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Economic Death Spiral? Potential :roost:ing ahead


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I don't want to be alarmist, but it appears that a variety of chickens are coming home to roost once again in the global economy. This shouldn't be construed as investment advice, but with the S&P 500 really only a few percent off of an ALL TIME HIGH, it might be a good time to consider how much exposure you want to have.

Key Reading:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-05/citi-we-should-all-fear-oilmageddon?bcomANews=true

A couple items from a few months back that are still very relevant:

http://www.businessinsider.com/china-is-in-the-midst-of-a-triple-bubble-2015-7

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21678220-first-america-then-europe-now-debt-crisis-has-reached-emerging-markets-never-ending?zid=295&ah=0bca374e65f2354d553956ea65f756e0

i sold all of my non retirement stocks a year ago. Ejected out of biggest holdings of aapl and dis and am hoarding cash to buy back in.

All of my retirement holdings I am just leaving as is, although moved half into more defensive funds that exceed market in times of decline.

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Fed’s Mester downplays market volatility:
  • Cleveland President Mester (FOMC voter) noted recent market volatility poses some risks, but does not change her outlook for continued US economic growth and labor market improvement. Argued solid jobs and income growth suggest economic fundamentals remain intact and said she expects US economy to work through latest episode of market turbulence and soft patch, even as energy and manufacturing remain challenged. Also reiterated expectations for inflation to return to Fed’s 2% target, though conceded it will take a bit longer than planned. Said Fed still on track for gradual rate hikes. Asked about a hike in March, she said that while Fed does not want to “shock” markets, policy should also not reflect market expectations that are likely to shift.

If this is the attitude of the FOMC as a whole, this is going to get really interesting. If the Fed is seen as likely to raise rates in March then the US Dollar is only going to continue to get stronger.

They shouldn't have raised in the first place. I wonder how long it will take for them to be back at zero.

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Fed’s Mester downplays market volatility:
  • Cleveland President Mester (FOMC voter) noted recent market volatility poses some risks, but does not change her outlook for continued US economic growth and labor market improvement. Argued solid jobs and income growth suggest economic fundamentals remain intact and said she expects US economy to work through latest episode of market turbulence and soft patch, even as energy and manufacturing remain challenged. Also reiterated expectations for inflation to return to Fed’s 2% target, though conceded it will take a bit longer than planned. Said Fed still on track for gradual rate hikes. Asked about a hike in March, she said that while Fed does not want to “shock” markets, policy should also not reflect market expectations that are likely to shift.

If this is the attitude of the FOMC as a whole, this is going to get really interesting. If the Fed is seen as likely to raise rates in March then the US Dollar is only going to continue to get stronger.

They shouldn't have raised in the first place. I wonder how long it will take for them to be back at zero.

I don't disagree, but you can probably just add that to a long list of things the Fed shouldn't have done.

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Feds Mester downplays market volatility:

  • Cleveland President Mester (FOMC voter) noted recent market volatility poses some risks, but does not change her outlook for continued US economic growth and labor market improvement. Argued solid jobs and income growth suggest economic fundamentals remain intact and said she expects US economy to work through latest episode of market turbulence and soft patch, even as energy and manufacturing remain challenged. Also reiterated expectations for inflation to return to Feds 2% target, though conceded it will take a bit longer than planned. Said Fed still on track for gradual rate hikes. Asked about a hike in March, she said that while Fed does not want to shock markets, policy should also not reflect market expectations that are likely to shift.

If this is the attitude of the FOMC as a whole, this is going to get really interesting. If the Fed is seen as likely to raise rates in March then the US Dollar is only going to continue to get stronger.

They shouldn't have raised in the first place. I wonder how long it will take for them to be back at zero.

i agree and didn't know why until I realized they may have raised to have room to go back down once the recession officially hits.
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Feds Mester downplays market volatility:

  • Cleveland President Mester (FOMC voter) noted recent market volatility poses some risks, but does not change her outlook for continued US economic growth and labor market improvement. Argued solid jobs and income growth suggest economic fundamentals remain intact and said she expects US economy to work through latest episode of market turbulence and soft patch, even as energy and manufacturing remain challenged. Also reiterated expectations for inflation to return to Feds 2% target, though conceded it will take a bit longer than planned. Said Fed still on track for gradual rate hikes. Asked about a hike in March, she said that while Fed does not want to shock markets, policy should also not reflect market expectations that are likely to shift.

