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Official Michael Thomas, WR NO: Didn't help you make the playoffs, but hopefully can help you win them


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They move Thomas around.  I think they may actually throw the ball more in this game.  I don't know why or how you would sit Thomas in the playoffs in a high scoring game like this

Ah yes, like the hot/crazy curve for dating. 😋

Oh please his last three weeks were 5/89, 7/87/1, and 8/89/1

Just now, Ilov80s said:

Not according to their 40 times. 

Saw that after I wrote it.  I just view MT as a better WR then Colston.  What are your thoughts?

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8 minutes ago, stlrams said:

Saw that after I wrote it.  I just view MT as a better WR then Colston.  What are your thoughts?

I think peoples perceptions (including myself until I recently looked closer) of Colston are wrong. Colston was a much better athlete, prospect and player than people gave him credit for. He was kind of a freak. 6-5. 225 lbs.  37 inch vert and 4.50 forty. His best comparable player according to playerprofiler.com is Mike Evans. Thomas is a smaller, slower, less explosive version of Colston. I know Thomas was at a loaded tOSU program, but he didn't break out until the rather late age of 21.5. Typically elite WRs breakout at a younger age. I like Thomas, but it's easy to fall into the hole of thinking a rookie will always improve. That just isn't always the case. 

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7 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

I think peoples perceptions (including myself until I recently looked closer) of Colston are wrong. Colston was a much better athlete, prospect and player than people gave him credit for. He was kind of a freak. 6-5. 225 lbs.  37 inch vert and 4.50 forty. His best comparable player according to playerprofiler.com is Mike Evans. Thomas is a smaller, slower, less explosive version of Colston. I know Thomas was at a loaded tOSU program, but he didn't break out until the rather late age of 21.5. Typically elite WRs breakout at a younger age. I like Thomas, but it's easy to fall into the hole of thinking a rookie will always improve. That just isn't always the case. 

My projections show only a modest increase in production for MT which are primarily based in B Cooks no longer with team and not a dramatic improvement in play.  I suspect MT will garner more targets, 

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1 minute ago, stlrams said:

My projections show only a modest increase in production for MT which are primarily based in B Cooks no longer with team and not a dramatic improvement in play.  I suspect MT will garner more targets, 

He may get more targets with Cooks gone. He is such a different WR than Cooks though so I have a little tougher time just penciling him in for targets that had gone to Cooks. Also, did the presence and speed of Cooks help Thomas? Could Thomas struggle to be a focal point of the passing game? I don't have answers to these questions so I tend to be conservative and use the decade long history of the Brees/Peyton offense to help me find a reasonable projection. 

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2 hours ago, Ilov80s said:

That is projecting him to catch less passes and put up 200 more yards. That is a 3.0 yards per reception improvement. It seems outside the likely outcomes. 

Pedantry aside, I am just trying to illustrate that projecting a CEILING of his rookie production is silly. 1200 yards is not his ceiling.

I actually do not disagree with most of the points you are making about him, except when you say that he cannot reasonably improve on his rookie numbers. I'm paraphrasing there (trying to cut off further pedantry) , but when you conflate "ceiling" with "anything can happen", then we must not be talking about the same concept.

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5 minutes ago, Lott's Fingertip said:

Pedantry aside, I am just trying to illustrate that projecting a CEILING of his rookie production is silly. 1200 yards is not his ceiling.

I actually do not disagree with most of the points you are making about him, except when you say that he cannot reasonably improve on his rookie numbers. I'm paraphrasing there (trying to cut off further pedantry) , but when you conflate "ceiling" with "anything can happen", then we must not be talking about the same concept.

He had 1100 and 9 last year. 1200 and 12 would be a sizeable jump. For standard, that is from 164 to 192: an increase in scoring by 17%. 

 

I do not conflate ceiling with anything can happen. I am the person doing the opposite and giving a reasonable increase. The ceiling=anything can happen crowd are the people speculating about him putting up Odell Beckham type numbers. 

