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If you are taking the Denver Broncos to win SB...state your case (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter GROOT
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Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Defense wins championships
solorca
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Ginn, philly brown, and cotchery will drop 10 passes and fumble 6 times to even out all the terrible that has not happened with them yet this year.
Old Smiley
Footballguy
Poll: I like this thread/ I like the other thread.
alright I'll play along
Denver has the only defense in the league (perhaps a healthy Seahawks?) who can match up with both NE's passing offense, and Carolina's rushing offense. Against NE, Denver was able to consistently get pressure with 3 or 4 pass rushers, thus emphasizing coverage. I see a similar, yet inverse strategy working against Carolina. Load up on defenders on the line, emphasize outside contain, and let your excellent group of defensive backs work without much help against Carolina's overmatched receivers. If Carolina falls behind and is forced to throw, they have almost zero chance of having an efficient offense.
I think Denver's offense actually matches up well against Carolina's defense, particularly in the secondary matchups. Manny Sanders will torch whoever guards him in the slot. Norman will likely shut down DT but he hasn't been good lately anyway. I will be curious if Denver decides to waste more offensive plays giving Hillman the ball instead of Anderson.
If Denver can score early and force Cam to throw more than Carolina wants I think Denver has a great shot at winning.
Denver has the only defense in the league (perhaps a healthy Seahawks?) who can match up with both NE's passing offense, and Carolina's rushing offense. Against NE, Denver was able to consistently get pressure with 3 or 4 pass rushers, thus emphasizing coverage. I see a similar, yet inverse strategy working against Carolina. Load up on defenders on the line, emphasize outside contain, and let your excellent group of defensive backs work without much help against Carolina's overmatched receivers. If Carolina falls behind and is forced to throw, they have almost zero chance of having an efficient offense.
I think Denver's offense actually matches up well against Carolina's defense, particularly in the secondary matchups. Manny Sanders will torch whoever guards him in the slot. Norman will likely shut down DT but he hasn't been good lately anyway. I will be curious if Denver decides to waste more offensive plays giving Hillman the ball instead of Anderson.
If Denver can score early and force Cam to throw more than Carolina wants I think Denver has a great shot at winning.
pantherclub
Footballguy
I cannot see any way the Broncos beat the Panthers if they dont somehow establish the run. The Panthers will feast on Mannings short game and he is a statue back there and the dline should have a field day. I think Cam neutralizes the Denver d with his legs and this turns into a bloodbath. That is of course unless the Broncos can figure out a way to pound the ball and wear out the defense to keep Cam and Co off the field.
Cold Dead Hands
Footballguy
Weirder #### has happened than a good team beating a slightly better team.
1. Carolina's weakness on defense is their secondary.
2. Denver's strength on offense is their wr's. Sanders and Thomas can't both be covered by Norman every play.
3. Manning's final game....just seems like there will be a game winning drive at the end to ride him off to the sunset.
4. Cam...you just don't know how he will perform in his first SB appearance...much bigger stage then the college national championship.
5. Denver D is no joke. Take away the run, Talib on Olsen, force Cam to throw and make mistakes.
2. Denver's strength on offense is their wr's. Sanders and Thomas can't both be covered by Norman every play.
3. Manning's final game....just seems like there will be a game winning drive at the end to ride him off to the sunset.
4. Cam...you just don't know how he will perform in his first SB appearance...much bigger stage then the college national championship.
5. Denver D is no joke. Take away the run, Talib on Olsen, force Cam to throw and make mistakes.
You mean like losing Kelvin Benjamin in pre-season and their #2 and #3 CBs (Tillman and Benwickere) before having to play Seattle and Arizona whose passing games were doing pretty well and losing Thomas Davis mid game last week and their starting DE (Allen) for the NFC Championship? As far as I can tell, the Broncos haven't had anywhere near the key injuries this season, so you seem to have the wrong team with the "not happened" tag.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
moleculo
Footballguy
Well, the Broncos had to play a few games with a back-up QB. That's kind of a big deal.Beyond that, starting LT, Ryan Clady, didn't make it to training camp. His replacement, Ty Sambrailo, was placed on IR after 3 weeks. Losing your top two left tackles - no biggie.
Then, the guy who led the team in sacks at the time, pro-bowler DeMarcus Ware, only missed 5 games right in the middle of the season, but next man up, right?
The killer was when, going to face the Steelers & Antonio Brown, both starting safeties were out. The next guy, David Brunton, broke his leg in game (but played thru), and the Broncos played most of the game with safeties who were street FA's the week prior.
Not that these injuries were key though.