If this is the attitude of the FOMC as a whole, this is going to get really interesting. If the Fed is seen as likely to raise rates in March then the US Dollar is only going to continue to get stronger.

They shouldn't have raised in the first place. I wonder how long it will take for them to be back at zero.

i agree and didn't know why until I realized they may have raised to have room to go back down once the recession officially hits.

25 basis points?

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This death spiral hasn't affected real estate prices. Is that because real estate is a safe and tangible haven? Or because people need a place to live?

To be clear, the "death spiral" part is really more about the global economy and the financial contagion that seems to be taking hold. Emerging markets (including China) are the true Ground Zero.

If it does turn nasty, I'd expect the real estate market to be somewhat affected, but since the likely outcome will be continued very low interest rates, I'd say Single Family RE has a chance to be one of the best performing asset classes.

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One of these has to be right at some point.

Redmond = Lhucks?

I don't always post about doom & gloom, but when I do, the chickens come home to ####### roost.

The Original Chickens Coming Home to Roost Thread

Jesus that's one creepy thread.

Post from FavreCo on 7/26/2007:

The housing debacle WILL put the US into recession. Guaranteed. Watch and learn.

He is/was one weird ####er, but he got that part right.

He is also the guy who mocked another FBG for buying more Facebook stock after it tanked to $20 and later $15 shortly after the IPO.

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Telling that the economy is so strong that a 25 basis point hike is such a precipitous moment in the world economy. The Fed should have raised when the taper tantrum happened. The paradox is valuations aren't totally out of whack in the stock market, elevetated yes, but not in bubble territory.

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Telling that the economy is so strong that a 25 basis point hike is such a precipitous moment in the world economy. The Fed should have raised when the taper tantrum happened. The paradox is valuations aren't totally out of whack in the stock market, elevetated yes, but not in bubble territory.

Valuations appear ridiculously inflated IMO. Apple/Google are priced fine, a lot others are high, and just about any tech & bio company is insane.

IDK how someone can say valuations aren't out of whack. Revenue is down 3 straight quarters, but last I checked the S&P P/E was 18 or 19 - when revenue is continuously down, P/E needs to be towards the lower teens, not the higher end.

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You guys are going to scare some people into going completely to cash with this thread. I'd venture to say the odds of a recession in the next year is 15-20%. 2% growth is still growth. Stocks should outperform bonds and cash over the next year IMO.

Have you heard of sovereign wealth funds? Do you know how much money they have invested in the US market and other major markets?

Do you know where their money comes from?

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For those of us under 40, I assume this is not mega significant. Just keep investing and 401k-ing as per usual?

I am, although I might throw some dollars at commodities while they are low (small % of what I own now, only through mixes of other index funds).

Under 40 for 5 more months. :suds:

Right there with you, almost to the day :banned:
:unsure:

6 months 2 days here...

You guys like to party?

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For those of us under 40, I assume this is not mega significant. Just keep investing and 401k-ing as per usual?

Sure, you just have to remain aware that economic death spirals that totally wipe you out will happen once or twice a lifetime.

When was the last one?

They happen every 40 years on average for countries with fiat money. We're there right now, August 15 1971 is the birthday of our funny money. The issuer of the funny money is never able to control themselves, that's how you end up with 20 trillion in public debt and 150 trillion in unfunded liabilities so fast.

I stopped at the local coin dealer yesterday for the first time in about 4 years ... he still remembered me ... he said back in 2002 people were buying gold and silver as a long term investment (that worked out very well) but today they are buying it as a hedge against the collapse of the dollar. There is some huge new money moving into gold and silver at his shop, not the usual little nibblers like me.

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Redmond, is it true you've called 9 of the last 3 recessions?

That's a funny line. Of course you didn't think it up and it really doesn't apply to me, but nice work nonetheless.

I can recall starting a thread like this once or maye twice before. One of them preceeded the biggest economic and financial melt-down since 1929. The other one, if I remember correctly, was at the outset of the Europen debt crisis.

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Redmond, is it true you've called 9 of the last 3 recessions?

That's a funny line. Of course you didn't think it up and it really doesn't apply to me, but nice work nonetheless.

I can recall starting a thread like this once or maye twice before. One of them preceeded the biggest economic and financial melt-down since 1929. The other one, if I remember correctly, was at the outset of the Europen debt crisis.