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It's shocking to me that Colston ran a 4.5. Maybe he just aged really fast, but the guy looked like he was lumbering along out there. Slightly faster than a tight end. Speed usually shows up very clearly on TV. He never once looked fast to me.

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10 minutes ago, JuniorNB said:

It's shocking to me that Colston ran a 4.5. Maybe he just aged really fast, but the guy looked like he was lumbering along out there. Slightly faster than a tight end. Speed usually shows up very clearly on TV. He never once looked fast to me.

He had knee issues early in his career right?  Could be that those knee issues sapped some of his 4.5 speed early. 

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5 minutes ago, Boone22 said:

He had knee issues early in his career right?  Could be that those knee issues sapped some of his 4.5 speed early. 

A brief search and the first mention I see of a knee injury is at age 30.

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12 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

A brief search and the first mention I see of a knee injury is at age 30.

He was drafted in 2006. Here's an article from 2010 that mentioned arthroscopic surgery and a history of knee issues...

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2010/12/30/marques-colston-gets-surprise-surgery/

And here's another from 2011 that mentions him coming off microfracture surgery...

http://blogs.nfl.com/2011/08/10/three-and-out-colstons-knee-a-concern/

And here's one from 2009 from FBGs.  It mentions arthroscopic in 2008 and microfracture in 2009...

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2009/09colstoninjury.php

 

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46 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

He had 1100 and 9 last year. 1200 and 12 would be a sizeable jump. For standard, that is from 164 to 192: an increase in scoring by 17%. 

 

I do not conflate ceiling with anything can happen. I am the person doing the opposite and giving a reasonable increase. The ceiling=anything can happen crowd are the people speculating about him putting up Odell Beckham type numbers. 

He had a 16 game pace of 1213 yards and 9.6 TDs. For standard, going to 1200/12 would be going from 178.9 to 192, an increase in scoring of 7.3%. 

Is it possible for him to get those 12 TDs while increasing his yards per game from about 76 to about 82? Is that not a "reasonable increase"? Because that takes his "ceiling" projection to 1312/12...

Regarding conflating ceiling with anything can happen, you said the following in response to the ceiling comments: 

Quote

Well of course, Mushin Muhammad proved almost anything is possible. Pierre Garçon could have 1600 yards. Devante Parker could catch 18 TDs. Anything can happen.

Quote

Obviously, anything can happen. Jeremy Maclin could set the NFL record for receptions, Sammie Coates could have a 4 TD game

*shrug*

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3 minutes ago, Lott's Fingertip said:

He had a 16 game pace of 1213 yards and 9.6 TDs. For standard, going to 1200/12 would be going from 178.9 to 192, an increase in scoring of 7.3%. 

Is it possible for him to get those 12 TDs while increasing his yards per game from about 76 to about 82? Is that not a "reasonable increase"? Because that takes his "ceiling" projection to 1312/12...

That is very fair IMO. I probably didn't account for the 1 missed game as well as I should have. Also, when I say 1200, I mean in the 1200s- so I should clarify that. 

3 minutes ago, Lott's Fingertip said:

Regarding conflating ceiling with anything can happen, you said the following in response to the ceiling comments: 

*shrug*

My comments about anything can happen were in response to people complaining my ceiling projection was too low. I was conceding that ofcourse anything is possible but I want to have a logical and statistically reasonable ceiling. I did not want to just say, "he will do better than last year, best passing offense in the NFL, more targets without Cooks so sky is the limit." 

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18 minutes ago, Lott's Fingertip said:

He had a 16 game pace of 1213 yards and 9.6 TDs. For standard, going to 1200/12 would be going from 178.9 to 192, an increase in scoring of 7.3%. 

I probably didn't account for his 1 missed game so your projection is fair. Also, when I say 1200, I mean in the 1200s. 

18 minutes ago, Lott's Fingertip said:

Is it possible for him to get those 12 TDs while increasing his yards per game from about 76 to about 82? Is that not a "reasonable increase"? Because that takes his "ceiling" projection to 1312/12...

