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​ 🏛️ ​Official Supreme Court nomination thread - Amy Coney Barrett


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1 minute ago, timschochet said:

Let’s assume for a moment that the Kavanaugh supporters in this thread and elsewhere are correct and that this accusation is completely false; it never happened. 

If so, then there’s two ways for the Republicans to handle it: 

“Attempted rape is a serious accusation. We have strong doubts that it ever happened, but nonetheless we’re going to investigate because we want to be absolutely sure. (A week later). We’ve investigated and determined there’s nothing to this. We’re moving forward.”

or 

“Screw you. This is just partisan crap. It’s all lies. We don’t need to investigate; we know. Let’s push through this vote right now and anyone who doesn’t like it, too bad.” 

The Republicans are seemingly choosing the second approach. I don’t think it’s a wise choice, either politically or morally for that matter. I think they will regret it. 

Impossible endeavor. 

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16 minutes ago, parasaurolophus said:

A week or two? Lol. You sell out your true motivation. 

I’m happy you have a life where victims of sexual misconduct are nothing more than pawns in a game you can laugh at.  I don’t have that luxury.  I’m glad you don’t understand and empathize with victims well enough to get why it could take so long for a victim to come forward.  It’s a reality I wish I didn’t understand or have to deal with on a daily basis.

The point of mentioning any type of delay was because this is worth waiting on to sort this out.  If this letter turns out to be nothing, Kavanaugh will still get his 40 years on the Supreme Court.  It’s a decision that’s really hard to undo, and the seat is so important it’s worth some patience to get right.

And it’s not like this is the first blip on an otherwise sparkling career and character. It took three years and a negotiated deal to get Kavanaugh to the job he’s at now, and it turns out he lied under oath to get it.  In normal world, this would be enough cause for withdrawal from a SCOTUS nomination and potential removal from the bench.

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1 minute ago, parasaurolophus said:

I think you are focusing on the wrong thing. Sometimes people dont want to come forward, it happens. The more important point here is we are talking about a situation from forever ago when they were both 17 and probably both drinking( even though of course i dont think they have mentioned that she was drinking, but how could we know for sure all these years later). So many grey area possibilities here. Especially when one thing that is an almost absolute among people is that their account of a situation puts them in the best light. Memories also morph quite a bit over time. 

Oh and in addition we are getting a third hand account of these details.

By making a big deal of it and putting it in the news for 2 more weeks isnt a legit endeavor. It is literally impossible to get to the bottom of this. 

That's not really true.  We may not be able to get CSI-level certainty about the truth of this allegation, but there are things that we can draw inferences from that should make the allegation more credible or less credible.  

For example, the accuser identified a third party who at least witnessed the attempted rape and possibly participated in it.  If that person had come forward and said "Yep, I was there and that totally happened just like she described," that would definitely make the allegation a lot more believable.  Actually, though, that guy categorically denied this story.

Similarly, if the accuser told somebody about this attack contemporaneously, that would also be corroborating evidence.  It doesn't have to be a police report. Just a friend that who says "I wasn't at the party, but she seemed really shaken the next day, and when I asked her what was wrong she said that Brett tried to rape her."  So far we don't have any evidence that anything like that happened, but for all we know there may be something like that in the letter -- we haven't seen it.

If the accuser's therapist says (with permission obviously) that the accuser did actually talk about this attack in therapy 15 years ago, that would be mild corroborating evidence.  That still leaves a long gap and leaves open the possibility that the accuser is misremembering things, but it would clearly make her account at least a little more believable.

And of course, if other women come forward to say that they too were assaulted by Brett Kavanaugh, then the story becomes much more believable.  That may very well happen.  It hasn't yet, but it's too soon to expect that now. 

In other words, yeah, right now this is her word against theirs, but that doesn't mean that it's impossible to produce evidence that she's telling the truth.

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12 minutes ago, parasaurolophus said:

No it doesnt. He has referred to somebody as cosby. He has said minimizing this is the worst thing on the internet. He doesnt get to have his cake and eat it too. Dont be a sucker.

What? The Cosby thing is because someone keeps acting as of the length of time is relevant.

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15 minutes ago, parasaurolophus said:

No it doesnt. He has referred to somebody as cosby. He has said minimizing this is the worst thing on the internet. He doesnt get to have his cake and eat it too. Dont be a sucker.