So serious, damn.

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Redmond, is it true you've called 9 of the last 3 recessions?

That's a funny line. Of course you didn't think it up and it really doesn't apply to me, but nice work nonetheless.

I can recall starting a thread like this once or maye twice before. One of them preceeded the biggest economic and financial melt-down since 1929. The other one, if I remember correctly, was at the outset of the Europen debt crisis.

So serious, damn.

Dude, it's an Economic Death Spiral.

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Redmond, is it true you've called 9 of the last 3 recessions?

That's a funny line. Of course you didn't think it up and it really doesn't apply to me, but nice work nonetheless.

I can recall starting a thread like this once or maye twice before. One of them preceeded the biggest economic and financial melt-down since 1929. The other one, if I remember correctly, was at the outset of the Europen debt crisis.

So serious, damn.

Dude, it's an Economic Death Spiral.

Terrible death metal band name

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Redmond, is it true you've called 9 of the last 3 recessions?

That's a funny line. Of course you didn't think it up and it really doesn't apply to me, but nice work nonetheless.

I can recall starting a thread like this once or maye twice before. One of them preceeded the biggest economic and financial melt-down since 1929. The other one, if I remember correctly, was at the outset of the Europen debt crisis.

So serious, damn.

Dude, it's an Economic Death Spiral.

Terrible death metal band name

Sounds more like a name for the new Metallica album.

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Redmond, is it true you've called 9 of the last 3 recessions?

That's a funny line. Of course you didn't think it up and it really doesn't apply to me, but nice work nonetheless.

I can recall starting a thread like this once or maye twice before. One of them preceeded the biggest economic and financial melt-down since 1929. The other one, if I remember correctly, was at the outset of the Europen debt crisis.

So serious, damn.

Dude, it's an Economic Death Spiral.

Terrible death metal band name

Sounds more like a name for the new Metallica album.

I was thinking the daily pasta special at Olive Garden.

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One of these has to be right at some point.

Redmond = Lhucks?

I don't always post about doom & gloom, but when I do, the chickens come home to ####### roost.

The Original Chickens Coming Home to Roost Thread

Jesus that's one creepy thread.

Post from FavreCo on 7/26/2007:

The housing debacle WILL put the US into recession. Guaranteed. Watch and learn.

He is/was one weird ####er, but he got that part right.

He is also the guy who mocked another FBG for buying more Facebook stock after it tanked to $20 and later $15 shortly after the IPO.

I didn't say he was always right, or even often right. He was just right about the housing crisis. Insert broken clock reference here.

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Redmond, is it true you've called 9 of the last 3 recessions?

That's a funny line. Of course you didn't think it up and it really doesn't apply to me, but nice work nonetheless.

I can recall starting a thread like this once or maye twice before. One of them preceeded the biggest economic and financial melt-down since 1929. The other one, if I remember correctly, was at the outset of the Europen debt crisis.

So serious, damn.

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One of these has to be right at some point.

Redmond = Lhucks?

I don't always post about doom & gloom, but when I do, the chickens come home to ####### roost.

The Original Chickens Coming Home to Roost Thread

Jesus that's one creepy thread.

Post from FavreCo on 7/26/2007:

The housing debacle WILL put the US into recession. Guaranteed. Watch and learn.

He is/was one weird ####er, but he got that part right.

He is also the guy who mocked another FBG for buying more Facebook stock after it tanked to $20 and later $15 shortly after the IPO.

I didn't say he was always right, or even often right. He was just right about the housing crisis. Insert broken clock reference here.

When there is a bubble, anyone would be right to say it will pop eventually.
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You guys are going to scare some people into going completely to cash with this thread. I'd venture to say the odds of a recession in the next year is 15-20%. 2% growth is still growth. Stocks should outperform bonds and cash over the next year IMO.

Actually, if Chicken Little is right about the #### hitting the fan then you'll see some flight to safety moving to tangible assets. We all saw what happened in Greece, where they have cash control to limit withdrawals to 420 a week. It finally dawned on people that the money in bank accounts are legally owned by banks and not depositors.

