Jump to content
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

WR Michael Thomas, NO


Recommended Posts

4 hours ago, Shawnky said:

No need to be condescending.  He isn’t 30. He had a high ankle sprain. The coaches were happy with how he responded to his benching.  Winston is 1 season removed from a 5000 yd season.  I’ll gladly buy from anyone trying to sell.  I’m back to playing dynasty from a 10+ year hiatus.  People really seem to sour on players more quickly than in the past. 
 

eta:   Thomas is 1 season removed from a record setting season.  He hasn’t fallen off any cliff here.  

I’d say he hasn’t necessarily fallen off a cliff physically but he’s teetering circumstantially

  • Laughing 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, JetMaxx said:

Thomas is a volume guy who IMO was highly dependent upon a HOF QB that lost his fastball and needed a volume short to intermediate target. 

6 games with Teddy starting or playing most of the game in 2019.  22.33 fantasy points a game.

4 games with Taysom Hill starting in 2020. 16 fantasy points a game but one game was the Denver no QB fiasco they took the air out of the ball and of course on a bad ankle.

10 game total average with Teddy and worst passing QB since Tebow. 19.78 which for context would have put him at WR4 last year.

I've seen enough to so say not only is he not at all dependent on Brees but I would label him the most QB proof WR in the game today.

14 minutes ago, JetMaxx said:

I’d say he hasn’t necessarily fallen off a cliff physically but he’s teetering circumstantially

28 is generally right in range of prime years for most WR's, he's had one fairly significant injury his entire career and had before that had missed a grand total of one game in his career.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, JetMaxx said:

I’d say he hasn’t necessarily fallen off a cliff physically but he’s teetering circumstantially

That’s definitely an opinion and I don’t share it.  Seems to me he’s in his prime. 

Edited by Shawnky
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, Shawnky said:

eta:   Thomas is 1 season removed from a record setting season.  He hasn’t fallen off any cliff here.  

I highly doubt he’ll get within 20% of his peak numbers ever again in his career, and his current valuation reflects that. 

If you think otherwise, now’s a fantastic time to buy. 

Edited by tangfoot
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Shawnky said:

That’s definitely an opinion and I don’t share it.  Seems to me he’s in his prime. 

@menobrownGentlemen’s wager. He’ll never again surpass his rookie numbers 92/1137/9

Edited by JetMaxx
  • Laughing 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, JetMaxx said:

@menobrownGentlemen’s wager. He’ll never again surpass his rookie numbers 92/1137/9

I'll take your money.  It's easy to see who took him early last year and haven't gotten over an injury that players can't come back from.  I admittedly am a Saints fan, but I'm sitting next to an Eagles fan  and a Cowboys fan who laughed at your statement.  So a WR1 who is in a Sean Payton offense won't surpass those #'s?  You're delusional.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 hours ago, tangfoot said:

I highly doubt he’ll get within 20% of his peak numbers ever again in his career, and his current valuation reflects that. 

If you think otherwise, now’s a fantastic time to buy. 

You realize 20% of his peak numbers is still like 110-115 catches?

  • Like 1
  • Laughing 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted (edited)

i may be way off, but for now I have his ceiling at 90 catches. Expecting 70-80. 

his game sans brees needs to be evaluated more

ive no doubt he'll see more "big plays" but don't see the 100+ slant catches that brees provided

 

Edited by Soulfly3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Soulfly3 said:

i may be way off, but for now I have his ceiling at 90 catches. Expecting 70-80. 

his game sans brees needs to be evaluated more

ive no doubt he'll see more "big plays" but don't see the 100+ slant catches that brees provided

 

I'm a little torn too. My concern is that I think the Saints are going to be a BAD football team.

So there should be a lot of catch up and all that. But he's the kind of guy I can see quitting on his team.

 

But on the other hand, who else is going to get the ball? Alvin Kamara, sure. But after that? Seems like Thomas is locked for 8+ targets a game.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Saints Offense will run through what's proven to work best regardless of QB - 1-2 punch of Kamara/Murray, while they figure out the rotation/splits, etc., between Winston/Hill. Of course, Thomas will get his fair share of targets, but I'd bet dollars to donuts the guy most folks are going to be happy to roster, outside of the RB's, from that passing game, is Adam Trautman, in terms of value vs ADP. I think that guy is going to absorb a massive amount of targets.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, tombonneau said:

You realize 20% of his peak numbers is still like 110-115 catches?

He will likely never eclipse 110 catches again. 100 is in play

Edited by tangfoot
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 5/31/2021 at 11:07 PM, grateful zed said:

I'm not sure what the numbers will look like, but he is a fantasy wide receiver one for the next 3 to 4 years, in my book.