I referred to “they didn’t come forward for 30 years” as a Cosby defense.  And yes, minimizing the allegations themselves - not the truth of them, but making fun of someone saying she had to fight off a rapist by saying it was attempted kissing - is the worst thing on the internet. 

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7 minutes ago, IvanKaramazov said:

That's not really true.  We may not be able to get CSI-level certainty about the truth of this allegation, but there are things that we can draw inferences from that should make the allegation more credible or less credible.  

For example, the accuser identified a third party who at least witnessed the attempted rape and possibly participated in it.  If that person had come forward and said "Yep, I was there and that totally happened just like she described," that would definitely make the allegation a lot more believable.  Actually, though, that guy categorically denied this story.

Similarly, if the accuser told somebody about this attack contemporaneously, that would also be corroborating evidence.  It doesn't have to be a police report. Just a friend that who says "I wasn't at the party, but she seemed really shaken the next day, and when I asked her what was wrong she said that Brett tried to rape her."  So far we don't have any evidence that anything like that happened, but for all we know there may be something like that in the letter -- we haven't seen it.

If the accuser's therapist says (with permission obviously) that the accuser did actually talk about this attack in therapy 15 years ago, that would be mild corroborating evidence.  That still leaves a long gap and leaves open the possibility that the accuser is misremembering things, but it would clearly make her account at least a little more believable.

And of course, if other women come forward to say that they too were assaulted by Brett Kavanaugh, then the story becomes much more believable.  That may very well happen.  It hasn't yet, but it's too soon to expect that now. 

In other words, yeah, right now this is her word against theirs, but that doesn't mean that it's impossible to produce evidence that she's telling the truth.

Do you have a link to where he categorically denied the story? The last one I saw was him saying he had no recollection of that happening. 

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2 minutes ago, Henry Ford said:

Do you have a link to where he categorically denied the story? The last one I saw was him saying he had no recollection of that happening. 

 

Quote

The Kavanaugh classmate quoted in the New Yorker is Mark Judge, a writer in Washington, D.C. Judge spoke to THE WEEKLY STANDARD Friday afternoon, strongly denying that any such incident ever occurred. "It's just absolutely nuts. I never saw Brett act that way," Judge told TWS.

Judge says he first learned he was named in the letter during an interview with the New Yorker. "[Ronan Farrow] said: As you know, you're named in the letter. And I did not know," he said.

The Kavanaugh classmate told TWS that the New Yorker did not provide him the name of the woman alleging wrongdoing, a specific date of the alleged incident, or the location where the incident is alleged to have occurred. The woman alleging misconduct has requested that her identity be protected, according to media reports.

After Judge categorically denied ever witnessing an attempted assault by Kavanaugh, I asked him if he could recall any sort of rough-housing with a female student back in high school (an incident that might have been interpreted differently by parties involved). "I can't. I can recall a lot of rough-housing with guys. It was an all-boys school, we would rough-house with each other," he said said. "I don't remember any of that stuff going on with girls."

Judge says he still does not know the name of the woman who made the allegations.

https://www.weeklystandard.com/john-mccormack/kavanaugh-classmate-named-in-letter-strongly-denies-allegations-of-misconduct

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36 minutes ago, timschochet said:

Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski have been awfully silent about this. If they announced that they can’t support this guy until this matter is resolved with an investigation, then there WILL be an investigation. But would they do this? 

The party would kick either of them out if they did.

This is why the party has been eating Trump’s #### for two years: getting a reliable conservative on the Supreme Court capable of serving for 40 years.  They aren’t letting lying under oath stop the proceedings.  Why would they let the word of some skirt who was a teenager and probably drunk and dressed like a slut and didn’t come forward for 30 years stop them?

Remember, after all the awful things Trump said about Ted Cruz, his wife, and his family during the campaign, Cruz was still on the phone banks making calls for Trump down the stretch because he knew what an opportunity this would be to control the judicial branch for a generation.  That’s how important this is for the party. 

Edited by Bruce Dickinson
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4 minutes ago, Ramblin Wreck said:

Oh. Okay, thanks. 

Sure.  I know it’s tough to really empathize with attempted rape victims and think that maybe from their perspectives the only way they can move forward with therapy and their lives when their attempted rapist is in the news is to finally tell someone with authority even though they don’t expect anything to come of it and that maybe, just maybe, it’s not all about the alleged rapist’s new job but more about her for once, but it’s an important perspective to consider in times like this in my opinion. 