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S&P futures lower:
  • S&P futures down 1.3%. Asian markets mixed overnight. China closed for holiday. European markets under pressure. Treasuries a bit firmer across the curve. Dollar mixed. Outperforming euro and sterling, but lagging on yen cross. Gold up 1.7%. Oil weaker with both WTI and Brent off more than 2%.
  • Seems to be some spillover from last week’s pullback, when a lot of damage was done on Friday despite a fairly well-received January employment report. While market looking for slower Fed tightening cycle, policy divergence theme not going away and keeping concerns about negative feedback loops in play.
Policy divergence theme not going away:
  • Despite traction behind expectations for a slower Fed tightening cycle, policy divergence theme not going away. This dynamic expected to keep focus on negative feedback loops, many of which have been tangled up with a stronger dollar. Fed in wait-and-see mode when it comes spillover effects from global market volatility. In addition, growth slowdown narrative has not been one-way, as evidenced by fairly well-received January employment report despite softer increase in nonfarm payrolls. Other big issue is elevated expectations for foreign central banks to get more aggressive. Just last week, ECB’s Draghi said risk of acting too late on inflation greater than acting too early. BoJ’s Kuroda said no limits to measures for further easing.
Saudis and Venezuelans meet, but no agreement on cutting production:
  • Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi met with his Venezuelan counterpart, Eulogio del Pino, on Sunday. Naimi said meeting was “successful” with a “positive atmosphere”. Del Pino said on his official Twitter page that meeting was productive and revolved around cooperating to “stabilize the international oil market”. However, neither mentioned any agreement to cut output. Also no discussion of Venezuela’s repeated requests for an emergency OPEC meeting. While there have been myriad headlines in recent weeks about potential for coordinated production cuts, Saudi Arabia has not given any indications that is ready to deviate from a market share strategy that it has argued is mandated by a structurally imbalanced market partly due to presence of US shale.
Recession could come without typical yield curve warning:
  • Big pickup in recession talk as of late, particularly with all the focus on negative feedback loops. Reuters recently noted that number of companies whose executives have mentioned recession concerns on conference calls is up 33% y/y so far in 2016, the first increase since 2009. WSJ also discussed how a recession could arrive without a typical warning: an inverted yield curve. Pointed out that while every one of the past seven US recessions has been preceded by yield curve inversion, that may not happen this time around given already ultralow yields on short-term bonds. Noted there could be some lessons here from Japan, as during each of its last four recessions, the yield curve did not invert.

These are the major news items supporting the "death spiral" thesis today.

There was relatively little on the other side, except for Goldman saying a recession in the US is still unlikely, Barrons predicting that oil strengthens in the back half of the year and Deutche Bank out with positive comments on the banking sector.

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Feds Mester downplays market volatility:

  • Cleveland President Mester (FOMC voter) noted recent market volatility poses some risks, but does not change her outlook for continued US economic growth and labor market improvement. Argued solid jobs and income growth suggest economic fundamentals remain intact and said she expects US economy to work through latest episode of market turbulence and soft patch, even as energy and manufacturing remain challenged. Also reiterated expectations for inflation to return to Feds 2% target, though conceded it will take a bit longer than planned. Said Fed still on track for gradual rate hikes. Asked about a hike in March, she said that while Fed does not want to shock markets, policy should also not reflect market expectations that are likely to shift.

If this is the attitude of the FOMC as a whole, this is going to get really interesting. If the Fed is seen as likely to raise rates in March then the US Dollar is only going to continue to get stronger.

They shouldn't have raised in the first place. I wonder how long it will take for them to be back at zero.

i agree and didn't know why until I realized they may have raised to have room to go back down once the recession officially hits.

25 basis points?

well they are certainly not done/
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Telling that the economy is so strong that a 25 basis point hike is such a precipitous moment in the world economy. The Fed should have raised when the taper tantrum happened. The paradox is valuations aren't totally out of whack in the stock market, elevetated yes, but not in bubble territory.

i don't necessarily agree...lots of "momentum stocks" totally out of line. Bigger bubble is private equity companies.
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Feds Mester downplays market volatility:

  • Cleveland President Mester (FOMC voter) noted recent market volatility poses some risks, but does not change her outlook for continued US economic growth and labor market improvement. Argued solid jobs and income growth suggest economic fundamentals remain intact and said she expects US economy to work through latest episode of market turbulence and soft patch, even as energy and manufacturing remain challenged. Also reiterated expectations for inflation to return to Feds 2% target, though conceded it will take a bit longer than planned. Said Fed still on track for gradual rate hikes. Asked about a hike in March, she said that while Fed does not want to shock markets, policy should also not reflect market expectations that are likely to shift.