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pantherclub
Footballguy
I keep seeing this but people forget that Manning cannot throw. His bread and butter is the underneath stuff and that is a strength of the Panthers. True the panthers are open to long pass plays but I would be worried if this was Manning from 4 years ago but its not. His arm, neck, foot or whatever is shot.
IIRC, Clady played 2 games in 2013 when the Broncos went to the SB, right? Maybe he doesn't have quite the impact! Sambrailo was a rookie. Also, Manning, Ward, Harris, Ware are all playing this weekend right? I was more responding to Ghostguy making it seem like the Panthers had gotten lucky all season. Anyway, I looked at IRs and Clady and Sambrailo where the only ones, so LT is where they were hurt and are still down in the SB. Osweiler played well and beat the Patriots. He played well enough people figured Peyton might stay on the bench all season, but he got hurt. Ware missed a few games, but Charles Johnson missed even more and Kuechly also missed a few. I'd still say we've lost more positions (CB, slot CB, WR, DE) to IR and multiple games and now the SB.
Also, facing the Steelers & Brown without the starting safeties wasn't exactly as hard since Brown didn't actually play and Roethlisberger was hurt. Pretty sure having Tillman and Benwickere on IR against Seattle and Arizona was a much bigger deal since well their #1 WRs, who aren't Antonio Brown, actually played.
Relax man, still butt hurt over Calvin Johnson retiring? Have you actually watched any games aside from the Cardinals game? Have you seen how many wide open TDs and other passes Ginn and Brown have dropped? They haven't exactly had a great season. Ginn has had a way better season than expected, but he had 1-2 wide open long TD type plays every single week and probably converted on 50% of them. Not contested targets, but all you have to do is not drop it targets. He had 10 TDs on 44 receptions. He got open a ton, just didn't convert. He should have had 1000+ yards and 15TDs, not 44 receptions on 97 targets. Corey Brown was 31-447-4TDs and Cotchery 39-485-3TDs, unbelievable seasons.
This is like all the people thinking that Carolina is going to win by 20. It's like people watched one game against Arizona and figured that was the whole season. They combined for 5-44 against Seattle.
moleculo
Footballguy
I was talking regular season game vs Pittsburgh, where they scored 34. When those guys were there, Pittsburgh was held to 16 (no Antonio, obviously).
He doesn't have to throw it deep to be effective. With Sanders and Thomas a 5-10 yard curl can turn into a big play.
moleculo
Footballguy
1. Peyton Manning actually can throw. Coming into this game, he will have played in two games over the past 5 weeks, two and a half games since November 15th. He will be rested and in sync with his receivers. He entered the season not fully buying into the Kubiak system, played injured (foot thing apparently started in training camp), and things got worse until it finally went. Since then, he took 6 weeks to get healthy, and over that time he saw his back-up be successful in the system and he learned to buy in. Note: there was hardly any (if any)of that pistol nonsense in the 2 playoff games. Also of note, Manning has yet to throw an interception in the post-season.
2. I don't understand why people assume the Carolina O > Bronco D. Both squads are great, but I've been seeing a lot of folks assuming the Panthers will run all over the Broncos. I really don't get it. The bronco D wasn't #1 in the league in YPC vs the run by accident. This D is fast, talented, disciplined, and well coordinated. Wade changed his strategy up completely to play NE, why do people assume he won't change things up completely to face Carolina? If I were Wade, I'd play my typical 3-4 one-gap front, make sure Von and Ware's primary responsibilities are edge contain, and bring Ward into the box to play the run and stick with Olsen. Let Harris/Talib cover whomever is out wide, with Stewart playing center-field. In running plays, it's about gap responsibility, in passing plays it's about beating the man in front of you. But in general, you have got to read run first and maintain discipline.
3. Carolina has won because their offense has feasted off of turnovers fed by their defense. Denver has been giving away turnovers throughout the season like beads at Mardi gras. That's all true. However, Broncos have stopped that in the playoffs (with the lone turnover being a dropped lateral). IF the Broncos can continue with their new found recent ball-security and make the Panthers march 80 yards for a score, that will go a long ways towards getting the job done.
2. I don't understand why people assume the Carolina O > Bronco D. Both squads are great, but I've been seeing a lot of folks assuming the Panthers will run all over the Broncos. I really don't get it. The bronco D wasn't #1 in the league in YPC vs the run by accident. This D is fast, talented, disciplined, and well coordinated. Wade changed his strategy up completely to play NE, why do people assume he won't change things up completely to face Carolina? If I were Wade, I'd play my typical 3-4 one-gap front, make sure Von and Ware's primary responsibilities are edge contain, and bring Ward into the box to play the run and stick with Olsen. Let Harris/Talib cover whomever is out wide, with Stewart playing center-field. In running plays, it's about gap responsibility, in passing plays it's about beating the man in front of you. But in general, you have got to read run first and maintain discipline.