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For the many reasons to hate McConnell and for the many more reasons why someone should hate McConnell... it is pretty telling when even McConnell attempted to persuade Trump from nominating Kavanaugh. For as despicable as McConnell is, he has to know something about Kavanaugh that we do not. Maybe this rape thing isn't what McConnell knows but the fact McConnell was not 100% for Kavanaugh is telling.

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It’s possible this woman is lying.  It’s possible she’s flat out crazy.  It’s possible she was drunk or high (on purpose or someone drugged her) and thought Kavanaugh did this and it was actually another person, it’s possible Kavanaugh did this.  There are many possibilities.  They should be looked into before someone is confirmed to the SCOTUS. 

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19 minutes ago, Henry Ford said:

Sure.  I know it’s tough to really empathize with attempted rape victims and think that maybe from their perspectives the only way they can move forward with therapy and their lives when their attempted rapist is in the news is to finally tell someone with authority even though they don’t expect anything to come of it and that maybe, just maybe, it’s not all about the alleged rapist’s new job but more about her for once, but it’s an important perspective to consider in times like this in my opinion. 

She is not a victim.  We have zero idea if any of the unknown events occurred. 

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27 minutes ago, Challenge Everything said:

For the many reasons to hate McConnell and for the many more reasons why someone should hate McConnell... it is pretty telling when even McConnell attempted to persuade Trump from nominating Kavanaugh. For as despicable as McConnell is, he has to know something about Kavanaugh that we do not. Maybe this rape thing isn't what McConnell knows but the fact McConnell was not 100% for Kavanaugh is telling.

Didn't know this, thanks

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3 minutes ago, rude classless thugs said:

How would you know that? What if there are contemporaneous accounts from family/acquaintances she told at the time? 

When something that collobrates something actually happened, then we can call her a victim.  Right now we have no idea if these two people ever even met.  

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1 minute ago, Megaton said:

When something that collobrates something actually happened, then we can call her a victim.  Right now we have no idea if these two people ever even met.  

She specifically named Kavenaugh plus his accomplice, How she could come with the second name and give a place and time where it alleged happened if they had never met?

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1 minute ago, rude classless thugs said:

She specifically named Kavenaugh plus his accomplice, How she could come with the second name and give a place and time where it alleged happened if they had never met?

Maybe she found an old Georgetown Prep yearbook in a thrift store. Who knows?

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2 minutes ago, rude classless thugs said:

Yes, I supposed that is possible, but seems unlikely.

It does.  Of course, twenty years ago I would have found it equally unlikely that the Republican Party would openly attack women accusing men of attempting to rape them, but here we are. 

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35 minutes ago, Henry Ford said:

It’s possible this woman is lying.  It’s possible she’s flat out crazy.  It’s possible she was drunk or high (on purpose or someone drugged her) and thought Kavanaugh did this and it was actually another person, it’s possible Kavanaugh did this.  There are many possibilities.  They should be looked into before someone is confirmed to the SCOTUS. 

I agree with this, with an emphasis on "looked into."  I can imagine a scenario in which this is all resolved in a 5-minute conversation with the woman involved:

Quote

 

Did anybody else witness this attack?  No.

Did you file a police report?  No.

Did you tell anybody else about the attack after it occurred?  No.

Thank you for time.

 

If it plays out like that, we're done and Kavanaugh gets confirmed.  Of course, if any of those questions gets a "yes," then things get a lot more complicated and we should slow this down.

 

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Just now, Henry Ford said:

It does.  Of course, twenty years ago I would have found it equally unlikely that the Republican Party would openly attack women accusing men of attempting to rape them, but here we are. 

Anita Hill down? Now, she only accused Thomas of sexual harassment but it would not seem a stretch to believe that if she had accused Thomas of attempted rape, that the attacks on her character by Republicans would have been any less.

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Just now, rude classless thugs said:

Anita Hill down? Now, she only accused Thomas of sexual harassment but it would not seem a stretch to believe that if she had accused Thomas of attempted rape, that the attacks on her character by Republicans would have been any less.

If she had accused him of attempted rape, I believe that the Republican Party would have shut up.  But I may just be naive. 