Regarding conflating ceiling with anything can happen, you said the following in response to the ceiling comments: 

*shrug*

My comments here were in response to posters questioning why my ceiling was low. I am trying to have a reasonable, statistically sound projection and not just  into the obvious narrative hype of more targets without Cooks, 2nd year improvement, high powered offense. For me anything beyond the 1200 and 12 is getting into the highly improbable range.

 

How many rookie WRs even improve in year 2? Obviously the Treadwells and Colemans should show improvement but what about the guys that have starting quality seasons as real rookies?

OBJ? Declined

Evans? Declined

Benjamin? Declined

JMatt? Improved 

Sammy? Improved 

Amari? Improved 

Hilton? Same

Colston? Improved 

Julio? Declined 

Cooks? Improved

Tampa Mike Williams? Declined 

Moss? Declined 

Fitzgerald? Improved 

Nicks? Improved 

Bowe? Improved 

Michael Clayton? Declined 

It seems just as likely that MT's numbers improve as it does they decline. 

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Fair enough.

I am not projecting Thomas to improve (for all the reasons you lay out), I think he will end up around where he did in 2016. But I can absolutely concede that his CEILING is noticeably higher than my expectation... just that I only give him a 15-20% chance of approaching that ceiling. IMO, saying that is much different than saying Maclin can set the NFL record for receptions. ;-)

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23 minutes ago, Lott's Fingertip said:

Fair enough.

I am not projecting Thomas to improve (for all the reasons you lay out), I think he will end up around where he did in 2016. But I can absolutely concede that his CEILING is noticeably higher than my expectation... just that I only give him a 15-20% chance of approaching that ceiling. IMO, saying that is much different than saying Maclin can set the NFL record for receptions. ;-)

If you are willing to push the ceiling like that, aren't we almost also forced to concede his floor is a lot lower than anyone wants to say. 

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5 hours ago, Ilov80s said:

I think peoples perceptions (including myself until I recently looked closer) of Colston are wrong. Colston was a much better athlete, prospect and player than people gave him credit for. He was kind of a freak. 6-5. 225 lbs.  37 inch vert and 4.50 forty. His best comparable player according to playerprofiler.com is Mike Evans. Thomas is a smaller, slower, less explosive version of Colston. I know Thomas was at a loaded tOSU program, but he didn't break out until the rather late age of 21.5. Typically elite WRs breakout at a younger age. I like Thomas, but it's easy to fall into the hole of thinking a rookie will always improve. That just isn't always the case. 

That's on tOSU's spread offense, coaching staff, and Miller/Barret, not Thomas.  He was a freak from the getgo.

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6 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

That's on tOSU's spread offense, coaching staff, and Miller/Barret, not Thomas.  He was a freak from the getgo.

By from the getgo, you mean his 4th year of college, 3rd year at tOSU and at the age of 21?

 

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2 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

No, because if I did that's what I would have said.

After HS, he went to military school. Then went to tOSU and had 3 catches for 22 yards. Then he was redshirted the next year. So I don't see how he was a freak until age 21 and in his 4th year of college.

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2 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

After HS, he went to military school. Then went to tOSU and had 3 catches for 22 yards. Then he was redshirted the next year. So I don't see how he was a freak until age 21 and in his 4th year of college.

That's because you are looking at text on paper stat lines and not the football player on the field.   I live here, I watched practices, scrimmages, games.  I saw an extremely talented player from the getgo. 

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1 minute ago, Hankmoody said:

That's because you are looking at text on paper stat lines and not the football player on the field.   I live here, I watched practices, scrimmages, games.  I saw an extremely talented player from the getgo. 

Then why did he get a non injury redshirt at age 20? That's a major red flag.

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1 minute ago, Ilov80s said:

Then why did he get a non injury redshirt at age 20? That's a major red flag.

You are gonna have to ask the guy that made that decision.  I can think of many plausible speculations though:

It was the first year Meyer had his first full recruit cycle in and wanted to get them reps.  A number of players transferred or got lost in the coaching change.

What makes you think it was non-injury?  I may have missed the post where they went over his medical records in detail.

Whoever made the decision simply got it wrong.  It might have been his first mistake ever in his life but I doubt it. 