Exactly this. People are way overthinking it. Will MT repeat his NFL record season? No. Guys don't tend to do that. But he'll still be catching 100-115 balls for the next few years and be at worst a low-tier WR1.

People are acting like he's gonna have Kendall Hinton at QB. A HOF QB is not a prerequisite for a 100+ catch season. Hell, last year A-Rob did it in Chicago.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, Soulfly3 said:

Jameis has never had a 100 rec WR in his career.

Came close w Evans, but alas... Never produced one, himself.

Evans was WR1 in FF 2016, Godwin WR2 in 2019, and a Evans had a couple other top 8s. I seem to recall the popular FF for Jameis was always “dude locks on one guy all day.”

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Alex P Keaton said:

IMO it all hinges on who starts at QB for the Saints.   Jameis = top 10 WR for MT.   Taysom = Much lower spot for MT.

I've never been so sure about a FF debate in my life: Jameis will be the starter and Taysom will be the same gimmick he was with Brees. Jameis is going to put up shocking numbers this season and Thomas will be a top 5 receiver. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Alex P Keaton said:

IMO it all hinges on who starts at QB for the Saints.   Jameis = top 10 WR for MT.   Taysom = Much lower spot for MT.

I wouldn’t be worried if Hill started. In the 4 games Hill started last season, Thomas had 30 catches and 343 yards. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted (edited)
Quote

MICHAEL THOMAS WR, NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

The Athletic's Larry Holder reports Jameis Winston's inaccuracy on slant routes could be a "problem" for Michael Thomas. 

Holder, in deep dive on Winston's strengths and weaknesses as Tampa's starting quarterback, pointed out his catchable pass percentage on slant routes plunged from 80 percent in 2018 to 61.1 percent in 2019. Winston's completion rate on slant routes dropped from 68 percent in 2018 to a miserable 52.8 percent in 2019. Thomas, of course, is known as a slant route maven, making a career out of catching quick slants from Drew Brees. It's fair to ask whether Thomas' 2021 fantasy prospects would improve with Taysom Hill starting for New Orleans after Thomas dominated targets in Hill's 2020 starts. Hill completed an impressive 72.8 percent of his attempts in 2020. 

RELATED: 

Jameis Winston

, Taysom Hill

SOURCE: The Athletic 

Jun 2, 2021, 11:20 AM ET

 

 

Edited by Faust
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...
Quote

Saints coach Sean Payton said it's been "so far, so good" with Michael Thomas' ankle this offseason.

Thomas' ankle limited him to seven games last season. It is unclear if he ever actually underwent surgery, which was reported as "likely" in late January. “We still monitor it, pay attention to it, scan it, and all those things," Payton said of his star wideout's foot. "He’s getting treatment and doing the things necessary. So, so far, so good.” In addition to his health, Thomas has the even bigger question of who he will be catching passes from in 2021. He still sports top-three upside at receiver, but the downside is more palpable than it has been in recent years. 

SOURCE: Profootballtalk on NBCSports.com

Jun 10, 2021, 6:35 PM ET

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 1 month later...

[Rapoport] Sources: #Saints star WR Michael Thomas is expected to miss the start of the 2021 season after undergoing surgery to repair the ligaments in his ankle in June. Based on the timing of the surgery – and recommended 4 months of recovery – Thomas could be on the sideline for weeks.

 

This all stems from the original injury in September that robbed #Saints WR Michael Thomas of most of his 2020. It simply never recovered.

 

https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/1418578278697390083

Edited by zeeshan2
  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I know it's easy to say this from the peanut gallery, but how the heck did they not figure out surgery was needed before June for an injury from September??

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is insane.  

Feels like a gigantic snowball to derail what has been a brilliant career.  Record Breaking season followed by injury, lose your hall of fame QB, surgery to make you miss a bunch of the next season.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, jtd13 said:

I know it's easy to say this from the peanut gallery, but how the heck did they not figure out surgery was needed before June for an injury from September??

And this after just watching the latest 'Audible' episode with Dr. Jene Bramel stating how good things were looking for him after participating in their minicamp. There HAS to be lot of key timeline info being withheld here. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, -jb- said:

FFS. Thought he was a steal in the third, and part of a number of strategies I may have deployed. 

Same, if he's not returning until 4 months as devastating an injury as I've had early on, been loading up on him.

I've also been heavy on Kamara and Trautman on idea Jameis was going to win the job and part of my confidence in that was Payton was smart enough to not waste talents of Thomas and Kamara with a QB who can't throw. I'm a lot less sure now, with limited weapons a QB like Taysom starts making more sense.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, menobrown said:

Same, if he's not returning until 4 months as devastating an injury as I've had early on, been loading up on him.

