Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
WR Michael Thomas, NO (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Mr. Irrelevant
- Start date
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
Mike's going to get a bump. I do think Cooks' targets will shift to the backfield largely.
bostonfred
Footballguy
This is a good and important question.
It actually might not be that different.
Brees rarely has one receiver get over 20% of his targets. A new qb would likely be less efficient, but also zone in on their top target more, so there's good news and bad news with life after brees.
If you believe Thomas is an elite talent - ave that's a big if - then a league average qb could actually improve Thomas's numbers. It's pretty simple math
Target's with brees x efficiency with brees
vs
Targets with league average qb x efficiency with league average qb
If you believe brees is just making a good receiver look great, then you'd expect Thomas's efficiency after brees to go down, and the saints might decide they need a new receiver, so even if his targets go up a little, they wouldn't overcome the loss of efficiency with brees.
So how do you quantify his efficiency? Well, one answer is catch percentage. Thomas caught 92 of 121 targets as a rookie. That's just over 75%. The league's most targeted receivers - Antonio Brown, obj, Evans, Hilton, jordy, Edelman, Fitzgerald, Julio - none of them broke 70%. Doug Baldwin did, catching 94 of 125 for almost the exact same percentage. It would be unusual for Thomas to repeat the feat although it does happen. Baldwin caught 78 of 103 in 2015.
For comparison, Cooks caught 78 of 117 - exactly 2/3 - which is high for a deep threat. Snead caught 72 of 104, which is almost exactly 70%. So a lot of that is brees, but Thomas looks like the most efficient player on the team.
92 catches for 1137 yards is a little over 12 yards per catch. Among those top receivers i named earlier, that rates pretty well - lower than Julio, higher than Edelman and close to Antonio Brown.
The next question is whether brees made Thomas look better than he is. The big knock on Thomas going into the draft was that Ohio State didn't use him that much, although when he did, he looked good. That's why he lasted into the second round when Coleman, Treadwell, Fuller and Doctson all went late first. It seems like he's answered the lack of production questions. His draft profile pegs him as a possible wr1 with flaws to land him in the second or third, which he did http://www.nfl.com/draft/2016/profiles/michael-thomas?id=2555347
A good comp player might be Demaryius Thomas. You get a couple years of potentially elite production with an elite qb, then he remains a good player but not as good. If the saints get a simian level qb after brees, the same may be true for Michael Thomas. But Michael Thomas just turned 24, and D Thomas was 28 when manning retired. So even if he ends up with a sub par qb after brees, you might get a second wind, like Larry Fitzgerald when the cards finally got Carson Palmer.
Overall, I think you look at him as a few stud years with a good chance, but no guarantee, to put up continued quality numbers after brees.
Now let's do obj.
ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
I feel the same way. Wouldn't be surprised if he put up 1,400+/10+, at the same time could see 800/5. No idea what to think about him.
What do you mean "what does this even mean"?
I'm projecting him to play a similar role and produce similar stats to Marques Colston who played in this same offense.
1,100+ yards / 8 - 10 Touchdowns
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
You think that if he's healthy that he realistically could go for an 800/5 season? How do you reach the conclusion that his floor is so low
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
Ilov80s
Footballguy
1200/12 would be better than any Saints WR since Joe Horn in 2004 so I do think it is possible. Even though Thomas went to the big program and was thus drafted higher, he compares pretty interestingly to Colston. Advantages for Colston: Size, arm length, speed, burst, breakout age. Advantages for Thomas: relative college production, agility. I think since Colston was a 7th round pick, we lose sight of the type of athlete he was. If Colston had attended Missouri as it seemed he originally was set to do, it is very possible he ends up as a 1st or 2nd round pick. Instead Colston attended Hofstra, a small school with a pretty anemic passing offense and to add to it, he missed his junior year with a shoulder injury.
In conclusion, I think Thomas has a ceiling to slightly exceed Colston but I think many people are miscalculating the difference in talent between Thomas and Colston.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
Thanks for the explanation. I'm going to disagree until I see that cap on Thomas. I get the feeling that while he is definitely not that once-in-a-generation WR that he can be a top 8 WR in multiple seasons.
CowboysHomer
Footballguy
As a Thomas dynasty owner, based on trade offers over the last month, I'd say there's a lot of interest in him. At the same time, all the offers have sucked.