3. Carolina has won because their offense has feasted off of turnovers fed by their defense. Denver has been giving away turnovers throughout the season like beads at Mardi gras. That's all true. However, Broncos have stopped that in the playoffs (with the lone turnover being a dropped lateral). IF the Broncos can continue with their new found recent ball-security and make the Panthers march 80 yards for a score, that will go a long ways towards getting the job done.
Mr. Irrelevant
IBL Representative
Short answer: Even Vegas is saying that for every 10 times this game is played, Denver should win 3. It doesn't take a huge leap of faith to predict it.
Longer answer: For all the gaudy offensive stats Carolina's put up the past few weeks, their offensive line hasn't actually been that good this year. FO rates them 21st overall in pass protection and Cam's sack rate has been pretty high for a guy with his mobility. If Denver catches them napping with a well-timed blitz or two early, Cam could start hearing footsteps. Tom Brady is better at getting the ball out quickly than Newton (or anyone else in the NFL), and Denver still hit him 21 times! If Cam starts running scared instead of running by design, the Broncos' D is going to have a field day.
Manning's days of spearheading repeated 80-yard drives are over, but if their D gives them a few short fields, I don't doubt his ability to lead a few 7- or 8-play drives and find the end zone a couple of times. That wouldn't be enough if they had to lean on an average defense, but the Broncos aren't an average defense, and the Panthers aren't exactly the '07 Pats on O, either. I could easily see Denver winning a 20-14 or 23-20 slogfest.
Longer answer: For all the gaudy offensive stats Carolina's put up the past few weeks, their offensive line hasn't actually been that good this year. FO rates them 21st overall in pass protection and Cam's sack rate has been pretty high for a guy with his mobility. If Denver catches them napping with a well-timed blitz or two early, Cam could start hearing footsteps. Tom Brady is better at getting the ball out quickly than Newton (or anyone else in the NFL), and Denver still hit him 21 times! If Cam starts running scared instead of running by design, the Broncos' D is going to have a field day.
Manning's days of spearheading repeated 80-yard drives are over, but if their D gives them a few short fields, I don't doubt his ability to lead a few 7- or 8-play drives and find the end zone a couple of times. That wouldn't be enough if they had to lean on an average defense, but the Broncos aren't an average defense, and the Panthers aren't exactly the '07 Pats on O, either. I could easily see Denver winning a 20-14 or 23-20 slogfest.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
Two thirds of the money bet on the game so far has come in on Carolina, and Vegas ain't a bunch of dummies.
GROOT
Footballguy
I was looking at the Panthers schedule
http://www.nfl.com/schedules/2015/REG/PANTHERS
I never realized how weak it is
http://www.nfl.com/schedules/2015/REG/PANTHERS
I never realized how weak it is
moleculo
Footballguy
4. If Denver is down early (as most Panther opponents have been), don't count them out. This team will not fold. They have come back from 14 point second half deficits 3 times this season, and have been the living embodiment of "kicking and screaming." There have been occasions this season where Manning has shown he can still bring back his hurry up shotgun offense and get it done. This is not a John Fox team.
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moleculo
Footballguy
Going by pro-football-references's SoS, they played the weakest schedule of the past 5 years or so.
Old Smiley
Footballguy
I've kind of been saying that all year, but it's about as deep into the playoffs as you can go and they've still been handling teams.
I just wonder what will happen if they don't get the big jump.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
The last time the Panthers didn't play at home, they scored 13 points...against the Falcons defense.
moleculo
Footballguy
As I mentioned above, I think this is a close game. The 3 away games prior they scored 38, 41 and 33 and they beat the Falcons 38-0 two weeks before. That game was there worst game of the year. They have scored 27 or more points in every game since week 2 outside of that game. That was also the only game under 20 all year.I don't know if that loss really did focus them again but they've scored 118 points in 3 games since. It's going to be a fun game.
I am going to go with the intangible factor - Superbowl stress. It's going to hit Cam more than Manning and it's going to hit the Carolina defense more than the Bronco defense.
Cam is still about proving himself while Manning seems to have a calm/acceptance of the moment. Say what you want to say about him earlier in his career, but as cerebral as he has always been, Manning USED TO try to do too much and play outside of himself in the playoffs. That led to turnovers. That will not be the case this year.
