Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
Economic Death Spiral? Potential :roost:ing ahead (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter RedmondLonghorn
- Start date
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Only in these states.
http://www.therealestatemedia.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/death-spiral-states.jpg
The rest of you may continue as you have been continuing.
http://www.therealestatemedia.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/death-spiral-states.jpg
The rest of you may continue as you have been continuing.
bagger
Footballguy
i sold all of my non retirement stocks a year ago. Ejected out of biggest holdings of aapl and dis and am hoarding cash to buy back in. All of my retirement holdings I am just leaving as is, although moved half into more defensive funds that exceed market in times of decline.
They shouldn't have raised in the first place. I wonder how long it will take for them to be back at zero.
RedmondLonghorn
Footballguy
I don't disagree, but you can probably just add that to a long list of things the Fed shouldn't have done.
bagger
Footballguy
i agree and didn't know why until I realized they may have raised to have room to go back down once the recession officially hits.
RedmondLonghorn
Footballguy
RedmondLonghorn
Footballguy
To be clear, the "death spiral" part is really more about the global economy and the financial contagion that seems to be taking hold. Emerging markets (including China) are the true Ground Zero.
If it does turn nasty, I'd expect the real estate market to be somewhat affected, but since the likely outcome will be continued very low interest rates, I'd say Single Family RE has a chance to be one of the best performing asset classes.
Last edited by a moderator:
hxperson
Footballguy
He is also the guy who mocked another FBG for buying more Facebook stock after it tanked to $20 and later $15 shortly after the IPO.
baymen
Footballguy
Telling that the economy is so strong that a 25 basis point hike is such a precipitous moment in the world economy. The Fed should have raised when the taper tantrum happened. The paradox is valuations aren't totally out of whack in the stock market, elevetated yes, but not in bubble territory.
Don't Noonan
Footballguy
You guys are going to scare some people into going completely to cash with this thread. I'd venture to say the odds of a recession in the next year is 15-20%. 2% growth is still growth. Stocks should outperform bonds and cash over the next year IMO.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Valuations appear ridiculously inflated IMO. Apple/Google are priced fine, a lot others are high, and just about any tech & bio company is insane.
IDK how someone can say valuations aren't out of whack. Revenue is down 3 straight quarters, but last I checked the S&P P/E was 18 or 19 - when revenue is continuously down, P/E needs to be towards the lower teens, not the higher end.
RedmondLonghorn
Footballguy
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
[icon]
Insoxicated
Right there with you, almost to the dayI am, although I might throw some dollars at commodities while they are low (small % of what I own now, only through mixes of other index funds).
Under 40 for 5 more months.
6 months 2 days here...You guys like to party?
Last edited by a moderator:
spreagle
Footballguy
They happen every 40 years on average for countries with fiat money. We're there right now, August 15 1971 is the birthday of our funny money. The issuer of the funny money is never able to control themselves, that's how you end up with 20 trillion in public debt and 150 trillion in unfunded liabilities so fast.
I stopped at the local coin dealer yesterday for the first time in about 4 years ... he still remembered me ... he said back in 2002 people were buying gold and silver as a long term investment (that worked out very well) but today they are buying it as a hedge against the collapse of the dollar. There is some huge new money moving into gold and silver at his shop, not the usual little nibblers like me.
Fennis
Footballguy
RedmondLonghorn
Footballguy
That's a funny line. Of course you didn't think it up and it really doesn't apply to me, but nice work nonetheless.
I can recall starting a thread like this once or maye twice before. One of them preceeded the biggest economic and financial melt-down since 1929. The other one, if I remember correctly, was at the outset of the Europen debt crisis.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Fennis
Footballguy
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Fennis
Footballguy
RedmondLonghorn
Footballguy
I didn't say he was always right, or even often right. He was just right about the housing crisis. Insert broken clock reference here.
RedmondLonghorn
Footballguy
Rohn Jambo
Footballguy
When there is a bubble, anyone would be right to say it will pop eventually.
