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Economic Death Spiral? Potential :roost:ing ahead


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1 minute ago, Slapdash said:

You've been rooting for the "inevitable" collapse for years.  Forgive me for not spending the time on it again.

They've had the same policies in effect for almost a decade, might be time for a change :shrug: They're trying to give the illusion that we're in a tightening cycle, but that is a blatant lie. The whole system throws a tantrum in response to the possibility of 4 hikes (25 basis point per hike, which by any measure is very nominal) and the Fed caves. Now they're predicting two hikes this year, in reality, I'd wager on one hike of 25 basis points. The Fed is a complete joke, the markets are enjoying euphoria on "global uncertainty" (this is why Yellen won't hike in her own words), this is what is being embraced, lol. Nothing to see here.

 

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10 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

They've had the same policies in effect for almost a decade, might be time for a change :shrug: They're trying to give the illusion that we're in a tightening cycle, but that is a blatant lie. The whole system throws a tantrum in response to the possibility of 4 hikes (25 basis point per hike, which by any measure is very nominal) and the Fed caves. Now they're predicting two hikes this year, in reality, I'd wager on one hike of 25 basis points. The Fed is a complete joke, the markets are enjoying euphoria on "global uncertainty" (this is why Yellen won't hike in her own words), this is what is being embraced, lol. Nothing to see here.

 

Don't fight the Fed!

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We started a tightening cycle almost a year ago.   The level of rates doesn't show whether money is tight or loose, only their spread to the natural rate (which has likely been negative for some time).  Saying " They're trying to give the illusion that we're in a tightening cycle, but that is a blatant lie " shows you don't really understand these terms.  

But it was only a couple years ago that you thought any rate move would cause an extreme sell-off, so I guess that is progress.

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2 minutes ago, Slapdash said:

 

But it was only a couple years ago that you thought any rate move would cause an extreme sell-off, so I guess that is progress.

What would you call January/Feb? 

 

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On Sunday, February 07, 2016 at 9:07 PM, Don't Noonan said:

You guys are going to scare some people into going completely to cash with this thread. I'd venture to say the odds of a recession in the next year is 15-20%. 2% growth is still growth. Stocks should outperform bonds and cash over the next year IMO.

Dow closed at 16204 on February 5th and hit a low of 15660 on February 11th.  I'm not overly optimistic about the stock market right now but the pessimism in this thread near the bottom was a great buying signal.

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  • 8 months later...
6 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

@RedmondLonghorn

Nailed it!

The Dow Jones is only up 19% in the last 10 months since you started this thread, nice call here. What is 3,000 points amongst friends.

:lmao:

Your first post in this thread....the fifth one overall....basically agreed with him.

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On 2/5/2016 at 3:50 PM, fantasycurse42 said:

We're nearing the end of a bull cycle IMO - I wouldn't call it a death spiral, but I think there is some pain to be felt.

Edit: Unless the government intervenes and just kicks it further down the road.

 

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Just now, eoMMan said:

I wouldn't call it a death spiral

:shrug:

Furthermore, if you check the stock thread, I was long equities until the 18's range, so I damn sure didn't miss much of this. If you're in the mood to compare portfolios though, go have a read through the stock thread, I post most of what I'm getting into. 

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14 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

:shrug:

Furthermore, if you check the stock thread, I was long equities until the 18's range, so I damn sure didn't miss much of this. If you're in the mood to compare portfolios though, go have a read through the stock thread, I post most of what I'm getting into. 

"But I think some pain will be felt"

 

A lot of people were correct in being cautious when Red posted this thread. Just don't see why you would bump it and try to make him look dumb.

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Just now, eoMMan said:

"But I think some pain will be felt"

 

A lot of people were correct in being cautious when Red posted this thread. Just don't see why you would bump it and try to make him look dumb.

The indexes swing 10% up/down every year, and that is simply an average, there is always pain ahead.

To answer your question, bc he likes to follow me around and instigate, meanwhile the DJIA is up almost 20% in 10 months since this thread, amazing call.

Why do you feel the need to get involved? 

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4 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

The indexes swing 10% up/down every year, and that is simply an average, there is always pain ahead.