Aznflyer14
Footballguy
You are not the only one... Nearly half of league offered 2019's 1st round pick alone in return for Michael Thomas. Mind you, I have Thomas in my 12 teams PPR dynasty league with salary cap and contract and Thomas has a very cap-friendly contract, which is locked for 3 years. Apparently, not everyone paid attention the trade market value that was established recently on trade for Julio Jones (compensation was a multiple of future 1st round in 2019, 2020, and 2021, Doug Martin, and Paul Perkins).
Lott's Fingertip
Footballguy
He had 1137 and 9 TDs in 15 games as a rookie, that is 1213 yards and 9.6 TDs over 16 games... to say 1200/12 is his "absolute best case" is simply silly. There is nothing wrong with projecting him for less, but you have to consider that it would not be crazy to see him improve as a sophomore... which means his CEILING is certainly higher than what he has already accomplished as a rookie.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Well of course, Mushin Muhammad proved almost anything is possible. Pierre Garçon could have 1600 yards. Devante Parker could catch 18 TDs. Anything can happen. However, I don't see anything in the Saints or Michael Thomas outlooks to say better than a 1200/12 season should be expected. For standard, that's 12 ppg. That's what AJ Green and TY Hilton were averaging last year. It's a big season. There aren't many WRs in the league that can be thought to have a ceiling beyond that. You think Michael Thomas is about to be the next Julio or AB?
need2know
Footballguy
I don't necessarily think Thomas is going to put up 1200/12, but no one really thought AB was gonna be AB, until he WAS AB. He was a nice 2nd WR to Mike Wallace, who was a big play type WR1 in Pitt, but he wanted more money than Pitt was willing to give, so they gave it to Brown & moved on from Wallace. Then, when AB became THE MAN, he starts putting up numbers that no one expected.
Browns situation is similar to what Thomas finds himself in, so while I'm not predicting the kind of leap Brown took, it wouldn't be unprecedented.
ZWK
Footballguy
Jimmy Graham averaged 90/1116/11.7 on 140 targets per 16 games in his 4 seasons in NO (excluding his rookie year). Marques Colston averaged 83/1160/9.1 on 129 targets per 16 games in his first 7 seasons (and then declined at age 30). Michael Thomas was on a 16-game pace of 98/1213/9.6 on 129 targets as a rookie. So something like 90/1150/10 seems like a plausible 16-game projection for Thomas if we assume that he'll be in that same neighborhood this year. With significant upside above that, since 1) Thomas has the potential to be more of a traditional go-to WR1, while Graham & Colston were more like big slot guys, 2) Thomas is going into his 2nd season, and many receivers continue to improve over their first few years, and 3) New Orleans lost Cooks and has a lot of question marks in its receiving corps so they could rely on their WR1 more than they used to.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
I'm on record above with agreeing with you for the most part, even though I'm not sure his ceiling isn't higher than you believe.
That being said, what do you see as being his traits that would hold him back from becoming an elite WR?
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Obviously, anything can happen. Jeremy Maclin could set the NFL record for receptions, Sammie Coates could have a 4 TD game, Kevin White could have a 100 yard game. I am asking, do you think Michael Thomas looks like he could be a top 5 WR?
Ilov80s
Footballguy
He's a B or B- athlete (relatively speaking obviously) and is on a team that has the most consistent offense in fantasy football. A consistent offense normally would be seen as a total positive. However, in this case it is also a negative. We have over a decade of seeing this offense not have a wide receiver get the targets to be elite. So we have an offense that doesn't produce elite WR targets and a pretty good WR prospect. I don't see anything elite about this.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Yes, top 5 is possible. The best argument for him putting up better numbers than any receiver they've ever had is he might be the best receiver they've ever had. In terms of draft pedigree, he's the second highest pick they've used on a receiver since brees arrived, and they traded away the highest because they liked Thomas more. Thomas just had a historic rookie season - he might just be the next big thing.
I do agree that he's unlikely to break into the 1500 yard tier, but everyone is unlikely to break into that tier or to return there once they do it. He also has a really high floor for his age. I'm not sure i understand the argument here - is he gong ahead of other 1500 yard receivers?
I do agree that he's unlikely to break into the 1500 yard tier, but everyone is unlikely to break into that tier or to return there once they do it. He also has a really high floor for his age. I'm not sure i understand the argument here - is he gong ahead of other 1500 yard receivers?