If this is the attitude of the FOMC as a whole, this is going to get really interesting. If the Fed is seen as likely to raise rates in March then the US Dollar is only going to continue to get stronger.

They shouldn't have raised in the first place. I wonder how long it will take for them to be back at zero.

i agree and didn't know why until I realized they may have raised to have room to go back down once the recession officially hits.

25 basis points?

well they are certainly not done/

I expect they may have to reverse course. But I don't know if I feel comfortable forecasting that the FOMC would move the Fed Funds rate into negative territory.

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One of these has to be right at some point.

Redmond = Lhucks?

I don't always post about doom & gloom, but when I do, the chickens come home to ####### roost.

The Original Chickens Coming Home to Roost Thread

Jesus that's one creepy thread.

Post from FavreCo on 7/26/2007:

The housing debacle WILL put the US into recession. Guaranteed. Watch and learn.

He is/was one weird ####er, but he got that part right.

He is also the guy who mocked another FBG for buying more Facebook stock after it tanked to $20 and later $15 shortly after the IPO.

I underestimated the idiocy of the average humanoid. I had no idea such a lame idea could suck in people and last this long.

It wasn't too hard to figure out that the housing bubble was going to be an epic disaster. Actually it was probably the easiest call in the history of the markets. When people incapable of paying off a mortgage are getting loans for 125% of the home's value AND it's already over inflated by as much as 100%, ya had to know the #### was going to hit the fan.

That thread is awesome! Line up the posts with this chart and laugh. S&P Max chart

General Malaise was really nailing it in that thread as others were flowing in saying the buy, buy, buy on dead cat bounces.

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Feds Mester downplays market volatility:

  • Cleveland President Mester (FOMC voter) noted recent market volatility poses some risks, but does not change her outlook for continued US economic growth and labor market improvement. Argued solid jobs and income growth suggest economic fundamentals remain intact and said she expects US economy to work through latest episode of market turbulence and soft patch, even as energy and manufacturing remain challenged. Also reiterated expectations for inflation to return to Feds 2% target, though conceded it will take a bit longer than planned. Said Fed still on track for gradual rate hikes. Asked about a hike in March, she said that while Fed does not want to shock markets, policy should also not reflect market expectations that are likely to shift.

If this is the attitude of the FOMC as a whole, this is going to get really interesting. If the Fed is seen as likely to raise rates in March then the US Dollar is only going to continue to get stronger.

They shouldn't have raised in the first place. I wonder how long it will take for them to be back at zero.

i agree and didn't know why until I realized they may have raised to have room to go back down once the recession officially hits.

25 basis points?

well they are certainly not done/

I expect they may have to reverse course. But I don't know if I feel comfortable forecasting that the FOMC would move the Fed Funds rate into negative territory.

I think they'll be forced to cut this year. Unfortunately, as long as they are focused on a 2% inflation growth ceiling, there really is not much room to maneuver.

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They would be wise to keep their pieholes shut. Raising rates is out of the question. Talking about it only causes more damage. Same with even considering reversing course & lowering rates. That will cause selling because it will make people think they are afraid of a recession. Hell, we could already be in one. Best they can do is say they are keeping rates as they are.

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One of these has to be right at some point.

Redmond = Lhucks?

I don't always post about doom & gloom, but when I do, the chickens come home to ####### roost.

The Original Chickens Coming Home to Roost Thread

Jesus that's one creepy thread.

Post from FavreCo on 7/26/2007:

The housing debacle WILL put the US into recession. Guaranteed. Watch and learn.

He is/was one weird ####er, but he got that part right.

He is also the guy who mocked another FBG for buying more Facebook stock after it tanked to $20 and later $15 shortly after the IPO.

I underestimated the idiocy of the average humanoid. I had no idea such a lame idea could suck in people and last this long.

It wasn't too hard to figure out that the housing bubble was going to be an epic disaster. Actually it was probably the easiest call in the history of the markets. When people incapable of paying off a mortgage are getting loans for 125% of the home's value AND it's already over inflated by as much as 100%, ya had to know the #### was going to hit the fan.

That thread is awesome! Line up the posts with this chart and laugh. S&P Max chart

General Malaise was really nailing it in that thread as others were flowing in saying the buy, buy, buy on dead cat bounces.

