anything. Could be something minor and they’re keeping him out or maybe he got himself in the doghouse.

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8 minutes ago, Buck Bradcanon said:

Ken Dixon went 6 for 32 and added 3 for 24.  At a minimum I think you have to add him late if you draft Collins.

No doubt that I’d add Dixon late if I had Collins. As I mentioned in the Dixon thread, almost all of Dixon’s production came in last minute of the half against scrubs playing prevent defense (poorly). No reason to be worried about Collins still being the lead guy here. 

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Just now, Cobbler1 said:

No doubt that I’d add Dixon late if I had Collins. As I mentioned in the Dixon thread, almost all of Dixon’s production came in last minute of the half against scrubs playing prevent defense (poorly). No reason to be worried about Collins still being the lead guy here. 

Thanks for the context.  I didn't get to watch.

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 8/17/2018 at 2:37 PM, Brisco54 said:

Thanks for posting this, but now I am much more confused.  How, specifically is DYAR computed?  I went to this page https://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods   and it did not help. I am all for advanced data analysis, but It needs to make sense with the data I do understand, and so far DYAR does not... maybe I am too dense.

How can the most used RB on the team have the worst DYAR when his raw stats are the best?  I could understand if we were talking a small sample size or something, but we are talking about 36 plays and saying that he got 92 less yards out of those plays then a replacement would?  Especially when PFF rates him as "High Quality" (second highest ranking) as a receiver?

I'm all for begging off reading content and having others summarize....I do it all the time....but the problem here is that there's not really a cliff notes version of footballoutsiders stats such as DYAR.  Over-simplistically you can't compare stats of player A and B from randomly selected games; you have to compile situation-specific comparable stats to avoid comparing apples and oranges.  Viewed through the lens of situation specific baselines, Collins looks a lot less promising.

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