Do I think that a 2nd-year WR who was WR7 (in ppg) as a rookie, who should see a larger target share b/c he's now the WR1, and has Drew Brees as his QB can improve to a top-5 WR? Sure, it's possible. It would be foolish to suggest it was impossible.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Keep in mind last year was the WR recession. The bubble burst. Recent history shows that MT's 17.3 ppg is normally a WR12-16 type finish. It just happens that last year WR scoring was surprisingly low so his 17.3 looked a little better than it usually does.
ZWK
Footballguy
This is another reason to think that Michael Thomas has upside. He was one of the best WRs in the NFL at getting open, according to Matt Harmon's charting. He was above average at every route type, and my take on Harmon's numbers puts him behind only Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham, and Julio Jones at getting open.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
Before someone jumps to the conclusion that I am comparing Thomas to these 3, the point I'm trying to make is that I put a lot more stock in guys who know how to get open than I do in athleticism. Thomas looks like one of those kinds of guys. But only time will tell.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I agree. Production is more important that any particular athletic trait. You just asked for reasons why he might not be elite.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
And it wasn't my intent to trap you. I was curious about your perspective. I always like getting different opinions.
Lott's Fingertip
Footballguy
Again, regarding his CEILING... how can a person say his CEILING is what he did as a rookie? That is completely illogical.
When we project a player, we look at a range of reasonable possibilities. We don't say a player's floor is zero because he could get hurt, we project for a full season. By the same token, we don't talk about a ceiling as an "anything can happen" event that is unlikely, like Jeremy Maclin setting the NFL record for receptions... we are talking about a projection that takes into account things breaking a player's way more often than average, modified for talent and situation.
So, again, there is nothing wrong with projecting M.Thomas to produce around what he did last season as his most likely outcome, projecting 1100/8 is not controversial.
Also not controversial: projecting a WR's CEILING as an improvement on his rookie season. 90/1350/12 would be a very reasonable CEILING. That is not a pie in the sky ceiling, that is not an everything breaks absolutely perfectly ceiling... that is about a 10% improvement on his rookie season.
When we project a player, we look at a range of reasonable possibilities. We don't say a player's floor is zero because he could get hurt, we project for a full season. By the same token, we don't talk about a ceiling as an "anything can happen" event that is unlikely, like Jeremy Maclin setting the NFL record for receptions... we are talking about a projection that takes into account things breaking a player's way more often than average, modified for talent and situation.
So, again, there is nothing wrong with projecting M.Thomas to produce around what he did last season as his most likely outcome, projecting 1100/8 is not controversial.
Also not controversial: projecting a WR's CEILING as an improvement on his rookie season. 90/1350/12 would be a very reasonable CEILING. That is not a pie in the sky ceiling, that is not an everything breaks absolutely perfectly ceiling... that is about a 10% improvement on his rookie season.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
That is projecting him to catch less passes and put up 200 more yards. That is a 3.0 yards per reception improvement. It seems outside the likely outcomes.
abbottjamesr
Footballguy
Just for perspective when looking at ceiling for Saints pass catchers:
Most receptions in a season since 2010 - 99
Most receiving yards in a season since 2010 - 1310
Most receiving TDs in a season since 2010 - 16
I would say a good projection for MT is 95 - 1240 - 10
Realistic Ceiling would be 105 - 1350 - 14
Realistic Floor would be 75 - 1000 - 5
Most receptions in a season since 2010 - 99
Most receiving yards in a season since 2010 - 1310
Most receiving TDs in a season since 2010 - 16
I would say a good projection for MT is 95 - 1240 - 10
Realistic Ceiling would be 105 - 1350 - 14
Realistic Floor would be 75 - 1000 - 5
Ilov80s
Footballguy
He is a better WR then Colston plus less mouths to feed now then when Colston played..
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Saw that after I wrote it. I just view MT as a better WR then Colston. What are your thoughts?
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I think peoples perceptions (including myself until I recently looked closer) of Colston are wrong. Colston was a much better athlete, prospect and player than people gave him credit for. He was kind of a freak. 6-5. 225 lbs. 37 inch vert and 4.50 forty. His best comparable player according to playerprofiler.com is Mike Evans. Thomas is a smaller, slower, less explosive version of Colston. I know Thomas was at a loaded tOSU program, but he didn't break out until the rather late age of 21.5. Typically elite WRs breakout at a younger age. I like Thomas, but it's easy to fall into the hole of thinking a rookie will always improve. That just isn't always the case.
Last edited by a moderator:
My projections show only a modest increase in production for MT which are primarily based in B Cooks no longer with team and not a dramatic improvement in play. I suspect MT will garner more targets,