Other players looked equally good to the coaching staff at the time and Thomas was just the one they picked. 

Whoever made the decision felt sorry for TTUN and wanted to give them a chance.

 

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18 minutes ago, grateful zed said:

this guy is dyno gold, an argument could be made for #1 rank.

I was thinking the total opposite. That's what is fun about dynasty, there's a much wider range of opinions on players. I'm a dynasty novice so I'm prolly wrong here, but I'd sell now as a Thomas owner. 

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46 minutes ago, grateful zed said:

this guy is dyno gold, an argument could be made for #1 rank.

He has everything you want in the #1 overall dyno WR. Targets, QB, talent and the offense in a bad defensive division that will throw a lot, as they have always done for the past 10 years. 

26 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

I was thinking the total opposite. That's what is fun about dynasty, there's a much wider range of opinions on players. I'm a dynasty novice so I'm prolly wrong here, but I'd sell now as a Thomas owner. 

Thats whats great about fantasy, people will always proven wrong...yet somehow try to explain away how wrong they are with excuses after the fact solidifying that their opinions shouldnt be valued. 

Anyone who talks against this kid in fantasy has not been paying attention to the Saints #1 target option in this offense and their opinion should not be valued whatsoever. Thats whats great, about fantasy, I have opinions about your bad opinions. :P

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4 minutes ago, Mavis said:

He has everything you want in the #1 overall dyno WR. Targets, QB, talent and the offense in a bad defensive division that will throw a lot, as always has done for the past 10 years. 

Thats whats great about fantasy, people will always proven wrong...yet somehow try to explain away how wrong they are with excuses after the fact solidifying that their opinions shouldnt be valued. 

Anyone who talks against this kid in fantasy has not been paying attention to the Saints #1 target option in this offense and their opinion should not be valued whatsoever. Thats whats great, about fantasy, I have opinions about your bad opinions. 

I think I laid out a very solid reason people are overshooting Thomas. Also this great offense is dependent on a 38 year old QB. 

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2 minutes ago, Mavis said:

He has everything you want in the #1 overall dyno WR. Targets, QB, talent and the offense in a bad defensive division that will throw a lot, as always has done for the past 10 years. 

Thats whats great about fantasy, people will always proven wrong...yet somehow try to explain away how wrong they are with excuses after the fact solidifying that their opinions shouldnt be valued. 

Anyone who talks against this kid in fantasy has not been paying attention to the Saints #1 target option in this offense and their opinion should not be valued whatsoever. Thats whats great, about fantasy, I have opinions about your bad opinions. 

I think I laid out a very solid reason people are overshooting Thomas. Now throw in this great offense is dependent on a 38 year old QB. 

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4 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

I think I laid out a very solid reason people are overshooting Thomas. Now throw in this great offense is dependent on a 38 year old QB. 

I disagree, 38 year old QB huh, thats what you are going with? His points this year matter to his career as a dyno player as well. How old is OBJs, Antonio Browns, Gronks QB?

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Thomas as #1 in dynasty? Are you guys high? How long do you expect Drew Brees to be Drew Brees?

####, I'm a Brees owner and I'm afraid the wheels are going to fall off the wagon this season let alone when he's 39 and 40.

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12 minutes ago, Mavis said:

I disagree, 38 year old QB huh, thats what you are going with? His points this year matter to his career as a dyno player as well. How old is OBJs, Antonio Browns, Gronks QB?

My argument is laid out over the last few pages here. It's all out there. 

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My problem with Thomas is that a ton of people are calling him a top 10 Dynasty WR after ONE year of production.  I'm not saying he can't get there but for those of you paying top 5 or top 10 prices right now...after one year...  you may want to remember a WR named Michael Clayton.

if Thomas can show some consistency and do it again this year I'll gladly change my tune. But I can't see paying what some people are paying right now with only one year on his resume. 

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24 minutes ago, Boone22 said:

My problem with Thomas is that a ton of people are calling him a top 10 Dynasty WR after ONE year of production.  I'm not saying he can't get there but for those of you paying top 5 or top 10 prices right now...after one year...  you may want to remember a WR named Michael Clayton.

if Thomas can show some consistency and do it again this year I'll gladly change my tune. But I can't see paying what some people are paying right now with only one year on his resume. 