To answer your question, bc he likes to follow me around and instigate, meanwhile the DJIA is up almost 20% in 10 months since this thread, amazing call.

Why do you feel the need to get involved? 

Didn't see there was such iBeef there....okay, carry on. 

You two can talk it out.

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1 minute ago, eoMMan said:

Didn't see there was such iBeef there....okay, carry on. 

You two can talk it out.

I'm not an instigator, but when someone wants to bust my balls for no reason - I'll highlight the LHUCKsian call they made earlier in the year. 

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On Saturday, February 06, 2016 at 9:07 PM, Don't Noonan said:

You guys are going to scare some people into going completely to cash with this thread. I'd venture to say the odds of a recession in the next year is 15-20%. 2% growth is still growth. Stocks should outperform bonds and cash over the next year IMO.

Hope you guys didn't panic and go to cash 

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Just now, bagger said:

This bump sort of reminds me of someone laughing at bears in the housing market in 2005. I have a feeling Redmond is going to have the last laugh here.

Very possible the market tumbles when Trump starts a war with China.

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@RedmondLonghorn

Thought visuals would actually be in order here, turns out your call to date after 10 months was worse than LHUCKS, congrats :thumbup: Thought that was almost impossible since he made his call right before one of the best S&P years of my existence.

In this chart, percentage lost on a monthly basis is shown, you really came out of the gate hard, 5% in one month, excellent work.

This just tracks the DJIA as your call got worse and worse, more solid work, I like the percentage visual above better though.

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2 hours ago, eoMMan said:

:lmao:

Your first post in this thread....the fifth one overall....basically agreed with him.

Sweet catch. I recall that also. Only a really insecure cabron pulls something out like this ten months later and tries to use it as a "gotcha".

The early part of this year was a very scary time. The confluence of extremely weak oil prices and the strong US dollar had the potential to cause massive havoc on the Emerging Markets and to spill over to those that hold EM debt. 

It didn't happen. That's good news.

We suffered some pain in our portfolio when there was a massive short-covering rally in late February, early March. Then we got straightened out pretty nicely. If there had been active discussion on this thread during that time, I certainly would have provided an update. We did have an extremely crap six weeks or so.

 

 

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1 minute ago, RedmondLonghorn said:

Sweet catch. I recall that also. Only a really insecure cabron pulls something out like this ten months later and tries to use it as a "gotcha".

 

 

Take a look at the graph. I guess whenever the market dips, the roosting is coming.

You don't know ####.

Well, except how to be an awesome message board poster. 

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3 minutes ago, RedmondLonghorn said:

The early part of this year was a very scary time. The confluence of extremely weak oil prices and the strong US dollar had the potential to cause massive havoc on the Emerging Markets and to spill over to those that hold EM debt. 

Oil prices are still soft, not like Feb, but nonetheless roughly $50.

Oh, that strong dollar, it is even stronger, some solid outs dude.

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Interesting question, by what do you mean embarrass ourselves? If you mean dining in a majority of NYC's best restaurants without a reservation, then yes, we might be embarrassing ourselves later in the week. I'm thinking Wolfgangs, might do Porter House, TBD. 

& when your wife looks like mine, she gets a pass on cooking, the fact that she is trying means more to me than the ####ty food she puts down. 

Is this roosting you mentioned in the OP happening on every dip? If you haven't noticed a theme in the last 8 years, let me help you out - BTFD. 

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3 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

If you mean dining in a majority of NYC's best restaurants without a reservation, then yes, we might be embarrassing ourselves later in the week. I'm thinking Wolfgangs, might do Porter House, TBD. 

& when your wife looks like mine, she gets a pass on cooking, the fact that she is trying means more to me than the ####ty food she puts down. 

Wow. You're clearly very impressive. I can tell because you told us.

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8 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

Interesting question, by what do you mean embarrass ourselves? If you mean dining in a majority of NYC's best restaurants without a reservation, then yes, we might be embarrassing ourselves later in the week. I'm thinking Wolfgangs, might do Porter House, TBD.