It wasn't hard to figure out, no. But it was a hard trade to make work. Because mark-to-market losses were really painful, particularly in the early going.

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Agree or disagree...

We never recovered from 2007-2009? Jobs grew, home prices appreciated, but a lot of smoke and mirrors in place thanks to QE and ZIRP.

Yes/no/maybe?

Agree with the first part.

But QE and ZIRP got us to where we are today. The real economy needed inflation and wage growth to break out of the downdraft entirely -- but the political system precludes the first, and the labor market is rigged against the second.

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I am in the chickens are not coming home to roost. Maybe a nap, but I'm not even sure of that.

The roosting is already occuring just about everywhere except the US equity market. In the US broad market indexes it has only been a paper cut so far.

Maybe US stocks are a special little snowflake that will mostly be spared, but I don't know if betting that way is wise.

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I am in the chickens are not coming home to roost. Maybe a nap, but I'm not even sure of that.

The roosting is already occuring just about everywhere except the US equity market. In the US broad market indexes it has only been a paper cut so far.

Maybe US stocks are a special little snowflake that will mostly be spared, but I don't know if betting that way is wise.

Well, I believe, for a number of reasons that the US economy is in fact a special little snowflake.

I'm also not saying there wont be additional corrections or that a recession isn't possible, I'm saying we won't repeat the Great Recession of 2007-2009 when chickens came home to roost.

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I am in the chickens are not coming home to roost. Maybe a nap, but I'm not even sure of that.

The roosting is already occuring just about everywhere except the US equity market. In the US broad market indexes it has only been a paper cut so far.

Maybe US stocks are a special little snowflake that will mostly be spared, but I don't know if betting that way is wise.

Well, I believe, for a number of reasons that the US economy is in fact a special little snowflake.

I'm also not saying there wont be additional corrections or that a recession isn't possible, I'm saying we won't repeat the Great Recession of 2007-2009 when chickens came home to roost.

Well, I wouldn't say it is going out on a limb to say this may not be as bad as things got in 2008/09.

I don't really expect it to be either. But that was also the worst period for the financial markets and world economy in 80 years. Plenty of roosting can happen without it being quite that bad.

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You guys are going to scare some people into going completely to cash with this thread. I'd venture to say the odds of a recession in the next year is 15-20%. 2% growth is still growth. Stocks should outperform bonds and cash over the next year IMO.

I remember reading about how a "double dip" was certain years ago. Yet the market kept going up. The conditions have been ripe for a while, since we borrowed so much to "stimulate" the economy. The problem is when? It's like we all know it's inevitable, but when.

I remember reading about deflation as well. Could this be what is happening?

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Agree or disagree...

We never recovered from 2007-2009? Jobs grew, home prices appreciated, but a lot of smoke and mirrors in place thanks to QE and ZIRP.

Yes/no/maybe?

I think you are onto something. How many of the "new jobs" are part time? Is underemployment still a problem? What about the people not in the workforce that don't count as unemployed?

I think there have been smoke & mirrors going in for a while.

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Redmond, is it true you've called 9 of the last 3 recessions?

That's a funny line. Of course you didn't think it up and it really doesn't apply to me, but nice work nonetheless.

I can recall starting a thread like this once or maye twice before. One of them preceeded the biggest economic and financial melt-down since 1929. The other one, if I remember correctly, was at the outset of the Europen debt crisis.

So serious, damn.

Dude, it's an Economic Death Spiral.

Terrible death metal band name

It's no Sonic Death Monkey.

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I am in the chickens are not coming home to roost. Maybe a nap, but I'm not even sure of that.

The roosting is already occuring just about everywhere except the US equity market. In the US broad market indexes it has only been a paper cut so far.

Maybe US stocks are a special little snowflake that will mostly be spared, but I don't know if betting that way is wise.

Well, I believe, for a number of reasons that the US economy is in fact a special little snowflake.

I'm also not saying there wont be additional corrections or that a recession isn't possible, I'm saying we won't repeat the Great Recession of 2007-2009 when chickens came home to roost.

Well, I wouldn't say it is going out on a limb to say this may not be as bad as things got in 2008/09.

I don't really expect it to be either. But that was also the worst period for the financial markets and world economy in 80 years. Plenty of roosting can happen without it being quite that bad.

well I guess it would be useful to define Economic Death Spiral.

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