While this is true, you may also want to remember a guy named Odell Beckham, Randy Moss, even Mike Evans had 1200 yards his sophomore year.  While there are examples of great rookies who fell off in year 2, there are also examples of rookies who didn't fall off in year 2.

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18 minutes ago, Boone22 said:

My problem with Thomas is that a ton of people are calling him a top 10 Dynasty WR after ONE year of production.  I'm not saying he can't get there but for those of you paying top 5 or top 10 prices right now...after one year...  you may want to remember a WR named Michael Clayton.

if Thomas can show some consistency and do it again this year I'll gladly change my tune. But I can't see paying what some people are paying right now with only one year on his resume. 

Which receivers would you put ahead of him?  Brown, obj, Julio, Evans, green, Cooper, and let's throw in Hilton and dez if you want.   And we'll forget that Cooper hasn't had a year as good as Thomas did last year, or that people anointed him the next big thing after less NFL production than Thomas showed.  That's 8.

Now give me two more.   Hopkins and Robinson?  How many years of top production do they have?  Jordy? He's getting close to the end.  Baldwin?  He has a year and a half of top production, but it was after 4 years of not so good production, and Thomas actually outscored him this year, and is 6 years younger.  Keenan Allen and Watkins have more injury history then production.  Cooks?  Not much more production than Thomas and he just moved to a different team with an older qb because the saints liked Thomas better.  Davante?  One year.  Landry?  

 

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11 minutes ago, bostonfred said:

Which receivers would you put ahead of him?  Brown, obj, Julio, Evans, green, Cooper, and let's throw in Hilton and dez if you want.   And we'll forget that Cooper hasn't had a year as good as Thomas did last year, or that people anointed him the next big thing after less NFL production than Thomas showed.  That's 8.

Now give me two more.   Hopkins and Robinson?  How many years of top production do they have?  Jordy? He's getting close to the end.  Baldwin?  He has a year and a half of top production, but it was after 4 years of not so good production, and Thomas actually outscored him this year, and is 6 years younger.  Keenan Allen and Watkins have more injury history then production.  Cooks?  Not much more production than Thomas and he just moved to a different team with an older qb because the saints liked Thomas better.  Davante?  One year.  Landry?  

 

Off the top of my head?

Brown, OBJ, Julio, Evans, Green, Cooper, Hilton, Dez, Demaryius, Hopkins, Cooks, and Baldwin. I'd consider Jordy if I was in win now mode. 

Im not saying Thomas isn't talented and that he's definitely not a top 10 WR. Hell if he has another season like he did as a rookie this year, I'll gladly put him top 10.  But those people saying he's already top 5 and paying those prices are going overboard. 

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1 hour ago, Eminence said:

Thomas as #1 in dynasty? Are you guys high? How long do you expect Drew Brees to be Drew Brees?

####, I'm a Brees owner and I'm afraid the wheels are going to fall off the wagon this season let alone when he's 39 and 40.

yes, when all is said and done and people look back on his career, who knows?

he is off to a great start and if he repeats, or better, this year, look out hof.

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1 hour ago, Eminence said:

Thomas as #1 in dynasty? Are you guys high? How long do you expect Drew Brees to be Drew Brees?

####, I'm a Brees owner and I'm afraid the wheels are going to fall off the wagon this season let alone when he's 39 and 40.

Aren't you the guy touting Brandon Cooks?  You know Brady is a year & a half older than Brees & Brees had just as good a year as Brady did in 2016, right? Why is it high to expect Thomas to be a #1 WR, but not for Cooks?

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12 minutes ago, Bayhawks said:

Aren't you the guy touting Brandon Cooks?  You know Brady is a year & a half older than Brees & Brees had just as good a year as Brady did in 2016, right? Why is it high to expect Thomas to be a #1 WR, but not for Cooks?

We're talking about #1 Dynasty, broski.