& when your wife looks like mine, she gets a pass on cooking, the fact that she is trying means more to me than the ####ty food she puts down.

Is this roosting you mentioned in the OP happening on every dip? If you haven't noticed a theme in the last 8 years, let me help you out - BTFD.

:link:

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8 minutes ago, RedmondLonghorn said:

Wow. You're clearly very impressive. I can tell because you told us.

 

In this chart, percentage lost on a monthly basis is shown, you really came out of the gate hard, 5% in one month, excellent work.

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1 minute ago, fantasycurse42 said:

 

In this chart, percentage lost on a monthly basis is shown, you really came out of the gate hard, 5% in one month, excellent work.

NIce link. 

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48 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

Interesting question, by what do you mean embarrass ourselves? If you mean dining in a majority of NYC's best restaurants without a reservation, then yes, we might be embarrassing ourselves later in the week. I'm thinking Wolfgangs, might do Porter House, TBD. 

& when your wife looks like mine, she gets a pass on cooking, the fact that she is trying means more to me than the ####ty food she puts down. 

Is this roosting you mentioned in the OP happening on every dip? If you haven't noticed a theme in the last 8 years, let me help you out - BTFD. 

But do you tip the receptionist at the gym?

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1 hour ago, RedmondLonghorn said:

Wow. You're clearly very impressive. I can tell because you told us.

Long day, but your comments have inspired me, I'm going to eat a top notch NYC steak right now before heading home from work. 

I appreciate it :thumbup:

 

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Man, there is the hottest Japanese chick I've ever seen sitting at the end of the bar with the biggest nerd ever - good for him.

sure, my wife's cooking might suck for now, but she'll get it together. In the meantime, I'll still eat like a mother####ing king

http://i.imgur.com/jre6s4P.jpg

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  • 3 weeks later...
On 12/6/2016 at 5:19 PM, RedmondLonghorn said:

Sweet catch. I recall that also. Only a really insecure cabron pulls something out like this ten months later and tries to use it as a "gotcha".

The early part of this year was a very scary time. The confluence of extremely weak oil prices and the strong US dollar had the potential to cause massive havoc on the Emerging Markets and to spill over to those that hold EM debt. 

It didn't happen. That's good news.

We suffered some pain in our portfolio when there was a massive short-covering rally in late February, early March. Then we got straightened out pretty nicely. If there had been active discussion on this thread during that time, I certainly would have provided an update. We did have an extremely crap six weeks or so.

 

 

I gotta admit, I knew before reading the "update" that despite proclamations of the sky falling the OP would end up having a great year in the bull market. 

 

Market goes down, he wins, goes up, he wins. That's some nice hedging 

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14 hours ago, wilked said:

I gotta admit, I knew before reading the "update" that despite proclamations of the sky falling the OP would end up having a great year in the bull market. 

 

Market goes down, he wins, goes up, he wins. That's some nice hedging 

In fairness, we didn't have a good year. We were very bearish heading into the year, made a mint in the first 3 weeks, lost it all and then some over the next six weeks and then spent the remainder of the year clawing it back to something semi-respectable. And that's really the best that could be said of our year.

We got destroyed over those six weeks...

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18 minutes ago, McGarnicle said:

Went out for dinner last night with my wife and parents, had possibly the best sea bass of my life. I can't believe I forgot to photograph it. Let me see if I can find the receipt and I'll post that instead. 

Totally post the receipt.  We won't really know how ballin you are without you telling and showing us all of the time. 

 

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2 minutes ago, James Daulton said:

Totally post the receipt.  We won't really know how ballin you are without you telling and showing us all of the time. 

 

I don't know...It's Christmas. Seems cruel to take you folks to school on baby Jesus' birthday. But let me just say, if you saw my Invicta watch and gorgeous wife, you would feel really inadequate and want to kill yourself.

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1 minute ago, McGarnicle said:

I don't know...It's Christmas. Seems cruel to take you folks to school on baby Jesus' birthday. But let me just say, if you saw my Invicta watch and gorgeous wife, you would feel really inadequate and want to kill yourself.

You're right.  I appreciate the thoughtfulness. 

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