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2 minutes ago, IvanKaramazov said:

I agree with this, with an emphasis on "looked into."  I can imagine a scenario in which this is all resolved in a 5-minute conversation with the woman involved:

If it plays out like that, we're done and Kavanaugh gets confirmed.  Of course, if any of those questions gets a "yes," then things get a lot more complicated and we should slow this down.

 

Does “I’ve been talking to psychologists about this for 20+ years” work for telling someone else?

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4 minutes ago, Henry Ford said:

It does.  Of course, twenty years ago I would have found it equally unlikely that the Republican Party would openly attack women accusing men of attempting to rape them, but here we are. 

Absolutely.  Twenty years ago we only expected the Democratic Party to play so dirty.  

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1 minute ago, IvanKaramazov said:

My ingroup has always taken accusations of sexual misconduct seriously and given survivors the respect and support they deserve.  But that wicked outgroup is always attacking women and downplaying sexual assault.  

I’ll be honest, it’s always been my impression that (historically) the Republican Party as a unit did take physical sexual assault very seriously. Not all members, but that “we will keep you safe” mindset was on of the attractive qualities of the party for conservative female voters.  I don’t believe that’s the case anymore. 

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1 hour ago, timschochet said:

You could be right. But I think you have to try anyhow. It’s a lifetime appointment. 

So...appointing him should be a lifetime endeavor?

The list of unsupported allegations is endless....The Left started at the top with a "metoo" allegation....which has ensnared those on the Left by the drove...the only place to go from here... is down.

Edited by Opie
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6 minutes ago, Megaton said:

Absolutely.  Twenty years ago we only expected the Democratic Party to play so dirty.  

Yeah, Dennis Hastert was a true Republican leader. One that even to this day Rs look up to.

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6 minutes ago, sho nuff said:

Yes they are.  First you claim that she isn’t a victim...the claim we don’t know what happened.

 

We don't even know what the claim is or if there is anything which collaborates it.  I would not even refer to her as an alledged victim until we know some details and have something that collaborates that some event took place between the two.  

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5 minutes ago, Megaton said:

We don't even know what the claim is or if there is anything which collaborates it.  I would not even refer to her as an alledged victim until we know some details and have something that collaborates that some event took place between the two.  

But you definitively claimed she wasn’t a victim.  You are doing what you are complaining everyone else is doing.

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10 minutes ago, Megaton said:

Yeah, Republican Al Gore should be ashamed for bring up the whole furlogh issue against Dukakis.  

Al Gore ran a campaign ad against Dukakis featuring Willie Horton?

Some fact checking reveals:

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/chatterbox/1999/11/did_gore_hatch_horton.html

In reviewing this history, it's important to make some crucial distinctions. Gore never mentioned that Horton was black; indeed, he never mentioned Horton by name. He merely drew attention, correctly, to the damaging fact that Dukakis had tolerated a furlough program for especially violent criminals in his state even after a horrific incident strongly suggested this was a bad policy. It's conceivable, of course, that Gore was warming up for more explicit and racially tinged use of Horton's story later in the primary fight. But that would have been uncharacteristic of him. In any event, Gore dropped out of the race shortly after the debate.

Now recall what the Republicans did with Horton's story: An "independent expenditure" group aired an ad for Bush showing a picture of Horton. A Republican fund-raising letter in Maryland showed pictures of Dukakis and Horton alongside the following text: "Is this your pro-family team for 1988?" Horton told Playboy magazine in 1989 that a woman who identified herself as working for "an organization affiliated with the Bush campaign" phoned him and wrote letters to him up in prison trying to get him to endorse Dukakis. The official Bush campaign, of course, kept its distance from such efforts, and claimed to use Horton only in race-neutral ways. But there is plenty of evidence that it was heartily appreciative of the racial subtext. In his book about the 1988 campaign, Pledging Allegiance, Blumenthal quotes an anonymous member of the Bush campaign team as saying, "Willie Horton has star quality. Willie's going to be politically furloughed to terrorize again. It's a wonderful mix of liberalism and a big black rapist." Although Bush's campaign manager, Lee Atwater, always insisted publicly that for the Bush campaign Horton was never a racial symbol, Atwater slipped in a speech he gave to southern Republicans right before that year's Democratic convention:

Edited by rude classless thugs
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  • Clayton Gray changed the title to ***Official Supreme Court nomination thread: Welcome New Justice

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