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1 hour ago, Boone22 said:

My problem with Thomas is that a ton of people are calling him a top 10 Dynasty WR after ONE year of production.  I'm not saying he can't get there but for those of you paying top 5 or top 10 prices right now...after one year...  you may want to remember a WR named Michael Clayton.

if Thomas can show some consistency and do it again this year I'll gladly change my tune. But I can't see paying what some people are paying right now with only one year on his resume. 

Complete list of players with 1000+ receiving yards as a rookie during the past 20 years: Anquan Boldin, Randy Moss, Odell Beckham, Michael Clayton, Michael Thomas, Amari Cooper, AJ Green, Mike Evans, Keenan Allen, Marques Colston, Kelvin Benjamin.

Looks like a pretty nice list to be on: 6 stars, 4 too soon to tell, 1 bust.

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11 minutes ago, ZWK said:

Complete list of players with 1000+ receiving yards as a rookie during the past 20 years: Anquan Boldin, Randy Moss, Odell Beckham, Michael Clayton, Michael Thomas, Amari Cooper, AJ Green, Mike Evans, Keenan Allen, Marques Colston, Kelvin Benjamin.

Looks like a pretty nice list to be on: 6 stars, 4 too soon to tell, 1 bust.

Agreed. All I'm saying is that the price I'm seeing some of these folks paying now is the same price they'd pay next year IF Thomas continues his success. Why not just wait and see if he does before paying a premium?

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16 minutes ago, ZWK said:

Complete list of players with 1000+ receiving yards as a rookie during the past 20 years: Anquan Boldin, Randy Moss, Odell Beckham, Michael Clayton, Michael Thomas, Amari Cooper, AJ Green, Mike Evans, Keenan Allen, Marques Colston, Kelvin Benjamin.

Looks like a pretty nice list to be on: 6 stars, 4 too soon to tell, 1 bust.

Who is the 6th star? 

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23 minutes ago, Boone22 said:

Agreed. All I'm saying is that the price I'm seeing some of these folks paying now is the same price they'd pay next year IF Thomas continues his success. Why not just wait and see if he does before paying a premium?

Perhaps they believe he will do it again this year & they'd like to have that success occur on their FF roster?

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7 minutes ago, Bayhawks said:

Yeah;  two years of Thomas with prime Brees> than 1 year of Cooks with prime Brady, broski.

I don't get it. I never commented on where I have either of them ranked in Dynasty. All I suggested was that Thomas wasn't my #1.

 

I'd rather have Julio Jones and Odell Beckham Jr to name a few.

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20 minutes ago, Boone22 said:

Agreed. All I'm saying is that the price I'm seeing some of these folks paying now is the same price they'd pay next year IF Thomas continues his success. Why not just wait and see if he does before paying a premium?

If Thomas had been in the NFL for 2 seasons and both years were as good as last year, then I think he'd generally be seen as #3 dynasty WR, behind only Beckham & Evans. There are a lot of good options after Beckham & Evans but they all have some warts - it seems like there are about 10 other guys who have a plausible case for being in the top 6 WRs, but none who look as good as the fictional Michael Thomas with a 2 year track record.

As it is, Thomas is typically going around WR 7 or 8, near the middle of that pack of 10 guys.

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3 hours ago, Boone22 said:

My problem with Thomas is that a ton of people are calling him a top 10 Dynasty WR after ONE year of production.  I'm not saying he can't get there but for those of you paying top 5 or top 10 prices right now...after one year...  you may want to remember a WR named Michael Clayton.

I don't think Thomas ends up like Michael Clayton or Mike Williams (TB), who are guys known for partying their way out of the NFL, because he has Uncle Keyshawn in his ear telling him what it takes to be a great NFL player.  He already knows the next level of dedication it takes in working out and eating right and living right that it takes some guys years to figure out (Devante Parker?) if they ever do.  It's tough to even make the top 10 wrs, let alone stay there for more than a year or two.  Most guys take 2-3 years of flashing potential before they get there.   Thomas hit the ground running and got it done year 1.  If he does it again, he'll be nearly untouchable in leagues.  He could regress some and still be in that untouchable range.

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