I've also been heavy on Kamara and Trautman on idea Jameis was going to win the job and part of my confidence in that was Payton was smart enough to not waste talents of Thomas and Kamara with a QB who can't throw. I'm a lot less sure now, with limited weapons a QB like Taysom starts making more sense.

Not to go off on a tangent but I feel like Ian Book is worth a roster spot in Dynasty if you have one...just have this feeling that Payton is gonna want to show he is a QB whisperer and Book is his pupil.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, -jb- said:

How does this affect the likes of Kamara and 🐠 man?

Great for Kamara's target share, as long as Hill isn't the QB. I beli eve Kamara had more receiving yards than rushing yards while Thomas was out last year.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Rig24 said:

So, what are we talking about, missing all of Sept, back in Oct? 

Feels/reads like mid October, and I could see it dragging a bit after that. He may be effectively off my board as someone else will overpay. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ouch, came really close to acquiring him in  multiple leagues. Actually did in another but flipped him plus a move back in the rookie draft for Lamb.

Even reading back thru Faust’s updates, all reports were he was looking fine back in June, now it turns out he had surgery then and we’re just finding out about it? Something smells fishy.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, -jb- said:

FFS. Thought he was a steal in the third, and part of a number of strategies I may have deployed. 

Loved Akers in the 2nd and Thomas in the 3rd/4th. If I held drafts in July, I'd probably own one or both and be super upset.

I do wonder if Thomas being out, makes them more likely to go with Taysom Hill at QB. Seems like a run based ball control offense, might have a better success rate.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

40 minutes ago, travdogg said:

Loved Akers in the 2nd and Thomas in the 3rd/4th. If I held drafts in July, I'd probably own one or both and be super upset.

I do wonder if Thomas being out, makes them more likely to go with Taysom Hill at QB. Seems like a run based ball control offense, might have a better success rate.

Give you two guesses which two players I have on my dynasty team....this week has not been kind at all

  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, cap'n grunge said:

All aboard the Trequan train.

Choo-choo!!!

I may be wrong here, but I think its more likely they add somebody else, than TreQuan suddenly becomes the #1. It seemed like he was in danger of falling behind Deonte Harris late last season.

I think there are a few WR's who could be acquired via trade, without breaking the bank such as:

Christian Kirk, Cole Beasley, Tim Patrick, Randall Cobb, Darius Slayton, Jamison Crowder,(or maybe even Denzel Mims) or James Washington.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I’ve been burned a few times by waiting on guys to come off IR / PUP. Enough that I probably will forego any shares of MT or Jeff Wilson.

And we thought last year was cray cray for Thomas. Weird timing, hope he gets healthy, but I’m out this year for redraft.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, BobbyLayne said:

I’ve been burned a few times by waiting on guys to come off IR / PUP. Enough that I probably will forego any shares of MT or Jeff Wilson.

And we thought last year was cray cray for Thomas. Weird timing, hope he gets healthy, but I’m out this year for redraft.

I think it depends where Thomas falls for me. If he's there at the end of drafts, he's still on my radar for sure. I mean, I'll take him as a WR5 for sure. Maybe as a WR4 even. I'd take him over Trequan Smith, and probably over any of the rookies other than Chase, and maybe Smith. I have him in the Samuel(both Curtis and Deebo) range right now. 

Wilson shouldn't be drafted, but he was looking at being the RB3 on the 49ers anyway, where as Thomas will instantly be the #1 again whenever he gets back. 

I think perhaps you've just had bad luck on variance. I've usually ended up pretty happy waiting on injured guys, as long as I didn't pay a high price for them. If Thomas is there in the 9th/10th, he's gonna be a tough pass, unless his we get some really grim updates between now and drafts.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, travdogg said:

I think perhaps you've just had bad luck on variance.

ETA: Just a flesh wound I can still fight

My 12 team redraft last year (full PPR) started MT-Julio-Godwin-Carson-Sutton. Grabbed Campbell & Jarwin on the back end of an 18 rounder. I think I’m even forgetting a couple others ended the season on IR, FABB was gone by Week 9. Hardest I’ve ever worked to make the playoffs lol.

Edited by BobbyLayne
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 5/30/2021 at 9:40 PM, JetMaxx said:

@menobrownGentlemen’s wager. He’ll never again surpass his rookie numbers 92/1137/9

 

On 5/31/2021 at 2:31 AM, Shawnky said:

I'll take your money.  It's easy to see who took him early last year and haven't gotten over an injury that players can't come back from.  I admittedly am a Saints fan, but I'm sitting next to an Eagles fan  and a Cowboys fan who laughed at your statement.  So a WR1 who is in a Sean Payton offense won't surpass those #'s?  You're delusional.

🍿

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Joe Bryant changed the title to WR Michael Thomas, NO

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
  • Create New...