Rohn Jambo
Footballguy
Actually, if Chicken Little is right about the #### hitting the fan then you'll see some flight to safety moving to tangible assets. We all saw what happened in Greece, where they have cash control to limit withdrawals to 420 a week. It finally dawned on people that the money in bank accounts are legally owned by banks and not depositors.Don said:
Last edited by a moderator:
RedmondLonghorn
Footballguy
These are the major news items supporting the "death spiral" thesis today.
There was relatively little on the other side, except for Goldman saying a recession in the US is still unlikely, Barrons predicting that oil strengthens in the back half of the year and Deutche Bank out with positive comments on the banking sector.
bagger
Footballguy
well they are certainly not done/
bagger
Footballguy
i don't necessarily agree...lots of "momentum stocks" totally out of line. Bigger bubble is private equity companies.
RedmondLonghorn
Footballguy
I expect they may have to reverse course. But I don't know if I feel comfortable forecasting that the FOMC would move the Fed Funds rate into negative territory.
lod01
Footballguy
I underestimated the idiocy of the average humanoid. I had no idea such a lame idea could suck in people and last this long.
It wasn't too hard to figure out that the housing bubble was going to be an epic disaster. Actually it was probably the easiest call in the history of the markets. When people incapable of paying off a mortgage are getting loans for 125% of the home's value AND it's already over inflated by as much as 100%, ya had to know the #### was going to hit the fan.
That thread is awesome! Line up the posts with this chart and laugh. S&P Max chart
General Malaise was really nailing it in that thread as others were flowing in saying the buy, buy, buy on dead cat bounces.
Last edited by a moderator:
lod01
Footballguy
They would be wise to keep their pieholes shut. Raising rates is out of the question. Talking about it only causes more damage. Same with even considering reversing course & lowering rates. That will cause selling because it will make people think they are afraid of a recession. Hell, we could already be in one. Best they can do is say they are keeping rates as they are.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
IDK what cutting 25 basis points will do. Probably just cause panic. They're backed into a corner.
Could be entering a Japan like fate in regards to rates.
Could be entering a Japan like fate in regards to rates.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Should have gone negative and goosed inflation when they had the chance -- but politics won out over policy and they're probably stuck now.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Agree or disagree...
We never recovered from 2007-2009? Jobs grew, home prices appreciated, but a lot of smoke and mirrors in place thanks to QE and ZIRP.
Yes/no/maybe?
We never recovered from 2007-2009? Jobs grew, home prices appreciated, but a lot of smoke and mirrors in place thanks to QE and ZIRP.
Yes/no/maybe?
RedmondLonghorn
Footballguy
It wasn't hard to figure out, no. But it was a hard trade to make work. Because mark-to-market losses were really painful, particularly in the early going.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Agree with the first part.
But QE and ZIRP got us to where we are today. The real economy needed inflation and wage growth to break out of the downdraft entirely -- but the political system precludes the first, and the labor market is rigged against the second.
Last edited by a moderator:
RedmondLonghorn
Footballguy
The roosting is already occuring just about everywhere except the US equity market. In the US broad market indexes it has only been a paper cut so far.
Maybe US stocks are a special little snowflake that will mostly be spared, but I don't know if betting that way is wise.
Fennis
Footballguy
Well, I believe, for a number of reasons that the US economy is in fact a special little snowflake.
I'm also not saying there wont be additional corrections or that a recession isn't possible, I'm saying we won't repeat the Great Recession of 2007-2009 when chickens came home to roost.
RedmondLonghorn
Footballguy
Well, I wouldn't say it is going out on a limb to say this may not be as bad as things got in 2008/09.
I don't really expect it to be either. But that was also the worst period for the financial markets and world economy in 80 years. Plenty of roosting can happen without it being quite that bad.
Quez
Footballguy
I remember reading about how a "double dip" was certain years ago. Yet the market kept going up. The conditions have been ripe for a while, since we borrowed so much to "stimulate" the economy. The problem is when? It's like we all know it's inevitable, but when.
I remember reading about deflation as well. Could this be what is happening?
Quez
Footballguy
I think you are onto something. How many of the "new jobs" are part time? Is underemployment still a problem? What about the people not in the workforce that don't count as unemployed?
I think there have been smoke & mirrors going in for a while.