In turn, this will impact the defensive sides of both teams. It will depend on your perspective, but if Cam struggles, Broncos defense will get its props and develop increasing confidence in the game. They will continue to do what they do and execute. Meanwhile, the Carolina defense feasts off of turnovers. They would destroy the old-Manning. But this Manning is going to frustrate Carolina and they will try to do too much - act outside of themselves and lose their execution.
Cam is still about proving himself while Manning seems to have a calm/acceptance of the moment. Say what you want to say about him earlier in his career, but as cerebral as he has always been, Manning USED TO try to do too much and play outside of himself in the playoffs. That led to turnovers. That will not be the case this year.
In turn, this will impact the defensive sides of both teams. It will depend on your perspective, but if Cam struggles, Broncos defense will get its props and develop increasing confidence in the game. They will continue to do what they do and execute. Meanwhile, the Carolina defense feasts off of turnovers. They would destroy the old-Manning. But this Manning is going to frustrate Carolina and they will try to do too much - act outside of themselves and lose their execution.
This. Defense wins championships and the Broncos have the leagues best defense with a HOF QB at the helm. Everyone is falling in love with what the Panthers did to the Cardinals.
Most of the 6 turnovers the Panthers had against the Cardinals were on ####### Carson Palmer. Not to say that Peyton doesn't turn the ball over himself but it's not close. There's a reason Peyton Manning has won 5 MVPs. He's good.
FUBAR
Footballguy
pretty much this. As I cheer for the Panthers, Peyton doesn't scare me in the least, but pre-2015 Cam showing up and getting frustrated could cost the Panthers the game.
Then again, I've been waiting all year for that to happen and it hasn't really happened yet (moments sure, but not for long).
ShamrockPride
Footballguy
Why are we acting like Cam throwing the ball is a good gameplan for the Denver D? Cam is an elite passer with a great arm and very good decision making. He can locate a pass anywhere on the field. The only times he makes a mistake is that he lacks touch sometimes and fires everything on a rope, which can lead to INTs. I can't really see a way in which Denver shuts Cam down tonight.
Team Smokin'
Footballguy
If DEN can slow down the past fast starts that CAR has been accustomed too, they hold them to more FG's than TD's, DEN can pull it off. If not, CAR could easily win by 10 or more.
Money is on CAR, the contrarian play is DEN and the points. I think it's a closer game than expected. Vegas says 26-20 CAR wins, and the money is going on CAR to cover. I predict a game within 4 points either way.
Money is on CAR, the contrarian play is DEN and the points. I think it's a closer game than expected. Vegas says 26-20 CAR wins, and the money is going on CAR to cover. I predict a game within 4 points either way.
DropKick
Footballguy
I think Manning has to be near perfect and Demaryius Thomas has to remember how to catch the ball. If Manning throws a couple picks, especially if it gives Carolina good field position, it could get ugly.
Things in Denver's favor? Experience - they're two years removed from a SB with a veteran QB. Never know how Newton will react. He could come out too hyped and air mail a pick 6 before he calms down. It's a big stage.
Denver's D is good - they get a score... a low to mid-scoring close game and I give the edge to Denver.
I hope the officials don't become a distraction. That is rare for the SB; the only exception I recall being Seattle/Pittsburgh.
And, hopefully, the game is free of major injury. Just last year people were calling the NFC Championship game the real SB. Seattle had a rash of injuries during the play-offs and then lost a defensive back (Lane) to a broken arm early in the SB.
Overall I think Vegas is pretty close giving Carolina a 70/30 edge. Personally, I'm thinking 65/35. Denver definitely has a shot here but, as always, things can change with a turnover, key call or injury.
Things in Denver's favor? Experience - they're two years removed from a SB with a veteran QB. Never know how Newton will react. He could come out too hyped and air mail a pick 6 before he calms down. It's a big stage.
Denver's D is good - they get a score... a low to mid-scoring close game and I give the edge to Denver.
I hope the officials don't become a distraction. That is rare for the SB; the only exception I recall being Seattle/Pittsburgh.
And, hopefully, the game is free of major injury. Just last year people were calling the NFC Championship game the real SB. Seattle had a rash of injuries during the play-offs and then lost a defensive back (Lane) to a broken arm early in the SB.
Overall I think Vegas is pretty close giving Carolina a 70/30 edge. Personally, I'm thinking 65/35. Denver definitely has a shot here but, as always, things can change with a turnover, key call or injury.
moleculo
Footballguy
Because Bronco CBs >>> Panther WRs, and Bronco edge rushers >>> Panther tackles.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
S'up?
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
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